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| Labour leadership: Richard Burgon confirms he's standing for deputy leader - live news | Labour leadership: Richard Burgon confirms he's standing for deputy leader - live news |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen | Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen |
| Richard Burgon’s Tribune article offers one of the fuller versions available of what has become the standard Corbynite analysis of Labour’s election defeat; that Brexit was the main problem for the party, and that Corbyn’s leadership could not have been the main problem because he was also leading the party when it did much better in 2017. Burgon writes: | |
| Burgon does not set out a detailed plan for what the party should do next, but he says that it would be a mistake to abandon Corbyn’s transformational policies, that the party should set up a special commission to look into why it lost in leave seats and that in future its campaigning should focus on promoting 10 key manifesto policies. | |
| Richard Burgon, the shadow justice secretary, has announced that he is standing for the Labour deputy leadership. | Richard Burgon, the shadow justice secretary, has announced that he is standing for the Labour deputy leadership. |
| As Burgon said before Christmas when he revealed that he was considering standing, part of his pitch will be that he is a total Jeremy Corbyn loyalist who nominated Corbyn for the leadership in 2015 (when he was thought to have no chance of winning). This differentiates him from Angela Rayner, the shadow education secretary, who is seen as the favourite for the deputy leadership post, even though she has not declared her candidature yet. | As Burgon said before Christmas when he revealed that he was considering standing, part of his pitch will be that he is a total Jeremy Corbyn loyalist who nominated Corbyn for the leadership in 2015 (when he was thought to have no chance of winning). This differentiates him from Angela Rayner, the shadow education secretary, who is seen as the favourite for the deputy leadership post, even though she has not declared her candidature yet. |
| Two other candidates who are definitely standing are Dawn Butler, the shadow minister for women and equalities, and Khalid Mahmood, a shadow Europe minister. | Two other candidates who are definitely standing are Dawn Butler, the shadow minister for women and equalities, and Khalid Mahmood, a shadow Europe minister. |
| According to the former Tory chancellor, George Osborne, Conservatives want Rebecca Long Bailey to be the next leader of the Labour party. | According to the former Tory chancellor, George Osborne, Conservatives want Rebecca Long Bailey to be the next leader of the Labour party. |
| Supporters of Long Bailey, who is seen as the candidate most favoured by Corbynites at the top of the party, would argue that it does not make sense for politicians to give strategic advice to their opponents and that, if Osborne is saying this in public, that must be because he sees Long Bailey as a threat. Perhaps. But there is no evidence that Long Bailey would be more of a threat to the Tories than, say, Sir Keir Starmer, and a recent BMG poll found that people say they would prefer Starmer, Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper to replace Jeremy Corbyn than Long Bailey, who was on just 2%. Sometimes it is just best to assume politicians are telling the truth. | Supporters of Long Bailey, who is seen as the candidate most favoured by Corbynites at the top of the party, would argue that it does not make sense for politicians to give strategic advice to their opponents and that, if Osborne is saying this in public, that must be because he sees Long Bailey as a threat. Perhaps. But there is no evidence that Long Bailey would be more of a threat to the Tories than, say, Sir Keir Starmer, and a recent BMG poll found that people say they would prefer Starmer, Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper to replace Jeremy Corbyn than Long Bailey, who was on just 2%. Sometimes it is just best to assume politicians are telling the truth. |
| At this stage polling about the Labour leadership candidates is not necessarily very helpful because voters don’t know much about some of the candidates. The same BMG poll suggests 61% of people say they have never heard of Long Bailey. | At this stage polling about the Labour leadership candidates is not necessarily very helpful because voters don’t know much about some of the candidates. The same BMG poll suggests 61% of people say they have never heard of Long Bailey. |
| But it is assumed that Long Bailey would be more likely than some of her rivals to continue the broad thrust of Corbynism - which presumably explains why Osborne does not see her as a threat. | But it is assumed that Long Bailey would be more likely than some of her rivals to continue the broad thrust of Corbynism - which presumably explains why Osborne does not see her as a threat. |
| According to a YouGov index, Long Bailey is the 54th most popular Labour politician in the UK (out of 98). That puts her ahead of Lisa Nandy (55th), but behind Keith Vaz (51st). | According to a YouGov index, Long Bailey is the 54th most popular Labour politician in the UK (out of 98). That puts her ahead of Lisa Nandy (55th), but behind Keith Vaz (51st). |
| But this is not a particularly useful measure. The YouGov index is based on an average of rolling poll findings from May 2018, and so it is not up to date. And politicians are ranked according to their positive opinion score. Long Bailey has a positive opinion of just 6% (only 6% of people say they rate her positively), but her negative score (people with a negative view of her) is just 8%, making a net score of -2. Jeremy Corbyn comes fifth in this list because his positive rating is 21%. But his negative rating is 61%. | But this is not a particularly useful measure. The YouGov index is based on an average of rolling poll findings from May 2018, and so it is not up to date. And politicians are ranked according to their positive opinion score. Long Bailey has a positive opinion of just 6% (only 6% of people say they rate her positively), but her negative score (people with a negative view of her) is just 8%, making a net score of -2. Jeremy Corbyn comes fifth in this list because his positive rating is 21%. But his negative rating is 61%. |
| The Labour politician at the top of the list is Ed Balls. | The Labour politician at the top of the list is Ed Balls. |
| Since the general election Boris Johnson has been claiming that the Conservatives are now a “totally different party” because of the success he had at winning over working-class voters and voters in the north (not always the same people, of course). There is some evidence to back up what he is saying; the party is now more popular with working-class voters than it is with middle-class voters. | Since the general election Boris Johnson has been claiming that the Conservatives are now a “totally different party” because of the success he had at winning over working-class voters and voters in the north (not always the same people, of course). There is some evidence to back up what he is saying; the party is now more popular with working-class voters than it is with middle-class voters. |
| But the character of a party is not just determined by who votes for it. What is even more important is who its MPs are, and who its members are, and a ConservativeHome survey of party members today suggests that the membership has yet to embrace Johnson’s new-found proletarianism. During the Conservative leadership contest Johnson proposed raising the threshold for the higher rate of income tax from £50,000 to £80,000. This would do nothing for those on low or average earnings, and most of the benefit would go to the richest 10% of households, who would each gain about £2,500 a year. According to an Institute for Fiscal Studies analysis (pdf), this would also cost £9bn. | But the character of a party is not just determined by who votes for it. What is even more important is who its MPs are, and who its members are, and a ConservativeHome survey of party members today suggests that the membership has yet to embrace Johnson’s new-found proletarianism. During the Conservative leadership contest Johnson proposed raising the threshold for the higher rate of income tax from £50,000 to £80,000. This would do nothing for those on low or average earnings, and most of the benefit would go to the richest 10% of households, who would each gain about £2,500 a year. According to an Institute for Fiscal Studies analysis (pdf), this would also cost £9bn. |
| A genuine one nation party would not go near a policy like this. But when ConservativeHome asked members if Johnson should stick with this proposal, or drop it, about two-thirds of them said he should honour the promise. | A genuine one nation party would not go near a policy like this. But when ConservativeHome asked members if Johnson should stick with this proposal, or drop it, about two-thirds of them said he should honour the promise. |
| Johnson appears to be in a strong position. But these findings suggest that reconciling the demands of his party’s longstanding members with the interests of its new, non-traditional supporters won’t be straightforward. | Johnson appears to be in a strong position. But these findings suggest that reconciling the demands of his party’s longstanding members with the interests of its new, non-traditional supporters won’t be straightforward. |
| The Daily Mirror’s Kevin Maguire, one of the most high-profile Labour-supporting commentators in the media, thinks Jeremy Corbyn sounded “clueless” in his New Year’s message. | The Daily Mirror’s Kevin Maguire, one of the most high-profile Labour-supporting commentators in the media, thinks Jeremy Corbyn sounded “clueless” in his New Year’s message. |
| Tom Blenkinsop, a Labour MP from 2010 to 2017 and a longstanding critic of Corbyn’s, has an even harsher take on the new year message. | Tom Blenkinsop, a Labour MP from 2010 to 2017 and a longstanding critic of Corbyn’s, has an even harsher take on the new year message. |
| Sir Vince Cable, the former Lib Dem leader, has told the Daily Mail in an interview that the party’s decision to go into the election promising to revoke Brexit was a “mistake”. He explained: | Sir Vince Cable, the former Lib Dem leader, has told the Daily Mail in an interview that the party’s decision to go into the election promising to revoke Brexit was a “mistake”. He explained: |
| At the start of the election campaign the Lib Dems confirmed that their policy was to revoke Brexit. But as it became clear that this was unpopular with voters, because it sounded undemocratic, the party increasingly focused on its support for a second referendum (a more likely outcome, because it was an option backed by Labour and the Lib Dems). | At the start of the election campaign the Lib Dems confirmed that their policy was to revoke Brexit. But as it became clear that this was unpopular with voters, because it sounded undemocratic, the party increasingly focused on its support for a second referendum (a more likely outcome, because it was an option backed by Labour and the Lib Dems). |
| But Cable said, even though the prospect of the Lib Dems obtaining the majority that would allow them to revoke Brexit was most improbable, that did not stop people getting angry about the idea. “Commentators could sustain derision about the likelihood of this outcome, but also outrage about the implications,” he said. | But Cable said, even though the prospect of the Lib Dems obtaining the majority that would allow them to revoke Brexit was most improbable, that did not stop people getting angry about the idea. “Commentators could sustain derision about the likelihood of this outcome, but also outrage about the implications,” he said. |
| Phil Wilson, who was Labour MP for Sedgefield until he lost his seat at the election, says that, far from being part of the resistance to Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn has been one of Johnson’s “enablers” – helping him to stay PM. | Phil Wilson, who was Labour MP for Sedgefield until he lost his seat at the election, says that, far from being part of the resistance to Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn has been one of Johnson’s “enablers” – helping him to stay PM. |
| The Labour MP Gareth Thomas also seems unimpressed by Jeremy Corbyn’s new year message. | The Labour MP Gareth Thomas also seems unimpressed by Jeremy Corbyn’s new year message. |
| And Caroline Flint, who was a Labour MP until she lost her seat at the election, seems astonished that Corbyn did not directly mention the election result in his message. | And Caroline Flint, who was a Labour MP until she lost her seat at the election, seems astonished that Corbyn did not directly mention the election result in his message. |
| The Scottish government has said that the increase in the national living wage announced today (see 9.53am) does not go far enough. This is from Jamie Hepburn, its fair work minister, who says the Scottish government urges organisations to pay the voluntary Living Wage Foundation’s living wage instead. | The Scottish government has said that the increase in the national living wage announced today (see 9.53am) does not go far enough. This is from Jamie Hepburn, its fair work minister, who says the Scottish government urges organisations to pay the voluntary Living Wage Foundation’s living wage instead. |
| More than 200,000 people have signed a change.org petition protesting against the knighthood awarded to Iain Duncan Smith. | More than 200,000 people have signed a change.org petition protesting against the knighthood awarded to Iain Duncan Smith. |
| The former work and pensions secretary, who was responsible for the implementation of the controversial universal credit system, was named in the new year honours list, which recognises the “achievements and service of extraordinary people” in the UK. | The former work and pensions secretary, who was responsible for the implementation of the controversial universal credit system, was named in the new year honours list, which recognises the “achievements and service of extraordinary people” in the UK. |
| The petition, started by an NHS psychiatrist, says that Duncan Smith was “responsible for some of the cruellest most extreme welfare reforms this country has ever seen” which have led to “suffering and impoverishment”. | The petition, started by an NHS psychiatrist, says that Duncan Smith was “responsible for some of the cruellest most extreme welfare reforms this country has ever seen” which have led to “suffering and impoverishment”. |
| It describes his knighthood as an “insult to the hundreds of thousands of vulnerable individuals across this country who are suffering as a result of his policies” and calls for his title to be dropped. | It describes his knighthood as an “insult to the hundreds of thousands of vulnerable individuals across this country who are suffering as a result of his policies” and calls for his title to be dropped. |
| And here is another former Labour MP on the Jeremy Corbyn message. Michael Dugher briefly served in Corbyn’s first shadow cabinet before being sacked in January 2016 for disloyalty. He left parliament in 2017. | And here is another former Labour MP on the Jeremy Corbyn message. Michael Dugher briefly served in Corbyn’s first shadow cabinet before being sacked in January 2016 for disloyalty. He left parliament in 2017. |
| More reaction to Jeremy Corbyn’s new year’s message. This is from Dame Anne McGuire, Labour MP for Stirling from 1997 to 2015 and a former minister. | More reaction to Jeremy Corbyn’s new year’s message. This is from Dame Anne McGuire, Labour MP for Stirling from 1997 to 2015 and a former minister. |
| Here is the video version of Jeremy Corbyn’s controversial New Year’s message. (See 9.20am.) | Here is the video version of Jeremy Corbyn’s controversial New Year’s message. (See 9.20am.) |
| In the Guardian today my colleague Rajeev Syal reports that Angela Rayner is expected to endorse Rebecca Long Bailey for the Labour leadership in the new year, contrary to intense speculation that she might instead pursue a leadership bid of her own. | In the Guardian today my colleague Rajeev Syal reports that Angela Rayner is expected to endorse Rebecca Long Bailey for the Labour leadership in the new year, contrary to intense speculation that she might instead pursue a leadership bid of her own. |
| Here are some of the Labour leadership stories in the other papers. | Here are some of the Labour leadership stories in the other papers. |
| Sebastian Payne in the Financial Times (paywall) says the Labour left is divided over who is best placed to succeed Jeremy Corbyn. He says: | Sebastian Payne in the Financial Times (paywall) says the Labour left is divided over who is best placed to succeed Jeremy Corbyn. He says: |
| But Henry Yorke in the Daily Telegraph (paywall) says Labour “moderates” think Lavery is only floating the idea he might run to boost Long Bailey’s chances. He says: | But Henry Yorke in the Daily Telegraph (paywall) says Labour “moderates” think Lavery is only floating the idea he might run to boost Long Bailey’s chances. He says: |
| Henry Zeffman in the Times (paywall) says Rayner is being urged by some of her supporters not to back Long Bailey for Labour leader. He says: | Henry Zeffman in the Times (paywall) says Rayner is being urged by some of her supporters not to back Long Bailey for Labour leader. He says: |
| Tom Newton Dunn in the Sun says some leadership candidates fear Jeremy Corbyn’s allies on Labour’s national executive committee will shorten the timescale for the leadership contest to boost the chances of Long Bailey winning. He says: | Tom Newton Dunn in the Sun says some leadership candidates fear Jeremy Corbyn’s allies on Labour’s national executive committee will shorten the timescale for the leadership contest to boost the chances of Long Bailey winning. He says: |
| The Resolution Foundation, a thinktank specialising in issues affecting those on low and middle incomes, has welcomed the increase in the national living wage (see 9.53am) - although it says the government plan to increase it to £10.50 an hour by 2024 is “not risk free”. Nye Cominetti, an economic analyst at the foundation, said: | The Resolution Foundation, a thinktank specialising in issues affecting those on low and middle incomes, has welcomed the increase in the national living wage (see 9.53am) - although it says the government plan to increase it to £10.50 an hour by 2024 is “not risk free”. Nye Cominetti, an economic analyst at the foundation, said: |
| Today the government has announced that the national living wage (the minimum wage for over-25s) will increase by four times the rate of inflation. The Treasury press notice about the move is here, and my colleague Richard Partington’s news story is here. | Today the government has announced that the national living wage (the minimum wage for over-25s) will increase by four times the rate of inflation. The Treasury press notice about the move is here, and my colleague Richard Partington’s news story is here. |
| Business groups have expressed some concern about the move. | Business groups have expressed some concern about the move. |
| The Federation of Small Businesses said increases in the NLW on this scale could be self-defeating. In a statement Craig Beaumont, the FSB’s director of external affairs and advocacy, said: | The Federation of Small Businesses said increases in the NLW on this scale could be self-defeating. In a statement Craig Beaumont, the FSB’s director of external affairs and advocacy, said: |
| And the British Chambers of Commerce said this increase would put pressure on businesses. Hannah Essex, the BCC’s co-executive director, said: | And the British Chambers of Commerce said this increase would put pressure on businesses. Hannah Essex, the BCC’s co-executive director, said: |
| Good morning. It’s New Year’s Eve, which means it’s time for political leaders to issue their new year’s messages. It is hard to know why they bother (particularly given that they are now expected to produce a Christmas message too just the week before). If they say something bland, no one takes any notice. And if the message is noteworthy, that’s probably for the wrong reasons – as Jeremy Corbyn is discovering this morning. | Good morning. It’s New Year’s Eve, which means it’s time for political leaders to issue their new year’s messages. It is hard to know why they bother (particularly given that they are now expected to produce a Christmas message too just the week before). If they say something bland, no one takes any notice. And if the message is noteworthy, that’s probably for the wrong reasons – as Jeremy Corbyn is discovering this morning. |
| His message contains no direct reference to the general election, although there is an oblique reference to it in the opening line – which must count as a very late, but unbeatable, entry for the prize of understatement of the decade. | His message contains no direct reference to the general election, although there is an oblique reference to it in the opening line – which must count as a very late, but unbeatable, entry for the prize of understatement of the decade. |
| The rest of the message talks about how the Labour party will be “the resistance to Boris Johnson”. I will post it in full because it does not seem to be available online. | The rest of the message talks about how the Labour party will be “the resistance to Boris Johnson”. I will post it in full because it does not seem to be available online. |
| All of this (apart from the reference to how the party membership has soared) is the sort of thing that Corbyn might reasonably have said at the end of 2015, when he had just taken over as leader of the Labour party. But after four years as leader, two election defeats, one of which was devastating after an election Corbyn voted for, the lack of introspection, or self-criticism, is remarkable. | All of this (apart from the reference to how the party membership has soared) is the sort of thing that Corbyn might reasonably have said at the end of 2015, when he had just taken over as leader of the Labour party. But after four years as leader, two election defeats, one of which was devastating after an election Corbyn voted for, the lack of introspection, or self-criticism, is remarkable. |
| Here is some reaction from Labour figures not on the Corbynite wing of the party. | Here is some reaction from Labour figures not on the Corbynite wing of the party. |
| From Neil Coyle, the Labour MP for Bermondsey and Old Southwark | From Neil Coyle, the Labour MP for Bermondsey and Old Southwark |
| From the former Labour MP Jim Fitzpatrick | From the former Labour MP Jim Fitzpatrick |
| From Tom Hamilton, an adviser to Ed Miliband when he was Labour leader | From Tom Hamilton, an adviser to Ed Miliband when he was Labour leader |
| From Darren Murphy, a former No 10 adviser in the Blair era | From Darren Murphy, a former No 10 adviser in the Blair era |
| It looks as if it is going to be a quiet news day but, as usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary when I wrap up. | It looks as if it is going to be a quiet news day but, as usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary when I wrap up. |
| You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. | You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. |
| If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. | If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. |
| I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. | I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. |
| If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. | If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. |