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| ‘High confidence’ that Ukraine plane hit by Iranian air-defense missile, U.S. official says | ‘High confidence’ that Ukraine plane hit by Iranian air-defense missile, U.S. official says |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| MOSCOW — U.S. officials have “high confidence” that an Iranian antiaircraft missile brought down a Ukrainian passenger jet near Tehran, killing all 176 aboard, a U.S. official said. Here’s what we know: | |
| ● | |
| ●● | |
| ●Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which was hit by a missile over a rebel-held area of Ukraine. | |
| ●Iran will not send flight data recorders with Boeing for analysis, but U.S. investigators may take part in the probe. | |
| WHO WAS ABOARD THE PLANE? | | |
| ANALYSIS: U.S.-IRAN SHADOW WAR IS NOT OVER | |
| The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter on the record, said U.S. authorities believe the plane was hit by a SA-15 surface-to-air missile, a Russian-made system also known as Tor air-defense batteries. | |
| The official gave no other details on the circumstances that led to the possible missile firing before dawn on Wednesday, which came about four hours after Iran launched ballistic missiles into Iraq against U.S. targets in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani. | |
| President Trump, speaking at the White House, said the passenger jet could have been downed by “mistake.” | President Trump, speaking at the White House, said the passenger jet could have been downed by “mistake.” |
| “Well, I have my suspicions. I don’t want to say that, because other people have those suspicions also. … Somebody could’ve made a mistake on the other side,” Trump said about the Ukrainian plane. “Some people say it was mechanical. Personally, I don’t think that’s even a question,” Trump told reporters. | “Well, I have my suspicions. I don’t want to say that, because other people have those suspicions also. … Somebody could’ve made a mistake on the other side,” Trump said about the Ukrainian plane. “Some people say it was mechanical. Personally, I don’t think that’s even a question,” Trump told reporters. |
| European intelligence officials also believe that the plane was shot down by mistake by the Iranians, according to an European official briefed on the matter. Another Pentagon official said that discussions are underway. but that intelligence was still being assessed. | |
| “You don't know until you know,” the Pentagon official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. | |
| The Tor system dates back to the Cold War and can be against planes, helicopters, drones or incoming missiles. Russia has exported the system to a number of countries, including Iran in 2005. It is designed to hit targets in the short to medium range. | |
| Earlier, Ukrainian investigators said they were considering the possibility that an antiaircraft missile brought down the Kyiv-bound passenger jet, as an initial report Iran said the plane was on fire while still in the air and was turning back toward Tehran’s airport because of a “problem” when it went down. | |
| A team of 45 experts and search-and-rescue personnel from Ukraine arrived in Tehran early Thursday to participate in the probe, as well as to identify and repatriate the bodies of the 11 Ukrainians on board, including all nine crew members. | A team of 45 experts and search-and-rescue personnel from Ukraine arrived in Tehran early Thursday to participate in the probe, as well as to identify and repatriate the bodies of the 11 Ukrainians on board, including all nine crew members. |
| Ukrainian investigators had said they were also looking into engine failure or a terrorist attack as possible causes of the crash. A Ukrainian intelligence source said investigators found no fire markings on the engines. The U.S. has not yet shared its assessment that an antiaircraft missile system likely brought down the plane, the Ukrainian intelligence source said. | |
| Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, wrote on Facebook that his team wants to search for possible debris of the Tor air defense missile, after seeing online reports about the discovery of possible fragments of one near the crash site. | |
| Ukraine is familiar with the risks that antiaircraft weapons can pose to civilian aircraft in times of conflict. | |
| In July 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was downed by a missile shot from a Russian Buk surface-to-air missile system operating on rebel territory in Ukraine's east. The attack on the Boeing 777, which was passing over the conflict zone while flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, killed all 298 people on board. | |
| A joint investigative team from Australia, Belgium, Malaysia, the Netherlands and Ukraine identified a Russian military unit in charge of the antiaircraft missile system, and have pursued prosecution of Russian and Ukrainian citizens involved. Russia has denied any involvement in the incident. | |
| Danilov said that Ukraine’s investigative commission for the Tehran crash includes specialists who helped investigate the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash site. The government in Kyiv has also suspended all Ukrainian flights over Iranian and Iraqi airspace. | |
| Thomas Karako, who studies missile defense for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there is “going to be hell to pay” with Tehran’s standing in Europe if it is determined that Iran shot down the airliner. | |
| “It’s really going to hurt their ability to manipulate the Europeans and other folks into believing that Iran is somehow the victim” following the U.S. drone strike that killed Soleimani. | |
| The responsibility for air defense traditionally falls to Iran’s Iran Air Defense Force command, said Saeid Golkar, a political science professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga who has studied Iranian security forces for 20 years. | |
| Orders to mobilize the country’s air defense are given by a central command center, which includes air defense batteries controlled by Iran’s two armed forces: the regular military and the more elite Revolutionary Guard. Within this system, the Revolutionary Guard is also in control of their own air defense systems and have the capability of acting without authorization, Golkar said. | |
| “It is possible that the IRGC acted alone?” Golkar asked, using an acronym of the Revolutionary Guard. | |
| “If you asked me if its possible if someone mistakenly shot it down I’d say. “Yes, because of the whole informality of the system,’” Golkar said. | |
| The Ukraine International Airlines flight departed Tehran at 6:12 a.m. Wednesday and was approaching 8,000 feet when it abruptly lost contact with ground control, officials said. | The Ukraine International Airlines flight departed Tehran at 6:12 a.m. Wednesday and was approaching 8,000 feet when it abruptly lost contact with ground control, officials said. |
| The report from Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization said witnesses — on the ground and among the crew of another flight in the vicinity — reported seeing a fire while the Boeing 737 800 was still in the air, followed by an explosion when it slammed into a field near an amusement park. | The report from Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization said witnesses — on the ground and among the crew of another flight in the vicinity — reported seeing a fire while the Boeing 737 800 was still in the air, followed by an explosion when it slammed into a field near an amusement park. |
| A video from a closed-circuit television camera posted on Twitter by Iran’s state broadcaster showed the predawn darkness suddenly lit in a fiery orange glow and then flaming debris scattering over a wide area. | A video from a closed-circuit television camera posted on Twitter by Iran’s state broadcaster showed the predawn darkness suddenly lit in a fiery orange glow and then flaming debris scattering over a wide area. |
| “The trajectory of the collision indicated that the plane was initially moving toward the west, but after encountering a problem, it turned to the right and was approaching the airport again at the time of the crash,” Ali Abedzadeh, head of the Civil Aviation Organization, said in the report. | “The trajectory of the collision indicated that the plane was initially moving toward the west, but after encountering a problem, it turned to the right and was approaching the airport again at the time of the crash,” Ali Abedzadeh, head of the Civil Aviation Organization, said in the report. |
| Iranian officials said immediately after the crash that the plane had encountered technical problems, but this did not appear in the report, which also noted that there was no distress call from the aircraft. | Iranian officials said immediately after the crash that the plane had encountered technical problems, but this did not appear in the report, which also noted that there was no distress call from the aircraft. |
| The passengers on the plane were mostly Iranians but also included Europeans and more than 60 Canadian citizens. | |
| The Iranian report said both the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder were recovered but were damaged. Abedzadeh has said Iran will not share those “black boxes” with Boeing, but other countries, including the United States, have been invited to participate in the investigation in accordance with international guidelines. | |
| 176 people died in the Ukrainian plane crash in Iran. Here are some of their stories. | |
| Under standards outlined in the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Annex 13, the country where a crash occurs leads the investigation and is responsible for releasing information related to the incident. Officials in other countries may be included to offer technical and investigative support. | |
| Because Boeing jets are manufactured and certified in the United States, U.S. safety officials have the right to participate in the investigation under international rules. However, because of sanctions imposed on Iran, there are additional challenges. Government agencies, including the National Transportation Safety Board, must secure a license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control to be permitted to travel to the country. Experts say securing that license is a complicated process that can take months or even years. | |
| Speaking to reporters in Ottawa on Wednesday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that 138 of those on board were en route to Toronto. He promised that the crash would be “thoroughly investigated.” | |
| “Canadians have questions, and they deserve answers,” he said. | “Canadians have questions, and they deserve answers,” he said. |
| Asked whether he could “categorically” rule out that the plane was not shot down, Trudeau said he could not, adding that it is too early to speculate on possible causes. | Asked whether he could “categorically” rule out that the plane was not shot down, Trudeau said he could not, adding that it is too early to speculate on possible causes. |
| Iran crash presents embattled Boeing with new crisis | Iran crash presents embattled Boeing with new crisis |
| On Wednesday, Brig. Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi, a spokesman for the armed forces, described mounting speculation that the plane was shot down by a missile as American “psychological warfare,” as well as “ridiculous” and an “utter lie,” according to to Iran’s Mehr news agency | |
| “Most of the passengers on this plane were invaluable Iranian youth; everything we do is aimed at defending our people’s and country’s security,” Shekarchi said. | |
| Canada’s Transportation Safety Board said it offered its “technical assistance and expertise” to Ukraine as it probes the cause of the crash. | Canada’s Transportation Safety Board said it offered its “technical assistance and expertise” to Ukraine as it probes the cause of the crash. |
| “We’re scrambling to get as much information as we can, but it’s going to take a little while to get answers,” said Marc Garneau, Canada’s transport minister. | “We’re scrambling to get as much information as we can, but it’s going to take a little while to get answers,” said Marc Garneau, Canada’s transport minister. |
| Lamothe, Ryan and Sonne reported from Washington. Amanda Coletta in Toronto and Lori Aratani, Dalton Bennett, Shane Harris, Michael Laris and Souad Mekhennet | |
| in Washington contributed to this report. | |
| Ukrainian passenger jet carrying over 170 people crashes in Iran, killing all on board | Ukrainian passenger jet carrying over 170 people crashes in Iran, killing all on board |
| A timeline of the escalation in the Middle East | A timeline of the escalation in the Middle East |
| Iran took revenge, no one died, and the risk of war abates, for now | Iran took revenge, no one died, and the risk of war abates, for now |
| Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world | Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world |
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