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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/dec/30/hong-kong-recession-protests-markets-nikkei-ftse-business-live
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| Hong Kong recession to continue as protests hit economy - business live | Hong Kong recession to continue as protests hit economy - business live |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news | Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news |
| The pick-up in UK mortgage approvals in November is a “significant surprise”, says Howard Archer of the EY Item Club. | |
| He suspects that some home owners may have been keen to move before the general election, as a hung parliament could have created more economic uncertainty in 2020. | |
| Here’s his take: | |
| A significant upward surprise as UK Finance reported mortgage approvals for house purchases spiked to 43,700 in November, which was the highest level since January 2017. Mortgage approvals had previously fallen back over the previous three months to be at a 7-month low in October | |
| November’s jump in mortgage approvals was all the more surprising as the expectation had been that housing market activity would be hampered by heightened political uncertainties. This was certainly indicated by November surveys, notably from the RICS | |
| Indeed, the housing market had clearly been pressurized over the previous three months by a potent cocktail of Brexit, economic and domestic political uncertainties. It is also notable that while consumers have benefited from markedly improved earnings growth and rising employment over much of 2019, these fundamentals reached a peak around June/July in terms of employment and earnings growth. | |
| It is possible that mortgage approvals were lifted in November by some house buyers looking to move before the General Election amid concerns over a potential change of government | |
| Those gains in Hong Kong and China today have lifted Asian stock markets to their highest levels in 18 months today. | Those gains in Hong Kong and China today have lifted Asian stock markets to their highest levels in 18 months today. |
| MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific stocks nudged its highest level since June 2018, as investors push shares higher in thin trading. | MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific stocks nudged its highest level since June 2018, as investors push shares higher in thin trading. |
| Japan’s Nikkei dipped slightly on its final trading session of the year, but still ended 2019 up a sizzling 18%. | Japan’s Nikkei dipped slightly on its final trading session of the year, but still ended 2019 up a sizzling 18%. |
| Of course, the Nikkei is still way below its all-time highs, hit three decades ago: | Of course, the Nikkei is still way below its all-time highs, hit three decades ago: |
| But overall, 2019 has been a very strong year for stock markets. Many indices are up over 20%, lifted by loose monetary policy, easing recession fears, and hopes of a permanent ceasefire in the US-China trade war. | But overall, 2019 has been a very strong year for stock markets. Many indices are up over 20%, lifted by loose monetary policy, easing recession fears, and hopes of a permanent ceasefire in the US-China trade war. |
| Back in the UK, the number of mortgages approved by banks has jumped, despite Brexit uncertainty and this month’s general election. | Back in the UK, the number of mortgages approved by banks has jumped, despite Brexit uncertainty and this month’s general election. |
| Mortgage approvals for home purchases by the main high street banks in November 2019 were 6.8% higher than a year ago, while remortgage approvals were 12.7% higher. | Mortgage approvals for home purchases by the main high street banks in November 2019 were 6.8% higher than a year ago, while remortgage approvals were 12.7% higher. |
| UK Finance, the industry trade body, also reports that credit card spending fell by 3.3% year-on-year last month to £10.9bn. | UK Finance, the industry trade body, also reports that credit card spending fell by 3.3% year-on-year last month to £10.9bn. |
| Andrew Montlake, managing director of UK mortgage broker, Coreco, reckons some households decided to nail down their mortgage before Britons went to the polling stations: | Andrew Montlake, managing director of UK mortgage broker, Coreco, reckons some households decided to nail down their mortgage before Britons went to the polling stations: |
| Despite these recession warnings, Hong Kong’s stock market has closed at a five-month high today. | Despite these recession warnings, Hong Kong’s stock market has closed at a five-month high today. |
| The Hang Seng index gained 93 points, or 0.33%, to 28,319. | The Hang Seng index gained 93 points, or 0.33%, to 28,319. |
| China’s market also had a good day, gaining more than 1%. | China’s market also had a good day, gaining more than 1%. |
| Stocks rallied after Beijing announced plans to reform its interest rate system. Commercial banks are being asked to use fresh benchmark rates for new loans, which are more closely aligned to market rates. Analysts think this will lead to lower borrowing costs, stimulating the economy. | Stocks rallied after Beijing announced plans to reform its interest rate system. Commercial banks are being asked to use fresh benchmark rates for new loans, which are more closely aligned to market rates. Analysts think this will lead to lower borrowing costs, stimulating the economy. |
| Thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in Hong Kong in recent days, as the pro-democracy action enter their seventh month. | Thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in Hong Kong in recent days, as the pro-democracy action enter their seventh month. |
| These latest demonstrations will have deterred some consumers from hitting the shops, hurting retail spending and helping to keep the economy in recession. | These latest demonstrations will have deterred some consumers from hitting the shops, hurting retail spending and helping to keep the economy in recession. |
| The Financial Times has a piece about how Hong Kong retailers have suffered a bad Christmas period: | The Financial Times has a piece about how Hong Kong retailers have suffered a bad Christmas period: |
| Just in: Hong Kong’s imports and exports have both fallen, as its recession dampens demand for goods and services. | Just in: Hong Kong’s imports and exports have both fallen, as its recession dampens demand for goods and services. |
| The Census and Statistics Department has reported that imports slumped by 5.8% year-on-year in November, while exports declined by 1.4%. | The Census and Statistics Department has reported that imports slumped by 5.8% year-on-year in November, while exports declined by 1.4%. |
| Hong Kong’s recession is hitting its financial sector workers hard. | Hong Kong’s recession is hitting its financial sector workers hard. |
| The city’s bankers and stockbrokers are expecting to receive their smallest bonuses and pay rises since the financial crisis. | The city’s bankers and stockbrokers are expecting to receive their smallest bonuses and pay rises since the financial crisis. |
| This is due to the impact of the pro-democracy protests and the knock-on effect of the trade war between the US and China. | This is due to the impact of the pro-democracy protests and the knock-on effect of the trade war between the US and China. |
| The South China Post reports that bonus pots could be the shallowest in 10 years. | The South China Post reports that bonus pots could be the shallowest in 10 years. |
| Hong Kong’s administration is expected to take fresh measures to support growth in 2020. | Hong Kong’s administration is expected to take fresh measures to support growth in 2020. |
| Alongside his recession warning, Paul Chan says that his budget, due in February, will include measures for: | Alongside his recession warning, Paul Chan says that his budget, due in February, will include measures for: |
| Hong Kong’s chief secretary, Matthew Cheung, has also warned that the City faces “tough tests and challenges in 2020”. | Hong Kong’s chief secretary, Matthew Cheung, has also warned that the City faces “tough tests and challenges in 2020”. |
| In his own blogpost, Cheung wrote: | In his own blogpost, Cheung wrote: |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| The final week of the year is a time for taking stock, and looking ahead. But for Hong Kong, that means bracing for a longer downturn. | The final week of the year is a time for taking stock, and looking ahead. But for Hong Kong, that means bracing for a longer downturn. |
| The city’s finance chief has warned that the economy has contracted in the last quarter of 2019, dragging it even deeper into recession. | The city’s finance chief has warned that the economy has contracted in the last quarter of 2019, dragging it even deeper into recession. |
| Finance Secretary Paul Chan said the protests that have gripped Hong Kong for months – and become increasingly violent – has hurt its economy badly. | Finance Secretary Paul Chan said the protests that have gripped Hong Kong for months – and become increasingly violent – has hurt its economy badly. |
| In a blog post, Chan warned: | In a blog post, Chan warned: |
| Hong Kong officially slumped into recession in the third quarter of this year, with GDP contracting by an alarming 3.2% in July-September. Retail spending has suffered a major contraction, as the sight of demonstrators clashing with riot police has deterred tourists from visiting. | Hong Kong officially slumped into recession in the third quarter of this year, with GDP contracting by an alarming 3.2% in July-September. Retail spending has suffered a major contraction, as the sight of demonstrators clashing with riot police has deterred tourists from visiting. |
| This has had a knock-on impact on companies across the world, from airlines such as Cathay Pacific to Europe’s luxury goods producers. | This has had a knock-on impact on companies across the world, from airlines such as Cathay Pacific to Europe’s luxury goods producers. |
| Visitor arrivals from China fell a record 46% in October to slightly more than 2.5 million, less than half of the record set in January. The most recent data for retail sales in Hong Kong showed a 24.3% plunge, the biggest ever, according to Gulf News. | Visitor arrivals from China fell a record 46% in October to slightly more than 2.5 million, less than half of the record set in January. The most recent data for retail sales in Hong Kong showed a 24.3% plunge, the biggest ever, according to Gulf News. |
| Chan says this downturn has a serious impact on the government’s finances: | Chan says this downturn has a serious impact on the government’s finances: |
| The protests have dropped out of the headlines recently, after the authorities ended a siege at Hong Kong Polytechnic University. But the pro-democracy movement hasn’t gone away; thousands took part in a protest yesterday. | The protests have dropped out of the headlines recently, after the authorities ended a siege at Hong Kong Polytechnic University. But the pro-democracy movement hasn’t gone away; thousands took part in a protest yesterday. |
| The movement plans to begin the new year with a large demonstration on Wednesday, renewing their demands for an amnesty for arrested protesters, an independent inquiry into alleged police brutality, and complete universal suffrage for the City. | The movement plans to begin the new year with a large demonstration on Wednesday, renewing their demands for an amnesty for arrested protesters, an independent inquiry into alleged police brutality, and complete universal suffrage for the City. |
| Also coming up today | Also coming up today |
| The economic calendar is pretty bare, beyond some UK mortgage approvals figures and US trade data. | The economic calendar is pretty bare, beyond some UK mortgage approvals figures and US trade data. |
| European stock markets are expected to dip a little this morning, with the FTSE 100 dipping by 13 points or 0.2% in early trading. | European stock markets are expected to dip a little this morning, with the FTSE 100 dipping by 13 points or 0.2% in early trading. |
| The agenda | The agenda |
| 9.30am GMT: UK home loan approvals data for November: expected to dip to 41200, from 41219 | 9.30am GMT: UK home loan approvals data for November: expected to dip to 41200, from 41219 |
| 1.30pm GMT: US trade balance for November; expected to widen to -$68.8bn, from -$66.5bn | 1.30pm GMT: US trade balance for November; expected to widen to -$68.8bn, from -$66.5bn |