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| With Few Cards to Play, Zelensky Meets Putin Face to Face | With Few Cards to Play, Zelensky Meets Putin Face to Face |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| PARIS — It had the makings of a singularly unequal contest: a former KGB agent and seasoned master of no-holds-barred global intrigue versus a former comedian bereft of any experience in power politics and battered by his country’s bruising encounters with President Trump. | |
| President Vladimir V. Putin, Russia’s master for nearly 20 years, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, in office for just six months and with far fewer military and economic resources to call on, met for the first time on Monday, seeking an end to five and a half years of war. | |
| Adding to the imbalance, the face-off in Paris was being refereed by Angela Merkel, Germany’s lame-duck chancellor, and President Emmanuel Macron of France, who has tilted in recent months to a more conciliatory approach toward Russia. | |
| And as Mr. Zelensky seeks an end to the conflict with Russian-backed separatists who control a large part of eastern Ukraine, he entered negotiations without the counterweight Ukraine had in its favor until recently: clear backing from the United States. | |
| The encounter was more likely to end in stalemate than a walkover for Mr. Putin, said John E. Herbst, a former United States ambassador to Ukraine. | |
| “Putin is not going to make any concessions,” Mr. Herbst said, “so there are two options: Zelensky decides to make major concessions, or nothing happens.” The latter is more likely, he added. | “Putin is not going to make any concessions,” Mr. Herbst said, “so there are two options: Zelensky decides to make major concessions, or nothing happens.” The latter is more likely, he added. |
| When the leaders emerged for a news conference late Monday night in Paris, Mr. Macron made clear there had been no breakthrough, only incremental progress toward a future prisoner exchange; an agreement on the need to actually implement a repeatedly violated cease-fire agreement reached in 2015; and an agreement to hold another meeting with the same leaders in four months. | |
| “We have not found a magic wand or a magic bullet,” Mr. Macron said. “But we have relaunched the peace process.” | |
| Under mounting pressure at home to stand firm, Mr. Zelensky has limited room to maneuver, especially as his previous gestures of good will, notably the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the front line, have won no reciprocal steps by Russia or the rebels it supports in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. | Under mounting pressure at home to stand firm, Mr. Zelensky has limited room to maneuver, especially as his previous gestures of good will, notably the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the front line, have won no reciprocal steps by Russia or the rebels it supports in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. |
| As if to illustrate the imbalance, at the Élysée Palace, where each president was saluted on Monday by a French honor guard, Mr. Zelensky arrived first in a modest gray Renault, followed by Mr. Putin in an Aurus, a massive, Russian-made limousine. | As if to illustrate the imbalance, at the Élysée Palace, where each president was saluted on Monday by a French honor guard, Mr. Zelensky arrived first in a modest gray Renault, followed by Mr. Putin in an Aurus, a massive, Russian-made limousine. |
| The war has killed more than 13,000 combatants and civilians, and the Paris meeting will try to revive a stillborn peace deal that was reached in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, in 2015. | The war has killed more than 13,000 combatants and civilians, and the Paris meeting will try to revive a stillborn peace deal that was reached in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, in 2015. |
| Both leaders have much to gain. Mr. Putin desperately wants the West to lift sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 over its annexation of Crimea and its sponsorship of the separatists. Mr. Zelensky, a political neophyte, won a landslide victory in Ukraine’s April presidential election on promises to end the fighting. | Both leaders have much to gain. Mr. Putin desperately wants the West to lift sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 over its annexation of Crimea and its sponsorship of the separatists. Mr. Zelensky, a political neophyte, won a landslide victory in Ukraine’s April presidential election on promises to end the fighting. |
| But Mr. Zelensky also has much to lose. | But Mr. Zelensky also has much to lose. |
| Rather than annexing the breakaway territory in the east, Russia has made clear that its aim is to keep Ukraine firmly under its influence, not integrated with the West economically, militarily or politically. Mr. Putin’s government has indicated that Ukraine could regain at least nominal sovereignty over the region, and control of its eastern border with Russia. | Rather than annexing the breakaway territory in the east, Russia has made clear that its aim is to keep Ukraine firmly under its influence, not integrated with the West economically, militarily or politically. Mr. Putin’s government has indicated that Ukraine could regain at least nominal sovereignty over the region, and control of its eastern border with Russia. |
| Moscow’s price for such a settlement includes Ukraine staying out of the European Union and NATO, and changing its Constitution to give more authority to regional governments — including those where pro-Russian forces are likely to govern. | Moscow’s price for such a settlement includes Ukraine staying out of the European Union and NATO, and changing its Constitution to give more authority to regional governments — including those where pro-Russian forces are likely to govern. |
| Such an agreement would be seen by many Ukrainians as a capitulation to Mr. Putin and an infringement on their country’s independence. Yet there is no approach that commands anything resembling majority support in Ukraine — neither making the concessions Russia is seeking, nor continuing the war, nor ceding control of the territory. | Such an agreement would be seen by many Ukrainians as a capitulation to Mr. Putin and an infringement on their country’s independence. Yet there is no approach that commands anything resembling majority support in Ukraine — neither making the concessions Russia is seeking, nor continuing the war, nor ceding control of the territory. |
| The Minsk agreements mapped out steps to be taken by each side, including elections in rebel-held regions, the return to Ukrainian control of a now-porous border with Russia, greater autonomy for the separatist region, and the disarming of militant groups. But the plan left unclear their sequence, with Russia insisting that political steps come first, while Ukraine wants to begin with those involving security. | The Minsk agreements mapped out steps to be taken by each side, including elections in rebel-held regions, the return to Ukrainian control of a now-porous border with Russia, greater autonomy for the separatist region, and the disarming of militant groups. But the plan left unclear their sequence, with Russia insisting that political steps come first, while Ukraine wants to begin with those involving security. |
| Worried that Mr. Zelensky might succumb to Mr. Putin’s powers of persuasion, as Mr. Trump did in Helsinki in July last year, three opposition groups in Ukraine issued a manifesto ahead of the Paris meeting drawing six “red lines” that should not be crossed. They demanded that Mr. Zelensky make no concessions to Mr. Putin on Ukraine’s “Euro-Atlantic” foreign policy, the status of eastern regions and the timing of elections in territory occupied by Russian-backed separatists. | Worried that Mr. Zelensky might succumb to Mr. Putin’s powers of persuasion, as Mr. Trump did in Helsinki in July last year, three opposition groups in Ukraine issued a manifesto ahead of the Paris meeting drawing six “red lines” that should not be crossed. They demanded that Mr. Zelensky make no concessions to Mr. Putin on Ukraine’s “Euro-Atlantic” foreign policy, the status of eastern regions and the timing of elections in territory occupied by Russian-backed separatists. |
| Mr. Zelensky’s predecessor as president, Petro O. Poroshenko, urged Mr. Zelensky to “avoid meeting one on one with Putin,” who he said could never be trusted. If he must sit down with his Russian counterpart, Mr. Poroshenko wrote in an editorial published on Friday, Mr. Zelensky must “resist his KGB manipulations and flattery.” | Mr. Zelensky’s predecessor as president, Petro O. Poroshenko, urged Mr. Zelensky to “avoid meeting one on one with Putin,” who he said could never be trusted. If he must sit down with his Russian counterpart, Mr. Poroshenko wrote in an editorial published on Friday, Mr. Zelensky must “resist his KGB manipulations and flattery.” |
| The United States has never been formally involved in shaping or enacting the Minsk agreements, but under President Barack Obama it played a central role in “lassoing the various sides,” said Alina Polyakova of the Brookings Institution in Washington. | The United States has never been formally involved in shaping or enacting the Minsk agreements, but under President Barack Obama it played a central role in “lassoing the various sides,” said Alina Polyakova of the Brookings Institution in Washington. |
| But Mr. Trump has been besieged by impeachment hearings focused on his dealings with Ukraine — specifically, delaying promised military aid and withholding a much-coveted White House meeting with Mr. Zelensky — and criticism of repeated foreign policy shifts that favor Mr. Putin. | But Mr. Trump has been besieged by impeachment hearings focused on his dealings with Ukraine — specifically, delaying promised military aid and withholding a much-coveted White House meeting with Mr. Zelensky — and criticism of repeated foreign policy shifts that favor Mr. Putin. |
| Mr. Trump has shown little inclination to get involved in the nitty-gritty of settling the war, telling Mr. Zelensky when they met in New York in September, “I really hope you and President Putin get together and can solve your problem.” | Mr. Trump has shown little inclination to get involved in the nitty-gritty of settling the war, telling Mr. Zelensky when they met in New York in September, “I really hope you and President Putin get together and can solve your problem.” |
| Many Trump administration officials who advocated for supporting Ukraine in its struggle against Russia have resigned or been sidelined. | Many Trump administration officials who advocated for supporting Ukraine in its struggle against Russia have resigned or been sidelined. |
| The State Department’s special envoy for Ukraine and its point man for settling the conflict in the east, Kurt D. Volker, resigned in September. | The State Department’s special envoy for Ukraine and its point man for settling the conflict in the east, Kurt D. Volker, resigned in September. |
| Since the last peace talks in 2016, Ms. Polyakova said, “Putin has gained a lot more leverage because of U.S. absenteeism and France’s pivot towards a Russian reset.” A one-sided settlement, she said, would cripple the country and rally Mr. Zelensky’s domestic foes. | Since the last peace talks in 2016, Ms. Polyakova said, “Putin has gained a lot more leverage because of U.S. absenteeism and France’s pivot towards a Russian reset.” A one-sided settlement, she said, would cripple the country and rally Mr. Zelensky’s domestic foes. |
| Because of this, she added, “my best-case scenario is that nothing comes out of all this.” | Because of this, she added, “my best-case scenario is that nothing comes out of all this.” |