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| One of the worst outcomes with Iran would be for Trump to fail | One of the worst outcomes with Iran would be for Trump to fail |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| Here is the sad, dangerous reality of our geopolitical moment: The United States requires a stronger Iran policy but has an impulsive, foolish president who may be incapable of implementing it. | Here is the sad, dangerous reality of our geopolitical moment: The United States requires a stronger Iran policy but has an impulsive, foolish president who may be incapable of implementing it. |
| The need for a new approach is clear enough. Iran may lack regional allies, face an array of wealthy adversaries and possess a mediocre military, but it has played this weak hand well over the past few decades. The Iranian regime has built up proxy militias in other countries that are sometimes stronger than local governments. It has killed U.S. servicemembers in Iraq by spreading lethal military technology, while avoiding the kind of direct confrontation with the United States that it would surely lose. It has conducted intelligence and terrorist operations in Central Asia, Africa, Latin America and the broader Middle East. It has developed an offensive cyberwarfare capacity. | The need for a new approach is clear enough. Iran may lack regional allies, face an array of wealthy adversaries and possess a mediocre military, but it has played this weak hand well over the past few decades. The Iranian regime has built up proxy militias in other countries that are sometimes stronger than local governments. It has killed U.S. servicemembers in Iraq by spreading lethal military technology, while avoiding the kind of direct confrontation with the United States that it would surely lose. It has conducted intelligence and terrorist operations in Central Asia, Africa, Latin America and the broader Middle East. It has developed an offensive cyberwarfare capacity. |
| The regime in Tehran has a plan — a theory — that guides its actions. Lacking the ability to engage in conventional aggression, it has mastered the art of nonconventional aggression: rallying Shiite militancy and employing hybrid warfare to amplify its influence. | The regime in Tehran has a plan — a theory — that guides its actions. Lacking the ability to engage in conventional aggression, it has mastered the art of nonconventional aggression: rallying Shiite militancy and employing hybrid warfare to amplify its influence. |
| No country with the ability to threaten the survival of the Iranian regime has accepted the task of drawing lines to limit Iranian adventurism. President Barack Obama seemed to find the whole enterprise too risky and costly. So we got abdication in Syria, a meaningless chemical weapons red line, and a nuclear deal that essentially ceded Iran’s regional role if it didn’t take the final steps toward a nuclear bomb. | No country with the ability to threaten the survival of the Iranian regime has accepted the task of drawing lines to limit Iranian adventurism. President Barack Obama seemed to find the whole enterprise too risky and costly. So we got abdication in Syria, a meaningless chemical weapons red line, and a nuclear deal that essentially ceded Iran’s regional role if it didn’t take the final steps toward a nuclear bomb. |
| Through most of President Trump’s term in office, the Iranian regime could count on continued impunity. Yes, Trump’s sanctions had a nasty bite. But his promise of regional evacuation, his strange deference to both Turkey and Russia, as well as his lack of response to recent Iranian escalations (targeting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, attacking a major Saudi Arabian oil facility, launching rockets against an Iraqi military base and instigating an assault on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad), all seemed to continue the Obama tradition. | Through most of President Trump’s term in office, the Iranian regime could count on continued impunity. Yes, Trump’s sanctions had a nasty bite. But his promise of regional evacuation, his strange deference to both Turkey and Russia, as well as his lack of response to recent Iranian escalations (targeting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, attacking a major Saudi Arabian oil facility, launching rockets against an Iraqi military base and instigating an assault on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad), all seemed to continue the Obama tradition. |
| Then came the killing of Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani — the designer, symbol and best implementer of Iran’s regional ambitions. In his own chaotic way, Trump has proposed a new U.S. policy. It sets a red line for Iran: no more killing of Americans. And it involves a promise that Iranian escalation will be met by actions against the Iranian homeland, not just against proxies. | |
| The hope of deterrence is not absurd. During the past 35 years, there have been cases where imposing pain on the Iranian regime has (briefly) shifted its behavior. (See Operation Praying Mantis in 1988 and the 2006-2007 attacks against Quds Force militias that were killing U.S. soldiers in Iraq.) When the regime is threatened, it can be pragmatic. | The hope of deterrence is not absurd. During the past 35 years, there have been cases where imposing pain on the Iranian regime has (briefly) shifted its behavior. (See Operation Praying Mantis in 1988 and the 2006-2007 attacks against Quds Force militias that were killing U.S. soldiers in Iraq.) When the regime is threatened, it can be pragmatic. |
| If Trump’s red line holds up, it could be a useful turning point in the containment of Iran. And this new strategic reality could form the basis for useful diplomatic talks involving Iran and the United States’ Arab friends and allies. | If Trump’s red line holds up, it could be a useful turning point in the containment of Iran. And this new strategic reality could form the basis for useful diplomatic talks involving Iran and the United States’ Arab friends and allies. |
| But the United States has two serious problems. The first is found in the region. Iran is better contained when there are U.S. forces in Iraq, cooperating with the Iraqi government and military. But large Iraqi demonstrations against Iranian interference have now been replaced by large demonstrations opposing recent U.S. actions. Kicking out the Americans has clearly gained in appeal among Iraqi nationalists. | But the United States has two serious problems. The first is found in the region. Iran is better contained when there are U.S. forces in Iraq, cooperating with the Iraqi government and military. But large Iraqi demonstrations against Iranian interference have now been replaced by large demonstrations opposing recent U.S. actions. Kicking out the Americans has clearly gained in appeal among Iraqi nationalists. |
| The United States’ second big problem is in Washington. Here it remains an open question: Are we seeing a new strategy to contain Iran or the random gyrations of the mad king? | The United States’ second big problem is in Washington. Here it remains an open question: Are we seeing a new strategy to contain Iran or the random gyrations of the mad king? |
| Trump is hardly Klemens von Metternich with a Twitter account. He responds impulsively to praise and slights. He seems inordinately attracted to war crimes — such as killing civilians and attacking cultural treasures — that would harm the image of the United States for generations. The whole direction of his policy can be changed in reaction to something he hears on Fox News’s “Tucker Carlson Tonight.” His rhetoric of national disengagement and retreat has left the American public unprepared for exertions and sacrifices that may become necessary. His habit of deception taints any assertion of fact he makes, beginning with the possibility that he exaggerated evidence of an “imminent attack.” His relentless use of the presidency for private political gain raises disturbing questions about his motivations. | Trump is hardly Klemens von Metternich with a Twitter account. He responds impulsively to praise and slights. He seems inordinately attracted to war crimes — such as killing civilians and attacking cultural treasures — that would harm the image of the United States for generations. The whole direction of his policy can be changed in reaction to something he hears on Fox News’s “Tucker Carlson Tonight.” His rhetoric of national disengagement and retreat has left the American public unprepared for exertions and sacrifices that may become necessary. His habit of deception taints any assertion of fact he makes, beginning with the possibility that he exaggerated evidence of an “imminent attack.” His relentless use of the presidency for private political gain raises disturbing questions about his motivations. |
| Given his lack of competence and character, this president is a horrible carrier of any new policy. But one of the worst outcomes would be for Trump to fail or blink. Whatever your view of his fateful action, that action has been taken. Even if it results in some difficult consequences, we should hope it succeeds. | Given his lack of competence and character, this president is a horrible carrier of any new policy. But one of the worst outcomes would be for Trump to fail or blink. Whatever your view of his fateful action, that action has been taken. Even if it results in some difficult consequences, we should hope it succeeds. |
| Read more from Michael Gerson’s archive, follow him on Twitter or subscribe to his updates on Facebook. | Read more from Michael Gerson’s archive, follow him on Twitter or subscribe to his updates on Facebook. |
| Read more: | Read more: |
| Max Boot: Trump is sucking us into another war with lots of arrogance and little strategy | Max Boot: Trump is sucking us into another war with lots of arrogance and little strategy |
| Greg Sargent: Trump’s Iran mess is getting worse. Here’s Adam Schiff’s idea on what to do about it. | Greg Sargent: Trump’s Iran mess is getting worse. Here’s Adam Schiff’s idea on what to do about it. |
| The Post’s View: If deescalation with Iran is the goal, Trump is actively thwarting it | The Post’s View: If deescalation with Iran is the goal, Trump is actively thwarting it |
| Jennifer Rubin: Even more reason to doubt Trump’s pretext for war | Jennifer Rubin: Even more reason to doubt Trump’s pretext for war |
| Eugene Robinson: Welcome to Trump’s war | Eugene Robinson: Welcome to Trump’s war |
| Lisa Monaco: We are in uncharted territory now. Are we prepared for that? | Lisa Monaco: We are in uncharted territory now. Are we prepared for that? |
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