This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/us/politics/iowa-caucuses.html

The article has changed 28 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 2 Version 3
Iowa Caucus 2020: What to Watch For and When to Expect Results Iowa Caucus 2020: What to Watch For and When to Expect Results
(about 1 hour later)
The Iowa presidential caucuses begin at 8 p.m. Eastern time at more than 1,600 sites across the state. The caucuses vary in length; small gatherings can be over in minutes, larger ones can last up to two hours.The Iowa presidential caucuses begin at 8 p.m. Eastern time at more than 1,600 sites across the state. The caucuses vary in length; small gatherings can be over in minutes, larger ones can last up to two hours.
The first results are expected at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, with most results in hand by 11 p.m.The first results are expected at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, with most results in hand by 11 p.m.
Seven Democratic candidates are mounting competitive campaigns in Iowa. They are Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusets, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the former tech executive Andrew Yang and the former hedge fund investor Tom Steyer.Seven Democratic candidates are mounting competitive campaigns in Iowa. They are Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusets, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the former tech executive Andrew Yang and the former hedge fund investor Tom Steyer.
There will also be Republican caucuses, which President Trump is expected to win handily.There will also be Republican caucuses, which President Trump is expected to win handily.
Polls show an exceptionally fluid race among Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden, Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg, with Ms. Klobuchar trailing.Polls show an exceptionally fluid race among Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden, Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg, with Ms. Klobuchar trailing.
There are 41 delegates up for grabs, a tiny number considering a candidate needs 1,991 delegates to win the party’s presidential nomination. But Iowa is all about political momentum heading into the next contest: the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 11.There are 41 delegates up for grabs, a tiny number considering a candidate needs 1,991 delegates to win the party’s presidential nomination. But Iowa is all about political momentum heading into the next contest: the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 11.
The New York Times will have the latest caucus results, comprehensive visual graphics and live political analysis and news coverage by 13 reporters across Iowa.The New York Times will have the latest caucus results, comprehensive visual graphics and live political analysis and news coverage by 13 reporters across Iowa.
DES MOINES — After more than a year of campaigning, the Democratic presidential primary gets underway Monday night in Iowa — and the race is nearly as muddled as when it began.DES MOINES — After more than a year of campaigning, the Democratic presidential primary gets underway Monday night in Iowa — and the race is nearly as muddled as when it began.
With many voters split along ideological and generational lines, and others still undecided because they were not sure who would be their best chance to defeat President Trump, any of the four leading candidates could plausibly win Iowa.With many voters split along ideological and generational lines, and others still undecided because they were not sure who would be their best chance to defeat President Trump, any of the four leading candidates could plausibly win Iowa.
Those four candidates — Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren, Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg — campaigned across Iowa over the weekend, making their final pitches to voters and, in some cases, reigniting divisions that had surfaced in the party four years ago. Mr. Sanders, considered the one to beat based on recent polling, drew most of the fire.Those four candidates — Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren, Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg — campaigned across Iowa over the weekend, making their final pitches to voters and, in some cases, reigniting divisions that had surfaced in the party four years ago. Mr. Sanders, considered the one to beat based on recent polling, drew most of the fire.
Much of the uncertainty heading into Monday night stems from the unique nature of Iowa’s caucus system. Attendees can rally behind another candidate on a second ballot if their preferred choice does not claim 15 percent in the initial round.Much of the uncertainty heading into Monday night stems from the unique nature of Iowa’s caucus system. Attendees can rally behind another candidate on a second ballot if their preferred choice does not claim 15 percent in the initial round.
It is those voters who will play the most pivotal role Monday. Mr. Sanders, for example, might garner the most overall votes on the first ballot, but if one of his rivals could amass enough support from the lesser candidates, he or she could vault past Mr. Sanders on the realignment round.It is those voters who will play the most pivotal role Monday. Mr. Sanders, for example, might garner the most overall votes on the first ballot, but if one of his rivals could amass enough support from the lesser candidates, he or she could vault past Mr. Sanders on the realignment round.
The key question, then, is where do the backers of Ms. Klobuchar, Mr. Steyer and Mr. Yang, who have all been polling below 15 percent, go on that second vote?The key question, then, is where do the backers of Ms. Klobuchar, Mr. Steyer and Mr. Yang, who have all been polling below 15 percent, go on that second vote?
But it gets even more complicated. Caucusgoers can also stand as “Uncommitted.” So those most determined fence sitters could emerge as power brokers on the second ballot.But it gets even more complicated. Caucusgoers can also stand as “Uncommitted.” So those most determined fence sitters could emerge as power brokers on the second ballot.
Welcome to Iowa — and hang on.Welcome to Iowa — and hang on.
One of the more consequential sub-primaries of Monday’s contest is the race between Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders to become the progressive standard bearer in the 2020 contest. It’s been a year since Pete Buttigieg launched his presidential campaign and 10 days since he’s been stumping nonstop in the run-up to Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, so he could be forgiven for not quite knowing where he was.
“Happy caucus day,” the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., told a crowd of excited supporters at a canvass kickoff Monday morning in West Des Moines.
“It feels great out there I don’t even know what time it is. We’ve done so many interviews. Everything comes down to today. All of the dates, all of the appearances, all of the conversations with friends and neighbors.”
No candidate has more riding on Iowa’s result than him.
Mr. Buttigieg spent much of the last week stumping in rural Iowa, drawing large crowds in sparsely populated counties that carry a disproportionate share of the state’s delegates. He’s built a strong organization to ferret out every supporter across the state: in rural Jasper County on Sunday Mr. Buttigieg had 75 volunteers canvassing for him while Mr. Biden had just two, officials said.
Mr. Buttigieg has bet his campaign on a strong finish. If he places first or second — or at least ahead of former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. — he will have an argument to be the party establishment’s alternative to Senator Bernie Sanders.
But if not he could be in big trouble.
Mr. Buttigieg has spent down nearly all of his campaign war chest on Iowa and New Hampshire, with another $2 million on TV ads in South Carolina, where his poll numbers have barely budged. It’s left him being outspent on Iowa TV in the final week before the caucuses. If he doesn’t post a strong finish in Iowa, his path becomes far narrower.
On Sunday Mr. Buttigieg predicted “victory” but, given several opportunities to define what it meant, declined each time.
“Let’s face it, we need a very strong finish here in Iowa,” he told reporters in Coralville. “This is our chance to show versus tell that we’re building the organization that can go on to defeat Donald Trump.”
One of the more consequential sub-primaries of Monday’s contest is the race between Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders to become the progressive standard-bearer in the 2020 contest.
Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren recently clashed over a private remark that she said he had made last year — telling her a woman could not win the White House — and that he denied. Though she played down the matter during the January debate, she confronted Mr. Sanders afterward in a scene captured on camera and a hot mic. “You called me a liar,” Ms. Warren told Mr. Sanders.Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren recently clashed over a private remark that she said he had made last year — telling her a woman could not win the White House — and that he denied. Though she played down the matter during the January debate, she confronted Mr. Sanders afterward in a scene captured on camera and a hot mic. “You called me a liar,” Ms. Warren told Mr. Sanders.
That moment was the exception. For the most part, these two leading liberals in the race have stayed away from direct confrontation for the last year. That has partly been strategic. Mr. Sanders has a solid base and Ms. Warren has sought to first grow her support without trying to take directly from him.That moment was the exception. For the most part, these two leading liberals in the race have stayed away from direct confrontation for the last year. That has partly been strategic. Mr. Sanders has a solid base and Ms. Warren has sought to first grow her support without trying to take directly from him.
But make no mistake: the path to the Democratic nomination for both candidates involves eventually consolidating the base of the other, if not driving them from the race entirely.But make no mistake: the path to the Democratic nomination for both candidates involves eventually consolidating the base of the other, if not driving them from the race entirely.
And the first part of that primary within the primary begins on Monday.And the first part of that primary within the primary begins on Monday.
Whoever finishes first in Iowa will then have momentum — and likely a financial boost — heading into New Hampshire and beyo Whoever finishes first in Iowa will then have momentum — and likely a financial boost — heading into New Hampshire and beyond.
One of the biggest predictors of who will finish first, second and third will be not just who votes but also how old those voters are.One of the biggest predictors of who will finish first, second and third will be not just who votes but also how old those voters are.
Age has been one of the biggest divides in the 2020 race, especially between Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders. Young voters have generally swooned for Mr. Sanders and old voters have flocked to Mr. Biden.Age has been one of the biggest divides in the 2020 race, especially between Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders. Young voters have generally swooned for Mr. Sanders and old voters have flocked to Mr. Biden.
The New York Times/Siena College poll last month showed Mr. Sanders, 78, carrying a sizable 40 percent of voters under the age of 30. That was the highest percentage for any candidate for any age group. Support for the Vermont senator declined in each successively older age bracket down to single digits — 9 percent — among those who are 65 or older.The New York Times/Siena College poll last month showed Mr. Sanders, 78, carrying a sizable 40 percent of voters under the age of 30. That was the highest percentage for any candidate for any age group. Support for the Vermont senator declined in each successively older age bracket down to single digits — 9 percent — among those who are 65 or older.
It was the opposite story for Mr. Biden, 77, who captured a 32 percent plurality of those who were 65 or older. His worst group was younger voters under 30. He only carried 10 percent of such voters.It was the opposite story for Mr. Biden, 77, who captured a 32 percent plurality of those who were 65 or older. His worst group was younger voters under 30. He only carried 10 percent of such voters.
The same split has been present in poll after poll. The Des Moines Register/CNN poll in early January showed Mr. Sanders with 38 percent of voters under 50 — and Mr. Biden with 37 percent of voters over 65.The same split has been present in poll after poll. The Des Moines Register/CNN poll in early January showed Mr. Sanders with 38 percent of voters under 50 — and Mr. Biden with 37 percent of voters over 65.
Typically, older people are more reliable voters. But caucuses are different, as our colleague Nate Cohn recently pointed out, and much of the differences in polls that show different leaders can be traced to different projected models of who will actually turn out on Monday.Typically, older people are more reliable voters. But caucuses are different, as our colleague Nate Cohn recently pointed out, and much of the differences in polls that show different leaders can be traced to different projected models of who will actually turn out on Monday.
The leaders of Iowa’s county Democrats are a group that has long been in search of a candidate to fall in love with. Since 2018, they have harbored suspicions about septuagenarian candidates and have longed for somebody fresh and new.The leaders of Iowa’s county Democrats are a group that has long been in search of a candidate to fall in love with. Since 2018, they have harbored suspicions about septuagenarian candidates and have longed for somebody fresh and new.
And now many of them think that Mr. Sanders, aged 78 and a member of Congress for three decades, is going to win the Iowa caucuses.And now many of them think that Mr. Sanders, aged 78 and a member of Congress for three decades, is going to win the Iowa caucuses.
In conversations this weekend with 24 of 99 county chairs, 14 said they believed Mr. Sanders would place first in Monday night’s caucuses. Six predicted Mr. Biden would win, while four said they still could not say who would win.In conversations this weekend with 24 of 99 county chairs, 14 said they believed Mr. Sanders would place first in Monday night’s caucuses. Six predicted Mr. Biden would win, while four said they still could not say who would win.
“I suspect that Bernie will end up in first place, as the polling indicates,” said Nathan Thompson, the party chairman in Winneshiek County. “It’s consistent with what I’ve seen in northeast Iowa.”“I suspect that Bernie will end up in first place, as the polling indicates,” said Nathan Thompson, the party chairman in Winneshiek County. “It’s consistent with what I’ve seen in northeast Iowa.”
Several acknowledged that their favorite candidate was not likely to win.Several acknowledged that their favorite candidate was not likely to win.
Marjie Foster, the Decatur County chairwoman, said she planned to caucus for Ms. Klobuchar but predicted she would finish behind Mr. Sanders and Mr. Buttigieg.Marjie Foster, the Decatur County chairwoman, said she planned to caucus for Ms. Klobuchar but predicted she would finish behind Mr. Sanders and Mr. Buttigieg.
Terry Kocher, the Humboldt County chairman, said he expected Mr. Biden to win but was hoping that Mr. Buttigieg, for whom he will caucus, did well.Terry Kocher, the Humboldt County chairman, said he expected Mr. Biden to win but was hoping that Mr. Buttigieg, for whom he will caucus, did well.
And Rachel Bly, a co-chairwoman in Poweshiek County east of Des Moines, predicted a split decision, with one candidate taking the most delegates and another winning the most raw votes.And Rachel Bly, a co-chairwoman in Poweshiek County east of Des Moines, predicted a split decision, with one candidate taking the most delegates and another winning the most raw votes.
“Sanders has pockets of support, but won’t necessarily carry the rural areas or get delegates in as many places as some of the others,” she said. “He may win the numbers game, but not the delegate game.”“Sanders has pockets of support, but won’t necessarily carry the rural areas or get delegates in as many places as some of the others,” she said. “He may win the numbers game, but not the delegate game.”
Iowa traditionally winnows the field, extinguishing the hopes of more than one candidate. But with so many Democratic hopefuls dropping out in the lead up to the caucuses, few in the party expect to see more than one contender quit after Monday night. And even that may be overstating it.Iowa traditionally winnows the field, extinguishing the hopes of more than one candidate. But with so many Democratic hopefuls dropping out in the lead up to the caucuses, few in the party expect to see more than one contender quit after Monday night. And even that may be overstating it.
With each of the major candidates having already qualified for the debate Friday in New Hampshire, and the state’s primary taking place on the following Tuesday, the challengers will likely want to at least give that state a shot.With each of the major candidates having already qualified for the debate Friday in New Hampshire, and the state’s primary taking place on the following Tuesday, the challengers will likely want to at least give that state a shot.
So what will be the impact of Iowa? It will reward the winner, giving him or her a shot of momentum and a burst of contributions.So what will be the impact of Iowa? It will reward the winner, giving him or her a shot of momentum and a burst of contributions.
But the bigger impact of the caucuses this year could be who they hurt.But the bigger impact of the caucuses this year could be who they hurt.
Ms. Klobuchar has been to all of Iowa’s 99 counties and needs a strong showing to continue in the race; Mr. Buttigieg has surged with the state’s heavily white electorate but without a solid performance may not be able to find his footing in more diverse states later this month; Ms. Warren has spent considerable time in the state and also needs liftoff here because of her relatively weak standing in the coming states.Ms. Klobuchar has been to all of Iowa’s 99 counties and needs a strong showing to continue in the race; Mr. Buttigieg has surged with the state’s heavily white electorate but without a solid performance may not be able to find his footing in more diverse states later this month; Ms. Warren has spent considerable time in the state and also needs liftoff here because of her relatively weak standing in the coming states.
And Mr. Biden will go on if he finishes out of the top two in Iowa but he will have missed his best early opportunity to take command of the race — and may find it hard to find his footing in New England, home to two of his rivals.And Mr. Biden will go on if he finishes out of the top two in Iowa but he will have missed his best early opportunity to take command of the race — and may find it hard to find his footing in New England, home to two of his rivals.
Maggie Astor contributed reporting.