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| Australia bushfires live: NSW and Victoria survey damage as fires merge to form new 'megablaze' – latest updates | Australia bushfires live: NSW and Victoria survey damage as fires merge to form new 'megablaze' – latest updates |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Firefighters and property owner among those injured as megablaze burns on both sides of the Murray River in the Snowy Mountains and upper Murray region | Firefighters and property owner among those injured as megablaze burns on both sides of the Murray River in the Snowy Mountains and upper Murray region |
| I’ve just spoken to Paul Bates, who is the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning incident controller for the Ovens region today. That means he is in charge of the Abbeyard fire and protecting communities like Bright and Harrietville. | |
| He explained how they were able to reduce that fire activity yesterday, so it did not reach burn into private land. Basically: it was the helicopters. | |
| The helicopters were dropping water scooped from nearby dams. One larger aircraft dropped fire retardant around the Mount Buffalo Chalet, to further protect that heritage building. | |
| The effect of all that water bombing, Bates said, was that when the wind change came through and sent very strong south-westerly winds through the fire ground between 5pm and 8pm, pushing flames in the direction of Bright, Harrietville and surrounds, the fire did not burn as far as predicted. | |
| Then, shortly after 8pm, it rained. Not a lot — between 2mm and 5mm across the fire ground — but it was enough to further quell fire activity. If something had changed — if that fire at Wodonga had started earlier in the day and required water-bombing helicopters to be diverted, if another new fire had been sparked by lightning and required an urgent response — the more serious predictions of fire agencies could have eventuated. | |
| The fire predictions used to decide whether evacuation warnings should be sent out are based on what the fire could do without any suppression activity. | |
| Over in South Australia they are expecting none of the rainfall that parts of the east will get this week. | Over in South Australia they are expecting none of the rainfall that parts of the east will get this week. |
| But senior forecaster Jon Fischer said conditions would still be “more benign” over the coming week. | But senior forecaster Jon Fischer said conditions would still be “more benign” over the coming week. |
| Temperatures will peak on Kangaroo Island, where fires are still burning, on Monday and in the southern parts of the state on Tuesday. | Temperatures will peak on Kangaroo Island, where fires are still burning, on Monday and in the southern parts of the state on Tuesday. |
| The island also hasn’t had much rain in the last change that went through. | The island also hasn’t had much rain in the last change that went through. |
| Cooler temperatures will reduce fire danger ratings throughout the state this week but there will still be “moderate to fresh winds” that will influence fire activity. | Cooler temperatures will reduce fire danger ratings throughout the state this week but there will still be “moderate to fresh winds” that will influence fire activity. |
| “With a bit of wind about this week at times, we certainly expect fires to continue,” Fischer says. “It’s going to be a dry week.” | “With a bit of wind about this week at times, we certainly expect fires to continue,” Fischer says. “It’s going to be a dry week.” |
| Fire conditions will spike again in Victoria – but not for a few days | Fire conditions will spike again in Victoria – but not for a few days |
| Here is some more on the weather conditions ahead this week, this time in Victoria and South Australia. | Here is some more on the weather conditions ahead this week, this time in Victoria and South Australia. |
| First to Victoria, the Bureau of Meteorology says while conditions are indeed milder today, winds are keeping the fire danger rating very high in the north of the state for both today and tomorrow. The south is faring better with only moderate fire danger. | First to Victoria, the Bureau of Meteorology says while conditions are indeed milder today, winds are keeping the fire danger rating very high in the north of the state for both today and tomorrow. The south is faring better with only moderate fire danger. |
| Temperatures have been a bit cooler on Saturday but that it is not expected to last. Warmer weather will return over the coming days, however the good news is the humidity will increase. | Temperatures have been a bit cooler on Saturday but that it is not expected to last. Warmer weather will return over the coming days, however the good news is the humidity will increase. |
| “While the increase in temperature does tend to make fire danger worse, the humidity counteracts that,” senior meteorologist Richard Russell says. | “While the increase in temperature does tend to make fire danger worse, the humidity counteracts that,” senior meteorologist Richard Russell says. |
| Thunderstorms are also likely for much of the state from Wednesday through to Saturday, with the exception of the south west and the Wimmera. | Thunderstorms are also likely for much of the state from Wednesday through to Saturday, with the exception of the south west and the Wimmera. |
| And they will be wet thunderstorms this time and not the dry thunderstorms we’ve had in recent times. | And they will be wet thunderstorms this time and not the dry thunderstorms we’ve had in recent times. |
| Russell warns though that the rain over the past couple of days is “nowhere near enough” and the fires will continue and conditions will spike again at some point. | Russell warns though that the rain over the past couple of days is “nowhere near enough” and the fires will continue and conditions will spike again at some point. |
| “In the week ahead, it’s that balancing act,” he says. “There are no real strong winds either. | “In the week ahead, it’s that balancing act,” he says. “There are no real strong winds either. |
| “It’s certainly not as bad as we’ve seen recently, we are still right in the middle of summer though.” | “It’s certainly not as bad as we’ve seen recently, we are still right in the middle of summer though.” |
| The chief officer of the SA Country Fire Service says tourists and residents are now free to travel to and from Kangaroo Island. | The chief officer of the SA Country Fire Service says tourists and residents are now free to travel to and from Kangaroo Island. |
| The travel restrictions actually lifted on Friday, but chief officer Mark Jones issued a clarifying statement on Saturday saying there was still some confusion from visitors about accessing the island. | The travel restrictions actually lifted on Friday, but chief officer Mark Jones issued a clarifying statement on Saturday saying there was still some confusion from visitors about accessing the island. |
| There may have been confusion about travelling to the island. | There may have been confusion about travelling to the island. |
| The CFS has warned that there will continue to be localised flare-ups in the fire ground, and visitors need to remain aware of fire warnings and the risks of travelling to recently-burned areas. | The CFS has warned that there will continue to be localised flare-ups in the fire ground, and visitors need to remain aware of fire warnings and the risks of travelling to recently-burned areas. |
| Many locals around Bright chose not to evacuate | Many locals around Bright chose not to evacuate |
| Roper says that people appeared less likely to take the advice of emergency services to evacuate ahead of yesterday’s extreme fire activity. Even some who evacuated last Saturday, when the state of disaster powers were first invoked, chose to remain at home this time around. | Roper says that people appeared less likely to take the advice of emergency services to evacuate ahead of yesterday’s extreme fire activity. Even some who evacuated last Saturday, when the state of disaster powers were first invoked, chose to remain at home this time around. |
| “The vast majority of people that evacuated the first time chose not to go the second time,” Roper says. “They did not perceive the danger to be as great as possibly what it is.” | “The vast majority of people that evacuated the first time chose not to go the second time,” Roper says. “They did not perceive the danger to be as great as possibly what it is.” |
| Roper says some people seem to think that the fire modelling was “wrong” if a risk that was predicted doesn’t come to pass. But he says that the evacuation and “leave now” warnings were only ever intended to tell people how bad things might get on a given day, and how likely it was that the worst case scenario would occur. | Roper says some people seem to think that the fire modelling was “wrong” if a risk that was predicted doesn’t come to pass. But he says that the evacuation and “leave now” warnings were only ever intended to tell people how bad things might get on a given day, and how likely it was that the worst case scenario would occur. |
| He says he still advises that people follow the advice to leave, if they can. If they stay and need firefighting assistance, that pulls resources from elsewhere. | He says he still advises that people follow the advice to leave, if they can. If they stay and need firefighting assistance, that pulls resources from elsewhere. |
| “Staying if you are only going to look after yourself is actually quite a selfish thing to do,” he says. | “Staying if you are only going to look after yourself is actually quite a selfish thing to do,” he says. |
| Bushfires estimated to cost $90m in lost tourism | Bushfires estimated to cost $90m in lost tourism |
| It may have escaped the worst-case scenario yesterday, Alpine Shire mayor Peter Roper says, but the region will suffer a significant economic loss. It is now too late to salvage the tourist dollars lost these summer holidays, and not yet safe enough to encourage visitors to return before the end of January. | It may have escaped the worst-case scenario yesterday, Alpine Shire mayor Peter Roper says, but the region will suffer a significant economic loss. It is now too late to salvage the tourist dollars lost these summer holidays, and not yet safe enough to encourage visitors to return before the end of January. |
| “We estimate $90m in tourism losses for the Alpine Shire alone,” Roper says. | “We estimate $90m in tourism losses for the Alpine Shire alone,” Roper says. |
| “Businesses with business interruption insurance, like accommodation providers that can show bookings which were cancelled, will be all right, but for shops or our retailers, you can’t budget for that. | “Businesses with business interruption insurance, like accommodation providers that can show bookings which were cancelled, will be all right, but for shops or our retailers, you can’t budget for that. |
| “I think we might lose some businesses. That’s a possibility.” | “I think we might lose some businesses. That’s a possibility.” |
| So, what’s happening around Bright today? | So, what’s happening around Bright today? |
| It is a beautiful day in the Keiwa and Ovens valleys, the Alpine Shire mayor, Peter Roper, says. | It is a beautiful day in the Keiwa and Ovens valleys, the Alpine Shire mayor, Peter Roper, says. |
| “We had bugger all rain [last night], I think about 1mm in the Keiwa Valley,” he tells Guardian Australia. “But today is a delightful day in northeast Victoria, which is mental. You wouldn’t know there was a fire.” | “We had bugger all rain [last night], I think about 1mm in the Keiwa Valley,” he tells Guardian Australia. “But today is a delightful day in northeast Victoria, which is mental. You wouldn’t know there was a fire.” |
| Yesterday the Keiwa and Ovens Valleys were blanketed with smoke from the Abbeyard fire and concerned fire might even threaten Harrietville and Bright. | Yesterday the Keiwa and Ovens Valleys were blanketed with smoke from the Abbeyard fire and concerned fire might even threaten Harrietville and Bright. |
| You couldn’t see more than a few hundred metres in front of you, Roper says. Everyone was anxious and uncomfortable. The southwesterly wind change put the Ovens Valley right in the path of the fire. But days of preparation by both firefighters and local residents prevailed, and the worst-case scenarios did not eventuate. | You couldn’t see more than a few hundred metres in front of you, Roper says. Everyone was anxious and uncomfortable. The southwesterly wind change put the Ovens Valley right in the path of the fire. But days of preparation by both firefighters and local residents prevailed, and the worst-case scenarios did not eventuate. |
| “Yesterday was pretty horrible,” he says. “It was a horrible sort of day.... You sit and wait in these sort of situations.” | “Yesterday was pretty horrible,” he says. “It was a horrible sort of day.... You sit and wait in these sort of situations.” |
| About 5pm, CFA strike teams that had been sitting in wait for spot fires in the Ovens Valley were sent to put out a grassfire at Bandiana, on the outskirts of Wodonga. That fire also cut off one of the exits out of the Keiwa valley. “Everyone started to get a bit twitchy about what was going on,” Roper says. | About 5pm, CFA strike teams that had been sitting in wait for spot fires in the Ovens Valley were sent to put out a grassfire at Bandiana, on the outskirts of Wodonga. That fire also cut off one of the exits out of the Keiwa valley. “Everyone started to get a bit twitchy about what was going on,” Roper says. |
| Then a fire started at Mount Beauty, and local crews “jumped on it.” And that was the worst of it. Apart from some damage to private land on the western edge of the fire, and ember attack in the Buckland Valley, the flames remained in state forest and national park. | Then a fire started at Mount Beauty, and local crews “jumped on it.” And that was the worst of it. Apart from some damage to private land on the western edge of the fire, and ember attack in the Buckland Valley, the flames remained in state forest and national park. |
| The next seven days in NSW | The next seven days in NSW |
| Earlier today NSW RFS Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said fire crews would use milder conditions this week to try “get an upper hand on the fires”. | Earlier today NSW RFS Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said fire crews would use milder conditions this week to try “get an upper hand on the fires”. |
| He said the forecast is for the best seven days they’ve had in terms of fire danger ratings. | He said the forecast is for the best seven days they’ve had in terms of fire danger ratings. |
| The Bureau of Meteorology has some more detail on that. | The Bureau of Meteorology has some more detail on that. |
| Temperatures across most of the state over the next couple of days will be cooler and wind gusts will not be of the kind seen on Friday when the southerly moved through. | Temperatures across most of the state over the next couple of days will be cooler and wind gusts will not be of the kind seen on Friday when the southerly moved through. |
| Senior climatologist Agata Imielska says areas including the Illawarra, Bega, the south coast and the Riverina could still experience gusts of 15-20 km/h, however, which “can still make things challenging on the fireground”. | Senior climatologist Agata Imielska says areas including the Illawarra, Bega, the south coast and the Riverina could still experience gusts of 15-20 km/h, however, which “can still make things challenging on the fireground”. |
| Fire danger ratings will be low-moderate to high in most areas up until Tuesday, when temperatures will become slightly warmer again and very high fire danger is expected in areas including the southern ranges, the northern slopes and the ACT. | Fire danger ratings will be low-moderate to high in most areas up until Tuesday, when temperatures will become slightly warmer again and very high fire danger is expected in areas including the southern ranges, the northern slopes and the ACT. |
| There is also some rain forecast around NSW for later this week, but the BoM says it is too soon to tell how significant that will be. | There is also some rain forecast around NSW for later this week, but the BoM says it is too soon to tell how significant that will be. |
| “It’s a bit of good news to see we’ve got rain on the forecast but at the same time whether it will be significant enough in the context of the fires that’s something we’ll be keeping an eye on,” Imielska says. | “It’s a bit of good news to see we’ve got rain on the forecast but at the same time whether it will be significant enough in the context of the fires that’s something we’ll be keeping an eye on,” Imielska says. |
| Rachel Baxendale, a reporter from The Australian, is at her parents’ vineyard at Whitlands, which is under a watch and act warning for the Abbeyard fire. It looks beautiful there today, even if you can’t see Mount Buffalo’s horn. | Rachel Baxendale, a reporter from The Australian, is at her parents’ vineyard at Whitlands, which is under a watch and act warning for the Abbeyard fire. It looks beautiful there today, even if you can’t see Mount Buffalo’s horn. |