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Buying a Home During a Pandemic Buying a Home During a Pandemic
(3 months later)
Your down payment fund was safely in cash. You’d planned, perhaps for years, for the 2020 home-buying season. Then, just as the perfect home hit the market, the coronavirus turned the world on its head.Your down payment fund was safely in cash. You’d planned, perhaps for years, for the 2020 home-buying season. Then, just as the perfect home hit the market, the coronavirus turned the world on its head.
Should you go through with the purchase?Should you go through with the purchase?
Whatever it is that is happening now hasn’t hit the housing market yet, but it probably will. Stocks have fallen, entire industries are putting themselves on pause and all manner of small businesses are taking hits.Whatever it is that is happening now hasn’t hit the housing market yet, but it probably will. Stocks have fallen, entire industries are putting themselves on pause and all manner of small businesses are taking hits.
There is so much we don’t know about what the next few months will bring, including whether it will even be over in the next few months. But the economic impact of the virus will be far-reaching, affecting everything from employment rates, to buyers’ and agents’ willingness to attend open houses, to whether sellers pull listings. Many people will have less money, and they may have less access to it as well. Quicken Loans, the nation’s largest home-loan lender, said Thursday that it had no current plans to change underwriting — which leaves open the possibility that it and others might in the future.There is so much we don’t know about what the next few months will bring, including whether it will even be over in the next few months. But the economic impact of the virus will be far-reaching, affecting everything from employment rates, to buyers’ and agents’ willingness to attend open houses, to whether sellers pull listings. Many people will have less money, and they may have less access to it as well. Quicken Loans, the nation’s largest home-loan lender, said Thursday that it had no current plans to change underwriting — which leaves open the possibility that it and others might in the future.
All that may make it seem like an odd moment to consider buying a house. But there will be many people who are confident about their job security — or moving for job offers that haven’t evaporated. There will be others making room for new family members or looking to be closer to older ones who may need care.All that may make it seem like an odd moment to consider buying a house. But there will be many people who are confident about their job security — or moving for job offers that haven’t evaporated. There will be others making room for new family members or looking to be closer to older ones who may need care.
Everyone needs someplace to live, and here is another thing that will probably not change: In many parts of the country (and plenty of urban neighborhoods dominated by single-family homes), the housing stock for sale will be more attractive to many than what is for rent.Everyone needs someplace to live, and here is another thing that will probably not change: In many parts of the country (and plenty of urban neighborhoods dominated by single-family homes), the housing stock for sale will be more attractive to many than what is for rent.
Much of the inventory has to come from people who are moving up or on and will themselves need to have the courage to buy themselves a new place.Much of the inventory has to come from people who are moving up or on and will themselves need to have the courage to buy themselves a new place.
As of last month, Elaine Cicora and her husband’s year looked something like this: Sell their Macedonia, Ohio, home later this spring; buy a newly built one not far away and move in August; withdraw money from retirement accounts in an orderly fashion if and when they need to; and fly to Austin this month to march their eldest daughter down the aisle.As of last month, Elaine Cicora and her husband’s year looked something like this: Sell their Macedonia, Ohio, home later this spring; buy a newly built one not far away and move in August; withdraw money from retirement accounts in an orderly fashion if and when they need to; and fly to Austin this month to march their eldest daughter down the aisle.
Now, they’re putting their house on the market even sooner, in the hopes that they can catch buyers before they have second thoughts; querying their builder about disrupted supply chains while considering what to do about the next deposit that is due on that place; considering whether they ought to just call a halt to both buying and selling; eyeing the markets with growing concern; and close to canceling their Texas plans.Now, they’re putting their house on the market even sooner, in the hopes that they can catch buyers before they have second thoughts; querying their builder about disrupted supply chains while considering what to do about the next deposit that is due on that place; considering whether they ought to just call a halt to both buying and selling; eyeing the markets with growing concern; and close to canceling their Texas plans.
“If it was only one or two of these things — stocks, out-of-state wedding, two house transactions — I wouldn’t be losing my mind,” she said.“If it was only one or two of these things — stocks, out-of-state wedding, two house transactions — I wouldn’t be losing my mind,” she said.
Many real estate shoppers were trying to weigh multiple moving pieces back in late 2008, too. That crisis was different — the S&P 500 would ultimately lose half its value from its peak, and home prices cratered, too.Many real estate shoppers were trying to weigh multiple moving pieces back in late 2008, too. That crisis was different — the S&P 500 would ultimately lose half its value from its peak, and home prices cratered, too.
That’s not the case this time (so far, at least). And what has happened since 2008 should provide us some comfort right now.That’s not the case this time (so far, at least). And what has happened since 2008 should provide us some comfort right now.
That December, I talked to three couples who had taken the plunge and suggested that five to 10 years later, we would probably look back on that period as an incredible buying opportunity.That December, I talked to three couples who had taken the plunge and suggested that five to 10 years later, we would probably look back on that period as an incredible buying opportunity.
How do those couples see things now? Two are glad they made the leap when things were looking very grim, and the third did not comment — but their Los Angeles neighborhood has seen home values double or more during those dozen years.How do those couples see things now? Two are glad they made the leap when things were looking very grim, and the third did not comment — but their Los Angeles neighborhood has seen home values double or more during those dozen years.
Jaime and Michael Proman bought a house in Minneapolis in 2008, having moved from a 450-square-foot studio apartment in New York City. He grew up in the Twin Cities, and they said at the time that it felt like they were making a permanent move.Jaime and Michael Proman bought a house in Minneapolis in 2008, having moved from a 450-square-foot studio apartment in New York City. He grew up in the Twin Cities, and they said at the time that it felt like they were making a permanent move.
Minnesota is still home, though they didn’t stay in the house they bought. When they and their expanding family traded up in 2013, their house had actually fallen in value. Had they waited a bit longer to move, they would have broken even thanks to rising real estate values there — but their new, bigger house would have cost that much more as well.Minnesota is still home, though they didn’t stay in the house they bought. When they and their expanding family traded up in 2013, their house had actually fallen in value. Had they waited a bit longer to move, they would have broken even thanks to rising real estate values there — but their new, bigger house would have cost that much more as well.
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
They said this week that they had zero regrets about the 2008 purchase now that they are in what is likely their forever house, just over the city limits. Their first home was a learning experience, Mr. Proman said. For example, they had focused on their own needs and not thought much about any eventual sale or the needs of their potential future buyers. All the stairs, they found, gave pause to older home shoppers.They said this week that they had zero regrets about the 2008 purchase now that they are in what is likely their forever house, just over the city limits. Their first home was a learning experience, Mr. Proman said. For example, they had focused on their own needs and not thought much about any eventual sale or the needs of their potential future buyers. All the stairs, they found, gave pause to older home shoppers.
Many people who are considering buying now may be swayed by other benefits of homeownership: control and certainty. You get a stable monthly housing payment — and rock-bottom interest rates might mean you never even have to refinance — plus the comfort of knowing the place is yours as long as you make that payment.Many people who are considering buying now may be swayed by other benefits of homeownership: control and certainty. You get a stable monthly housing payment — and rock-bottom interest rates might mean you never even have to refinance — plus the comfort of knowing the place is yours as long as you make that payment.
That certainty has proved crucial for another Minneapolis couple, Lacey Mamak and Alison Nowak. They scraped together a 3 percent down payment in 2008 (in part through a local assistance program) to buy an 800-square-foot house, and there they have stayed. They now have about $50,000 in equity and a mortgage payment of around $1,100.That certainty has proved crucial for another Minneapolis couple, Lacey Mamak and Alison Nowak. They scraped together a 3 percent down payment in 2008 (in part through a local assistance program) to buy an 800-square-foot house, and there they have stayed. They now have about $50,000 in equity and a mortgage payment of around $1,100.
Back then, Mx. Mamak was in a part-time position but is now an academic librarian on the tenure track. Ms. Nowak is an adjunct instructor who also does design and communications work. Rents in the area have risen so much that they believe they would have been priced out of town by now — or forced into different lines of work — if they had not bought.Back then, Mx. Mamak was in a part-time position but is now an academic librarian on the tenure track. Ms. Nowak is an adjunct instructor who also does design and communications work. Rents in the area have risen so much that they believe they would have been priced out of town by now — or forced into different lines of work — if they had not bought.
Upon reflection this week, they were intensely dialed into the emotional resonance of home-ownership. First, there was gratitude for the fact that their fixed costs enable them to do work they love. Then, there was empathy for people who need or want to move and are scared — this time for their health as much as their finances — and thus find themselves at the crossroads that the two of them were at 12 years ago.Upon reflection this week, they were intensely dialed into the emotional resonance of home-ownership. First, there was gratitude for the fact that their fixed costs enable them to do work they love. Then, there was empathy for people who need or want to move and are scared — this time for their health as much as their finances — and thus find themselves at the crossroads that the two of them were at 12 years ago.
“People tend to think of buying a house as a signifier of being an adult, and that if you can’t afford it, you’re somehow not an adult,” Mx. Mamak said. “But there are so many other factors and forces now, and it has nothing to do with your personal worth or how grown up you are.”“People tend to think of buying a house as a signifier of being an adult, and that if you can’t afford it, you’re somehow not an adult,” Mx. Mamak said. “But there are so many other factors and forces now, and it has nothing to do with your personal worth or how grown up you are.”