It has been a tough December for retailers, and grocers have not been spared in the downturn.
It has been a tough December for retailers, and grocers have not been spared in the downturn.
But it is not just that overall sales are falling.
But it is not just that overall sales are falling.
Canny consumers have been trying to make their money go further and that has meant changing the way they shop.
Canny consumers have been trying to make their money go further and that has meant changing the way they shop.
BAKED BEANS SALES GROWTH August 18.1%September 8.8%October 6.4%November 21.7%December 22.6% Sales value compared with same month of 2007 Source: Nielsen Scantrack
BAKED BEANS SALES GROWTH August 18.1%September 8.8%October 6.4%November 21.7%December 22.6% Sales value compared with same month of 2007 Source: Nielsen Scantrack
Many of the lost sales suffered by retailers will not be from people who were considering buying something and then decided not to.
Many of the lost sales suffered by retailers will not be from people who were considering buying something and then decided not to.
They are just as likely be from customers considering buying one product and then instead, buying a different one.
They are just as likely be from customers considering buying one product and then instead, buying a different one.
So, while sales on the whole were falling in December, baked bean sales, for example, rose 22.6% in December, compared with December 2007, according to figures prepared for the BBC by Nielsen Scantrack.
So, while sales on the whole were falling in December, baked bean sales, for example, rose 22.6% in December, compared with December 2007, according to figures prepared for the BBC by the market researchers Nielsen.
A factor that might cause such a rise would be people foregoing a more substantial meal in favour of a cheaper alternative such as beans on toast.
A factor that might cause such a rise would be people foregoing a more substantial meal in favour of a cheaper alternative such as beans on toast.
There are certainly signs that they have been buying the bread for the toast.
There are certainly signs that they have been buying the bread for the toast.
Premium breads
Premium breads
December figures are not yet available, but sales of standard white sliced bread rose sharply earlier in the year, with increases of 2% in November, 15.2% in October, 20% in September and a staggering 55% in August. We're starting to see more of a stay-home economy Charles Davis, Centre for Economics and Business Research.
December figures are not yet available, but sales of standard white sliced bread rose sharply earlier in the year, with increases of 2% in November, 15.2% in October, 20% in September and a staggering 55% in August. We're starting to see more of a stay-home economy Charles Davis, Centre for Economics and Business Research.
Products that people buy more of if they have less money are called inferior products, which is an economic term and is not casting aspersions on its quality.
Products that people buy more of if they have less money are called inferior products, which is an economic term and is not casting aspersions on its quality.
White sliced bread is a classic inferior product; as people's incomes rise they tend to have a smaller proportion of staple products such as bread and rice in their diets.
White sliced bread is a classic inferior product; as people's incomes rise they tend to have a smaller proportion of staple products such as bread and rice in their diets.
They also tend to move away from standard white sliced loafs and towards premium breads such as seeded loaves, croissants and bagels.
They also tend to move away from standard white sliced loafs and towards premium breads such as seeded loaves, croissants and bagels.
Some other products show a more complicated picture.
Some other products show a more complicated picture.
Sales of sparkling wine fell by a relatively moderate 2.3% in December, but the sparkling wine figure excludes the more expensive champagne.
Sales of sparkling wine fell by a relatively moderate 2.3% in December, but the sparkling wine figure excludes the more expensive champagne.
Champagne sales fell 10% in the month, suggesting some people who would have bought champagne are trading down and buying sparkling wine instead.
Champagne sales fell 10% in the month, suggesting some people who would have bought champagne are trading down and buying sparkling wine instead.
'Stay-home economy'
'Stay-home economy'
The same may be true for olive oil, which used to be considered as a luxury product, but which showed sales growth of 6.5% in December, compared to the same month one year ago.
The same may be true for olive oil, which used to be considered as a luxury product, but which showed sales growth of 6.5% in December, compared to the same month one year ago.
The Soil Association is confident people will continue to buy organic products
The Soil Association is confident people will continue to buy organic products
Have our preferences changed so much that olive oil is now a basic staple, or are there other factors at work here?
Have our preferences changed so much that olive oil is now a basic staple, or are there other factors at work here?
It may be that consumers are sufficiently convinced of the health benefits of olive oil to be prepared to continue spending on it and are instead cutting back elsewhere.
It may be that consumers are sufficiently convinced of the health benefits of olive oil to be prepared to continue spending on it and are instead cutting back elsewhere.
Alternatively, it may be that people are trading down from ready-made dressings and are mixing their own as a cheaper option, or perhaps it is a result of people eating out less and cooking at home instead.
Alternatively, it may be that people are trading down from ready-made dressings and are mixing their own as a cheaper option, or perhaps it is a result of people eating out less and cooking at home instead.
"We're starting to see more of a stay-home economy," says Charles Davis from the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
"We're starting to see more of a stay-home economy," says Charles Davis from the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
"People are trying to find a cheaper way of doing things and are looking to prepare things at home."
"People are trying to find a cheaper way of doing things and are looking to prepare things at home."
Other signs of people seeking cheaper ways of doing things can be seen in figures for sales of supermarkets' own 'value' brands.
Other signs of people seeking cheaper ways of doing things can be seen in figures for sales of supermarkets' own 'value' brands.
Sales in this category were around 30% above the same month the previous year, every month from August to November.
Sales in this category were around 30% above the same month the previous year, every month from August to November.
"Budget own labels are big news at the moment and I expect to see solid growth in these all year," says Danielle Tolson from Nielsen.
"Budget own labels are big news at the moment and I expect to see solid growth in these all year," says Danielle Tolson from Nielsen.
"Retailers will put more support behind their own label lines and they will also introduce more as the recession continues, so growth will be strong."
"Retailers will put more support behind their own label lines and they will also introduce more as the recession continues, so growth will be strong."
'Deep green customers'
'Deep green customers'
In contrast, the figures for sales of organic products suggest that they may be regarded as luxury goods by consumers.
In contrast, the figures for sales of organic products suggest that they may be regarded as luxury goods by consumers.
Total organic sales fell by 11% in December, which Peter Melchett from the Soil Association says reflects the very difficult situation the country is in.
Total organic sales fell by 11% in December, which Peter Melchett from the Soil Association says reflects the very difficult situation the country is in.
But he predicts that organic sales are going to hold up relatively well in the downturn.
But he predicts that organic sales are going to hold up relatively well in the downturn.
Its research, "identified that the most deep green organic consumers (who buy the majority of organic products) will continue to do so, because they understand the benefits that organic food and farming delivers not only for them and their families, but also the planet", he says.
Its research, "identified that the most deep green organic consumers (who buy the majority of organic products) will continue to do so, because they understand the benefits that organic food and farming delivers not only for them and their families, but also the planet", he says.
He adds that direct sales through organic box schemes are still growing.
He adds that direct sales through organic box schemes are still growing.
More to come
More to come
As the country goes through a recession there will be winners and losers.
As the country goes through a recession there will be winners and losers.
We have already seen impressive growth from discount retailers while the big supermarkets have put money into value brands.
We have already seen impressive growth from discount retailers while the big supermarkets have put money into value brands.
In the coming weeks, BBC News will be looking in detail at how some other sectors of the economy are faring, going behind the broad economic data.
In the coming weeks, BBC News will be looking in detail at how some other sectors of the economy are faring, going behind the broad economic data.
There will be analysis of sectors such as transport, communications and the DIY market.
There will be analysis of sectors such as transport, communications and the DIY market.
Do these figures bear out the experiences of you and your family? Which products are you buying more or less of when you do your grocery shopping? What groceries are you giving up? What are you replacing them with?
Do these figures bear out the experiences of you and your family? Which products are you buying more or less of when you do your grocery shopping? What groceries are you giving up? What are you replacing them with?
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