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Navarro Calls Medical Experts ‘Tone Deaf’ Over Coronavirus Shutdown Navarro Calls Medical Experts ‘Tone Deaf’ Over Coronavirus Shutdown
(about 20 hours later)
WASHINGTON — As the White House debates when and how to reopen the economy, one emerging argument is that an extended shutdown could pose a more dire long-term health threat to the United States than the coronavirus itself.WASHINGTON — As the White House debates when and how to reopen the economy, one emerging argument is that an extended shutdown could pose a more dire long-term health threat to the United States than the coronavirus itself.
Peter Navarro, the White House trade adviser who is now coordinating the country’s medical supply chain, is warning that a prolonged shutdown of nonessential commerce could result in a broad range of negative health effects that he contends medical experts are ignoring in their efforts to flatten the curve of coronavirus cases.Peter Navarro, the White House trade adviser who is now coordinating the country’s medical supply chain, is warning that a prolonged shutdown of nonessential commerce could result in a broad range of negative health effects that he contends medical experts are ignoring in their efforts to flatten the curve of coronavirus cases.
“It’s disappointing that so many of the medical experts and pundits pontificating in the press appear tone deaf to the very significant losses of life and blows to American families that may result from an extended economic shutdown,” Mr. Navarro said in an interview with The New York Times.“It’s disappointing that so many of the medical experts and pundits pontificating in the press appear tone deaf to the very significant losses of life and blows to American families that may result from an extended economic shutdown,” Mr. Navarro said in an interview with The New York Times.
“Instead, they piously preen on their soap boxes speaking only half of the medical truth without reference or regard for the other half of the equation,” he said, “which is the very real mortal dangers associated with the closure of the economy for an extended period.”“Instead, they piously preen on their soap boxes speaking only half of the medical truth without reference or regard for the other half of the equation,” he said, “which is the very real mortal dangers associated with the closure of the economy for an extended period.”
Mr. Navarro was one of the first among President Trump’s advisers to warn about the economic costs of a pandemic. In memos that he wrote in January and February that circulated in the West Wing, Mr. Navarro warned that the coronavirus was a crisis that could inflict trillions of dollars in economic damage and take millions of lives.Mr. Navarro was one of the first among President Trump’s advisers to warn about the economic costs of a pandemic. In memos that he wrote in January and February that circulated in the West Wing, Mr. Navarro warned that the coronavirus was a crisis that could inflict trillions of dollars in economic damage and take millions of lives.
Mr. Trump has been criticized for being slow to heed such warnings. The president’s economic advisers have clashed in recent weeks with his health experts over how to balance containing the virus and mitigating the economic fallout. Mr. Navarro, a protectionist who has been known to engage in heated debates with the free traders in the administration, has had contentious exchanges with Dr. Anthony Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, whose pronouncements about the measures needed to slow the spread of the virus have begun to frustrate Mr. Trump’s allies.Mr. Trump has been criticized for being slow to heed such warnings. The president’s economic advisers have clashed in recent weeks with his health experts over how to balance containing the virus and mitigating the economic fallout. Mr. Navarro, a protectionist who has been known to engage in heated debates with the free traders in the administration, has had contentious exchanges with Dr. Anthony Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, whose pronouncements about the measures needed to slow the spread of the virus have begun to frustrate Mr. Trump’s allies.
As the economy faces a deep recession and more than 16 million American workers have already lost jobs, Mr. Trump is deliberating when to call for an easing of the shutdown. The president, who had hoped to reopen the economy by Easter, has lamented that the “cure cannot be worse than the problem itself.”As the economy faces a deep recession and more than 16 million American workers have already lost jobs, Mr. Trump is deliberating when to call for an easing of the shutdown. The president, who had hoped to reopen the economy by Easter, has lamented that the “cure cannot be worse than the problem itself.”
In a tweet on Monday, Mr. Trump said a decision on when to reopen the economy “will be made shortly!”In a tweet on Monday, Mr. Trump said a decision on when to reopen the economy “will be made shortly!”
Mr. Navarro has said he believes that if the shutdown persists for too long, the cumulative health effects over time could be worse than those from the virus, which health experts have estimated could cause anywhere from 100,000 to 2 million deaths, depending on mitigation efforts.Mr. Navarro has said he believes that if the shutdown persists for too long, the cumulative health effects over time could be worse than those from the virus, which health experts have estimated could cause anywhere from 100,000 to 2 million deaths, depending on mitigation efforts.
He said the U.S. economy faced a “China shock” that could eclipse what it experienced in the early 2000s, after China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. Mr. Navarro points to the research of David H. Autor, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist whose 2017 paper found a relationship between the surge of Chinese exports to the United States two decades ago with lost American manufacturing jobs and a variety of grim health outcomes.He said the U.S. economy faced a “China shock” that could eclipse what it experienced in the early 2000s, after China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. Mr. Navarro points to the research of David H. Autor, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist whose 2017 paper found a relationship between the surge of Chinese exports to the United States two decades ago with lost American manufacturing jobs and a variety of grim health outcomes.
“The unfair China trade shock that hit so many of America’s communities in the 2000s not only destroyed over five million manufacturing jobs and 70,000 factories; it killed tens of thousands of Americans,” Mr. Navarro said.“The unfair China trade shock that hit so many of America’s communities in the 2000s not only destroyed over five million manufacturing jobs and 70,000 factories; it killed tens of thousands of Americans,” Mr. Navarro said.
“As numerous academic studies have documented, economic shocks like China’s trade shock can increase mortality rates associated with suicide, drug overdoses, alcohol poisoning, liver disease, lung cancer, poor diet and cigarettes,” he said, “while destroying families through higher rates of single-parent households, child poverty, and divorce and lower rates of fertility and marriage.”“As numerous academic studies have documented, economic shocks like China’s trade shock can increase mortality rates associated with suicide, drug overdoses, alcohol poisoning, liver disease, lung cancer, poor diet and cigarettes,” he said, “while destroying families through higher rates of single-parent households, child poverty, and divorce and lower rates of fertility and marriage.”
The virus has already inflicted severe damage to both the U.S. and global economy. Goldman Sachs economists project that the unemployment rate could hit 15 percent by midyear, and that the economy will contract by 34 percent in the second quarter. The sluggish initial response from the United States could prove advantageous for China, which took swift and draconian measures to contain the virus after it emerged in Wuhan last year, potentially allowing the Chinese economy to rebound more quickly.The virus has already inflicted severe damage to both the U.S. and global economy. Goldman Sachs economists project that the unemployment rate could hit 15 percent by midyear, and that the economy will contract by 34 percent in the second quarter. The sluggish initial response from the United States could prove advantageous for China, which took swift and draconian measures to contain the virus after it emerged in Wuhan last year, potentially allowing the Chinese economy to rebound more quickly.
While scientists continue to work on a vaccine, Mr. Navarro said the economy could still reopen without one. Expansive testing for the virus, as well as testing for antibodies that indicate who might have immunity and can return to work, will be key to reopening the economy, he said.While scientists continue to work on a vaccine, Mr. Navarro said the economy could still reopen without one. Expansive testing for the virus, as well as testing for antibodies that indicate who might have immunity and can return to work, will be key to reopening the economy, he said.
Updated June 5, 2020Updated June 5, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
Despite the development of new rapid tests, the ability to conduct nationwide testing for the virus or for antibodies and the ability to conduct large-scale contact tracing remains a longer-term goal.Despite the development of new rapid tests, the ability to conduct nationwide testing for the virus or for antibodies and the ability to conduct large-scale contact tracing remains a longer-term goal.
Mr. Trump’s advisers have been targeting early May for a gradual reopening of the economy that would focus on regions where the virus is less concentrated and could ramp up as testing capacity increases. However, reopening the economy too soon poses other unpredictable risks. If a second wave of the virus occurs, the economy would most likely have to be shuttered again, meaning even more severe economic pain.Mr. Trump’s advisers have been targeting early May for a gradual reopening of the economy that would focus on regions where the virus is less concentrated and could ramp up as testing capacity increases. However, reopening the economy too soon poses other unpredictable risks. If a second wave of the virus occurs, the economy would most likely have to be shuttered again, meaning even more severe economic pain.
In fact, Mr. Autor, the economist whose work Mr. Navarro cited, expressed precisely that concern.In fact, Mr. Autor, the economist whose work Mr. Navarro cited, expressed precisely that concern.
“We do find that prolonged economic distress contributes to increased male mortality, but we fear that Peter Navarro is drawing the wrong conclusion,” he said in an email.“We do find that prolonged economic distress contributes to increased male mortality, but we fear that Peter Navarro is drawing the wrong conclusion,” he said in an email.
“Continued economic disruption from repeated pandemic shocks and the associated economic uncertainty — which is likely what opening the economy too soon would deliver — seems more likely to deliver higher despair-induced mortality than the V-shaped recession we are hoping to engineer by stemming the pandemic now.”“Continued economic disruption from repeated pandemic shocks and the associated economic uncertainty — which is likely what opening the economy too soon would deliver — seems more likely to deliver higher despair-induced mortality than the V-shaped recession we are hoping to engineer by stemming the pandemic now.”
Ana Swanson contributed reportingAna Swanson contributed reporting