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| Why Your State Is Growing or Stalling or Shrinking | Why Your State Is Growing or Stalling or Shrinking |
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| The debate over immigration has economic and moral components, but there’s also a demographic aspect: Many parts of America would be shrinking if not for the arrival of residents from other countries. | The debate over immigration has economic and moral components, but there’s also a demographic aspect: Many parts of America would be shrinking if not for the arrival of residents from other countries. |
| State-by-state population estimates recently released by the Census Bureau make this clear. Four states lost population in the last decade, but nine others would have also shrunk if not for the addition of foreign-born residents. | State-by-state population estimates recently released by the Census Bureau make this clear. Four states lost population in the last decade, but nine others would have also shrunk if not for the addition of foreign-born residents. |
| A decade ago, the population picture was more robust. No state showed an overall population decline, and only seven states depended on immigrants for population growth. | A decade ago, the population picture was more robust. No state showed an overall population decline, and only seven states depended on immigrants for population growth. |
| The figures, which are the last major estimates the bureau will release before the 2020 census, separate population change into three major components: natural change, as in births vs. deaths; domestic migration, the movement of Americans between states; and the arrival of immigrants. | The figures, which are the last major estimates the bureau will release before the 2020 census, separate population change into three major components: natural change, as in births vs. deaths; domestic migration, the movement of Americans between states; and the arrival of immigrants. |
| The big picture is of a country growing more slowly than it ever has. | The big picture is of a country growing more slowly than it ever has. |
| “This is the lowest annual growth rate since 1918, and caps off a decade that should show the slowest 10-year population growth since the first census was taken in 1790,” the demographer William Frey wrote for the Brookings Institution. | “This is the lowest annual growth rate since 1918, and caps off a decade that should show the slowest 10-year population growth since the first census was taken in 1790,” the demographer William Frey wrote for the Brookings Institution. |
| Every state except North Dakota (which had a fracking boom that peaked in 2012) showed a lower ratio of births to deaths from 2010 through 2019 compared with the prior decade. (Washington, D.C., which is considered a state in demographic counts, also showed an increase.) | Every state except North Dakota (which had a fracking boom that peaked in 2012) showed a lower ratio of births to deaths from 2010 through 2019 compared with the prior decade. (Washington, D.C., which is considered a state in demographic counts, also showed an increase.) |
| But while the falling birthrate affected most states’ growth to some extent, the immigration slowdown hit some states harder than others, particularly states that already tend to lose population from migration to other states. | But while the falling birthrate affected most states’ growth to some extent, the immigration slowdown hit some states harder than others, particularly states that already tend to lose population from migration to other states. |
| In Michigan, for example, where 190,000 immigrants arrived, the population over all grew by 100,000, meaning the state would have shrunk without immigration. New Jersey had a net gain of 90,000 residents, bolstered by the addition of nearly 300,000 residents from overseas. | In Michigan, for example, where 190,000 immigrants arrived, the population over all grew by 100,000, meaning the state would have shrunk without immigration. New Jersey had a net gain of 90,000 residents, bolstered by the addition of nearly 300,000 residents from overseas. |
| The estimates show that the United States took in more than a million immigrants in both 2015 and 2016, but that the numbers have fallen in the three years since President Trump took office, dipping below 600,000 in 2019. | The estimates show that the United States took in more than a million immigrants in both 2015 and 2016, but that the numbers have fallen in the three years since President Trump took office, dipping below 600,000 in 2019. |
| The four states estimated to have lost population this past decade were West Virginia, Illinois, Connecticut and Vermont. | The four states estimated to have lost population this past decade were West Virginia, Illinois, Connecticut and Vermont. |
| Population loss directly affects political representation. Seats in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College are tied to the decennial census. If the 2019 estimates are extrapolated one more year, the figures suggest that 10 states will lose a House seat. Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon would each get one new seat, while Florida (2) and Texas (3) would divide the remaining five seats. | Population loss directly affects political representation. Seats in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College are tied to the decennial census. If the 2019 estimates are extrapolated one more year, the figures suggest that 10 states will lose a House seat. Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon would each get one new seat, while Florida (2) and Texas (3) would divide the remaining five seats. |
| Population losses can also harm local economies. Companies may relocate or look elsewhere to expand, making it harder for local governments to raise taxes to pay for services like education, which in turn prompts more people to move away. | Population losses can also harm local economies. Companies may relocate or look elsewhere to expand, making it harder for local governments to raise taxes to pay for services like education, which in turn prompts more people to move away. |
| Over all, the estimates show that the United States grew by 6.3 percent in the 2010s — to a total of 328 million — after an increase of 9.1 percent between 2000 and 2009. | Over all, the estimates show that the United States grew by 6.3 percent in the 2010s — to a total of 328 million — after an increase of 9.1 percent between 2000 and 2009. |
| The data also showed a pickup in domestic migration as the decade proceeded, but it never reached the same rate as before the Great Recession. “The overall migration has been going down, but the direction of where they move is coming back to where they were,” Mr. Frey said of the trend of population moving from Northern and Midwestern states to the South and West. | The data also showed a pickup in domestic migration as the decade proceeded, but it never reached the same rate as before the Great Recession. “The overall migration has been going down, but the direction of where they move is coming back to where they were,” Mr. Frey said of the trend of population moving from Northern and Midwestern states to the South and West. |
| Here’s what happened in some key states. | Here’s what happened in some key states. |
| CALIFORNIA For decades, it had been a magnet for migrants from other states, but that changed in the 1990s as more people moved out of the state than moved in. | CALIFORNIA For decades, it had been a magnet for migrants from other states, but that changed in the 1990s as more people moved out of the state than moved in. |
| For a few years, the trend seemed to be reversing, but with housing prices soaring and economies in nearby states humming, the losses started to pile up again. | For a few years, the trend seemed to be reversing, but with housing prices soaring and economies in nearby states humming, the losses started to pile up again. |
| The estimated net loss from domestic migration for the decade is about 900,000 residents (compared with a loss of 1.5 million between 2000 and 2009). | The estimated net loss from domestic migration for the decade is about 900,000 residents (compared with a loss of 1.5 million between 2000 and 2009). |
| There were also half a million fewer babies, leaving California’s overall growth picture weak. For the first time, the state is expected to lose a seat in the House of Representatives. | There were also half a million fewer babies, leaving California’s overall growth picture weak. For the first time, the state is expected to lose a seat in the House of Representatives. |
| FLORIDA As immigration falls in many places, it keeps growing in Florida, with a total gain of 1.1 million immigrants in the decade, a quarter million more than in the previous decade. And there was a major growth spurt between 2013 and 2017. | FLORIDA As immigration falls in many places, it keeps growing in Florida, with a total gain of 1.1 million immigrants in the decade, a quarter million more than in the previous decade. And there was a major growth spurt between 2013 and 2017. |
| “The origins of migrants from the Americas to Florida are quite diverse, with no particular country or region dominating,” said Stefan Rayer, population program director at the University of Florida’s bureau of economic and business research. “This is in contrast to California and Texas, where international migration has come primarily from Mexico.” | “The origins of migrants from the Americas to Florida are quite diverse, with no particular country or region dominating,” said Stefan Rayer, population program director at the University of Florida’s bureau of economic and business research. “This is in contrast to California and Texas, where international migration has come primarily from Mexico.” |
| Florida has also remained a favorite retirement destination for residents from the North and Midwest, netting 1.3 million from other states, so it has two sources of population growth. | Florida has also remained a favorite retirement destination for residents from the North and Midwest, netting 1.3 million from other states, so it has two sources of population growth. |
| MASSACHUSETTS Like other Northeastern states, Massachusetts depends on immigration to sustain growth. But unlike its neighbors — immigration is down by a third in New York — Massachusetts sustained international growth through most of the decade. | MASSACHUSETTS Like other Northeastern states, Massachusetts depends on immigration to sustain growth. But unlike its neighbors — immigration is down by a third in New York — Massachusetts sustained international growth through most of the decade. |
| The difference lies in the state’s thriving university and tech sector, which brings in a larger proportion of high-skilled immigrants. Boston also had an influx of millennials during the decade, which helped offset the flow of older residents to other states. | The difference lies in the state’s thriving university and tech sector, which brings in a larger proportion of high-skilled immigrants. Boston also had an influx of millennials during the decade, which helped offset the flow of older residents to other states. |
| Massachusetts alone accounted for more than half of the population growth in the Northeast during the decade. | Massachusetts alone accounted for more than half of the population growth in the Northeast during the decade. |
| “The growth that we saw with the millennial wave, can that be sustained?” said Susan Strate, a demographer at the UMass Donahue Institute. “Coupled with a decrease in the international migration that made us strong growers in recent years, it’s a pivotal point in Massachusetts.” | “The growth that we saw with the millennial wave, can that be sustained?” said Susan Strate, a demographer at the UMass Donahue Institute. “Coupled with a decrease in the international migration that made us strong growers in recent years, it’s a pivotal point in Massachusetts.” |
| PENNSYLVANIA A decade ago, this state was growing, and about half of the new residents were immigrants. This decade, even as immigration increased, overall growth slowed as more people left the state than moved in. | PENNSYLVANIA A decade ago, this state was growing, and about half of the new residents were immigrants. This decade, even as immigration increased, overall growth slowed as more people left the state than moved in. |
| Two counties on the state’s eastern border, Pike and Monroe, boomed in the last decade as the New York exurbs expanded straight through New Jersey. But growth there came to a halt during the recession. | Two counties on the state’s eastern border, Pike and Monroe, boomed in the last decade as the New York exurbs expanded straight through New Jersey. But growth there came to a halt during the recession. |
| Sue Copella, director of the Pennsylvania State Data Center, also noted that the Census Bureau’s estimation model has changed over the years and that might explain some of the differences. | Sue Copella, director of the Pennsylvania State Data Center, also noted that the Census Bureau’s estimation model has changed over the years and that might explain some of the differences. |
| “We’ve always been a state with negative migration,” she said. “And we’re an older state.” | “We’ve always been a state with negative migration,” she said. “And we’re an older state.” |
| GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA In the years before the Great Recession, these states were among the fastest growing in the nation. Residents were pouring in from other states, and a building boom also attracted immigrants who worked in construction. | GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA In the years before the Great Recession, these states were among the fastest growing in the nation. Residents were pouring in from other states, and a building boom also attracted immigrants who worked in construction. |
| After a decline, growth has picked up since 2016, but not at the pace of pre-recession days, and immigration has slowed. | After a decline, growth has picked up since 2016, but not at the pace of pre-recession days, and immigration has slowed. |
| North Carolina stands to gain a seat in the House, according to the estimates, but the Georgia delegation will most likely remain the same. | North Carolina stands to gain a seat in the House, according to the estimates, but the Georgia delegation will most likely remain the same. |
| NEW YORK The Empire State has been losing population since 2016, and the reasons are easy to see. | NEW YORK The Empire State has been losing population since 2016, and the reasons are easy to see. |
| Growth in immigration is way down. For years, the state averaged an increase of more than 80,000 immigrants annually. The last three years, that has fallen to 56,000. | Growth in immigration is way down. For years, the state averaged an increase of more than 80,000 immigrants annually. The last three years, that has fallen to 56,000. |
| But the real drain is domestic. The state followed up a net loss of 1.7 million residents to other states from 2000 to 2009 with a loss of 1.4 million residents this past decade. | But the real drain is domestic. The state followed up a net loss of 1.7 million residents to other states from 2000 to 2009 with a loss of 1.4 million residents this past decade. |
| Put another way: Early in the decade, New York was losing 1.2 residents to other states for every new immigrant gained. In 2019, it lost nearly four people for every immigrant, and there are not nearly enough babies being born to make up for the loss. | Put another way: Early in the decade, New York was losing 1.2 residents to other states for every new immigrant gained. In 2019, it lost nearly four people for every immigrant, and there are not nearly enough babies being born to make up for the loss. |
| New York would lose one House seat based on current estimates, but it’s close to losing two if it fares slightly worse in the official census. | New York would lose one House seat based on current estimates, but it’s close to losing two if it fares slightly worse in the official census. |
| WASHINGTON With growth slowing across the nation, most states added fewer residents between 2010 and 2019 than in the prior decade. Washington was an exception, adding 900,000 residents on top of 770,000 it grew last decade. | |
| Even fast-growing Utah added fewer people this decade than last, according to the figures, though it joins Washington and other Western states as being the primary beneficiaries of California’s out-migration. | Even fast-growing Utah added fewer people this decade than last, according to the figures, though it joins Washington and other Western states as being the primary beneficiaries of California’s out-migration. |
| Washington’s not-so-secret weapon is Seattle, which is once again one of the nation’s fastest- growing cities, thanks in large part to the “Amazon Boom.” | Washington’s not-so-secret weapon is Seattle, which is once again one of the nation’s fastest- growing cities, thanks in large part to the “Amazon Boom.” |
| ILLINOIS Illinois had been a growing state. But there was a problem. | ILLINOIS Illinois had been a growing state. But there was a problem. |
| The birthrate was falling sharply. And then fewer immigrants arrived. Finally, the state’s net loss in domestic migration increased. | The birthrate was falling sharply. And then fewer immigrants arrived. Finally, the state’s net loss in domestic migration increased. |
| By 2014, the population growth turned negative and the losses were compounding. The state has lost nearly 2 percent of its population since 2013 and will most likely lose a House seat as a result. | By 2014, the population growth turned negative and the losses were compounding. The state has lost nearly 2 percent of its population since 2013 and will most likely lose a House seat as a result. |
| “The recession was an advantage to states like New York and Illinois because it held people in place,” said Ken Johnson, a senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire. “As soon as it loosed its grip, the domestic migration losses began to get bigger again.” | “The recession was an advantage to states like New York and Illinois because it held people in place,” said Ken Johnson, a senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire. “As soon as it loosed its grip, the domestic migration losses began to get bigger again.” |