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| Mapping the Social Network of Coronavirus | Mapping the Social Network of Coronavirus |
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| BOSTON — The offices of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University sit 10 floors above Boston’s Back Bay. Wraparound windows offer a floating panorama of the city, from Boston Common to Fenway Park, as a half-dozen young analysts toil quietly at computers. | BOSTON — The offices of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University sit 10 floors above Boston’s Back Bay. Wraparound windows offer a floating panorama of the city, from Boston Common to Fenway Park, as a half-dozen young analysts toil quietly at computers. |
| At 10 a.m. on a recent morning, with the early calls to the World Health Organization and European doctors complete and the check-in with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scheduled for later, Alessandro Vespignani, the institute’s director, had some time to work the room. In a black blazer and jeans, he moved from cubicle to cubicle, giving each member of his team the latest updates on the coronavirus pandemic. | At 10 a.m. on a recent morning, with the early calls to the World Health Organization and European doctors complete and the check-in with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scheduled for later, Alessandro Vespignani, the institute’s director, had some time to work the room. In a black blazer and jeans, he moved from cubicle to cubicle, giving each member of his team the latest updates on the coronavirus pandemic. |
| “We call this ‘wartime,’” Dr. Vespignani said later in his office; he was seated, but his hands hadn’t stopped moving. “Before this, we were working on Ebola, and Zika, and when these things are spreading, you are working on the fly, you don’t stop. You are continually modeling networks.” | “We call this ‘wartime,’” Dr. Vespignani said later in his office; he was seated, but his hands hadn’t stopped moving. “Before this, we were working on Ebola, and Zika, and when these things are spreading, you are working on the fly, you don’t stop. You are continually modeling networks.” |
| Historically, scientists trying to anticipate the trajectory of infectious diseases focused on properties of the agent itself, like its level of contagion and lethality. But infectious diseases need help to spread their misery: humans meeting humans, in person. In the past decade or so, leading investigators have begun to incorporate social networks into their models, trying to identify and analyze patterns of individual behavior that amplify or mute potential pandemics. | Historically, scientists trying to anticipate the trajectory of infectious diseases focused on properties of the agent itself, like its level of contagion and lethality. But infectious diseases need help to spread their misery: humans meeting humans, in person. In the past decade or so, leading investigators have begun to incorporate social networks into their models, trying to identify and analyze patterns of individual behavior that amplify or mute potential pandemics. |
| Those findings, in turn, inform policy recommendations. When does it make sense to shut down schools or workplaces? When will closing a border make a difference, and when won’t it? World health officials consult with social network modelers on a near daily basis, and Dr. Vespignani’s lab is part of one of several consortiums being consulted in the crucial and perhaps disruptive decisions coming in the next few weeks. On Friday, in an analysis posted by the journal Science, the group estimated that China’s travel ban on Wuhan delayed the growth of the epidemic by only a few days in mainland China and by two to three weeks elsewhere. “Moving forward we expect that travel restrictions to COVID-19 affected areas will have modest effects,” the team concluded. | Those findings, in turn, inform policy recommendations. When does it make sense to shut down schools or workplaces? When will closing a border make a difference, and when won’t it? World health officials consult with social network modelers on a near daily basis, and Dr. Vespignani’s lab is part of one of several consortiums being consulted in the crucial and perhaps disruptive decisions coming in the next few weeks. On Friday, in an analysis posted by the journal Science, the group estimated that China’s travel ban on Wuhan delayed the growth of the epidemic by only a few days in mainland China and by two to three weeks elsewhere. “Moving forward we expect that travel restrictions to COVID-19 affected areas will have modest effects,” the team concluded. |
| “Today, with the enormous computing power available on the cloud, Dr. Vespignani and other colleagues can model the entire world using” publicly available data, said Dr. Elizabeth Halloran, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Washington and a senior researcher at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. “On the one hand, there is the rise of network science, and on the other, there is the enormous rise in computing power.” | “Today, with the enormous computing power available on the cloud, Dr. Vespignani and other colleagues can model the entire world using” publicly available data, said Dr. Elizabeth Halloran, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Washington and a senior researcher at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. “On the one hand, there is the rise of network science, and on the other, there is the enormous rise in computing power.” |
| Dr. Vespignani came to network analysis through physics. After completing a Ph.D. in his native Italy, he took up postdoctoral studies at Yale, where he began to focus on applying computational techniques to epidemiology and geographical data. | Dr. Vespignani came to network analysis through physics. After completing a Ph.D. in his native Italy, he took up postdoctoral studies at Yale, where he began to focus on applying computational techniques to epidemiology and geographical data. |
| “Look, I am Roman, and I am a fan of Lazio,” the soccer team, he said. “We were in first place — finally, after how many years? — and some fans think the coronavirus is a conspiracy against Lazio. I don’t say this to be funny, but to say: Each social network functions in its own way.” | “Look, I am Roman, and I am a fan of Lazio,” the soccer team, he said. “We were in first place — finally, after how many years? — and some fans think the coronavirus is a conspiracy against Lazio. I don’t say this to be funny, but to say: Each social network functions in its own way.” |
| He was on his feet again and roaming past a row of glass-walled offices. At one point he stuck his head into an office where Ana Pastore y Piontti, a physicist and research associate, was working on one of the problems du jour: school closings, analyzed state by state and region by region. Health officials across the country are grappling with whether to close local schools — which ones, how soon, and for how long. | He was on his feet again and roaming past a row of glass-walled offices. At one point he stuck his head into an office where Ana Pastore y Piontti, a physicist and research associate, was working on one of the problems du jour: school closings, analyzed state by state and region by region. Health officials across the country are grappling with whether to close local schools — which ones, how soon, and for how long. |
| “Ana’s working on this right now, we want to be able to estimate the effects,” Dr. Vespignani said. | “Ana’s working on this right now, we want to be able to estimate the effects,” Dr. Vespignani said. |
| Her project, like many others at the institute, uses census data, which reveals the composition of nearly every American household: the number of adults and children, and their ages. From a single household, a large map can be constructed. First, the connections between mom, dad, son and daughter. Added next are dad’s connections at the shop, mom’s at an office, and the children’s at their respective schools. The analysis might determine that, say, a 12-year-old boy living in central Redmond, Wash., near Seattle, will come into regular contact with his parents, his sister, and an average of 20.5 fellow students at his local middle school. | Her project, like many others at the institute, uses census data, which reveals the composition of nearly every American household: the number of adults and children, and their ages. From a single household, a large map can be constructed. First, the connections between mom, dad, son and daughter. Added next are dad’s connections at the shop, mom’s at an office, and the children’s at their respective schools. The analysis might determine that, say, a 12-year-old boy living in central Redmond, Wash., near Seattle, will come into regular contact with his parents, his sister, and an average of 20.5 fellow students at his local middle school. |
| Repeating the process with nearby households generates a dense digital map of interconnections over an entire community. On Dr. Pastore y Piontti’s computer monitor, it resembles a complex electrical circuit, with multicolored wires and cables to and from packed hubs of interaction. | Repeating the process with nearby households generates a dense digital map of interconnections over an entire community. On Dr. Pastore y Piontti’s computer monitor, it resembles a complex electrical circuit, with multicolored wires and cables to and from packed hubs of interaction. |
| “Think of it like tracing all regular interactions in the video game SimCity,” she said. | “Think of it like tracing all regular interactions in the video game SimCity,” she said. |
| To this map, she adds still more connections, incorporating data on travel in and out of that community — by air, train or bus (if such information is available). The final result, which she calls a “contact matrix,” looks like a rough heat map — a colored slide showing who is most likely to interact with whom, by age. From this she subtracts out of all the school interactions, revealing an estimate of how many fewer interactions — and potential new infections — would occur by closing certain schools. | To this map, she adds still more connections, incorporating data on travel in and out of that community — by air, train or bus (if such information is available). The final result, which she calls a “contact matrix,” looks like a rough heat map — a colored slide showing who is most likely to interact with whom, by age. From this she subtracts out of all the school interactions, revealing an estimate of how many fewer interactions — and potential new infections — would occur by closing certain schools. |
| “Each country, each state, can be very different, depending on the patterns of interaction and compositions of households,” Dr. Pastore y Piontti said. “And then there is the question of what is most effective: a week of closing, or two weeks, or closed until next school year.” | “Each country, each state, can be very different, depending on the patterns of interaction and compositions of households,” Dr. Pastore y Piontti said. “And then there is the question of what is most effective: a week of closing, or two weeks, or closed until next school year.” |
| Dr. Vespignani had disappeared back into his own office with a pair of senior analysts. They were huddled around a speakerphone, running through the latest modeling changes with an outside researcher. The lab is part of a consortium that advises the C.D.C., and fields continual calls from infectious-disease mapping operations around the world. | Dr. Vespignani had disappeared back into his own office with a pair of senior analysts. They were huddled around a speakerphone, running through the latest modeling changes with an outside researcher. The lab is part of a consortium that advises the C.D.C., and fields continual calls from infectious-disease mapping operations around the world. |
| The conversation and consulting are nonstop, because the institute must navigate the limitations inherent to all predictive modeling. One challenge is that important venues of disease progression cannot all be anticipated: cruise ships, for example. Another is factoring in random events — say, an infected person who suddenly decides that now is the moment to take a dream trip to Spain. | The conversation and consulting are nonstop, because the institute must navigate the limitations inherent to all predictive modeling. One challenge is that important venues of disease progression cannot all be anticipated: cruise ships, for example. Another is factoring in random events — say, an infected person who suddenly decides that now is the moment to take a dream trip to Spain. |
| “It may seem like a small thing at the time, but after the fact you say, ‘Oh yeah, that was hugely important,’” said Duncan Watts, a computer and information scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. “How do you handle these unexpected factors?” | “It may seem like a small thing at the time, but after the fact you say, ‘Oh yeah, that was hugely important,’” said Duncan Watts, a computer and information scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. “How do you handle these unexpected factors?” |
| Finally, as people become more informed about the coronavirus, their behavior will change, sometimes drastically and en masse. | Finally, as people become more informed about the coronavirus, their behavior will change, sometimes drastically and en masse. |
| Updated June 16, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| “A good analogy is a storm,” said Dr. Steven Riley, a professor of infectious-disease dynamics at Imperial College London, which has done modeling for decades. “You can forecast a bad storm in a particular place, and people will take out an umbrella and put on a coat. Well, the impact is less for those people but has no effect on the storm. With infectious diseases, people’s precautions — like social distancing — do change the trajectory of the disease, and it’s very hard to predict or model that.” | “A good analogy is a storm,” said Dr. Steven Riley, a professor of infectious-disease dynamics at Imperial College London, which has done modeling for decades. “You can forecast a bad storm in a particular place, and people will take out an umbrella and put on a coat. Well, the impact is less for those people but has no effect on the storm. With infectious diseases, people’s precautions — like social distancing — do change the trajectory of the disease, and it’s very hard to predict or model that.” |
| By now Dr. Vespignani, in motion again, had cornered a visiting colleague, Mauricio Santillana, director of the Machine Intelligence Research Lab at Harvard Medical School. | By now Dr. Vespignani, in motion again, had cornered a visiting colleague, Mauricio Santillana, director of the Machine Intelligence Research Lab at Harvard Medical School. |
| Dr. Santillana works to understand how the behavior of individuals changes from day to day in the midst of a pandemic. For insight, he draws on a vast array of variables, including mentions of certain words — “fever,” “pneumonia,” “coronavirus” — in online searches and social-media comments. Together, he and Dr. Vespignani are trying to work out how to best incorporate this continuously updated analysis into the travel and geographical models used at the institute. | Dr. Santillana works to understand how the behavior of individuals changes from day to day in the midst of a pandemic. For insight, he draws on a vast array of variables, including mentions of certain words — “fever,” “pneumonia,” “coronavirus” — in online searches and social-media comments. Together, he and Dr. Vespignani are trying to work out how to best incorporate this continuously updated analysis into the travel and geographical models used at the institute. |
| “We can look, for example, at when X number of people are searching for ‘fever’ online, there were Y number of people who ended up in the hospital,” Dr. Santillana said. “We can then use that kind of day-to-day data to continually update these social-network models.” | “We can look, for example, at when X number of people are searching for ‘fever’ online, there were Y number of people who ended up in the hospital,” Dr. Santillana said. “We can then use that kind of day-to-day data to continually update these social-network models.” |
| All of this, in raw computational terms, is just the beginning of the campaign. No single predictive model is enough; the Vespignani lab, and their colleagues around the world, run millions of simulations regularly, to help gauge which outcomes are the most likely in a world that changes daily. Google has granted him free space in the cloud to do so, because the in-house computing power is not nearly fast enough. | All of this, in raw computational terms, is just the beginning of the campaign. No single predictive model is enough; the Vespignani lab, and their colleagues around the world, run millions of simulations regularly, to help gauge which outcomes are the most likely in a world that changes daily. Google has granted him free space in the cloud to do so, because the in-house computing power is not nearly fast enough. |
| How well this modeling works, and whether it will help contain the virus, is hard to know while the battle is being waged, Dr. Vespignani said: “It’s in peacetime, between outbreaks, that we can do the real science, and improve the models. Let us hope that comes soon.” | How well this modeling works, and whether it will help contain the virus, is hard to know while the battle is being waged, Dr. Vespignani said: “It’s in peacetime, between outbreaks, that we can do the real science, and improve the models. Let us hope that comes soon.” |