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The Iowa Poll Everyone Is Waiting For Bernie Sanders Leads New Iowa Poll
(about 3 hours later)
DES MOINES — Campaign officials for the leading Democratic presidential candidates on Friday were eagerly awaiting the release of the first significant poll from Iowa in nearly two months, a drought that has left a murky picture of the Democratic primary race in a state that conducts its first-in-the-nation caucuses in less than four weeks. DES MOINES — Bernie Sanders edged ahead of his Democratic rivals in Iowa, affirming his resurgence less than four weeks before next month’s caucuses, according to a new poll from The Des Moines Register and CNN.
The Des Moines Register/CNN poll, which will be released at 6 p.m. Eastern, is considered the most authoritative of Iowa caucusgoers, and the results will be intensely analyzed for signs that any candidate has momentum heading into the Feb. 3 caucuses. The poll showed that Mr. Sanders was the first choice for 20 percent of would-be caucusgoers, a five percent increase from November, when the Register last polled the state. He was followed closely by Elizabeth Warren at 17 percent, Pete Buttigieg at 16 percent and Joseph R. Biden Jr. at 15.
The last Register poll showed Pete Buttigieg in a dominant first place, with a nine-point lead over the rest of the field that reflected on-the-ground signs of a surge. His 25 percent support was followed by Elizabeth Warren at 16 percent and Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Bernie Sanders at 15 percent. The results are the latest sign that Mr. Sanders — lifted by his loyal supporters and an unchanging message — has strong campaign momentum heading into the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses and has rebounded politically after having a heart attack in October. The poll was less kind to Mr. Buttigieg, who held a dominant lead in the last Register poll, with 25 percent support. That poll showed Ms. Warren at 16 percent and Mr. Biden at 15 percent.
But for months, the race has featured a top tier of four candidates — Mr. Buttigieg, Mr. Biden, Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren. And so far, there have been no broad signs of a shake out. To say the poll was highly anticipated is an understatement. The poll is the first significant survey from Iowa in nearly two months, a drought that has left a murky picture of the Democratic primary race in a state that conducts its first-in-the-nation caucuses. Iowans famously break late, sometimes making their final decision in the weeks and days before the caucuses occur, and every campaign will be scrutinizing the results for signs that their candidate is strengthening — and that their rivals are weakening — heading into the final stretch.
To say the poll is highly anticipated is an understatement. Iowans famously break late, sometimes making their final decision in the weeks and days before the caucuses occur, and every campaign will be scrutinizing the poll for signs that their candidate is strengthening — and that their rivals are weakening — heading into the final stretch. The poll numbers are the latest evidence that the race in Iowa remains fluid and winnable for the top four candidates, who have all crisscrossed the state in recent weeks to try to persuade supporters to come out for them on caucus night.
On the ground, conversations with campaign staff members, political officials and Iowa voters have revealed that the race remains extraordinarily fluid. Even as Iowa Democrats remain excited about Mr. Buttigieg, the 37-year-old former mayor of South Bend, Ind., they are also raising questions about his experience.
Even as Iowa Democrats remain excited about Mr. Buttigieg, the 37-year-old former mayor of South Bend, Ind., they are also raising questions about his experience.
Ms. Warren, a senator from Massachusetts, who appeared poised to break away here in late summer and early fall, has since fallen back into the rest of the top-tier and is now fighting for a robust finish that she badly needs to catapult her into the other early nominating states. Mr. Biden, the former vice president, and Mr. Sanders, a senator from Vermont, have shown signs of steadying after months of being overshadowed in Iowa.Ms. Warren, a senator from Massachusetts, who appeared poised to break away here in late summer and early fall, has since fallen back into the rest of the top-tier and is now fighting for a robust finish that she badly needs to catapult her into the other early nominating states. Mr. Biden, the former vice president, and Mr. Sanders, a senator from Vermont, have shown signs of steadying after months of being overshadowed in Iowa.
Past polls have shown Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota trailing the leaders in a distant fifth place, but her campaign is hoping that this poll will reflect the rising interest in her candidacy that is palpable at her events. Of paramount importance to many Democrats in Iowa is beating President Trump in the general election in November. But the absence of a clear front-runner, along with no indication that any one candidate will break away from the pack in the remaining weeks has left many voters unsure where to align their preferences.
The rest of the candidates in the field, including Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, are hoping for a lucky break, sure to seize on any positive signals to make the case that they are primed for a timely surge. Political officials here widely believe that there are five tickets out of Iowa this year, instead of the typical three.
The deadline to qualify for Tuesday’s Democratic debate is 11:59 p.m., and normally, an Iowa poll released hours before such a deadline could bolster candidates on the cusp of qualifying. But this time, no one is on the cusp.
Mr. Booker and the entrepreneur Andrew Yang have both met the Democratic National Committee’s donor requirement, but Mr. Yang has only one qualifying poll of the required four, and Mr. Booker has none. This means that, without a last-minute poll released by some other organization, the Iowa poll cannot qualify them.
Political officials widely believe that there are five tickets out of Iowa this year, instead of the typical three.
Much has changed since The Register last released its poll on Nov. 16. Kamala Harris, who was once considered a top-tier candidate but had seen her standing severely slip, dropped out of the race, leaving her supporters scrambling to find an alternative candidate to back. The House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump. And escalating tension with Iran has pushed foreign policy to the forefront of a primary race that had so far focused more squarely on domestic issues.Much has changed since The Register last released its poll on Nov. 16. Kamala Harris, who was once considered a top-tier candidate but had seen her standing severely slip, dropped out of the race, leaving her supporters scrambling to find an alternative candidate to back. The House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump. And escalating tension with Iran has pushed foreign policy to the forefront of a primary race that had so far focused more squarely on domestic issues.
The deadline to qualify for Tuesday’s Democratic debate is 11:59 p.m., and normally, an Iowa poll released hours before such a deadline could bolster candidates on the cusp of qualifying. But this time, no one is on the cusp.
Mr. Booker and Andrew Yang have both met the Democratic National Committee’s donor requirement, but Mr. Yang had only one qualifying poll of the required four, and Mr. Booker had none. The Iowa poll gave Mr. Yang his second qualifying mark, but it was too late.
Maggie Astor contributed from New York.Maggie Astor contributed from New York.