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In Japan, Iran’s President May Be Seeking a Line to the U.S. In Japan, Iran’s President May Be Seeking a Line to the U.S.
(about 5 hours later)
TOKYO — President Hassan Rouhani of Iran arrived in Japan on Friday for talks with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, amid speculation that Mr. Rouhani may seek to use the two countries’ friendly relationship to open a new line of communication with the Trump administration. TOKYO — President Hassan Rouhani of Iran met on Friday with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan, as speculation intensified that Mr. Abe’s friendly relations with the Iranians and the Trump administration could create a new diplomatic opening to ease tensions.
The meeting comes as Mr. Rouhani faces steep challenges at home and abroad. American sanctions on oil sales, imposed by President Trump after he pulled the United States out of the 2015 global deal aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, have crippled Iran’s economy. And Iran has faced a growing backlash in the Middle East since it crushed a nationwide antigovernment uprising in November. The two-day visit — the first by an Iranian head of state to Japan in nearly 20 years — came as Mr. Rouhani faces steep challenges at home and abroad. American sanctions on oil sales, imposed by President Trump after he withdrew the United States from a 2015 agreement aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear activities, have severely hurt Iran’s economy. And Iran has faced a growing backlash over its entanglements in the Middle East and its severe repression of domestic antigovernment protests last month.
Analysts said Japan, which is trusted by both the United States and Iran, could be well positioned to broker a new dialogue between the two countries, after the collapse of similar efforts by France. Japan’s broadcaster NHK quoted Mr. Rouhani as telling his Japanese host that “peace and stability in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf regions are extremely important for our country.” Mr. Rouhani also reiterated Iran’s longstanding criticism of the United States over what he called its “one-sided and irrational withdrawal” from the nuclear agreement.
“I hope Japan and other nations in the world make an effort toward the maintenance of the agreement,” NHK quoted Mr. Rouhani as saying.
NHK said Mr. Abe told Mr. Rouhani that he expected Iran to abide by the agreement and “fulfill the constructive duty for peace and stability in the region.” Mr. Abe also said the Japanese would “try to fulfill our role to ease and stabilize the tension in the region.”
Analysts said that Japan, trusted by both the United States and Iran, could be well positioned to broker a new dialogue between the two countries, after the collapse of similar efforts by France.
Their meeting took place amid other signs that Iran and the United States are looking for ways to talk. Two weeks ago Iran released an American scholar, Xiyue Wang, in a prisoner exchange that Mr. Trump described on Twitter as a fair negotiation by Iran that demonstrated “we can make a deal together!”
And in what appeared to be an extraordinary diplomatic gesture captured on video at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Thursday, the American ambassador, Kelly Craft, walked over to chat with her Iranian counterpart, Majid Takht-Ravanchi. While their aides sought to play down its significance, such a public encounter has rarely been seen in recent years between American and Iranian diplomats at the United Nations.
Kazuo Takahashi, a professor emeritus at the Open University of Japan who specializes in Middle East politics, said Mr. Rouhani hoped to show with his visit that Iran was still respected and not isolated, “and that he may even be able to get some concessions from Japan or the United States.”Kazuo Takahashi, a professor emeritus at the Open University of Japan who specializes in Middle East politics, said Mr. Rouhani hoped to show with his visit that Iran was still respected and not isolated, “and that he may even be able to get some concessions from Japan or the United States.”
He may even hope to pass a message to Mr. Trump that “he might be willing to talk,” Mr. Takahashi said, citing a recent prisoner swap between Iran and the United States as evidence that negotiations between the two countries are possible. Mr. Takahashi speculated that Mr. Rouhani had passed a message to Mr. Trump that “he might be willing to talk,” citing the recent prisoner exchange as evidence.
Iran has played down such suggestions. Mr. Rouhani has said that purpose of his visit is to discuss the security of the Middle East and calming tensions in the Persian Gulf. On Monday, Ali Rabiei, a government spokesman, said Mr. Rouhani’s trip was “not related to negotiating with the U.S., but we welcome Japan’s messages and new efforts.” Iran has publicly distanced itself from any suggestion of a quick diplomatic breakthrough with the United States. Mr. Rouhani has said that the purpose of his visit was to discuss the security of the Middle East and to calm tensions in the Persian Gulf. On Monday, Ali Rabiei, a government spokesman, said Mr. Rouhani’s trip was “not related to negotiating with the U.S., but we welcome Japan’s messages and new efforts.”
The meeting with Mr. Abe was requested on relatively short notice by Iran, according to a Japanese government official who was briefed on the issue. Mr. Takahashi believes that could suggest that the Iranians have “an urgent, important message they want to give to Mr. Trump.” Still, the meeting with Mr. Abe had been requested on relatively short notice by Iran, according to a Japanese government official briefed on the issue. Mr. Takahashi said that was an indication the Iranians had “an urgent, important message they want to give to Mr. Trump.”
In Iran, both supporters and opponents of Mr. Rouhani are closely watching the trip for signs of a breakthrough. Many Iranians want a diplomatic solution to the sanctions, as does Mr. Rouhani’s political party. In Iran, supporters and opponents of Mr. Rouhani were scrutinizing the trip for signs of an opening with the Americans. Many Iranians want a diplomatic solution to the sanctions, as does Mr. Rouhani’s political party.
But Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly ruled out talks with the United States as long as sanctions are in place and the country continues to forgo its commitments under the nuclear deal. And opponents of Mr. Rouhani, in newspapers and on social media, have warned the leader against selling out the country’s interests in Tokyo. But Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly ruled out talks with the United States as long as sanctions remain in place.
They need not worry, according to Yukio Okamoto, a former Japanese diplomat and policy adviser to past prime ministers, who says the meeting is unlikely to have significant results. Yukio Okamoto, a former Japanese diplomat and policy adviser to past prime ministers, said he believed Mr. Rouhani’s visit to Japan would not achieve anything but a possible “incremental softening” in relations between Iran and the United States.
Japan realizes that it will not be able to create a dramatic about-face in the relationship between Washington and Tehran, he said: “It can only effect an incremental softening.” Still, he said, the “atmospherics” created by the meeting were important, “communicating to the world the message that Iran is ready to talk.”
Still, he said, the “atmospherics” created by the meeting will be important, “communicating to the world the message that Iran is ready to talk.” Previous attempts by Japan to serve as a go-between have achieved little. Mr. Abe went to Iran in June as rising tensions between Iran and the United States raised fears of war. But his efforts to deliver a message on Mr. Trump’s behalf to Ayatollah Khamenei were rebuffed.
Previous attempts by Japan to serve as a go-between have had little success. Mr. Abe went to Iran in June, intent on making peace between Tehran and Washington as rising tensions between the two raised fears of war. But his efforts to deliver a message on Mr. Trump’s behalf to Ayatollah Khamenei were rebuffed. In a further embarrassment to Mr. Abe during that visit, two tankers — one operated by a Japanese firm — came under attack in the Gulf of Oman, an act of aggression that the United States blamed on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Adding injury to insult, while Mr. Abe was still in Iran, two tankers — one of them operated by a Japanese firm — came under attack in the Gulf of Oman, an act of aggression that the United States blamed on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
After that incident, the United States called for an international coalition to protect shipping in the region. But only a few American allies have joined that venture, and Japan is not among them.After that incident, the United States called for an international coalition to protect shipping in the region. But only a few American allies have joined that venture, and Japan is not among them.
Mr. Trump has pressed Mr. Abe to contribute more to American military efforts overseas, including a significant increase in financial support for United States forces stationed in Japan. After the Gulf of Oman attacks in June, Mr. Trump complained that the United States was protecting Japanese ships for “zero compensation.”Mr. Trump has pressed Mr. Abe to contribute more to American military efforts overseas, including a significant increase in financial support for United States forces stationed in Japan. After the Gulf of Oman attacks in June, Mr. Trump complained that the United States was protecting Japanese ships for “zero compensation.”
That has left Japan in a tough spot. Tehran sees Tokyo as an impartial interlocutor, and Mr. Abe does not want to hurt that relationship. But he needs to balance that concern against American demands that Japan shoulder a larger part of its own defense burden. That has left Japan in an awkward position. Mr. Abe does not want to hurt his relationship with Iran, but needs to balance that concern against American demands that Japan shoulder a larger part of its own defense burden.
Complicating the situation, Japan’s Constitution puts strict restrictions on the country’s use of force, which has limited Tokyo’s participation in international peacekeeping efforts. In hopes of finding a middle ground, Mr. Abe is preparing to dispatch a Japanese destroyer and patrol plane to the Middle East, where the craft will conduct an independent “investigation and research” mission.
In hopes of finding a middle ground, Mr. Abe is preparing to dispatch a Japanese destroyer and patrol plane to the Middle East, where the craft will conduct an independent “investigation and research” mission — a compromise meant to circumvent legal restrictions at home, while also avoiding the impression that he is in league with Mr. Trump against Tehran. Under the plan, expected to be approved next week, the ship and the plane will not enter the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil-shipping lane. Instead operations would be limited to the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman and the Gulf of Aden, where Japan has conducted antipiracy activities.
Under the plan, which is expected to be approved next week, the ship and the plane will not enter the Strait of Hormuz, instead limiting their operations to the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman and the Gulf of Aden, where Japan has conducted antipiracy activities.
So far, Mr. Abe “is managing to thread the needle between the U.S. and Iran,” Tobias Harris, an expert on Japanese politics at Teneo Intelligence, a consulting firm in Washington, said in an email.So far, Mr. Abe “is managing to thread the needle between the U.S. and Iran,” Tobias Harris, an expert on Japanese politics at Teneo Intelligence, a consulting firm in Washington, said in an email.
The Japanese “deployment to the region will be on extremely limited rules of engagement,” yet “the US doesn’t seem too bothered,” he wrote. Mr. Harris added that Mr. Rouhani was unlikely to object to the mission, as “his visit suggests that Tehran would prefer to keep channels of communication open with Japan.”The Japanese “deployment to the region will be on extremely limited rules of engagement,” yet “the US doesn’t seem too bothered,” he wrote. Mr. Harris added that Mr. Rouhani was unlikely to object to the mission, as “his visit suggests that Tehran would prefer to keep channels of communication open with Japan.”
Mr. Rouhani’s approval of the deployment, or at least his acquiescence to it, would be useful to Mr. Abe as he tries to sell the mission to a Japanese public that tends to be skeptical of military missions overseas.Mr. Rouhani’s approval of the deployment, or at least his acquiescence to it, would be useful to Mr. Abe as he tries to sell the mission to a Japanese public that tends to be skeptical of military missions overseas.
During his two-day visit, Mr. Rouhani may also be hoping that Japan will offer Iran some economic relief. Mr. Rouhani may also be hoping that Japan will offer Iran some economic relief.
In a gathering Monday to mark the 90th anniversary of relations between the countries, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that he hoped Japan — once a major buyer of Iranian crude — would restart oil purchases that stopped after the introduction of the American sanctions, the Japanese broadcaster NHK reported. In a gathering this past Monday to mark the 90th anniversary of relations between the countries, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that he hoped Japan — once a major buyer of Iranian crude — would restart oil purchases that stopped after the introduction of the American sanctions, NHK reported.
Mr. Abe may be able to offer some form of humanitarian aid, which does not fall under the sanctions regime, but any hope that Japan will resume buying Iran’s oil in the near future is wishful thinking, said Sachi Sakanashi, a researcher at the Institute of Energy Economics in Japan who specializes in Iranian politics. Mr. Abe may be able to offer some form of humanitarian aid, which does not fall under the sanctions regime, but prospects that Japan will resume buying Iran’s oil in the near future are unlikely, said Sachi Sakanashi, a researcher at the Institute of Energy Economics in Japan who specializes in Iranian politics.
Still, Ms. Sakanashi said, it is in Tokyo’s best interests to keep up good relations. Japan is always on the lookout for sources of oil, she said, and “U.S. sanctions probably won’t continue forever.”Still, Ms. Sakanashi said, it is in Tokyo’s best interests to keep up good relations. Japan is always on the lookout for sources of oil, she said, and “U.S. sanctions probably won’t continue forever.”
Ben Dooley reported from Tokyo and Farnaz Fassihi from New York. Ben Dooley reported from Tokyo and Farnaz Fassihi from New York. Rick Gladstone contributed reporting from New York.