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| In World’s Most Vulnerable Countries, the Pandemic Rivals the 2008 Crisis | In World’s Most Vulnerable Countries, the Pandemic Rivals the 2008 Crisis |
| (3 days later) | |
| In New Delhi, a fruit vendor whose sales have dropped by half now dilutes the milk she serves to her five children. In central Turkey, a company that runs hot air balloon rides for tourists has banished its 49 employees to indefinite leave while cutting their wages by half. | In New Delhi, a fruit vendor whose sales have dropped by half now dilutes the milk she serves to her five children. In central Turkey, a company that runs hot air balloon rides for tourists has banished its 49 employees to indefinite leave while cutting their wages by half. |
| In Manila, a bartender for an international cruise line finds himself marooned at home, wondering if his savings will last until his ship returns to sea. In Johannesburg, a mother who makes her living braiding hair goes home empty-handed. | In Manila, a bartender for an international cruise line finds himself marooned at home, wondering if his savings will last until his ship returns to sea. In Johannesburg, a mother who makes her living braiding hair goes home empty-handed. |
| And in Buenos Aires, a cabdriver prowls deserted streets for fares, fearful that he will contract the coronavirus, yet more afraid of losing his taxi to repossession. | And in Buenos Aires, a cabdriver prowls deserted streets for fares, fearful that he will contract the coronavirus, yet more afraid of losing his taxi to repossession. |
| “I don’t know what I’m going to do,” he said. “This situation is larger than me.” | “I don’t know what I’m going to do,” he said. “This situation is larger than me.” |
| As the coronavirus pandemic brings the global economy to an astonishing halt, the world’s most vulnerable countries are suffering intensifying harm. Businesses faced with the disappearance of sales are laying off workers. Households short of income are skimping on food. International investment is fleeing so-called emerging markets at a pace not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008, diminishing the value of currencies and forcing people to pay more for imported goods like food and fuel. | As the coronavirus pandemic brings the global economy to an astonishing halt, the world’s most vulnerable countries are suffering intensifying harm. Businesses faced with the disappearance of sales are laying off workers. Households short of income are skimping on food. International investment is fleeing so-called emerging markets at a pace not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008, diminishing the value of currencies and forcing people to pay more for imported goods like food and fuel. |
| “This will be as bad, or potentially even worse, than the global financial crisis for emerging markets,” said Per Hammarlund, chief emerging markets strategist at SEB Group, a global investment bank based in Stockholm. “It is grim.” | “This will be as bad, or potentially even worse, than the global financial crisis for emerging markets,” said Per Hammarlund, chief emerging markets strategist at SEB Group, a global investment bank based in Stockholm. “It is grim.” |
| It is also a threat to global fortunes. Emerging markets account for 60 percent of the world economy on the basis of purchasing power, according to the International Monetary Fund. A slowdown in developing countries is a slowdown for the planet. | It is also a threat to global fortunes. Emerging markets account for 60 percent of the world economy on the basis of purchasing power, according to the International Monetary Fund. A slowdown in developing countries is a slowdown for the planet. |
| From South Asia to Africa to Latin America, the pandemic is confronting developing countries with a public health emergency combined with an economic crisis, each exacerbating the other. The same forces are playing out in wealthy nations, too. But in poor countries — where billions of people live in proximity to calamity even in the best of times — the dangers are amplified. | From South Asia to Africa to Latin America, the pandemic is confronting developing countries with a public health emergency combined with an economic crisis, each exacerbating the other. The same forces are playing out in wealthy nations, too. But in poor countries — where billions of people live in proximity to calamity even in the best of times — the dangers are amplified. |
| It is unfolding just as many governments are burdened by debt that limits their ability to help those in need. Since 2007, total public and private debt in emerging markets has multiplied from about 70 percent of annual economic output to 165 percent, according to Oxford Economics. | It is unfolding just as many governments are burdened by debt that limits their ability to help those in need. Since 2007, total public and private debt in emerging markets has multiplied from about 70 percent of annual economic output to 165 percent, according to Oxford Economics. |
| The pandemic has triggered a sharp reversal of international investment away from emerging markets and toward the safety of U.S. government bonds. | The pandemic has triggered a sharp reversal of international investment away from emerging markets and toward the safety of U.S. government bonds. |
| As recently as last year, a group of two dozen emerging markets including China, India, South Africa and Brazil saw net inflows of $79 billion in investment, according to the Institute of International Finance. Over the last two months, a net $70 billion in investment has exited those countries. | As recently as last year, a group of two dozen emerging markets including China, India, South Africa and Brazil saw net inflows of $79 billion in investment, according to the Institute of International Finance. Over the last two months, a net $70 billion in investment has exited those countries. |
| That shift has reignited fears that some countries could be sliding toward insolvency and default — especially Argentina, Turkey and South Africa. | That shift has reignited fears that some countries could be sliding toward insolvency and default — especially Argentina, Turkey and South Africa. |
| “The speed is quite staggering,” said Sergi Lanau, the institute’s deputy chief economist. “Whoever was vulnerable to begin with definitely faces a really challenging situation.” | “The speed is quite staggering,” said Sergi Lanau, the institute’s deputy chief economist. “Whoever was vulnerable to begin with definitely faces a really challenging situation.” |
| Most economists assume that a worldwide recession is already underway — a synchronized downturn that is punishing countries indiscriminately, turning traditional economic strengths into alarming vulnerabilities. | Most economists assume that a worldwide recession is already underway — a synchronized downturn that is punishing countries indiscriminately, turning traditional economic strengths into alarming vulnerabilities. |
| In tourist meccas like Thailand, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa, the effective imposition of a worldwide quarantine is threatening mass unemployment in the hotel, restaurant and tour industries. | In tourist meccas like Thailand, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa, the effective imposition of a worldwide quarantine is threatening mass unemployment in the hotel, restaurant and tour industries. |
| The disruption of industry worldwide has drastically cut demand for commodities, walloping copper producers like Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, along with zinc producers like Brazil and India. Oil exporters are especially susceptible to the downturn as prices remain cheap, pressuring Colombia, Algeria, Mozambique, Iraq, Nigeria and Mexico. | The disruption of industry worldwide has drastically cut demand for commodities, walloping copper producers like Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, along with zinc producers like Brazil and India. Oil exporters are especially susceptible to the downturn as prices remain cheap, pressuring Colombia, Algeria, Mozambique, Iraq, Nigeria and Mexico. |
| Mexico was already in a recession, and many of its jobs are centered on producing goods for the United States, now in a veritable lockdown. | Mexico was already in a recession, and many of its jobs are centered on producing goods for the United States, now in a veritable lockdown. |
| In wealthy nations, quarantines have been mandated, while governments and central banks have unleashed trillions of dollars in spending and credit to limit the economic damage. But in poor countries, where families cram into teeming slums, quarantining may be impossible. People who support themselves by collecting scrap metal harvested from garbage dumps risk hunger if they stay home. | In wealthy nations, quarantines have been mandated, while governments and central banks have unleashed trillions of dollars in spending and credit to limit the economic damage. But in poor countries, where families cram into teeming slums, quarantining may be impossible. People who support themselves by collecting scrap metal harvested from garbage dumps risk hunger if they stay home. |
| “Some of these countries are going to conduct real-life, unpleasant experiments in the let-it-rip kind of approach, because I just don’t see how they can control it,” said Gabriel Sterne, head of emerging market macroeconomic research at Oxford Economics. “In a Soweto township, how do you self-isolate? The social consequences of death among the weak and the elderly are going to be just monstrous.” | “Some of these countries are going to conduct real-life, unpleasant experiments in the let-it-rip kind of approach, because I just don’t see how they can control it,” said Gabriel Sterne, head of emerging market macroeconomic research at Oxford Economics. “In a Soweto township, how do you self-isolate? The social consequences of death among the weak and the elderly are going to be just monstrous.” |
| India, a country of 1.3 billion people, appears profoundly exposed, even as the official number of coronavirus cases appears limited. On Tuesday, the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, declared a national lockdown aimed at preventing the spread of the virus. | India, a country of 1.3 billion people, appears profoundly exposed, even as the official number of coronavirus cases appears limited. On Tuesday, the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, declared a national lockdown aimed at preventing the spread of the virus. |
| On a recent afternoon, on a street leading to New Delhi’s main railway station, people running sidewalk businesses were confronted by a perilous shift: The streets were empty. | On a recent afternoon, on a street leading to New Delhi’s main railway station, people running sidewalk businesses were confronted by a perilous shift: The streets were empty. |
| Mahender, 60, who shines shoes, slept by the roadside, his head propped on the cloth bag that holds the tools of his trade. Before the coronavirus, he earned about 400 rupees (about $5) per day. Now, he makes 100 rupees. | Mahender, 60, who shines shoes, slept by the roadside, his head propped on the cloth bag that holds the tools of his trade. Before the coronavirus, he earned about 400 rupees (about $5) per day. Now, he makes 100 rupees. |
| Shagun, a 45-year-old mother of five, sat on the sidewalk slicing bananas, watermelon and papayas into portions she sells to auto rickshaw drivers. With her sales down by half, she has been serving her family only rice and the cheapest lentils, while adding water to the milk she gives her children. | Shagun, a 45-year-old mother of five, sat on the sidewalk slicing bananas, watermelon and papayas into portions she sells to auto rickshaw drivers. With her sales down by half, she has been serving her family only rice and the cheapest lentils, while adding water to the milk she gives her children. |
| “My husband is jobless,” she said. “I have no savings. God forbid we are asked to move out of the footpath, we will be surviving on only one meal per day.” | “My husband is jobless,” she said. “I have no savings. God forbid we are asked to move out of the footpath, we will be surviving on only one meal per day.” |
| Even before the outbreak, India was gripped by an economic slowdown. Mr. Modi’s government has failed to generate promised jobs, while drawing accusations that it doctored the official books to mask the extent of unemployment. | Even before the outbreak, India was gripped by an economic slowdown. Mr. Modi’s government has failed to generate promised jobs, while drawing accusations that it doctored the official books to mask the extent of unemployment. |
| Faced with laments about a disappointing economy, Mr. Modi has stoked Hindu nationalism. The police have sided with Hindu mobs in bloody conflicts with minority Muslims. None of this will be eased by a public health catastrophe twinned with mass unemployment. | Faced with laments about a disappointing economy, Mr. Modi has stoked Hindu nationalism. The police have sided with Hindu mobs in bloody conflicts with minority Muslims. None of this will be eased by a public health catastrophe twinned with mass unemployment. |
| “You would have to have some blind faith to argue that India isn’t in a massive slowdown,” said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. “Now, you bring in another major force, and one that will asymmetrically hit poorer people. This could turn into something really quite bad.” | “You would have to have some blind faith to argue that India isn’t in a massive slowdown,” said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. “Now, you bring in another major force, and one that will asymmetrically hit poorer people. This could turn into something really quite bad.” |
| Argentina was in peril before the pandemic. Its currency, the peso, lost more than two-thirds of its value in 2018 and 2019, as inflation exceeded 50 percent. Its economy contracted by 2 percent last year, the continuation of a long-running slide in national fortunes. Government debt approached 90 percent of annual economic output, a flashing signal of distress. | Argentina was in peril before the pandemic. Its currency, the peso, lost more than two-thirds of its value in 2018 and 2019, as inflation exceeded 50 percent. Its economy contracted by 2 percent last year, the continuation of a long-running slide in national fortunes. Government debt approached 90 percent of annual economic output, a flashing signal of distress. |
| A new government, headed by President Alberto Fernández, was confronting a potentially impossible arithmetic problem: How could it reverse unpopular cuts to programs like cash grants for poor households without spooking international investors, hastening the exodus of money? How could the government unleash spending and pay back the $57 billion that it had borrowed from the International Monetary Fund? | A new government, headed by President Alberto Fernández, was confronting a potentially impossible arithmetic problem: How could it reverse unpopular cuts to programs like cash grants for poor households without spooking international investors, hastening the exodus of money? How could the government unleash spending and pay back the $57 billion that it had borrowed from the International Monetary Fund? |
| Last week, the I.M.F.’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, signaled flexibility. In a written statement, she cited the pandemic in declaring a need for “substantial debt relief from Argentina’s private creditors.” | Last week, the I.M.F.’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, signaled flexibility. In a written statement, she cited the pandemic in declaring a need for “substantial debt relief from Argentina’s private creditors.” |
| But the danger was deepening. The currency was down another 6 percent against the dollar this year. Poverty appeared certain to worsen, demanding government resources. | But the danger was deepening. The currency was down another 6 percent against the dollar this year. Poverty appeared certain to worsen, demanding government resources. |
| “It is difficult to think that Argentina will be able to obtain financing from anywhere,” said Maria Castiglioni Cotter, director of C&T Asesores Económicos, a consultancy in Buenos Aires. Yet “the government now has to increase public spending,” she added, or “risk a total collapse.” | “It is difficult to think that Argentina will be able to obtain financing from anywhere,” said Maria Castiglioni Cotter, director of C&T Asesores Económicos, a consultancy in Buenos Aires. Yet “the government now has to increase public spending,” she added, or “risk a total collapse.” |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | Updated June 12, 2020 |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| For Alejandro Aníbal Alonso, a 53-year-old taxi driver and father of two, the dangers are mounting. | For Alejandro Aníbal Alonso, a 53-year-old taxi driver and father of two, the dangers are mounting. |
| Two years ago, he took out a loan to buy a taxi. The terms changed with inflation. As Argentina descended into crisis, his monthly payments soared from 7,800 pesos a month to 25,000 pesos. | Two years ago, he took out a loan to buy a taxi. The terms changed with inflation. As Argentina descended into crisis, his monthly payments soared from 7,800 pesos a month to 25,000 pesos. |
| Staying current on that debt was already a desperate challenge. The pandemic has made it impossible. He missed his February payment. He does not have the money for March. | Staying current on that debt was already a desperate challenge. The pandemic has made it impossible. He missed his February payment. He does not have the money for March. |
| Last week, Mr. Alonso’s creditor sent him a menacing email. “Payments do not stop due to the coronavirus,” it said. | Last week, Mr. Alonso’s creditor sent him a menacing email. “Payments do not stop due to the coronavirus,” it said. |
| He swallowed his fears of the virus and accepted a job to go to the airport and pick up a visitor arriving from the Netherlands. “I can’t say no to a trip now,” he said. | He swallowed his fears of the virus and accepted a job to go to the airport and pick up a visitor arriving from the Netherlands. “I can’t say no to a trip now,” he said. |
| In Turkey, companies are saturated in debt, much of it in foreign currencies. The debts are the result of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s pursuit of growth at any cost. He has jailed his enemies and seized their assets, while protecting those who borrow to finance monuments to his prowess, like a new Istanbul airport. | In Turkey, companies are saturated in debt, much of it in foreign currencies. The debts are the result of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s pursuit of growth at any cost. He has jailed his enemies and seized their assets, while protecting those who borrow to finance monuments to his prowess, like a new Istanbul airport. |
| In recent years, investors have evacuated their money, sending the Turkish lira plunging while threatening companies with bankruptcy. The pandemic threatens to reignite that crisis. Turkey’s currency has dropped 10 percent since January. Tourism — about one-tenth of the Turkish economy — has been decimated. | In recent years, investors have evacuated their money, sending the Turkish lira plunging while threatening companies with bankruptcy. The pandemic threatens to reignite that crisis. Turkey’s currency has dropped 10 percent since January. Tourism — about one-tenth of the Turkish economy — has been decimated. |
| In Cappadocia, a landscape of stupendous conical rock formations, Deniz Turgut, 37, part-owner of Butterfly Balloons, has found herself staring at continuing expenses and vanishing revenue. | In Cappadocia, a landscape of stupendous conical rock formations, Deniz Turgut, 37, part-owner of Butterfly Balloons, has found herself staring at continuing expenses and vanishing revenue. |
| Last year, the company carried about 20,000 tourists on hot air balloons. In February, the company had only 43 customers, fewer than its 49 employees. Ms. Turgut reluctantly furloughed her workers. | Last year, the company carried about 20,000 tourists on hot air balloons. In February, the company had only 43 customers, fewer than its 49 employees. Ms. Turgut reluctantly furloughed her workers. |
| “We don’t know when this will end,” she said. | “We don’t know when this will end,” she said. |
| In Istanbul, Gürsel Yenilmez, 42, shut his cafe in the city’s trendy Beyoglu district last week. His business cannot pay its bank loans, its rent or its utility bills. He has canceled purchases of olives and olive oil from producers in rural Turkey. | In Istanbul, Gürsel Yenilmez, 42, shut his cafe in the city’s trendy Beyoglu district last week. His business cannot pay its bank loans, its rent or its utility bills. He has canceled purchases of olives and olive oil from producers in rural Turkey. |
| “We can’t buy anything from them or pay them right now,” he said. | “We can’t buy anything from them or pay them right now,” he said. |
| Before the pandemic, South Africa was in dire straits — its economy in recession, the unemployment rate above 29 percent. Since the pandemic emerged, South Africa’s currency has plunged more than 20 percent, forcing prices for goods higher. | Before the pandemic, South Africa was in dire straits — its economy in recession, the unemployment rate above 29 percent. Since the pandemic emerged, South Africa’s currency has plunged more than 20 percent, forcing prices for goods higher. |
| Siphilisiwe Nyathi, who makes her living braiding hair, has been forced to pay extra to rent a chair at a hair salon in Johannesburg. Hair extensions imported from China cost more, too. | Siphilisiwe Nyathi, who makes her living braiding hair, has been forced to pay extra to rent a chair at a hair salon in Johannesburg. Hair extensions imported from China cost more, too. |
| On a good Saturday, she typically earns 2,000 rand (about $112). Last Saturday, she made nothing. She paid the fare for the cramped minibus from her home in a mixed-income township to the city, nearly an hour away. She stood on the sidewalk fidgeting and was not approached by a single customer. | On a good Saturday, she typically earns 2,000 rand (about $112). Last Saturday, she made nothing. She paid the fare for the cramped minibus from her home in a mixed-income township to the city, nearly an hour away. She stood on the sidewalk fidgeting and was not approached by a single customer. |
| “We’re stuck,” she said. “We don’t know what to do.” | “We’re stuck,” she said. “We don’t know what to do.” |
| The same complaint echoed through Nairobi’s Eastleigh business district, a commercial hub full of clothing and electronics wholesalers. Most import wares from China and sell to retailers who distribute them across East Africa. | The same complaint echoed through Nairobi’s Eastleigh business district, a commercial hub full of clothing and electronics wholesalers. Most import wares from China and sell to retailers who distribute them across East Africa. |
| Faisal Ali Mohamed, who sells dresses, said he was reluctant to place a new order with his supplier in the Chinese city of Guangzhou, citing fears that “they will be held up or burned by the Kenyan government,” given the perception that China is the source of the pandemic. | Faisal Ali Mohamed, who sells dresses, said he was reluctant to place a new order with his supplier in the Chinese city of Guangzhou, citing fears that “they will be held up or burned by the Kenyan government,” given the perception that China is the source of the pandemic. |
| Kenya is heavily reliant on Chinese imports. That trade has diminished by more than one-third in recent months. | Kenya is heavily reliant on Chinese imports. That trade has diminished by more than one-third in recent months. |
| “We are just sitting around in the shop all day worried about when our customers will come,” Mr. Mohamed said. “And if they come and buy the stuff, where we will get new goods?” | “We are just sitting around in the shop all day worried about when our customers will come,” Mr. Mohamed said. “And if they come and buy the stuff, where we will get new goods?” |
| In Manila, Reynaldo Tating, 57, is enduring an unwanted home leave. | In Manila, Reynaldo Tating, 57, is enduring an unwanted home leave. |
| Like millions of Filipinos who work abroad in industries from health care to hospitality, he typically spends eight months a year sailing the world on cruise ships, mixing cocktails for international tourists. | Like millions of Filipinos who work abroad in industries from health care to hospitality, he typically spends eight months a year sailing the world on cruise ships, mixing cocktails for international tourists. |
| Now, he worries that his employer, a major cruise operator, could go bankrupt. | Now, he worries that his employer, a major cruise operator, could go bankrupt. |
| “I don’t know if we can return to our jobs,” he said. “Or whether we still have jobs.” | “I don’t know if we can return to our jobs,” he said. “Or whether we still have jobs.” |