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Coronavirus Fears Drive Stocks Down for 6th Day and Into Correction Coronavirus Fears Drive Stocks Down for 6th Day and Into Correction
(3 days later)
The global stock market slid for the sixth straight day on Thursday, as the S&P 500 index plunged to its worst loss in almost nine years and investors worldwide grew increasingly fearful that the coronavirus outbreak could cause a recession as it squeezes corporate profits.The global stock market slid for the sixth straight day on Thursday, as the S&P 500 index plunged to its worst loss in almost nine years and investors worldwide grew increasingly fearful that the coronavirus outbreak could cause a recession as it squeezes corporate profits.
The S&P 500, which just last Wednesday reached a record high, slid 4.4 percent, its worst day since August 2011. The index is down 12 percent since that peak, entering what is known as a correction — a drop of at least 10 percent that signals a more significant sell-off than a few days of pessimistic trading.The S&P 500, which just last Wednesday reached a record high, slid 4.4 percent, its worst day since August 2011. The index is down 12 percent since that peak, entering what is known as a correction — a drop of at least 10 percent that signals a more significant sell-off than a few days of pessimistic trading.
The downturn continued on Friday, as Asian markets closed sharply lower and European stocks tumbled at the start of trading.The downturn continued on Friday, as Asian markets closed sharply lower and European stocks tumbled at the start of trading.
The widening scope of the health crisis threatens to overwhelm global supply chains, especially in China, the world’s second-largest economy after the United States. In addition, the outbreak could crush consumer demand, as people limit travel or stay home even without a government order to do so.The widening scope of the health crisis threatens to overwhelm global supply chains, especially in China, the world’s second-largest economy after the United States. In addition, the outbreak could crush consumer demand, as people limit travel or stay home even without a government order to do so.
Scott Clemons, the chief investment strategist for private banking at Brown Brothers Harriman, said the outbreak’s potential to alter American consumers’ habits was at the heart of the sell-off.Scott Clemons, the chief investment strategist for private banking at Brown Brothers Harriman, said the outbreak’s potential to alter American consumers’ habits was at the heart of the sell-off.
“To the degree that consumers change their behavior — so they stop going out to eat, they don’t take the vacation, they cancel the business trip — that consumption, that spending, personal consumption is 68 percent of G.D.P.,” Mr. Clemons said.“To the degree that consumers change their behavior — so they stop going out to eat, they don’t take the vacation, they cancel the business trip — that consumption, that spending, personal consumption is 68 percent of G.D.P.,” Mr. Clemons said.
Over the past few days, companies as varied as United Airlines, Mastercard and Pfizer have said the outbreak poses a threat to their 2020 earnings.Over the past few days, companies as varied as United Airlines, Mastercard and Pfizer have said the outbreak poses a threat to their 2020 earnings.
And analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted on Thursday that companies in the S&P 500 would generate no profit growth this year as a result of the crisis, because of a “severe decline in Chinese economic activity,” disruption in the supply chain for American companies and a slowdown in the U.S. economy.And analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted on Thursday that companies in the S&P 500 would generate no profit growth this year as a result of the crisis, because of a “severe decline in Chinese economic activity,” disruption in the supply chain for American companies and a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
On Wednesday, President Trump addressed the outbreak, expressing confidence that the risk to the United States was low. But investors were clearly not convinced.On Wednesday, President Trump addressed the outbreak, expressing confidence that the risk to the United States was low. But investors were clearly not convinced.
“When you get into a situation like this, it cascades, and that really becomes a problem,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Conn.“When you get into a situation like this, it cascades, and that really becomes a problem,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Conn.
As stocks were falling Thursday, other countries struggled to contain the outbreak.As stocks were falling Thursday, other countries struggled to contain the outbreak.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan asked all of the country’s schools to close for a month. Health officials in Germany reacted aggressively after a man with no known connection to anyone infected with the coronavirus had tested positive, closing schools and urging some who may have come in contact with him to stay home for two weeks.Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan asked all of the country’s schools to close for a month. Health officials in Germany reacted aggressively after a man with no known connection to anyone infected with the coronavirus had tested positive, closing schools and urging some who may have come in contact with him to stay home for two weeks.
In Italy, the number of coronavirus cases rose to 650, and in France they more than doubled to 38. “We have before us a crisis, an epidemic that is coming,” said President Emmanuel Macron of France.In Italy, the number of coronavirus cases rose to 650, and in France they more than doubled to 38. “We have before us a crisis, an epidemic that is coming,” said President Emmanuel Macron of France.
In Europe, Denmark, Estonia, Norway and Romania all reported infections for the first time, joining Austria, Croatia, Germany, Greece, North Macedonia, Spain, Sweden and Britain. And concerns grew about the severity of the outbreak in Iran, the source of infections in many other countries. The government there said Thursday that 245 people had been infected — including a member of President Hassan Rouhani’s cabinet and six other officials — and 26 had died.In Europe, Denmark, Estonia, Norway and Romania all reported infections for the first time, joining Austria, Croatia, Germany, Greece, North Macedonia, Spain, Sweden and Britain. And concerns grew about the severity of the outbreak in Iran, the source of infections in many other countries. The government there said Thursday that 245 people had been infected — including a member of President Hassan Rouhani’s cabinet and six other officials — and 26 had died.
The outbreak hit foreign markets hard, too, where the slump continued into Friday. Indexes in Shanghai and Japan closed 3.7 percent lower, and European markets opened sharply, with the DAX in Germany down 3.4 percent. Futures pointed to a slide when Wall Street starts trading.The outbreak hit foreign markets hard, too, where the slump continued into Friday. Indexes in Shanghai and Japan closed 3.7 percent lower, and European markets opened sharply, with the DAX in Germany down 3.4 percent. Futures pointed to a slide when Wall Street starts trading.
The S&P 500 is on track for the market’s worst week since the 2008 financial crisis, and other economic indicators are flashing warning signs.The S&P 500 is on track for the market’s worst week since the 2008 financial crisis, and other economic indicators are flashing warning signs.
Oil prices have tumbled as people cut back on travel and investors worry about a slump in industrial and consumer demand. Meanwhile, money has poured into investments like gold and government bonds, which are generally considered safer.Oil prices have tumbled as people cut back on travel and investors worry about a slump in industrial and consumer demand. Meanwhile, money has poured into investments like gold and government bonds, which are generally considered safer.
Bond markets — which are far larger than stock markets and especially sensitive to the outlook for growth and inflation — were broadcasting pessimism about the economy even before the outbreak. That pessimism only increased this week, as prices for corporate debt from even the safest of borrowers fell and investors rushed to government debt.Bond markets — which are far larger than stock markets and especially sensitive to the outlook for growth and inflation — were broadcasting pessimism about the economy even before the outbreak. That pessimism only increased this week, as prices for corporate debt from even the safest of borrowers fell and investors rushed to government debt.
Demand for U.S. Treasurys pushed up prices and drove down yields: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a closely watched barometer of investor outlook, fell to a record low of 1.29 percent.Demand for U.S. Treasurys pushed up prices and drove down yields: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a closely watched barometer of investor outlook, fell to a record low of 1.29 percent.
But the performance of stocks was especially stunning. Randy Watts, chief investment strategist at William O’Neil, an equity research and advisory firm, said the sell-off could get worse, because investors may be wary of holding on to stocks over a weekend that could bring more scary news.But the performance of stocks was especially stunning. Randy Watts, chief investment strategist at William O’Neil, an equity research and advisory firm, said the sell-off could get worse, because investors may be wary of holding on to stocks over a weekend that could bring more scary news.
Updated June 2, 2020 Updated June 5, 2020
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said.
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
“I think this is bad, especially going into a Friday,” he said.“I think this is bad, especially going into a Friday,” he said.
Shares of Microsoft, the most valuable company in the United States, fell 7 percent after the software giant said on Wednesday evening that its sales in the current quarter would be lower because of the outbreak’s effect on its supply chain. Anheuser-Busch InBev, the maker of Budweiser, forecast a steep drop in quarterly profits. Its shares fell 9 percent.Shares of Microsoft, the most valuable company in the United States, fell 7 percent after the software giant said on Wednesday evening that its sales in the current quarter would be lower because of the outbreak’s effect on its supply chain. Anheuser-Busch InBev, the maker of Budweiser, forecast a steep drop in quarterly profits. Its shares fell 9 percent.
In the United States, consumers have been a bright spot over the past year, even as the trade war prompted a broad-based slump in business investment and manufacturing. Part of the reason is that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low, which prods consumers to spend more.In the United States, consumers have been a bright spot over the past year, even as the trade war prompted a broad-based slump in business investment and manufacturing. Part of the reason is that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low, which prods consumers to spend more.
But that won’t necessarily work if factories are closed and consumers aren’t willing to risk stepping outside.But that won’t necessarily work if factories are closed and consumers aren’t willing to risk stepping outside.
“Lower interest rates are not a cure for the coronavirus,” said Mr. Clemons, the private banking strategist.“Lower interest rates are not a cure for the coronavirus,” said Mr. Clemons, the private banking strategist.
Already, the consensus estimate for first-quarter domestic growth has slipped to 1.5 percent, according to data from FactSet on Thursday, from 1.7 percent at the end of 2019.Already, the consensus estimate for first-quarter domestic growth has slipped to 1.5 percent, according to data from FactSet on Thursday, from 1.7 percent at the end of 2019.
“That moves it beyond the sphere of ‘people feel bad because their 401(k)s are down,’” Mr. Clemons said, “and into the sphere of economic reality.”“That moves it beyond the sphere of ‘people feel bad because their 401(k)s are down,’” Mr. Clemons said, “and into the sphere of economic reality.”
Reporting was contributed by Jason Horowitz, Roni Caryn Rabin, Sheri Fink, Farnaz Fassihi and Carlos Tejada.Reporting was contributed by Jason Horowitz, Roni Caryn Rabin, Sheri Fink, Farnaz Fassihi and Carlos Tejada.