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Trump Plays Golf to Iran’s Chess The American-Iranian Psychosis, Next Chapter
(about 3 hours later)
Take the most combustible, scarred, dysfunctional relationship the United States has with any country in the world and place it in the hands of an impulsive, ignorant, bullying American leader and you are likely to sleepwalk to the brink of war. That is what just happened with President Trump and Iran. It was no surprise. He has been fiddling with this grenade since he took office.Take the most combustible, scarred, dysfunctional relationship the United States has with any country in the world and place it in the hands of an impulsive, ignorant, bullying American leader and you are likely to sleepwalk to the brink of war. That is what just happened with President Trump and Iran. It was no surprise. He has been fiddling with this grenade since he took office.
By killing Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite security forces and the iron fist of the Islamic republic’s theocratic ideology, Trump tossed that grenade at the Middle East. It was a reckless act, like the president’s scrapping of the Iran nuclear deal. It united, for now, a divided Iran. It ensured that a half-century from now Suleimani’s name will be hurled at any American visitor to Tehran as evidence of the perennial perfidy of the United States.By killing Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite security forces and the iron fist of the Islamic republic’s theocratic ideology, Trump tossed that grenade at the Middle East. It was a reckless act, like the president’s scrapping of the Iran nuclear deal. It united, for now, a divided Iran. It ensured that a half-century from now Suleimani’s name will be hurled at any American visitor to Tehran as evidence of the perennial perfidy of the United States.
The Iranian response, a ballistic-missile attack on military bases housing American troops in Iraq that killed nobody and did limited damage, was typical of a regime that has survived more than 40 years through prudence. The mullahs are not the “messianic apocalyptic cult” once evoked by Benjamin Netanyahu. They are cold calculators. Their primary objective is survival.The Iranian response, a ballistic-missile attack on military bases housing American troops in Iraq that killed nobody and did limited damage, was typical of a regime that has survived more than 40 years through prudence. The mullahs are not the “messianic apocalyptic cult” once evoked by Benjamin Netanyahu. They are cold calculators. Their primary objective is survival.
The response did just enough to appease popular anger and satisfy the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while avoiding provocation of the United States, a far superior military power and far more resilient body politic. The Islamic republic is in an untenable position. It is torn between a young majority that seeks normalized relations with the world, and the aging apparatchiks of the theocracy who depend on “Death to America” and confrontation. This is not a society ready for war.The response did just enough to appease popular anger and satisfy the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while avoiding provocation of the United States, a far superior military power and far more resilient body politic. The Islamic republic is in an untenable position. It is torn between a young majority that seeks normalized relations with the world, and the aging apparatchiks of the theocracy who depend on “Death to America” and confrontation. This is not a society ready for war.
As a result, war is not imminent. Nor is any rapprochement between the United States and Iran. Those suddenly mouthing about diplomatic opportunity can dream on. There are no quick fixes for this one; and those are the only kinds of fixes Trump-the-needy knows or can imagine.As a result, war is not imminent. Nor is any rapprochement between the United States and Iran. Those suddenly mouthing about diplomatic opportunity can dream on. There are no quick fixes for this one; and those are the only kinds of fixes Trump-the-needy knows or can imagine.
The president took the one plank for possible conciliation — a nuclear deal that had gotten Americans and Iranians talking to each other at last — and blew it up. That deal’s other signatories — in Europe, Russia and China — are not about to follow suit, as Trump again urged them to do today. This crisis has brought home Trump’s isolation. He has shouted and lied and whined his way to a solitary perch on the world stage. So much for the leader of the free world (R.I.P.). Even Israel has kept a certain distance over the Suleimani killing.The president took the one plank for possible conciliation — a nuclear deal that had gotten Americans and Iranians talking to each other at last — and blew it up. That deal’s other signatories — in Europe, Russia and China — are not about to follow suit, as Trump again urged them to do today. This crisis has brought home Trump’s isolation. He has shouted and lied and whined his way to a solitary perch on the world stage. So much for the leader of the free world (R.I.P.). Even Israel has kept a certain distance over the Suleimani killing.
The president’s Iran braggadocio was not born of any Middle East strategy, of course. It arose because the Saudis, or the Emiratis, or Mike Pompeo, or just somebody told Trump Iran is evil, and besides, President Obama had concluded a deal with Tehran. But Iran is no plaything. America’s Iran psychosis, and vice versa, stems from an old story — an anti-democratic coup in Iran engineered in part by American agents, an anti-Western theocratic revolution, the hostage crisis, kidnappings, bombings, Iran-Contra, an Iranian passenger plane shot out of the sky, an ideological war — that will not find resolution in Trump’s simplistic histrionics.The president’s Iran braggadocio was not born of any Middle East strategy, of course. It arose because the Saudis, or the Emiratis, or Mike Pompeo, or just somebody told Trump Iran is evil, and besides, President Obama had concluded a deal with Tehran. But Iran is no plaything. America’s Iran psychosis, and vice versa, stems from an old story — an anti-democratic coup in Iran engineered in part by American agents, an anti-Western theocratic revolution, the hostage crisis, kidnappings, bombings, Iran-Contra, an Iranian passenger plane shot out of the sky, an ideological war — that will not find resolution in Trump’s simplistic histrionics.
Iran is an ancient civilization with a long memory. It is not for amateurs. Trump is an amateur. “We are playing golf while they are playing chess,” Stephen Heintz, the president of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund who has worked on diplomatic outreach to Iran, told me. “We take one swing and they are already three moves along on the board.”Iran is an ancient civilization with a long memory. It is not for amateurs. Trump is an amateur. “We are playing golf while they are playing chess,” Stephen Heintz, the president of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund who has worked on diplomatic outreach to Iran, told me. “We take one swing and they are already three moves along on the board.”
Iran will not be browbeaten into submission — certainly not by the redoubled economic sanctions Trump announced or by taunts that it is “standing down.” It is proud and will not lose face. The grasp of its psychology in the White House is nonexistent.Iran will not be browbeaten into submission — certainly not by the redoubled economic sanctions Trump announced or by taunts that it is “standing down.” It is proud and will not lose face. The grasp of its psychology in the White House is nonexistent.
Still, the Islamic republic is also vulnerable. Suleimani, who was indeed “drenched in both American and Iranian blood,” as Trump said, had pushed his country into dangerous overreach.Still, the Islamic republic is also vulnerable. Suleimani, who was indeed “drenched in both American and Iranian blood,” as Trump said, had pushed his country into dangerous overreach.
Late last year in Beirut I witnessed Lebanese ire at Iran’s militant surrogate, Hezbollah. It was one thing when Hezbollah was the face of the resistance to Israel; another when Suleimani had directed it to save the butcher of Damascus, Bashar al-Assad, through wholesale slaughter in Syria.Late last year in Beirut I witnessed Lebanese ire at Iran’s militant surrogate, Hezbollah. It was one thing when Hezbollah was the face of the resistance to Israel; another when Suleimani had directed it to save the butcher of Damascus, Bashar al-Assad, through wholesale slaughter in Syria.
In Baghdad, in Tehran itself, popular anger erupted in the streets last year. The anger had much to do with Suleimani’s ruthless, obsessive, costly quest for regional hegemony through development of what Karim Sadjadpour has aptly called “a Shia foreign legion.” Why should Iranians be struggling to pay bills while Suleimani strutted around pushing his foreign wars for an exhausted theocratic ideology?In Baghdad, in Tehran itself, popular anger erupted in the streets last year. The anger had much to do with Suleimani’s ruthless, obsessive, costly quest for regional hegemony through development of what Karim Sadjadpour has aptly called “a Shia foreign legion.” Why should Iranians be struggling to pay bills while Suleimani strutted around pushing his foreign wars for an exhausted theocratic ideology?
At least several hundred Iranians died in those street demonstrations. Suleimani, the spear of the Revolution, would stop at nothing. Many of the brave demonstrators of the uprising of 2009 that I witnessed in Tehran were dragged off to be tortured, sodomized, and, in the case of several hundred of them, slaughtered. Suleimani oversaw that. To see him portrayed as a hero of the fight against ISIS terrorism, as the regime has attempted in recent days, is grotesque.At least several hundred Iranians died in those street demonstrations. Suleimani, the spear of the Revolution, would stop at nothing. Many of the brave demonstrators of the uprising of 2009 that I witnessed in Tehran were dragged off to be tortured, sodomized, and, in the case of several hundred of them, slaughtered. Suleimani oversaw that. To see him portrayed as a hero of the fight against ISIS terrorism, as the regime has attempted in recent days, is grotesque.
The Middle East, in the long view, is better off without this brutal agent of autocracy. But to make that Middle East possible, and slow-walk Iran from the grip of its tired revolution, would require a form of sustained, focused, creative diplomacy of which Trump’s America is incapable.The Middle East, in the long view, is better off without this brutal agent of autocracy. But to make that Middle East possible, and slow-walk Iran from the grip of its tired revolution, would require a form of sustained, focused, creative diplomacy of which Trump’s America is incapable.
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