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| French Strikes Are a Fresh Test for Macron | |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| PARIS — President Emmanuel Macron is facing his biggest test since the “Yellow Vest” uprising shook his presidency a year ago, as unions representing railway and transportation workers and many others in the public sector called for a mass walkout on Thursday to protest changes to France’s uniquely generous pension system. | |
| The strike began to unfold on Wednesday evening as workers at the national railway SNCF walked off the job. The walkout threatens to paralyze France for several days or more, with teachers, students, hospital employees, police officers, garbage collectors, truck drivers and airline workers all expected to join. | |
| By Thursday morning, the strike was taking hold across the country: Public transit was highly limited if nonexistent in many areas, most notably in Paris; stores and banks were boarded up; truck drivers were engaged in a slowdown; airlines canceled flights; and the police were preparing for hundreds of protests. | |
| The fresh round of social unrest is once again calling into question Mr. Macron’s top-down management style, a big factor in last year’s protest over stagnating wages and dwindling living standards. He promised then to bring more voices into his decision-making but has wound up dictating another overhaul that has created deep unease in France. | The fresh round of social unrest is once again calling into question Mr. Macron’s top-down management style, a big factor in last year’s protest over stagnating wages and dwindling living standards. He promised then to bring more voices into his decision-making but has wound up dictating another overhaul that has created deep unease in France. |
| There is also now concern at the top at the reaction from the street, with one senior official at the Élysée Palace, the French presidency, acknowledging that the pension overhaul had the potential to galvanize disparate parts of the opposition. “Pension reforms create anxiety. It’s not an easy sell,” said the official, who could only be quoted anonymously under French rules. | There is also now concern at the top at the reaction from the street, with one senior official at the Élysée Palace, the French presidency, acknowledging that the pension overhaul had the potential to galvanize disparate parts of the opposition. “Pension reforms create anxiety. It’s not an easy sell,” said the official, who could only be quoted anonymously under French rules. |
| The Yellow Vests say they will join the new protest — unlike the unions, they have been successful at extracting concessions from the government — as will Mr. Macron’s opponents, right and left, and a wide spectrum of unions, though not the centrist French Democratic Confederation of Labor. | The Yellow Vests say they will join the new protest — unlike the unions, they have been successful at extracting concessions from the government — as will Mr. Macron’s opponents, right and left, and a wide spectrum of unions, though not the centrist French Democratic Confederation of Labor. |
| Publicly, government officials have been busy assuring journalists and others that they are not afraid of the strike action, which has come to be called “the Dec. 5 wall.” But the walkout and the underlying social discontent call into question Mr. Macron’s apparent triumph over the Yellow Vest movement, seen up until now as a crucial moment of his reformist presidency. Unions are predicting a huge turnout on Thursday. | Publicly, government officials have been busy assuring journalists and others that they are not afraid of the strike action, which has come to be called “the Dec. 5 wall.” But the walkout and the underlying social discontent call into question Mr. Macron’s apparent triumph over the Yellow Vest movement, seen up until now as a crucial moment of his reformist presidency. Unions are predicting a huge turnout on Thursday. |
| Jean Garrigues, a political historian at the University of Orléans, said, “The victory doesn’t seem to have rehabilitated Macron.” This week’s protest is “the reflection of a crisis in French society, one that can explode at any moment,” he added. “There’s real anxiety over the future.” | Jean Garrigues, a political historian at the University of Orléans, said, “The victory doesn’t seem to have rehabilitated Macron.” This week’s protest is “the reflection of a crisis in French society, one that can explode at any moment,” he added. “There’s real anxiety over the future.” |
| Mr. Macron’s hasty $19 billion check to bolster purchasing power in the form of tax cuts and income supplements for low earners did help tamp down the Yellow Vest demonstrations. | Mr. Macron’s hasty $19 billion check to bolster purchasing power in the form of tax cuts and income supplements for low earners did help tamp down the Yellow Vest demonstrations. |
| But some analysts, like the economist Daniel Cohen of the École Normale Supérieure in Paris, have pointed out that the cash did not settle underlying French social dislocation linked to globalization. The senior Élysée official acknowledged that citizens were in effect saying that they had not seen enough improvement to their daily lives. | But some analysts, like the economist Daniel Cohen of the École Normale Supérieure in Paris, have pointed out that the cash did not settle underlying French social dislocation linked to globalization. The senior Élysée official acknowledged that citizens were in effect saying that they had not seen enough improvement to their daily lives. |
| The strike has been called to protest Mr. Macron’s proposed overhaul of the byzantine French pension system, one of the world’s most complicated and generous, which is currently headed for a deficit of about $19 billion. Some railway workers, for instance, can retire at 52, and average retirement ages are among the lowest in the industrialized world. | The strike has been called to protest Mr. Macron’s proposed overhaul of the byzantine French pension system, one of the world’s most complicated and generous, which is currently headed for a deficit of about $19 billion. Some railway workers, for instance, can retire at 52, and average retirement ages are among the lowest in the industrialized world. |
| The official retirement age is 62, but many retire before. Pensions as a percentage of working-age salaries are among the world’s highest, hovering at around 70 percent, and often even higher for state workers. Retirements tend to be long in France, and public leisure facilities — concerts, museums, theaters — are often full of vigorous retirees with lots of time on their hands. | The official retirement age is 62, but many retire before. Pensions as a percentage of working-age salaries are among the world’s highest, hovering at around 70 percent, and often even higher for state workers. Retirements tend to be long in France, and public leisure facilities — concerts, museums, theaters — are often full of vigorous retirees with lots of time on their hands. |
| The results of this complex system of 42 different pension plans are remarkable: France has among the world’s lowest old-age poverty rates, and average incomes of those over 65 are slightly higher than incomes under that age, a global rarity. | The results of this complex system of 42 different pension plans are remarkable: France has among the world’s lowest old-age poverty rates, and average incomes of those over 65 are slightly higher than incomes under that age, a global rarity. |
| The train workers have their own retirement plan, as do the opera workers, the workers at the Comédie-Française — the national theater company — and the workers at the Port of Bordeaux, among others. Most workers are under the private-sector pension plan, in which the state is also heavily involved. | The train workers have their own retirement plan, as do the opera workers, the workers at the Comédie-Française — the national theater company — and the workers at the Port of Bordeaux, among others. Most workers are under the private-sector pension plan, in which the state is also heavily involved. |
| The French are fiercely protective of their world-beating pension arrangements, and indeed, the government does not dare tinker with the basics: It is not proposing to spend less on pensions or to make people retire later. | The French are fiercely protective of their world-beating pension arrangements, and indeed, the government does not dare tinker with the basics: It is not proposing to spend less on pensions or to make people retire later. |
| Instead, Mr. Macron’s idea is to merge all these disparate systems, public and private, into one state-managed system in which workers accumulate points over the course of a working life and then cash them in. | Instead, Mr. Macron’s idea is to merge all these disparate systems, public and private, into one state-managed system in which workers accumulate points over the course of a working life and then cash them in. |
| His instinct is always to rationalize and he says his system will be fairer, though there are concerns that his changes will mean less for some. | His instinct is always to rationalize and he says his system will be fairer, though there are concerns that his changes will mean less for some. |
| Hervé Boulhol, a pensions specialist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, said that, as things stand, “We’ve got a panorama that’s extremely disparate, with lots of different rules.” Mr. Macron is proposing “a very ambitious reform,” Mr. Boulhol said. “We’re changing the way of calculating pension rights.” | Hervé Boulhol, a pensions specialist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, said that, as things stand, “We’ve got a panorama that’s extremely disparate, with lots of different rules.” Mr. Macron is proposing “a very ambitious reform,” Mr. Boulhol said. “We’re changing the way of calculating pension rights.” |
| But although many in France worship the rational, it is also a country that loves street protest and hates change, particularly in a moment full of fear over globalization and climate change. Previous governments have foundered on the third rail of French politics, the pensions system. | But although many in France worship the rational, it is also a country that loves street protest and hates change, particularly in a moment full of fear over globalization and climate change. Previous governments have foundered on the third rail of French politics, the pensions system. |
| “It’s not right that you do the same work, and your neighbor retires earlier, the calculation is different,” Mr. Macron said at a public meeting in Rodez in central France this fall. “So this has created suspicion in regard to our pension system, so today people find that it is more or less unfair, and more and more, people have doubts about it.” | “It’s not right that you do the same work, and your neighbor retires earlier, the calculation is different,” Mr. Macron said at a public meeting in Rodez in central France this fall. “So this has created suspicion in regard to our pension system, so today people find that it is more or less unfair, and more and more, people have doubts about it.” |
| But they appear to have even more doubts about Mr. Macron’s changes. “The amount of pension, for everybody, is going to go down,” said Benoît Martin, a senior official with the General Confederation of Labor, a left-leaning union that is leading the charge on Thursday. He added, “The number of retirees is going to go up, but they’re not talking about spending more on pensions.” | But they appear to have even more doubts about Mr. Macron’s changes. “The amount of pension, for everybody, is going to go down,” said Benoît Martin, a senior official with the General Confederation of Labor, a left-leaning union that is leading the charge on Thursday. He added, “The number of retirees is going to go up, but they’re not talking about spending more on pensions.” |
| “It’s going to be a lot more haphazard, this way of getting points,” Mr. Martin said. “When there’s periods of little work, the number of points will be low.” | “It’s going to be a lot more haphazard, this way of getting points,” Mr. Martin said. “When there’s periods of little work, the number of points will be low.” |
| None of this is certain. But one of the difficulties with Mr. Macron’s overhaul is its continual state of flux, and the president’s own lack of clarity. At Rodez, Mr. Macron refused to commit to special retirement rules for the police; sure enough, they will be demonstrating on Thursday. | None of this is certain. But one of the difficulties with Mr. Macron’s overhaul is its continual state of flux, and the president’s own lack of clarity. At Rodez, Mr. Macron refused to commit to special retirement rules for the police; sure enough, they will be demonstrating on Thursday. |
| “We don’t know all the details; there’s uncertainty,” said Mr. Boulhol of the O.E.C.D. There was talk, for instance, of raising the retirement age, but a vast outcry killed that idea. | “We don’t know all the details; there’s uncertainty,” said Mr. Boulhol of the O.E.C.D. There was talk, for instance, of raising the retirement age, but a vast outcry killed that idea. |
| And then there has been the government’s uncertain method, which could point to lessons imperfectly learned from the Yellow Vest crisis. | And then there has been the government’s uncertain method, which could point to lessons imperfectly learned from the Yellow Vest crisis. |
| Mr. Macron was “scarred” by those protests, he had a “consciousness-raising,” said Ismaël Emelien, one of the president’s closest advisers until he left the government this year and who is still a source of counsel. | Mr. Macron was “scarred” by those protests, he had a “consciousness-raising,” said Ismaël Emelien, one of the president’s closest advisers until he left the government this year and who is still a source of counsel. |
| Mr. Macron learned that “all change has got to be cultural,” Mr. Emelien said in an interview this fall. “You’ve got to implicate society in these changes. You can’t just stand there and say you are right.” | Mr. Macron learned that “all change has got to be cultural,” Mr. Emelien said in an interview this fall. “You’ve got to implicate society in these changes. You can’t just stand there and say you are right.” |
| The senior Élysée official said: “We have to associate the people. It’s a matter of management and focus.” And so Mr. Macron spent four months traveling France to listen and to lecture, a process that continues fitfully today. | The senior Élysée official said: “We have to associate the people. It’s a matter of management and focus.” And so Mr. Macron spent four months traveling France to listen and to lecture, a process that continues fitfully today. |
| But in the end, the pensions overhaul has been served up like so many of its predecessors, under the French top-down system: from the professed smart folk at the Élysée Palace. There has so far been no debate in Parliament. Mr. Macron has convened endless meetings with unions, but those discussions have not made the lines move. | But in the end, the pensions overhaul has been served up like so many of its predecessors, under the French top-down system: from the professed smart folk at the Élysée Palace. There has so far been no debate in Parliament. Mr. Macron has convened endless meetings with unions, but those discussions have not made the lines move. |
| “We have the impression that these meetings were not really a negotiation,” said Mr. Garrigues, the political historian. “The positions remained fixed. And the responsibility for this immobility belongs to an executive too used to top-down. Maybe that’s the personality of Emmanuel Macron.” | “We have the impression that these meetings were not really a negotiation,” said Mr. Garrigues, the political historian. “The positions remained fixed. And the responsibility for this immobility belongs to an executive too used to top-down. Maybe that’s the personality of Emmanuel Macron.” |