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| The Truth About New York’s Rising Murder Numbers | The Truth About New York’s Rising Murder Numbers |
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| For the last several years, New York City officials have proudly claimed the title of the safest big city in the country. But for the first time in years, the crime figures for the last 12 months are threatening to undermine that sense of safety. | For the last several years, New York City officials have proudly claimed the title of the safest big city in the country. But for the first time in years, the crime figures for the last 12 months are threatening to undermine that sense of safety. |
| More than 300 people were murdered in 2019, an increase of nearly 8 percent compared with 2018, and the highest number in three years, according to police statistics. | More than 300 people were murdered in 2019, an increase of nearly 8 percent compared with 2018, and the highest number in three years, according to police statistics. |
| The uptick has been enough to unsettle some New Yorkers accustomed to record low crime rates not seen since the 1950s. The sense the city might be trembling on the verge of another rise in crime has been heightened by some heinous and highly publicized killings in recent months. In October, a man bludgeoned four homeless men to death in Chinatown. Then in December, a Barnard College freshmen was killed during a mugging near Columbia University, rattling the city. | The uptick has been enough to unsettle some New Yorkers accustomed to record low crime rates not seen since the 1950s. The sense the city might be trembling on the verge of another rise in crime has been heightened by some heinous and highly publicized killings in recent months. In October, a man bludgeoned four homeless men to death in Chinatown. Then in December, a Barnard College freshmen was killed during a mugging near Columbia University, rattling the city. |
| “It’s an issue of perception,” said Dr. Chris Herrmann, a former Crime Analyst Supervisor with the New York Police Department. “People start to get really scared. They think, she’s a young college student. Why would somebody want to kill her?” | “It’s an issue of perception,” said Dr. Chris Herrmann, a former Crime Analyst Supervisor with the New York Police Department. “People start to get really scared. They think, she’s a young college student. Why would somebody want to kill her?” |
| Still, police officials and experts say the increase in murders, though striking when presented as a percentage, is relatively small in raw numbers, and does not necessarily signal a new upward trend. | Still, police officials and experts say the increase in murders, though striking when presented as a percentage, is relatively small in raw numbers, and does not necessarily signal a new upward trend. |
| “I think perspective here is important,” said Dermot F. Shea, the New York City police commissioner. “But any uptick is a concern.” | “I think perspective here is important,” said Dermot F. Shea, the New York City police commissioner. “But any uptick is a concern.” |
| Overall the index of seven major crimes dropped slightly — by less than 1 percent — and violent crime remained at a historic low, especially compared to the peak of 30 years ago. In 1990, for instance, 2,262 people were killed in New York City. | Overall the index of seven major crimes dropped slightly — by less than 1 percent — and violent crime remained at a historic low, especially compared to the peak of 30 years ago. In 1990, for instance, 2,262 people were killed in New York City. |
| “One year doesn’t a trend make,” Dr. Herrmann said. | “One year doesn’t a trend make,” Dr. Herrmann said. |
| Here are some key findings from the statistics: | Here are some key findings from the statistics: |
| There were 318 murders through Dec. 29 — 23 more than last year. The last time the city saw that many killings was in 2016, when there were 333 killings. (The police said the final year-end totals for reported major crimes will be released later this month.) | There were 318 murders through Dec. 29 — 23 more than last year. The last time the city saw that many killings was in 2016, when there were 333 killings. (The police said the final year-end totals for reported major crimes will be released later this month.) |
| But that modest rise in murders across the city — about 7.8 percent — obscures the fact that some areas saw much sharper increases in killings. Northern Manhattan, for instance, rose to 39 deaths, from 22, and Southern Manhattan rose to 12, from 8, as of Dec. 29. Killings in north Brooklyn also rose dramatically to 65, from 57. And southern Queens saw a spike as well — to 44 murders, up from 39 during the same period. | |
| The police said the rise in murders also included 27 so-called reclassified homicides, which are assaults from prior years that upgraded to homicides after the victims died from their injuries. That number of reclassified incidents was significantly higher than in 2018, which saw only 13 reclassified homicides. | The police said the rise in murders also included 27 so-called reclassified homicides, which are assaults from prior years that upgraded to homicides after the victims died from their injuries. That number of reclassified incidents was significantly higher than in 2018, which saw only 13 reclassified homicides. |
| Police officials have blamed some of the rise in violence in these pockets of the city on feuds between street gangs, with some members as young as 14. | Police officials have blamed some of the rise in violence in these pockets of the city on feuds between street gangs, with some members as young as 14. |
| The danger was brought into sharp focus last October when a bullet aimed at another target struck Aamir Griffin, a 14-year-old who was playing basketball on a playground near his apartment building in Southeast Jamaica, Queens. His death became a rallying cry for addressing the dearth of resources in some neighborhoods. | The danger was brought into sharp focus last October when a bullet aimed at another target struck Aamir Griffin, a 14-year-old who was playing basketball on a playground near his apartment building in Southeast Jamaica, Queens. His death became a rallying cry for addressing the dearth of resources in some neighborhoods. |
| Police officials said they often respond to crime flare-ups by increasing police patrols and engaging with prospective and active gang members. These tactics generally have led to temporary decreases in crime, the police and experts said. | Police officials said they often respond to crime flare-ups by increasing police patrols and engaging with prospective and active gang members. These tactics generally have led to temporary decreases in crime, the police and experts said. |
| For instance, northern Brooklyn saw a sharp increase in shootings and deaths during the first half of the year, but the police department flooded the area with more patrols and in the end, those neighborhoods had roughly the same number of shootings as last year. | For instance, northern Brooklyn saw a sharp increase in shootings and deaths during the first half of the year, but the police department flooded the area with more patrols and in the end, those neighborhoods had roughly the same number of shootings as last year. |
| Devora Kaye, the acting deputy commissioner for public information, said the police department works closely with district attorneys and community leaders to tackle problem areas as soon as issues arise. | Devora Kaye, the acting deputy commissioner for public information, said the police department works closely with district attorneys and community leaders to tackle problem areas as soon as issues arise. |
| “Ensuring public safety requires the continued efforts of the police, and the public, working together to not give an inch,” Ms. Kaye said. “That is why we continue to focus with precision on gangs and the drivers of violence.” | “Ensuring public safety requires the continued efforts of the police, and the public, working together to not give an inch,” Ms. Kaye said. “That is why we continue to focus with precision on gangs and the drivers of violence.” |
| Other violent crimes, however, ticked upward only slightly or declined. Robberies and shootings both rose by about 3 percent. Serious assaults inched up 1.4 percent. | Other violent crimes, however, ticked upward only slightly or declined. Robberies and shootings both rose by about 3 percent. Serious assaults inched up 1.4 percent. |
| The increase in robberies was driven in part by a sharp rise in teenagers being robbed of their iPhones and electronics on the way to school, the police said. | The increase in robberies was driven in part by a sharp rise in teenagers being robbed of their iPhones and electronics on the way to school, the police said. |
| “Teenage robbery victims have increased almost 43 percent since June,” said Chief Michael J. LiPetri, who oversees the department’s crime control strategies. | “Teenage robbery victims have increased almost 43 percent since June,” said Chief Michael J. LiPetri, who oversees the department’s crime control strategies. |
| Some neighborhoods suffered more than others when it came to gunplay. Once again, northern Manhattan saw a nearly 28 percent rise in shooting incidents, with 101. Northern Queens saw a 51 percent rise in shootings, with 44, as of Dec. 29. | Some neighborhoods suffered more than others when it came to gunplay. Once again, northern Manhattan saw a nearly 28 percent rise in shooting incidents, with 101. Northern Queens saw a 51 percent rise in shootings, with 44, as of Dec. 29. |
| Crime experts like Barry Friedman, a professor at the New York University School of Law who studies policing tactics, said these numbers do not necessarily signify that crime is out of control in those neighborhoods. When a big city like New York is experiencing low crime rates, he said, any increase can be seen as alarming. | Crime experts like Barry Friedman, a professor at the New York University School of Law who studies policing tactics, said these numbers do not necessarily signify that crime is out of control in those neighborhoods. When a big city like New York is experiencing low crime rates, he said, any increase can be seen as alarming. |
| “Percentages are often the wrong thing to look at,” said Mr. Friedman. “If crime has been driven down to historically low levels, then increases look larger on a percentage basis.” | “Percentages are often the wrong thing to look at,” said Mr. Friedman. “If crime has been driven down to historically low levels, then increases look larger on a percentage basis.” |
| One category of violent crime fell off. For the first time in years, reported rapes dropped, by 2.5 percent, with 1,760 in 2019, compared with 1,805 in 2018. That tapering off may mark the end of a surge in reported rapes after the #MeToo movement gained momentum in 2018. | One category of violent crime fell off. For the first time in years, reported rapes dropped, by 2.5 percent, with 1,760 in 2019, compared with 1,805 in 2018. That tapering off may mark the end of a surge in reported rapes after the #MeToo movement gained momentum in 2018. |
| The allegations of sexual misconduct against the movie producer Harvey Weinstein, who goes on trial this week and is facing new sexual abuse charges in Los Angeles, motivated more people to report sex crimes, experts said. | The allegations of sexual misconduct against the movie producer Harvey Weinstein, who goes on trial this week and is facing new sexual abuse charges in Los Angeles, motivated more people to report sex crimes, experts said. |
| Criminologists say the rise in murders and other violent crimes could be a temporary upward blip in a trend that has been generally falling for decades now. Still, public perception rarely takes into account the longer, more empirical view. | Criminologists say the rise in murders and other violent crimes could be a temporary upward blip in a trend that has been generally falling for decades now. Still, public perception rarely takes into account the longer, more empirical view. |
| Elizabeth Carr, a mother of three on the Upper West Side, said she became alarmed in October when a shooting took place near a playground she frequents with her children. Ms. Carr found herself avoiding streets with her three young children after dark, she said. Each time her husband is late from a morning run at Central Park, her mind turns to the worst case scenario. | Elizabeth Carr, a mother of three on the Upper West Side, said she became alarmed in October when a shooting took place near a playground she frequents with her children. Ms. Carr found herself avoiding streets with her three young children after dark, she said. Each time her husband is late from a morning run at Central Park, her mind turns to the worst case scenario. |
| “I feel like something is changing in the city,” Ms. Carr said. “The city feels a little less safe than it used to.” | “I feel like something is changing in the city,” Ms. Carr said. “The city feels a little less safe than it used to.” |
| Mr. Herrmann, the criminal justice expert, said Ms. Carr’s fears are not uncommon. But he said the recent uptick in crime may be a return to a normal level of crime after unusually low rates in the last few years. | Mr. Herrmann, the criminal justice expert, said Ms. Carr’s fears are not uncommon. But he said the recent uptick in crime may be a return to a normal level of crime after unusually low rates in the last few years. |
| “These numbers are low,” Mr. Herrmann sad. “Something tells me we are getting back to normal.” | “These numbers are low,” Mr. Herrmann sad. “Something tells me we are getting back to normal.” |
| Yet, Ms. Carr said, some crimes seem too close to home. Burglaries rose nearly 40 percent last year in her neighborhood, she said, and that’s why she founded New Yorkers for Safer Streets, a group that has more than 1,500 Facebook members, as a venue to vocalize her concerns. | Yet, Ms. Carr said, some crimes seem too close to home. Burglaries rose nearly 40 percent last year in her neighborhood, she said, and that’s why she founded New Yorkers for Safer Streets, a group that has more than 1,500 Facebook members, as a venue to vocalize her concerns. |
| “What is driving this increase in crime?” Ms. Carr said. “It makes you feel uneasy.” | “What is driving this increase in crime?” Ms. Carr said. “It makes you feel uneasy.” |
| Ali Watkins contributed reporting. | Ali Watkins contributed reporting. |