This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/upshot/coronavirus-voter-turnout.html
The article has changed 21 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Why the Coronavirus Might Not Hit Turnout Hard in Tuesday’s Primaries | Why the Coronavirus Might Not Hit Turnout Hard in Tuesday’s Primaries |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| Turnout is a question ahead of every election. It would be an understatement to say it is a more challenging question than usual ahead of Tuesday’s primaries, as voters head to the polls in Florida, Illinois and Arizona amid the coronavirus pandemic. | Turnout is a question ahead of every election. It would be an understatement to say it is a more challenging question than usual ahead of Tuesday’s primaries, as voters head to the polls in Florida, Illinois and Arizona amid the coronavirus pandemic. |
| Although it’s hard to forecast the impact of coronavirus on turnout, there are a few hard facts that, on balance, suggest it might have less of an effect than one might expect in Florida and Arizona. But Illinois might be somewhat more vulnerable to a decline in turnout. (On Monday, Ohio’s governor postponed the state’s primary over health concerns.) | Although it’s hard to forecast the impact of coronavirus on turnout, there are a few hard facts that, on balance, suggest it might have less of an effect than one might expect in Florida and Arizona. But Illinois might be somewhat more vulnerable to a decline in turnout. (On Monday, Ohio’s governor postponed the state’s primary over health concerns.) |
| One factor is sure to blunt the effect of the coronavirus: early voting. Already, millions of voters in these states have cast their ballots either in person or by mail. Early voters are almost always older than the overall electorate, which tends to mitigate the possibility that such voters, who are most vulnerable to the coronavirus, won’t match their typical share of the vote. | One factor is sure to blunt the effect of the coronavirus: early voting. Already, millions of voters in these states have cast their ballots either in person or by mail. Early voters are almost always older than the overall electorate, which tends to mitigate the possibility that such voters, who are most vulnerable to the coronavirus, won’t match their typical share of the vote. |
| Historically, early voters represent an especially large share of the electorate in Arizona, which has a large list of permanent absentee voters. These voters in Arizona tend to be much older: Over all, 34 percent of registered Democrats who are permanent absentee voters are over 65, compared with 20 percent of registered Democrats who aren’t permanent absentees, according to data from L2, a nonpartisan political data firm. | Historically, early voters represent an especially large share of the electorate in Arizona, which has a large list of permanent absentee voters. These voters in Arizona tend to be much older: Over all, 34 percent of registered Democrats who are permanent absentee voters are over 65, compared with 20 percent of registered Democrats who aren’t permanent absentees, according to data from L2, a nonpartisan political data firm. |
| In 2016, 81 percent of Democrats in Arizona cast their ballots ahead of the election. So far this year, the state has already received more Democratic ballots than it did four years ago. Alone, that’s enough to significantly insulate the state from the effects of the coronavirus. | In 2016, 81 percent of Democrats in Arizona cast their ballots ahead of the election. So far this year, the state has already received more Democratic ballots than it did four years ago. Alone, that’s enough to significantly insulate the state from the effects of the coronavirus. |
| Florida also has extensive in-person and early voting. Nearly one million Democrats have already voted there, or about 55 percent of the total turnout from the 2016 Democratic primary. Early voters tend to be older in Florida as well. In 2016, of those between 18 and 24 who voted, 62 percent voted on Election Day. That’s compared with just 39 percent of voters over age 65 who did so, according to an analysis by Matthew Isbell, a Democratic political consultant in Florida. | Florida also has extensive in-person and early voting. Nearly one million Democrats have already voted there, or about 55 percent of the total turnout from the 2016 Democratic primary. Early voters tend to be older in Florida as well. In 2016, of those between 18 and 24 who voted, 62 percent voted on Election Day. That’s compared with just 39 percent of voters over age 65 who did so, according to an analysis by Matthew Isbell, a Democratic political consultant in Florida. |
| Illinois has below-average rates of absentee voting. Nearly 400,000 voters have cast ballots, but this tally includes both Democratic and Republican voters. It suggests that only around 10 percent of Democratic primary voters have cast ballots there, making the state much more susceptible to a decline in Election Day turnout. | Illinois has below-average rates of absentee voting. Nearly 400,000 voters have cast ballots, but this tally includes both Democratic and Republican voters. It suggests that only around 10 percent of Democratic primary voters have cast ballots there, making the state much more susceptible to a decline in Election Day turnout. |
| Another factor that might shape turnout is the number of known coronavirus cases. This could affect whether voters perceive a substantial risk in voting. None of these states have a particularly high rate of confirmed coronavirus cases, according to data compiled by The New York Times. | Another factor that might shape turnout is the number of known coronavirus cases. This could affect whether voters perceive a substantial risk in voting. None of these states have a particularly high rate of confirmed coronavirus cases, according to data compiled by The New York Times. |
| By this measure, Arizona again seems relatively insulated from suppressed turnout: The state currently has just 18 known cases, or 2.5 cases per million residents. Florida and Illinois, on the other hand, have somewhat higher numbers. There are 138 known cases in Florida, or 6.4 per million, and 95 in Illinois, or 7.5 cases per million. Both are still beneath the national average. | By this measure, Arizona again seems relatively insulated from suppressed turnout: The state currently has just 18 known cases, or 2.5 cases per million residents. Florida and Illinois, on the other hand, have somewhat higher numbers. There are 138 known cases in Florida, or 6.4 per million, and 95 in Illinois, or 7.5 cases per million. Both are still beneath the national average. |
| All of these figures are better than those in France, where voters went to the polls in local elections on Sunday. There, turnout was down by 20 percent from the last election in 2014. It was a significant decline in turnout, but perhaps not one that bodes especially poorly for the elections in the U.S. on Tuesday. After all, there are more than 83 cases per million French resident, or more than 10 times the rate of Illinois, and there is no substantial early voting. | All of these figures are better than those in France, where voters went to the polls in local elections on Sunday. There, turnout was down by 20 percent from the last election in 2014. It was a significant decline in turnout, but perhaps not one that bodes especially poorly for the elections in the U.S. on Tuesday. After all, there are more than 83 cases per million French resident, or more than 10 times the rate of Illinois, and there is no substantial early voting. |
| There is no reason to assume that American and French voters will respond to the coronavirus threat in the same way. But if they did, the turnout in today’s primaries would presumably remain relatively strong. | There is no reason to assume that American and French voters will respond to the coronavirus threat in the same way. But if they did, the turnout in today’s primaries would presumably remain relatively strong. |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | Updated June 12, 2020 |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| If turnout did drop because of coronavirus, it’s hard to say which candidate would benefit. Older voters would seem likeliest to stay home. They face the greatest health risks from coronavirus, and older Democrats tend to be most concerned about it, according to data from Civiqs. A lower turnout among older voters would tend to hurt Joe Biden, who has won older voters by a wide margin. | If turnout did drop because of coronavirus, it’s hard to say which candidate would benefit. Older voters would seem likeliest to stay home. They face the greatest health risks from coronavirus, and older Democrats tend to be most concerned about it, according to data from Civiqs. A lower turnout among older voters would tend to hurt Joe Biden, who has won older voters by a wide margin. |
| On the other hand, older voters are likeliest to have already voted, and they are the most reliable voters in general. | On the other hand, older voters are likeliest to have already voted, and they are the most reliable voters in general. |
| Confirmed cases tend to be concentrated in metropolitan areas, where Bernie Sanders has usually fared best in the contests since South Carolina. In Illinois, for instance, most cases are in Cook County, which includes Chicago and around half of Illinois Democrats. Cook County has 70 known coronavirus cases, or 13.4 per million residents. One could argue that turnout is likeliest to drop there, and that might be bad news for Mr. Sanders, who seems likely to get swept in the state’s rural areas and suburbs. | Confirmed cases tend to be concentrated in metropolitan areas, where Bernie Sanders has usually fared best in the contests since South Carolina. In Illinois, for instance, most cases are in Cook County, which includes Chicago and around half of Illinois Democrats. Cook County has 70 known coronavirus cases, or 13.4 per million residents. One could argue that turnout is likeliest to drop there, and that might be bad news for Mr. Sanders, who seems likely to get swept in the state’s rural areas and suburbs. |
| Ultimately, even a significant coronavirus turnout effect would be unlikely to change the trajectory of the race. Mr. Biden leads by a wide margin in all three states, based on the polls and recent election results. If he wins by anything like the kind of margins suggested by the polls, he could end the night with an all but insurmountable lead in the pledged delegate count. | Ultimately, even a significant coronavirus turnout effect would be unlikely to change the trajectory of the race. Mr. Biden leads by a wide margin in all three states, based on the polls and recent election results. If he wins by anything like the kind of margins suggested by the polls, he could end the night with an all but insurmountable lead in the pledged delegate count. |