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Johnson Urged to Adopt Stronger Measures to Fight Virus in Britain Johnson Urged to Adopt Stronger Measures to Fight Virus in Britain
(3 days later)
LONDON — When Prime Minister Boris Johnson last spoke to the British public about the coronavirus pandemic, four days ago, he was flanked by his chief medical and science advisers and issued a stark warning that “many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.”LONDON — When Prime Minister Boris Johnson last spoke to the British public about the coronavirus pandemic, four days ago, he was flanked by his chief medical and science advisers and issued a stark warning that “many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.”
Even then, the comparatively relaxed measures Mr. Johnson announced seemed at odds with the gravity of the crisis he said was bearing down on the country. The dissonance has only deepened in the days since, as British officials have offered mixed messages about their strategy for fighting the virus and leaked details of more rigorous measures to come in a piecemeal, selective manner.Even then, the comparatively relaxed measures Mr. Johnson announced seemed at odds with the gravity of the crisis he said was bearing down on the country. The dissonance has only deepened in the days since, as British officials have offered mixed messages about their strategy for fighting the virus and leaked details of more rigorous measures to come in a piecemeal, selective manner.
This muddled approach has left many in Britain confused, especially since France, Spain and other European countries have taken far harsher measures to shut down their countries. Britain, in the age of coronavirus, is a strangely ambivalent society: Pubs in London continued to hop on Saturday night, even as nervous shoppers crowded grocery stores on Sunday morning.This muddled approach has left many in Britain confused, especially since France, Spain and other European countries have taken far harsher measures to shut down their countries. Britain, in the age of coronavirus, is a strangely ambivalent society: Pubs in London continued to hop on Saturday night, even as nervous shoppers crowded grocery stores on Sunday morning.
“Communications is absolutely essential to retaining the public’s trust,” said Devi Sridhar, director of the global health governance program at Edinburgh University. “It is frustrating that Westminster has been so cagey on why it is pursuing these policies and not transparent on the underlying evidence and models.”“Communications is absolutely essential to retaining the public’s trust,” said Devi Sridhar, director of the global health governance program at Edinburgh University. “It is frustrating that Westminster has been so cagey on why it is pursuing these policies and not transparent on the underlying evidence and models.”
At the heart of Britain’s problem is that it has diverged sharply from other Western countries in how it is responding to the virus: putting off school closings and the banning of public gatherings for as long as possible, so that the public will go along with such measures when the need for isolation becomes more desperate.At the heart of Britain’s problem is that it has diverged sharply from other Western countries in how it is responding to the virus: putting off school closings and the banning of public gatherings for as long as possible, so that the public will go along with such measures when the need for isolation becomes more desperate.
The approach is based on medical and behavioral science, as well as a belief that Britain’s early success in testing patients and tracking down their contacts has staved off the kind of surge in cases that would quickly overwhelm hospitals. But as infections shot up to 1,372 on Sunday, and the Trump administration imposed a travel ban on many visitors from Britain, the policy has become increasingly hard to defend.The approach is based on medical and behavioral science, as well as a belief that Britain’s early success in testing patients and tracking down their contacts has staved off the kind of surge in cases that would quickly overwhelm hospitals. But as infections shot up to 1,372 on Sunday, and the Trump administration imposed a travel ban on many visitors from Britain, the policy has become increasingly hard to defend.
In an open letter, nearly 350 scientists warned that the British approach was putting lives at risk. “Additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as it is already happening in other countries across the world,” said the letter, which was also signed by 33 experts outside Britain, including from Harvard and Cornell universities.In an open letter, nearly 350 scientists warned that the British approach was putting lives at risk. “Additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as it is already happening in other countries across the world,” said the letter, which was also signed by 33 experts outside Britain, including from Harvard and Cornell universities.
There are signs that Britain may harden its measures in the coming week. But the government’s signaling has been haphazard and opaque.There are signs that Britain may harden its measures in the coming week. But the government’s signaling has been haphazard and opaque.
Plans to isolate people over the age of 70 in their homes for as long as four months — a radical tightening of Britain’s response — first leaked out in a blog posted Saturday by a well-connected TV reporter, Robert Peston. He called it a “wartime style” mobilization, citing a “senior government source.”Plans to isolate people over the age of 70 in their homes for as long as four months — a radical tightening of Britain’s response — first leaked out in a blog posted Saturday by a well-connected TV reporter, Robert Peston. He called it a “wartime style” mobilization, citing a “senior government source.”
Britain’s health minister, Matt Hancock, confirmed the plan in a column in The Sunday Telegraph, a newspaper favored by Mr. Johnson’s Conservative Party. But he offered few details or a timetable, and his column was kept behind a paywall on the paper’s site for several hours before it became generally available.Britain’s health minister, Matt Hancock, confirmed the plan in a column in The Sunday Telegraph, a newspaper favored by Mr. Johnson’s Conservative Party. But he offered few details or a timetable, and his column was kept behind a paywall on the paper’s site for several hours before it became generally available.
Mr. Johnson has not spoken publicly about the crisis since Thursday, prompting some on Twitter to ask #WhereIsBoris. Critics are calling for a daily televised briefing, not necessarily with the prime minister himself, but perhaps with the chief science adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, and the chief medical adviser, Chris Whitty.Mr. Johnson has not spoken publicly about the crisis since Thursday, prompting some on Twitter to ask #WhereIsBoris. Critics are calling for a daily televised briefing, not necessarily with the prime minister himself, but perhaps with the chief science adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, and the chief medical adviser, Chris Whitty.
The two doctors have become overnight celebrities in Britain, much as Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has become the face of the response in the United States. But their efforts to explain the science of coronavirus have not always gone smoothly.The two doctors have become overnight celebrities in Britain, much as Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has become the face of the response in the United States. But their efforts to explain the science of coronavirus have not always gone smoothly.
On Friday, Dr. Vallance rattled nerves when he said there was merit in building up “herd immunity” in the British population, since it would make Britain more resilient to a second wave of outbreaks, which are often characteristic of influenza epidemics.On Friday, Dr. Vallance rattled nerves when he said there was merit in building up “herd immunity” in the British population, since it would make Britain more resilient to a second wave of outbreaks, which are often characteristic of influenza epidemics.
That could involve 60 percent of Britons becoming infected, something like 40 million people. That could mean hundreds of thousands of deaths, particularly among the older Britons who make up a disproportionate percentage of Mr. Johnson’s party.That could involve 60 percent of Britons becoming infected, something like 40 million people. That could mean hundreds of thousands of deaths, particularly among the older Britons who make up a disproportionate percentage of Mr. Johnson’s party.
“If you suppress something very, very hard,” Dr. Vallance said to the BBC, “when you release those measures it bounces back, and it bounces back at the wrong time.”“If you suppress something very, very hard,” Dr. Vallance said to the BBC, “when you release those measures it bounces back, and it bounces back at the wrong time.”
In their letter, scientists sharply criticized Dr. Vallance’s promotion of “herd immunity” because they said it would impose an undue burden on Britain’s public health system and risk even more lives. Mr. Hancock, the heath minister, quickly clarified that encouraging mass infections was a “scientific concept,” not part of the government’s strategy for dealing with the outbreak.In their letter, scientists sharply criticized Dr. Vallance’s promotion of “herd immunity” because they said it would impose an undue burden on Britain’s public health system and risk even more lives. Mr. Hancock, the heath minister, quickly clarified that encouraging mass infections was a “scientific concept,” not part of the government’s strategy for dealing with the outbreak.
The government, scientists said, also erred in describing herd immunity as part of a strategy rather than simply as a possible byproduct of the inevitable spread. They said it was not clear how quickly people might develop immunity to the virus or, crucially, for how long it would last. Huge numbers of older and more vulnerable people could die as younger people built up immunity.The government, scientists said, also erred in describing herd immunity as part of a strategy rather than simply as a possible byproduct of the inevitable spread. They said it was not clear how quickly people might develop immunity to the virus or, crucially, for how long it would last. Huge numbers of older and more vulnerable people could die as younger people built up immunity.
“They conjured up this fantasy idea about letting the virus rip to build up herd immunity as a post-hoc explanation for their failure,” said John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for the northwest of England. “And that got hammered over a 24-hour period for it being unethical to say, ‘We’re prepared to let people die rather than try to contain the thing.’”“They conjured up this fantasy idea about letting the virus rip to build up herd immunity as a post-hoc explanation for their failure,” said John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for the northwest of England. “And that got hammered over a 24-hour period for it being unethical to say, ‘We’re prepared to let people die rather than try to contain the thing.’”
Epidemiologists said the strategy of delaying widespread shutdowns became more difficult to sustain once the country’s testing program fell behind the spread of the virus. That left Mr. Johnson’s scientific advisers in the dark about whether there were more localized outbreaks and how many undetected cases existed.Epidemiologists said the strategy of delaying widespread shutdowns became more difficult to sustain once the country’s testing program fell behind the spread of the virus. That left Mr. Johnson’s scientific advisers in the dark about whether there were more localized outbreaks and how many undetected cases existed.
“There was a false sense of security that everything was being done well,” said Roy Anderson, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London. “And it was — full marks to the N.H.S. and Public Health England. But it has slightly run away from them in the last week.”“There was a false sense of security that everything was being done well,” said Roy Anderson, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London. “And it was — full marks to the N.H.S. and Public Health England. But it has slightly run away from them in the last week.”
Once the number of cases exploded, the timeline suddenly shrank for keeping older people inside and steering everyone else out of crowded trains and pubs, experts said. Private companies also took matters into their own hands, halting soccer matches and emptying office buildings.Once the number of cases exploded, the timeline suddenly shrank for keeping older people inside and steering everyone else out of crowded trains and pubs, experts said. Private companies also took matters into their own hands, halting soccer matches and emptying office buildings.
Britain, Mr. Ashton said, was not testing enough people to know whether its models of the epidemic’s growth were correct. Mr. Johnson declared Thursday that the country was restricting testing to hospital cases; people experiencing milder symptoms should assume they would not be tested and stay home.Britain, Mr. Ashton said, was not testing enough people to know whether its models of the epidemic’s growth were correct. Mr. Johnson declared Thursday that the country was restricting testing to hospital cases; people experiencing milder symptoms should assume they would not be tested and stay home.
Updated June 12, 2020Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
That made it difficult for Britain to crack down more strictly on the movements of people with mild cases and develop an accurate picture of its outbreak, said Martin Hibberd, a professor of infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.That made it difficult for Britain to crack down more strictly on the movements of people with mild cases and develop an accurate picture of its outbreak, said Martin Hibberd, a professor of infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Britain has shown signs of increasing its testing capacity, administering roughly 5,000 tests between Friday and Saturday, an increase of several thousand from earlier daily totals. But experts said more testing was needed to determine what areas were most affected, and whether nonessential travel should be restricted.Britain has shown signs of increasing its testing capacity, administering roughly 5,000 tests between Friday and Saturday, an increase of several thousand from earlier daily totals. But experts said more testing was needed to determine what areas were most affected, and whether nonessential travel should be restricted.
Even as public anger at the government response mounted, scientists said there was no unanimity about the right course of action. “It’s a very difficult and uncertain science,” said Helen Ward, a professor of public health at Imperial College London.Even as public anger at the government response mounted, scientists said there was no unanimity about the right course of action. “It’s a very difficult and uncertain science,” said Helen Ward, a professor of public health at Imperial College London.
Some said the government was right to consider the economic consequences of mass shutdowns: Broad layoffs could have terrible consequences for people’s health, too. Before older people are told to isolate themselves, people need to make plans get them food, medication and basic care.Some said the government was right to consider the economic consequences of mass shutdowns: Broad layoffs could have terrible consequences for people’s health, too. Before older people are told to isolate themselves, people need to make plans get them food, medication and basic care.
In the absence of government guidance about avoiding crowded places or extra trips to the shops, Mr. Ashton said people would have to practice social distancing, organize to look after older people and take care of sick people at home.In the absence of government guidance about avoiding crowded places or extra trips to the shops, Mr. Ashton said people would have to practice social distancing, organize to look after older people and take care of sick people at home.
The paradox of Mr. Johnson’s approach, critics said, is that in trying not to be what they called a nanny state, Britain may end up taking more authoritarian measures than if the government had acted sooner.The paradox of Mr. Johnson’s approach, critics said, is that in trying not to be what they called a nanny state, Britain may end up taking more authoritarian measures than if the government had acted sooner.
“There’s no trust with the government, and that’s a terrible situation to be in,” Mr. Ashton said. “They need to rebuild trust very quickly.”“There’s no trust with the government, and that’s a terrible situation to be in,” Mr. Ashton said. “They need to rebuild trust very quickly.”