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| Some Countries Are Better Armored for Epidemics Than Others | Some Countries Are Better Armored for Epidemics Than Others |
| (6 days later) | |
| No European country is escaping the economic consequences of the coronavirus, but the pain won’t be divided equally. | No European country is escaping the economic consequences of the coronavirus, but the pain won’t be divided equally. |
| Southern Europe, which bore the brunt of the last big economic crisis, will suffer the most. Countries like Greece and Italy depend heavily on tourism and are still suffering the lingering effects of the eurozone debt meltdown over the last decade, including austerity programs that left their health care systems ill prepared for a pandemic. | Southern Europe, which bore the brunt of the last big economic crisis, will suffer the most. Countries like Greece and Italy depend heavily on tourism and are still suffering the lingering effects of the eurozone debt meltdown over the last decade, including austerity programs that left their health care systems ill prepared for a pandemic. |
| But even countries regarded as paragons of competitiveness, like Germany and the Netherlands, may turn out to have weaknesses that, until a few weeks ago, were regarded as strengths. | But even countries regarded as paragons of competitiveness, like Germany and the Netherlands, may turn out to have weaknesses that, until a few weeks ago, were regarded as strengths. |
| Germany’s automakers, for example, have dominated the luxury car business. But the virus exposed their dependence on sales in China, and now they are closing factories all over the region. | Germany’s automakers, for example, have dominated the luxury car business. But the virus exposed their dependence on sales in China, and now they are closing factories all over the region. |
| Any country with lots of small firms and self-employed people will suffer as well, because these businesses typically have thinner financial reserves to survive a sudden plunge in sales. Greece and Italy are examples, but so is the Netherlands. | Any country with lots of small firms and self-employed people will suffer as well, because these businesses typically have thinner financial reserves to survive a sudden plunge in sales. Greece and Italy are examples, but so is the Netherlands. |
| Other countries may have hidden strengths. An economy with lots of companies that can deliver their services digitally, and where employees can work from home, should be relatively resilient. This could be Estonia’s moment; its capital, Tallinn, has a lively digital start-up scene. | Other countries may have hidden strengths. An economy with lots of companies that can deliver their services digitally, and where employees can work from home, should be relatively resilient. This could be Estonia’s moment; its capital, Tallinn, has a lively digital start-up scene. |
| The most important economic policy for any country, economists at Oxford Economics point out, is to get the virus under control. That gives the advantage to countries with effective leaders and well-equipped health care systems. | The most important economic policy for any country, economists at Oxford Economics point out, is to get the virus under control. That gives the advantage to countries with effective leaders and well-equipped health care systems. |
| Countries in southern Europe cut back on health care spending during the eurozone debt crisis to meet stringent budget limits that were a condition for receiving bailouts. Now these countries are tragically vulnerable. | Countries in southern Europe cut back on health care spending during the eurozone debt crisis to meet stringent budget limits that were a condition for receiving bailouts. Now these countries are tragically vulnerable. |
| The virus has spread its woe in unpredictable ways, and there are certain to be more unpleasant surprises. | The virus has spread its woe in unpredictable ways, and there are certain to be more unpleasant surprises. |
| “It’s still hard to say which country will be hit the most and which will be the most resilient,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief eurozone economist at the Dutch bank ING. “We are still in the middle of the wave.” | “It’s still hard to say which country will be hit the most and which will be the most resilient,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief eurozone economist at the Dutch bank ING. “We are still in the middle of the wave.” |
| The European economy is, by design, highly interconnected, and even countries that seem relatively well protected will not be able to isolate themselves from the suffering of their neighbors. | The European economy is, by design, highly interconnected, and even countries that seem relatively well protected will not be able to isolate themselves from the suffering of their neighbors. |
| “While there are some countries far better prepared than others, no countries are well prepared,” said Ryan Morhard, a global health security expert at the World Economic Forum in Geneva. | “While there are some countries far better prepared than others, no countries are well prepared,” said Ryan Morhard, a global health security expert at the World Economic Forum in Geneva. |
| Asked to name a country that has handled the crisis fairly well, Mr. Morhard cited Singapore, which of course is not in Europe. | Asked to name a country that has handled the crisis fairly well, Mr. Morhard cited Singapore, which of course is not in Europe. |
| Here’s a look at how the virus could play out in different parts of the eurozone. | Here’s a look at how the virus could play out in different parts of the eurozone. |
| With solid government finances, low unemployment and a broad social safety net, Germany looks resilient. The government was able to assemble a powerful stimulus package without endangering the country’s credit rating. It has more acute-care hospital beds per person than any other country in Europe, according to data compiled by Oxford Economics. | With solid government finances, low unemployment and a broad social safety net, Germany looks resilient. The government was able to assemble a powerful stimulus package without endangering the country’s credit rating. It has more acute-care hospital beds per person than any other country in Europe, according to data compiled by Oxford Economics. |
| But Germany entered the crisis with weak growth, and its auto and machinery makers are highly vulnerable to supply-chain disruptions and restrictions on social contact. You can’t work from home at the Mercedes-Benz assembly line. Shutdowns by big employers like Volkswagen and Daimler will provoke a chain reaction among suppliers and cause a spike in joblessness. | But Germany entered the crisis with weak growth, and its auto and machinery makers are highly vulnerable to supply-chain disruptions and restrictions on social contact. You can’t work from home at the Mercedes-Benz assembly line. Shutdowns by big employers like Volkswagen and Daimler will provoke a chain reaction among suppliers and cause a spike in joblessness. |
| It would be hard to think of a developed country more vulnerable to a pandemic than Italy. Tourism is an important part of the economy, as are small firms. The enormous government debt, equal to 137 percent of gross domestic product, leaves Rome with limited leeway to offer financial support to stricken businesses. | It would be hard to think of a developed country more vulnerable to a pandemic than Italy. Tourism is an important part of the economy, as are small firms. The enormous government debt, equal to 137 percent of gross domestic product, leaves Rome with limited leeway to offer financial support to stricken businesses. |
| Italy was headed for a recession even before the coronavirus hit. Its economic output is still less than it was before the global recession of 2009. Its people were among the world’s healthiest, but the virus outbreak exposed a critical shortage of intensive-care hospital beds. Even the quality of internet connections is below par. | Italy was headed for a recession even before the coronavirus hit. Its economic output is still less than it was before the global recession of 2009. Its people were among the world’s healthiest, but the virus outbreak exposed a critical shortage of intensive-care hospital beds. Even the quality of internet connections is below par. |
| “Italy clearly will be hit the most,” Mr. Brzeski said. | “Italy clearly will be hit the most,” Mr. Brzeski said. |
| The country is home to numerous large corporations, as well as the law firms, accountants and consultants who serve them, thanks to favorable tax laws. Employees of these companies should for the most part be able to work from home. In fact, many already do. Some 14 percent of employed Dutch people work from home. | The country is home to numerous large corporations, as well as the law firms, accountants and consultants who serve them, thanks to favorable tax laws. Employees of these companies should for the most part be able to work from home. In fact, many already do. Some 14 percent of employed Dutch people work from home. |
| Updated July 7, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| But the Netherlands has a large proportion of small businesses, and the hard-hit airline industry is a major employer. Schiphol, outside Amsterdam, is one of Europe’s largest airports and a major hub for Air France KLM, which has slashed service as much for 90 percent and asked for government assistance. | But the Netherlands has a large proportion of small businesses, and the hard-hit airline industry is a major employer. Schiphol, outside Amsterdam, is one of Europe’s largest airports and a major hub for Air France KLM, which has slashed service as much for 90 percent and asked for government assistance. |
| After a dismal decade of austerity and economic decline, when joblessness peaked at 28 percent and the country lost a quarter of its economic output, Greece had been showing signs of recovery. Unemployment was down to 16.5 percent, and investors were buying Greek debt again. But no country in the eurozone is more dependent on tourism, and it is a nation of small businesses, which typically do not have many resources to weather hard times. | After a dismal decade of austerity and economic decline, when joblessness peaked at 28 percent and the country lost a quarter of its economic output, Greece had been showing signs of recovery. Unemployment was down to 16.5 percent, and investors were buying Greek debt again. But no country in the eurozone is more dependent on tourism, and it is a nation of small businesses, which typically do not have many resources to weather hard times. |
| One surprising upside for Greece is its budget: It has been running a surplus. Some officials and experts argue that now is the time to cut the Greeks some slack and make sure 10 years of tough sacrifices don’t go to waste. | One surprising upside for Greece is its budget: It has been running a surplus. Some officials and experts argue that now is the time to cut the Greeks some slack and make sure 10 years of tough sacrifices don’t go to waste. |
| Spain was Europe’s fastest-growing large country last year as it rebounded strongly from the depths of the eurozone debt crisis. But unemployment, at nearly 14 percent, is still among Europe’s highest, and only Greece is more dependent on tourism. Spain is also a major automaking country. Volkswagen, Renault and Ford Motor have all closed their Spanish factories in recent days. Spain’s hospitals have even fewer acute-care beds per person than Italy. | Spain was Europe’s fastest-growing large country last year as it rebounded strongly from the depths of the eurozone debt crisis. But unemployment, at nearly 14 percent, is still among Europe’s highest, and only Greece is more dependent on tourism. Spain is also a major automaking country. Volkswagen, Renault and Ford Motor have all closed their Spanish factories in recent days. Spain’s hospitals have even fewer acute-care beds per person than Italy. |
| France may be somewhat less vulnerable than its neighbors. Manufacturing is not as important to the economy as it is in Germany, and the proportion of small firms and self-employed people is smaller than in Italy or the Netherlands. Many French people work for large companies, which should have an easier time surviving the crisis. Tourism is a surprisingly small part of the economy, even if Paris seems to be perpetually mobbed by people wielding selfie sticks. | France may be somewhat less vulnerable than its neighbors. Manufacturing is not as important to the economy as it is in Germany, and the proportion of small firms and self-employed people is smaller than in Italy or the Netherlands. Many French people work for large companies, which should have an easier time surviving the crisis. Tourism is a surprisingly small part of the economy, even if Paris seems to be perpetually mobbed by people wielding selfie sticks. |
| The government’s oft-criticized tendency to meddle in corporate affairs could be an advantage now that there is a need for political leaders to coordinate a defense against the virus. And France has some of Europe’s best internet connections. | The government’s oft-criticized tendency to meddle in corporate affairs could be an advantage now that there is a need for political leaders to coordinate a defense against the virus. And France has some of Europe’s best internet connections. |
| The tiny Baltic nation, population 1.3 million, has one of the most dynamic economies in the eurozone. Growth last year was more than 4 percent, unemployment is less than 5 percent, and government debt is negligible, allowing plenty of room for fiscal stimulus. | The tiny Baltic nation, population 1.3 million, has one of the most dynamic economies in the eurozone. Growth last year was more than 4 percent, unemployment is less than 5 percent, and government debt is negligible, allowing plenty of room for fiscal stimulus. |
| Estonia is known as one of the most tech-savvy countries in the world, potentially a big advantage as the outbreak forces economic activity online. The software for Skype was written in Tallinn. Bolt, a ride-hailing, electric scooter and delivery service that is challenging Uber, is based there. But as the virus spreads, Estonia must also take care to protect those who haven’t shared in the boom: More than a fifth of the population lives in poverty. | Estonia is known as one of the most tech-savvy countries in the world, potentially a big advantage as the outbreak forces economic activity online. The software for Skype was written in Tallinn. Bolt, a ride-hailing, electric scooter and delivery service that is challenging Uber, is based there. But as the virus spreads, Estonia must also take care to protect those who haven’t shared in the boom: More than a fifth of the population lives in poverty. |
| Matina Stevis-Gridneff contributed reporting. | Matina Stevis-Gridneff contributed reporting. |