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Markets Rattled by Rising U.S.-Iran Tensions Markets Rattled by Rising U.S.-Iran Tensions
(about 1 hour later)
The aftershock of the American killing of a powerful Iranian general rippled through financial markets on Monday, as oil prices rose and money moved to the safety of gold and Treasury bonds in the face of rising tensions in the Middle East.The aftershock of the American killing of a powerful Iranian general rippled through financial markets on Monday, as oil prices rose and money moved to the safety of gold and Treasury bonds in the face of rising tensions in the Middle East.
On Wall Street, stocks slipped in early trading, putting the S&P 500 index on track for its second straight decline. The selling was most notable in shares of companies with significant exposure to fuel costs: Airlines, shipping and logistics firms fell. Oil and energy stocks — which can benefit from higher oil prices — rose. On Wall Street, however, the stock market remained broadly indifferent. After slipping in early trading, the S&P 500 index clawed back most of those losses by midday Monday. There was, however, selling in shares of companies with significant exposure to fuel costs: Airlines, shipping and logistics firms fell. But oil and energy companies — which can benefit from higher oil prices — rose.
Brent oil, the international benchmark for crude, briefly jumped above $70. The rise in oil prices — Brent crude is up more than 7 percent in less than a month — set the tone for trading in other markets, with stock markets in oil-reliant nations like India and Japan seeing steeper drops in overnight trading. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.9 percent, as did India’s key stock market benchmark, the Sensex.Brent oil, the international benchmark for crude, briefly jumped above $70. The rise in oil prices — Brent crude is up more than 7 percent in less than a month — set the tone for trading in other markets, with stock markets in oil-reliant nations like India and Japan seeing steeper drops in overnight trading. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.9 percent, as did India’s key stock market benchmark, the Sensex.
In Europe, shares also took a tumble. Markets in Frankfurt, London, Paris and Amsterdam were all down about 1 percent.In Europe, shares also took a tumble. Markets in Frankfurt, London, Paris and Amsterdam were all down about 1 percent.
In the United States, discount retailers Dollar Tree and Dollar General, whose customers tend to have lower disposable income and higher sensitivity to increased gas prices, fell more than 1 percent in early trading. In the United States, the discount retailers Dollar Tree and Dollar General, whose customers tend to have lower disposable income and higher sensitivity to increased gas prices, fell more than 1 percent in early trading.
Yields on Treasury bonds — which move in the opposite direction of prices — fell as investors sought out the relative security of government bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hovered around 1.77 percent in early trading. Yields on Treasury bonds — which move in the opposite direction of prices — dipped early as investors sought out the relative security of government bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.76 percent in early trading, before rising to 1.82 percent shortly before noon.
The drop in yield sent share prices of finance companies down. Lenders tend to benefit from higher bond yields, which are the foundation for the rates consumers pay to borrow. The financial sector was the worst-performing part of the S&P 500 in early trading Monday.The drop in yield sent share prices of finance companies down. Lenders tend to benefit from higher bond yields, which are the foundation for the rates consumers pay to borrow. The financial sector was the worst-performing part of the S&P 500 in early trading Monday.
Prices for precious metals gold and silver, traditionally viewed as a both a safe haven and a hedge against higher inflation, rose more than 1 percent. Prices for gold, traditionally viewed as a both a safe haven and a hedge against higher inflation, rose.
Investors showed nervousness as Iran pledged to retaliate for the killing of Qassim Suleimani, the Iranian general, and President Trump raised the specter of additional strikes on Iranian cultural sites if it did so.Investors showed nervousness as Iran pledged to retaliate for the killing of Qassim Suleimani, the Iranian general, and President Trump raised the specter of additional strikes on Iranian cultural sites if it did so.
The State Department warned of a “heightened risk” of a missile attack near American military bases. Iran later said it would abandon a nuclear agreement and Iraq vowed to expel American troops from the country.The State Department warned of a “heightened risk” of a missile attack near American military bases. Iran later said it would abandon a nuclear agreement and Iraq vowed to expel American troops from the country.
The sudden escalation in tensions in a region that supplies much of the world’s petroleum has roiled oil markets. The West Texas Intermediate, the American oil benchmark, rose 1.6 percent to $64.04 a barrel in futures trading.The sudden escalation in tensions in a region that supplies much of the world’s petroleum has roiled oil markets. The West Texas Intermediate, the American oil benchmark, rose 1.6 percent to $64.04 a barrel in futures trading.
But in the United States, investors remained somewhat indifferent to the growing conflict between the United States and Iran. Stocks are coming off one of the best years of recent decades. In 2019, the S&P 500 rose 28.9 percent. But in the United States, the growing conflict hasn’t had a substantial impact on stocks, which are coming off one of the best years of recent decades.
Even after two consecutive days of declines, the market remains less than 1 percent below the record highs it hit on Jan. 2. Much of last year’s gain was driven by the Federal Reserve’s move to cut rates three times in 2019 after an ugly stock market sell-off in late 2018. Observers suggest that investors have grown increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve’s easy money policies will help cushion the market from any jolts, as it did last year in the face of the ongoing trade conflict with China.
“Both the Federal Reserve and the administration seem more sensitive to the stock market than in previous decades and appear willing to take action to support the market, should it falter,” wrote David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds, in a research note Monday.
Such sentiment seems consistent with the performance of the stock market in recent days. Even after two consecutive days of declines, the market remains less than 1 percent below the record highs it hit on Jan. 2.
At Sigma Investment Counselors, in Northville, Mich., only a handful of clients had reached out to express concern about the rising tensions in the region, said Robert Bilkie, the chief executive officer at the money management firm.
“The Middle East matters far less to the U.S. today than a decade ago,” Mr. Bilkie said in an email.