This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/health/coronavirus-shut-down.html

The article has changed 25 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 1 Version 2
How Long Will the Coronavirus Outbreak and Shutdown Last? How Long Will the Coronavirus Outbreak and Shutdown Last?
(2 months later)
This is a fast-moving situation. For the latest updates, read The New York Times’s live coronavirus coverage here.This is a fast-moving situation. For the latest updates, read The New York Times’s live coronavirus coverage here.
At a news conference on Thursday, President Trump addressed the question of the hour: How long will it take for things to go back to normal?At a news conference on Thursday, President Trump addressed the question of the hour: How long will it take for things to go back to normal?
“People are talking about July, August,” he said.“People are talking about July, August,” he said.
But that inquiry, many doctors and scientists say, is the wrong question.But that inquiry, many doctors and scientists say, is the wrong question.
“We need to change the conversation from: ‘How inconvenient it is to me?’ to ‘Who are the people who are suffering most, and how can we help them?’” said Sarah Fortune, a professor and chair of the department of immunology and infectious diseases at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “Think of it as a community service.”“We need to change the conversation from: ‘How inconvenient it is to me?’ to ‘Who are the people who are suffering most, and how can we help them?’” said Sarah Fortune, a professor and chair of the department of immunology and infectious diseases at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “Think of it as a community service.”
Although life on lockdown is disruptive, experts say that it might be the only way to prevent mass death and infection.Although life on lockdown is disruptive, experts say that it might be the only way to prevent mass death and infection.
Public health officials say a coronavirus vaccine won’t be ready for widespread public use for at least a year to 18 months, taking us well into 2021. The first trials started on Monday, and it will take time to make sure the vaccine actually works.Public health officials say a coronavirus vaccine won’t be ready for widespread public use for at least a year to 18 months, taking us well into 2021. The first trials started on Monday, and it will take time to make sure the vaccine actually works.
“That’s why all these interventions are taken to limit social mixing,” said Dr. Nicholas Christakis, a contagion expert and a professor at Yale. “It’s so we reduce the force of the epidemic as it crashes upon us.”“That’s why all these interventions are taken to limit social mixing,” said Dr. Nicholas Christakis, a contagion expert and a professor at Yale. “It’s so we reduce the force of the epidemic as it crashes upon us.”
If we are relying on social or physical distancing to slow down infection, the prevailing optimistic guess among experts on when the virus will abate is about two months: significantly earlier than Mr. Trump’s prediction.If we are relying on social or physical distancing to slow down infection, the prevailing optimistic guess among experts on when the virus will abate is about two months: significantly earlier than Mr. Trump’s prediction.
“I’d say the beginning of May we’re going to feel like we’re coming out of this,” said Morgan Katz, an assistant professor of infectious disease at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. “That’s my hope.”“I’d say the beginning of May we’re going to feel like we’re coming out of this,” said Morgan Katz, an assistant professor of infectious disease at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. “That’s my hope.”
To make loose predictions on how long this outbreak and societal disruption might last in the United States, she and many other experts are turning to China. There, after the first cases in December, reports of a strange new virus started bubbling up in early January. By late January, much of the country was in lockdown. Throughout February, there was an all-out war against the virus. Schools closed. Stores closed. Everyone basically stayed inside.To make loose predictions on how long this outbreak and societal disruption might last in the United States, she and many other experts are turning to China. There, after the first cases in December, reports of a strange new virus started bubbling up in early January. By late January, much of the country was in lockdown. Throughout February, there was an all-out war against the virus. Schools closed. Stores closed. Everyone basically stayed inside.
But in early March, after about two months of aggressive containment measures, things started to change. The number of cases started decreasing; China’s leader, Xi Jinping, paid a visit to Wuhan, the city at the epicenter of the outbreak; and life has started to slowly return to normal.But in early March, after about two months of aggressive containment measures, things started to change. The number of cases started decreasing; China’s leader, Xi Jinping, paid a visit to Wuhan, the city at the epicenter of the outbreak; and life has started to slowly return to normal.
Yaneer Bar-Yam, a physicist and the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, a research institution that studies systems and networks, based his assessment partially off China’s response. “It will take a month and a half, plus a logarithmic correction, once we start doing what’s needed,” he said.Yaneer Bar-Yam, a physicist and the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, a research institution that studies systems and networks, based his assessment partially off China’s response. “It will take a month and a half, plus a logarithmic correction, once we start doing what’s needed,” he said.
But most experts, Dr. Bar-Yam included, do not consider the United States to have started the appropriate clock. Although cities are shutting down school systems and restaurants, social distancing is still a recommendation, rather than an enforced policy, as it is in Italy.But most experts, Dr. Bar-Yam included, do not consider the United States to have started the appropriate clock. Although cities are shutting down school systems and restaurants, social distancing is still a recommendation, rather than an enforced policy, as it is in Italy.
“It’s like a wrecking ball that’s going to hit the building, but it hasn’t hit yet,” Dr. Bar-Yam said. “Every day that we don’t do something, it’s getting worse, and by a lot.”“It’s like a wrecking ball that’s going to hit the building, but it hasn’t hit yet,” Dr. Bar-Yam said. “Every day that we don’t do something, it’s getting worse, and by a lot.”
There is also a question as to how the coronavirus will behave in the long term. It might be seasonal, abating with warmer weather.There is also a question as to how the coronavirus will behave in the long term. It might be seasonal, abating with warmer weather.
Updated June 5, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
It might act like the Zika virus, a mosquito-borne illness that causes birth defects. For much of 2016, it devastated communities in South America and Southeast Asia. But for the past three years, there have been few cases.It might act like the Zika virus, a mosquito-borne illness that causes birth defects. For much of 2016, it devastated communities in South America and Southeast Asia. But for the past three years, there have been few cases.
It might act like the 2009 swine flu pandemic, which infected millions and caused more than 10,000 deaths. But now that virus is just part of our annual flu cycle, according to Andrew Pekosz, a professor of microbiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.It might act like the 2009 swine flu pandemic, which infected millions and caused more than 10,000 deaths. But now that virus is just part of our annual flu cycle, according to Andrew Pekosz, a professor of microbiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Or it might be like the 1918 Spanish flu, thought to be the deadliest in human history. That disease, which killed at least 50 million people worldwide (the equivalent of 200 million today), came in three waves. The second, which came in fall 1918, was by far the most deadly.Or it might be like the 1918 Spanish flu, thought to be the deadliest in human history. That disease, which killed at least 50 million people worldwide (the equivalent of 200 million today), came in three waves. The second, which came in fall 1918, was by far the most deadly.
Although much is still unknown about the timeline of the coronavirus outbreak, most experts agree: China and South Korea are on a downswing after aggressive testing and quarantine measures. The rest of the world would do well to follow suit.Although much is still unknown about the timeline of the coronavirus outbreak, most experts agree: China and South Korea are on a downswing after aggressive testing and quarantine measures. The rest of the world would do well to follow suit.
“China showed us what it looked like to be able to act to stop it,” Dr. Bar-Yam said. “They’ve stopped it. We have to choose whether we’re going to do that.”“China showed us what it looked like to be able to act to stop it,” Dr. Bar-Yam said. “They’ve stopped it. We have to choose whether we’re going to do that.”