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How Worried Should You Be About the Coronavirus? How Worried Should You Be About the Coronavirus?
(8 days later)
One of the most common questions asked of health experts about the new coronavirus is some variation of the same thing: How worried should I be?One of the most common questions asked of health experts about the new coronavirus is some variation of the same thing: How worried should I be?
It’s a complicated question for two reasons.It’s a complicated question for two reasons.
First, while global knowledge of Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, is growing every day, much remains unknown. Many cases are thought to be mild or asymptomatic, for example, making it hard to gauge how wide the virus has spread or how deadly it is.First, while global knowledge of Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, is growing every day, much remains unknown. Many cases are thought to be mild or asymptomatic, for example, making it hard to gauge how wide the virus has spread or how deadly it is.
Second, much of the risk comes not from the virus itself but from how it affects the societies it hits.Second, much of the risk comes not from the virus itself but from how it affects the societies it hits.
For most people, the disease is probably not particularly deadly; health officials tend to put it somewhere within range of an unusually severe seasonal flu. Even in a global pandemic, it’s expected to kill fewer people than the flu virus. Data so far suggests that if you catch the coronavirus, you may be likelier to have no symptoms at all than to require hospitalization.For most people, the disease is probably not particularly deadly; health officials tend to put it somewhere within range of an unusually severe seasonal flu. Even in a global pandemic, it’s expected to kill fewer people than the flu virus. Data so far suggests that if you catch the coronavirus, you may be likelier to have no symptoms at all than to require hospitalization.
The coronavirus is thought to be much more dangerous for people over age 70 or with existing health conditions such as diabetes. This is also true of the flu.The coronavirus is thought to be much more dangerous for people over age 70 or with existing health conditions such as diabetes. This is also true of the flu.
But because the coronavirus spreads widely and quickly, it can overwhelm local health systems in a way that the flu does not.But because the coronavirus spreads widely and quickly, it can overwhelm local health systems in a way that the flu does not.
This is thought to have driven the unusually high mortality rate in Hubei, the region of China where the coronavirus first spread. Officials, unprepared for the outbreak, were caught without sufficient hospital beds or health care workers, meaning that many people who might have survived with better care did not. In South Korea, where officials were better prepared, the mortality rate has been a fraction of that in Hubei — so far, about that of the flu.This is thought to have driven the unusually high mortality rate in Hubei, the region of China where the coronavirus first spread. Officials, unprepared for the outbreak, were caught without sufficient hospital beds or health care workers, meaning that many people who might have survived with better care did not. In South Korea, where officials were better prepared, the mortality rate has been a fraction of that in Hubei — so far, about that of the flu.
But the disease’s spread, along with measures to contain it, is also bringing disruptions that even the worst flu does not. Economic slowdowns, supply chain disruptions, school closures, public transit restrictions and mandatory work-from-home policies all exact tolls, whether you get sick or not.But the disease’s spread, along with measures to contain it, is also bringing disruptions that even the worst flu does not. Economic slowdowns, supply chain disruptions, school closures, public transit restrictions and mandatory work-from-home policies all exact tolls, whether you get sick or not.
So how worried should you be?So how worried should you be?
Let me answer with a personal anecdote. In early December, I fell ill with symptoms that just happened to mirror those of a serious Covid-19 infection. I was bedridden for weeks with pneumonia and, for some stretches, had trouble breathing.Let me answer with a personal anecdote. In early December, I fell ill with symptoms that just happened to mirror those of a serious Covid-19 infection. I was bedridden for weeks with pneumonia and, for some stretches, had trouble breathing.
It was unpleasant and disruptive. But I was basically fine. A couple of doctor visits and timely prescriptions ensured that the symptoms posed no serious risk.It was unpleasant and disruptive. But I was basically fine. A couple of doctor visits and timely prescriptions ensured that the symptoms posed no serious risk.
Family and friends helped pick up the slack on my personal obligations. My colleagues did the same at work.Family and friends helped pick up the slack on my personal obligations. My colleagues did the same at work.
All told, the net societal, economic and public health impact of my illness was negligible.All told, the net societal, economic and public health impact of my illness was negligible.
But my symptoms were bearable because I’m relatively young and don’t have existing health conditions. Otherwise, they could have required hospitalization or posed a risk of death.But my symptoms were bearable because I’m relatively young and don’t have existing health conditions. Otherwise, they could have required hospitalization or posed a risk of death.
And my illness's societal toll was negligible because I am just one person. As we’ve seen from the coronavirus’s spread, when a community is hit by thousands or tens of thousands of cases at once, this brings systemic risks that a one-off illness like mine does not.And my illness's societal toll was negligible because I am just one person. As we’ve seen from the coronavirus’s spread, when a community is hit by thousands or tens of thousands of cases at once, this brings systemic risks that a one-off illness like mine does not.
Consider a scenario in which my relatively mild illness had affected not just me but much of my community.Consider a scenario in which my relatively mild illness had affected not just me but much of my community.
My local health office might not have been able to see me as quickly or as often. I would have still been fine, if more uncomfortable and more worried.My local health office might not have been able to see me as quickly or as often. I would have still been fine, if more uncomfortable and more worried.
But my neighbors who are older or who have existing health conditions might have required hospitalization. They would have been at greater risk of dying — particularly if overrun hospitals had to turn some away.But my neighbors who are older or who have existing health conditions might have required hospitalization. They would have been at greater risk of dying — particularly if overrun hospitals had to turn some away.
China’s experience also suggests that, in an outbreak, you could have a harder time getting care for health ailments of any sort.China’s experience also suggests that, in an outbreak, you could have a harder time getting care for health ailments of any sort.
Then there is the social burden. Friends and family who helped pick up the slack for me would have been less able to do so if they were dealing with lots of sick friends at once, or were sick themselves.Then there is the social burden. Friends and family who helped pick up the slack for me would have been less able to do so if they were dealing with lots of sick friends at once, or were sick themselves.
Imagine if much of your family and social circle became ill simultaneously. Who would assume your child care or elder care responsibilities? How much would you have to pick up for others? In countries with major outbreaks, the burdens have fallen on nearly everyone, sick or not.Imagine if much of your family and social circle became ill simultaneously. Who would assume your child care or elder care responsibilities? How much would you have to pick up for others? In countries with major outbreaks, the burdens have fallen on nearly everyone, sick or not.
Government measures to limit the coronaviruses’s spread can increase those burdens.Government measures to limit the coronaviruses’s spread can increase those burdens.
In Italy and Japan, school closures have required parents to stay home from work for weeks at a time. That brings a financial cost for families that need to miss work or hire help, as well as an educational cost for children out of class.In Italy and Japan, school closures have required parents to stay home from work for weeks at a time. That brings a financial cost for families that need to miss work or hire help, as well as an educational cost for children out of class.
Transit restrictions and other measures bring more hardship, particularly for part-time workers who can’t rely on paid time off. It all adds up.Transit restrictions and other measures bring more hardship, particularly for part-time workers who can’t rely on paid time off. It all adds up.
Economic disruptions can be severe as well. One of my neighbors works for a company that manufactures consumer technology. Another works for a global marketing firm. A couple are doctors.Economic disruptions can be severe as well. One of my neighbors works for a company that manufactures consumer technology. Another works for a global marketing firm. A couple are doctors.
If our employers were all hit with big staffing shortfalls at the same time, even if that lasted only a month or so, the economic consequences could quickly grow.If our employers were all hit with big staffing shortfalls at the same time, even if that lasted only a month or so, the economic consequences could quickly grow.
Updated June 24, 2020 Updated June 30, 2020
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If supply chain breakdowns worsen, it could become harder to find products that rely on parts or materials from affected countries — which, in today’s globalized world, could be almost anything.If supply chain breakdowns worsen, it could become harder to find products that rely on parts or materials from affected countries — which, in today’s globalized world, could be almost anything.
Maybe the manufacturer has trouble buying parts from its suppliers in Asia. Maybe the marketing firm loses a couple of corporate clients in Italy, as companies there tighten their belts. That can take on a domino effect all its own as global economic supply and demand feed each other’s decline.Maybe the manufacturer has trouble buying parts from its suppliers in Asia. Maybe the marketing firm loses a couple of corporate clients in Italy, as companies there tighten their belts. That can take on a domino effect all its own as global economic supply and demand feed each other’s decline.
A global slowdown, even a brief one, means layoffs at a time when governments will also have less tax revenue to fund social safety nets. At the same time, a pandemic means that virtually everyone could face unusually high health care, child care and elder care burdens.A global slowdown, even a brief one, means layoffs at a time when governments will also have less tax revenue to fund social safety nets. At the same time, a pandemic means that virtually everyone could face unusually high health care, child care and elder care burdens.
Much as the virus’s direct impact on your health depends on your personal details, such as your age, any systemic risk from an outbreak also varies based on your personal context.Much as the virus’s direct impact on your health depends on your personal details, such as your age, any systemic risk from an outbreak also varies based on your personal context.
If you live someplace with good governance, along with plentiful health care and economic resources, the risk to you is likely to be lower. The state will be better able to absorb any societal and economic burden and, if you fall ill, to ensure you the appropriate care.If you live someplace with good governance, along with plentiful health care and economic resources, the risk to you is likely to be lower. The state will be better able to absorb any societal and economic burden and, if you fall ill, to ensure you the appropriate care.
As in Italy or Japan, people in wealthier countries may also be able to rely on government-funded assistance.As in Italy or Japan, people in wealthier countries may also be able to rely on government-funded assistance.
But if you live someplace where state and society function less effectively, the consequences are likely to be greater — and the burden pushed onto individual families. An economic slowdown might also be more painful and longer lasting.But if you live someplace where state and society function less effectively, the consequences are likely to be greater — and the burden pushed onto individual families. An economic slowdown might also be more painful and longer lasting.
Part-time workers like restaurant servers or Uber drivers will feel more consequences. Any time off is likely to be unpaid and the financial toll harder to absorb. Many may feel greater pressure to keep working, even if they have an existing condition that makes Covid-19 more dangerous.Part-time workers like restaurant servers or Uber drivers will feel more consequences. Any time off is likely to be unpaid and the financial toll harder to absorb. Many may feel greater pressure to keep working, even if they have an existing condition that makes Covid-19 more dangerous.
People in poorer countries may also be more vulnerable, as Iran’s example shows, if health services are more easily overwhelmed and families are less able to absorb any financial hit.People in poorer countries may also be more vulnerable, as Iran’s example shows, if health services are more easily overwhelmed and families are less able to absorb any financial hit.
As is so often the case, people who live in wealthy countries, who are wealthy themselves or who have good protections at work will be much better positioned to ride things out.As is so often the case, people who live in wealthy countries, who are wealthy themselves or who have good protections at work will be much better positioned to ride things out.
For many of them, the systemic risk of a coronavirus outbreak is probably about on par with the health risk I faced with my own illness: unpleasant and disruptive, but probably far from catastrophic.For many of them, the systemic risk of a coronavirus outbreak is probably about on par with the health risk I faced with my own illness: unpleasant and disruptive, but probably far from catastrophic.
Maybe it’s easiest, then, to think of this as less of a seismic shift in global circumstances than a deepening of one of our era’s most consequential trends, in which the well-off are cushioned and protected, while the burdens are pushed onto the poorer and the working class.Maybe it’s easiest, then, to think of this as less of a seismic shift in global circumstances than a deepening of one of our era’s most consequential trends, in which the well-off are cushioned and protected, while the burdens are pushed onto the poorer and the working class.
In other words, a story of inequality older than the novel coronavirus.In other words, a story of inequality older than the novel coronavirus.