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Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus? | Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus? |
(about 7 hours later) | |
As an America desperate to stem the coronavirus outbreak put in place sweeping restrictions last week on every facet of public life, the University of Wyoming economist Linda Thunstrom asked what felt like a taboo question: “Are we overreacting?’’ | As an America desperate to stem the coronavirus outbreak put in place sweeping restrictions last week on every facet of public life, the University of Wyoming economist Linda Thunstrom asked what felt like a taboo question: “Are we overreacting?’’ |
It helped that Dr. Thunstrom was in her kitchen, drinking coffee with her husband, Jason Shogren, a fellow economist who studies how much Americans are willing to pay to reduce risk of threats like terrorism, food-borne illness and climate change. | It helped that Dr. Thunstrom was in her kitchen, drinking coffee with her husband, Jason Shogren, a fellow economist who studies how much Americans are willing to pay to reduce risk of threats like terrorism, food-borne illness and climate change. |
Calculating the economic costs of curtailing social interaction compared with the lives saved, he agreed, might yield a useful metric for policymakers. The U.S. government routinely performs such analyses when assessing new regulations, with the “statistical value of life” currently pegged by one government agency at about $9 million. | Calculating the economic costs of curtailing social interaction compared with the lives saved, he agreed, might yield a useful metric for policymakers. The U.S. government routinely performs such analyses when assessing new regulations, with the “statistical value of life” currently pegged by one government agency at about $9 million. |
Still, Dr. Thunstrom asked, “Do we even want to look at that? Is it too callous?” | Still, Dr. Thunstrom asked, “Do we even want to look at that? Is it too callous?” |
No one wants to be seen as prioritizing profit or, say, youth soccer over saving lives. But in recent days, a group of contrarian political leaders, ethicists and ordinary Americans have bridled at what they saw as a tendency to dismiss the complex trade-offs that the measures collectively known as “social distancing” entail. | No one wants to be seen as prioritizing profit or, say, youth soccer over saving lives. But in recent days, a group of contrarian political leaders, ethicists and ordinary Americans have bridled at what they saw as a tendency to dismiss the complex trade-offs that the measures collectively known as “social distancing” entail. |
Besides the financial ramifications of such policies, their concerns touch on how society’s most marginalized groups may fare and on the effect of government-enforced curfews on democratic ideals. Their questions about the current approach are distinct from those raised by some conservative activists who have suggested the virus is a politically inspired hoax, or no worse than the flu. | Besides the financial ramifications of such policies, their concerns touch on how society’s most marginalized groups may fare and on the effect of government-enforced curfews on democratic ideals. Their questions about the current approach are distinct from those raised by some conservative activists who have suggested the virus is a politically inspired hoax, or no worse than the flu. |
Even in the face of a mounting coronavirus death toll, and the widespread adoption of the social distancing approach, these critics say it is important to acknowledge all the consequences of decisions intended to mitigate the virus’s spread. | Even in the face of a mounting coronavirus death toll, and the widespread adoption of the social distancing approach, these critics say it is important to acknowledge all the consequences of decisions intended to mitigate the virus’s spread. |
Some college students who were abruptly ushered off campus last week complain that they are more likely to infect higher-risk older adults at home than they were at college. Among the throngs who have been ordered to self-quarantine, some people question the purpose of isolating themselves if the virus is already circulating widely in their communities. Certain parents balk at the pressure from friends to withdraw their children from schools that are still open, or at what they see as groupthink that has prompted the cancellation of events that are still weeks or months away. | Some college students who were abruptly ushered off campus last week complain that they are more likely to infect higher-risk older adults at home than they were at college. Among the throngs who have been ordered to self-quarantine, some people question the purpose of isolating themselves if the virus is already circulating widely in their communities. Certain parents balk at the pressure from friends to withdraw their children from schools that are still open, or at what they see as groupthink that has prompted the cancellation of events that are still weeks or months away. |
And how do you weigh the risk of an unknown number of deaths against the possibility that several hundred thousand students who depend on free lunch at school will go hungry? Or against other lives that may be lost in an economic contraction born of social isolation? | And how do you weigh the risk of an unknown number of deaths against the possibility that several hundred thousand students who depend on free lunch at school will go hungry? Or against other lives that may be lost in an economic contraction born of social isolation? |
“We have to give due seriousness to this disease breaking out across the globe,” said Nicholas Evans, a philosophy professor at the University of Massachusetts Lowell who has criticized Harvard University for failing to put a comprehensive plan in place for financially disadvantaged students before announcing a move to online classes. “At the same time, we have to think about equity and the way the risks and benefits of measures we take are distributed.” | “We have to give due seriousness to this disease breaking out across the globe,” said Nicholas Evans, a philosophy professor at the University of Massachusetts Lowell who has criticized Harvard University for failing to put a comprehensive plan in place for financially disadvantaged students before announcing a move to online classes. “At the same time, we have to think about equity and the way the risks and benefits of measures we take are distributed.” |
Until he reversed course on Sunday under mounting pressure, Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City had suggested that there was a lack of evidence that closing the nation’s largest school district would significantly slow the virus’s spread. | Until he reversed course on Sunday under mounting pressure, Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City had suggested that there was a lack of evidence that closing the nation’s largest school district would significantly slow the virus’s spread. |
What such a closure would do, he said before reversing himself, would be to force parents to stay home, including those who work in the hospitals that are expected to fill with coronavirus patients. While school districts in Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and elsewhere have shuttered, “we don’t model off anyone else,” the mayor said. | What such a closure would do, he said before reversing himself, would be to force parents to stay home, including those who work in the hospitals that are expected to fill with coronavirus patients. While school districts in Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and elsewhere have shuttered, “we don’t model off anyone else,” the mayor said. |
Of course, policies are changing by the day. Malcolm Campbell, a Davidson College biology professor, outfitted his undergraduates early last week in rubber gloves to discourage face-touching. “Still teaching labs and keeping students safe,” he tweeted. | Of course, policies are changing by the day. Malcolm Campbell, a Davidson College biology professor, outfitted his undergraduates early last week in rubber gloves to discourage face-touching. “Still teaching labs and keeping students safe,” he tweeted. |
But he was bidding those same students goodbye on Friday when Davidson, a liberal arts college in North Carolina, sent students home for an extended spring break. | But he was bidding those same students goodbye on Friday when Davidson, a liberal arts college in North Carolina, sent students home for an extended spring break. |
To some extent, Dr. Campbell said, he understood the school’s choice as rational. About 45 million Americans have been infected by the flu this season, which typically peaks in February, and about 40,000 have died. For the coronavirus, health officials predict between two and six times as many infections, and between four and 40 times as many deaths, in the absence of social distancing or as-yet-nonexistent pharmaceutical interventions. | To some extent, Dr. Campbell said, he understood the school’s choice as rational. About 45 million Americans have been infected by the flu this season, which typically peaks in February, and about 40,000 have died. For the coronavirus, health officials predict between two and six times as many infections, and between four and 40 times as many deaths, in the absence of social distancing or as-yet-nonexistent pharmaceutical interventions. |
But Dr. Campbell said he had argued for Davidson to remain open, based on the relatively low risk the virus poses to college-age students, and the virtue of classes like his, which cannot be taught online. | But Dr. Campbell said he had argued for Davidson to remain open, based on the relatively low risk the virus poses to college-age students, and the virtue of classes like his, which cannot be taught online. |
It was hard to escape the conclusion that Davidson, like others, was influenced by social pressure, he said: “It’s like, if you don’t close, then you’re a heartless, cruel organization.” | It was hard to escape the conclusion that Davidson, like others, was influenced by social pressure, he said: “It’s like, if you don’t close, then you’re a heartless, cruel organization.” |
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the recent plunge in value to their stock portfolios, some Silicon Valley figures have taken to social media to underscore the economic impact of social distancing. | Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the recent plunge in value to their stock portfolios, some Silicon Valley figures have taken to social media to underscore the economic impact of social distancing. |
“The fear is far worse than the virus,” tweeted Tim Draper, a venture capitalist, using the hashtags #corona #dustbowl, #food, #clothing and #shelter. “The governments have it wrong. Stay open for business.” | “The fear is far worse than the virus,” tweeted Tim Draper, a venture capitalist, using the hashtags #corona #dustbowl, #food, #clothing and #shelter. “The governments have it wrong. Stay open for business.” |
But America’s hashtag has become something akin to #hunkerdownathome, with a series of closings, suspensions, postponements by businesses and cultural institutions. | But America’s hashtag has become something akin to #hunkerdownathome, with a series of closings, suspensions, postponements by businesses and cultural institutions. |
Disneyland — closed. The Metropolitan Opera — closed. Shuttered as well are research universities and day care centers, Broadway theaters, Apple stores, local libraries, ski resorts, March Madness and professional basketball, hockey and baseball. | Disneyland — closed. The Metropolitan Opera — closed. Shuttered as well are research universities and day care centers, Broadway theaters, Apple stores, local libraries, ski resorts, March Madness and professional basketball, hockey and baseball. |
On Saturday, the mayor of Hoboken, N.J., banned restaurants and bars from providing food, and established a curfew requiring people to be in their homes between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. The next day the governor of Puerto Rico went even further, ordering nearly all businesses to close and imposing a 9 p.m. curfew. | On Saturday, the mayor of Hoboken, N.J., banned restaurants and bars from providing food, and established a curfew requiring people to be in their homes between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. The next day the governor of Puerto Rico went even further, ordering nearly all businesses to close and imposing a 9 p.m. curfew. |
Organizers of professional conferences, political fund-raisers, book talks and shivas have sometimes been chastised in recent days for daring to even consider not canceling their events. | Organizers of professional conferences, political fund-raisers, book talks and shivas have sometimes been chastised in recent days for daring to even consider not canceling their events. |
Updated June 24, 2020 | |
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | |
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
The scientists organizing a Genetics Society of America meeting scheduled for April 22 near Washington, D.C., tried to put off a decision on canceling the gathering until later this month. But the conference joined the list of shuttered professional meetings late last week after some members complained that the delay was creating bad optics for the group. | The scientists organizing a Genetics Society of America meeting scheduled for April 22 near Washington, D.C., tried to put off a decision on canceling the gathering until later this month. But the conference joined the list of shuttered professional meetings late last week after some members complained that the delay was creating bad optics for the group. |
“People had this feeling, like, ‘Just do something,’” said Denise Montell, a geneticist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and the society’s president, “‘because somebody needs to do something about this virus.’” | “People had this feeling, like, ‘Just do something,’” said Denise Montell, a geneticist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and the society’s president, “‘because somebody needs to do something about this virus.’” |
Of course, there is plenty of scientific backing for the benefits of social distancing in delaying transmission of the virus. | Of course, there is plenty of scientific backing for the benefits of social distancing in delaying transmission of the virus. |
China’s quarantine measures, a recent paper concludes, helped it cut infections to fewer than two dozen a day from over 3,500 a day in late January. Restrictions on gatherings in western Washington State have been guided by a model suggesting that such measures could save 400 lives in the region by April 7. | China’s quarantine measures, a recent paper concludes, helped it cut infections to fewer than two dozen a day from over 3,500 a day in late January. Restrictions on gatherings in western Washington State have been guided by a model suggesting that such measures could save 400 lives in the region by April 7. |
Images that illustrate how slowing the transmission rate could avert a surge in cases that would overwhelm the health system — as they did in Italy — have circulated widely for several weeks under variations of the hashtag #FlattenTheCurve. | Images that illustrate how slowing the transmission rate could avert a surge in cases that would overwhelm the health system — as they did in Italy — have circulated widely for several weeks under variations of the hashtag #FlattenTheCurve. |
“Cancel everything," concluded one political scientist, writing in The Atlantic. “Now.” | “Cancel everything," concluded one political scientist, writing in The Atlantic. “Now.” |
Amid the concerns out there that society may be overreacting is a chorus of calls for even bolder action. | Amid the concerns out there that society may be overreacting is a chorus of calls for even bolder action. |
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday that he favors a 14-day national shutdown to slow down the coronavirus. “I think we should really be overly aggressive and get criticized for overreacting,” Dr. Fauci said. | Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday that he favors a 14-day national shutdown to slow down the coronavirus. “I think we should really be overly aggressive and get criticized for overreacting,” Dr. Fauci said. |
But even the many experts who agree on social distancing as an effective remedy worry about some of the fallout. There are civil liberties concerns surrounding quarantines. There is economic hardship for hourly wage workers. Few have thought through how sick people staying in their homes would be cared for. | But even the many experts who agree on social distancing as an effective remedy worry about some of the fallout. There are civil liberties concerns surrounding quarantines. There is economic hardship for hourly wage workers. Few have thought through how sick people staying in their homes would be cared for. |
“We need to give the response to the virus our full attention,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an associate professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “But we’re following every rabbit that pops out of its hole, as opposed to trying to prioritize responses that have the most impact.” | “We need to give the response to the virus our full attention,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an associate professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “But we’re following every rabbit that pops out of its hole, as opposed to trying to prioritize responses that have the most impact.” |
It may prove impossible to know whether the policies the country adopts were just enough, or more than necessary, to quell the spread of the virus. | It may prove impossible to know whether the policies the country adopts were just enough, or more than necessary, to quell the spread of the virus. |
That thought has occurred frequently to Rick Wright, an insurance broker in Redwood City who tested positive for the virus after being evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship to a military base in California last month. | That thought has occurred frequently to Rick Wright, an insurance broker in Redwood City who tested positive for the virus after being evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship to a military base in California last month. |
He has never felt sick. But because his nose and throat swabs have continued to show evidence of the virus, he has remained in self-quarantine, alone at home, for 19 days after an eight-day stint alone in a San Francisco hospital. He and his wife, who has moved out and is staying with her sister, wave to each other through the window when she drops off food. | He has never felt sick. But because his nose and throat swabs have continued to show evidence of the virus, he has remained in self-quarantine, alone at home, for 19 days after an eight-day stint alone in a San Francisco hospital. He and his wife, who has moved out and is staying with her sister, wave to each other through the window when she drops off food. |
“Is it overkill?” he frequently asks himself. | “Is it overkill?” he frequently asks himself. |
He is not certain. But if he were not quarantined, he acknowledged that he might drop in on his elderly parents, who are at higher risk of suffering the effects of the coronavirus. | He is not certain. But if he were not quarantined, he acknowledged that he might drop in on his elderly parents, who are at higher risk of suffering the effects of the coronavirus. |
“We could look back at this time in four months and say, ‘We did the right thing’ — or we could say, ‘That was silly,’” he said in an interview. | “We could look back at this time in four months and say, ‘We did the right thing’ — or we could say, ‘That was silly,’” he said in an interview. |
Then he added one more likely scenario: “Or we might never know.” | Then he added one more likely scenario: “Or we might never know.” |