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US election 2020: Five charts on the Democratic race to take on Trump US election 2020: Five charts on the Democratic race to take on Trump
(1 day later)
Voters have begun the process of choosing which Democratic candidate will go up against Donald Trump on 3 November. But who is leading the pack?Voters have begun the process of choosing which Democratic candidate will go up against Donald Trump on 3 November. But who is leading the pack?
Joe Biden was the frontrunner throughout last year, but lacklustre fundraising and a poor showing in both Iowa and New Hampshire have dented his popularity. Joe Biden was the frontrunner throughout last year, but Bernie Sanders recently overtook him in the polls and Pete Buttigieg did surprisingly well in the first two states.
Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg are the men to beat at the moment, although the latter is expected to do less well in the next couple of contests. And shooting up - even though not in the next two races - is billionaire Michael Bloomberg. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg has also steamrolled his way into the race, splashing his cash on a huge advertising campaign despite not standing in February's contests.
We've taken an in-depth look at the polls, the fundraising numbers and a few other things that can help shed some light on the current state of play.We've taken an in-depth look at the polls, the fundraising numbers and a few other things that can help shed some light on the current state of play.
There were nearly 30 Democrats running just a few months ago, but the field has narrowed to just 11 candidates now - and only a handful of them have a real shot at winning. There were nearly 30 Democrats running just a few months ago, but the field has narrowed to just eight candidates now.
No consensus after first resultsNo consensus after first results
Only twice since 1976 has the Democrat who won the Iowa caucuses not gone on to become the party's presidential nominee, so the state usually offers a clue as to how the race is shaping up.Only twice since 1976 has the Democrat who won the Iowa caucuses not gone on to become the party's presidential nominee, so the state usually offers a clue as to how the race is shaping up.
This time, however, just 0.1% separated the top two candidates - Democratic socialist Bernie Sanders and moderate millennial Pete Buttigieg (it's pronounced boot-edge-edge, by the way).This time, however, just 0.1% separated the top two candidates - Democratic socialist Bernie Sanders and moderate millennial Pete Buttigieg (it's pronounced boot-edge-edge, by the way).
Sanders did top the bill in New Hampshire, but it was by a much finer margin than he would have been hoping for - especially since he got 60% of the vote against Hillary Clinton in 2016, albeit in a far less crowded field. Sanders did top the bill in New Hampshire, but it was nowhere near the 60% he won against Hillary Clinton in 2016, albeit in a far less crowded field.
The results mean that Buttigieg has a small lead in the measure that matters - national delegates - but less than 2% of the 3,979 delegates on offer have been awarded so far.The results mean that Buttigieg has a small lead in the measure that matters - national delegates - but less than 2% of the 3,979 delegates on offer have been awarded so far.
To put that into context, 34% of delegates will be awarded on Super Tuesday when 14 states hold their nominating contests on 3 March.To put that into context, 34% of delegates will be awarded on Super Tuesday when 14 states hold their nominating contests on 3 March.
Biden no longer flying highBiden no longer flying high
If you look at the national polls, there was a clear top tier of candidates in 2019: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.If you look at the national polls, there was a clear top tier of candidates in 2019: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Biden's lead was pretty steady throughout the year, hovering between 25-35% apart from a short jump to 40% after he officially announced his candidacy last April. Warren very briefly overtook him in October, but her numbers dropped after that. Biden's lead was pretty steady throughout the year, hovering between 25-35% apart from a short jump to 40% after he officially announced his candidacy last April.
Warren very briefly overtook him in October, but her numbers dropped after that.
Since voting began, however, it's become clear that Bernie Sanders is the one with the momentum.Since voting began, however, it's become clear that Bernie Sanders is the one with the momentum.
His numbers were on an upward trajectory even before Iowa, suggesting that a very public disagreement between him and Warren about whether he did or didn't say a woman could not win the presidency did not hurt his support. His numbers were on an upward trajectory even before Iowa, despite a very public disagreement between him and Warren about whether he said a woman couldn't win the presidency.
One other notable thing is how quickly Michael Bloomberg has risen. The billionaire only joined the race in November, but he is well positioned to gain if Biden continues to lose support.One other notable thing is how quickly Michael Bloomberg has risen. The billionaire only joined the race in November, but he is well positioned to gain if Biden continues to lose support.
Turbulent few weeks aheadTurbulent few weeks ahead
If you look at the chart below, it shows the latest polling averages for candidates in four states that vote in the next couple of weeks - Nevada, South Carolina, California and Texas.If you look at the chart below, it shows the latest polling averages for candidates in four states that vote in the next couple of weeks - Nevada, South Carolina, California and Texas.
Of those four contests, Bernie Sanders is ahead in two. Joe Biden remains in front in the other two, but his numbers have been falling as other moderate candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar chip away at his support. Bernie Sanders is now ahead in three of them after Joe Biden lost his lead in Texas. The former vice president remains ahead in South Carolina, but Sanders has narrowed the gap.
That split in the moderate vote looks set to benefit Sanders unless one or two of them drop out of the race. One of the reasons Biden is seeing his numbers fall is because other moderate candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are continuing to chip away at his support.
Michael Bloomberg, meanwhile, doesn't feature in the next two states as he's chosen to focus on Super Tuesday states, including California and Texas. Polling suggests he's looking increasingly competitive in both. That split in the moderate vote looks set to benefit Sanders unless one or two of them drop out of the race soon.
Hedge-fund billionaire Tom Steyer has double-digit support in the next two contests, but he looks unlikely to challenge the top tier candidates too much in the race ahead. Michael Bloomberg, meanwhile, doesn't feature in the next two states as he's chosen to focus on Super Tuesday states, including California and Texas. Polling suggests he's looking fairly competitive in both.
Hedge-fund billionaire Tom Steyer has double-digit support in the next two contests, where he has concentrated his ad campaign, but he looks unlikely to build much more support in the race ahead.
Sanders campaign in good shapeSanders campaign in good shape
The amount a candidate raises is no firm sign of their eventual success - Jeb Bush, for example, led the Republican money race in 2016, but was still beaten by Donald Trump.The amount a candidate raises is no firm sign of their eventual success - Jeb Bush, for example, led the Republican money race in 2016, but was still beaten by Donald Trump.
It is, however, a useful guide to how much enthusiasm there is for their candidacy and in Bernie Sanders' case, there is still an awful lot of energy behind him.It is, however, a useful guide to how much enthusiasm there is for their candidacy and in Bernie Sanders' case, there is still an awful lot of energy behind him.
As the chart above shows, he raised the most money from individual donors last year, and his $34.4m haul in the fourth quarter was the highest quarterly total of any candidate. Joe Biden, by comparison, raised $23.2m. As the chart below shows, he raised the most money from individual donors in January, with his $25.1m haul more than double the amount brought in by his nearest rival, Elizabeth Warren.
Much of Sanders' power comes from the network of supporters he built during his battle with Hillary Clinton in 2016. A detailed analysis by the New York Times showed that network stretched right across the US - whereas most candidates get the majority of their support from the areas they have represented. Much of Sanders' power comes from the network of supporters he built during his battle with Hillary Clinton in 2016. A detailed analysis by the New York Times found the network stretched across the US - whereas most candidates get the majority of their support from the areas they have represented.
The other thing to note is just how well Pete Buttigieg has done up to now. He raised $76m last year, $5m more than Elizabeth Warren and over $15m more than Joe Biden - although the former vice-president entered the race after the first quarter. Now we're in an election year, candidates and their campaigns have to file monthly reports on their finances to the Federal Election Commission, so we'll continue to get a detailed look at their numbers.
One other thing to note from January's numbers is that a lot of the candidates ended the month with a worryingly low bank balance.
Elizabeth Warren, for example, spent more than double what she raised and her campaign was forced to take out a $3m loan. They did, however, have their best fundraising day ever after Warren's fiery performance in the Nevada debate.
Can Bloomberg's cash change the dynamic?Can Bloomberg's cash change the dynamic?
Michael Bloomberg is not accepting donations to his campaign - hence why he's at the bottom on $0 in the chart above - but that isn't affecting his spending power. One candidate who isn't struggling for money is Michael Bloomberg.
The former New York mayor is not accepting donations to his campaign - hence why he's at the bottom on $0 in the chart above - but that isn't affecting his spending power.
Along with Tom Steyer, the other billionaire in the race, he has spent huge sums of money on an advertising campaign that included a 60-second ad during the Super Bowl that reportedly cost around $10 million.Along with Tom Steyer, the other billionaire in the race, he has spent huge sums of money on an advertising campaign that included a 60-second ad during the Super Bowl that reportedly cost around $10 million.
The bad news for Joe Biden is that both men are targeting his supporters and not those of Bernie Sanders. There are signs the Bloomberg campaign is having some success, most notably his climb in the national polls, but his poor performance in the Nevada debate may have hurt his prospects.
There are signs the Bloomberg campaign is having some success, most notably his climb in the national polls mentioned above, but it's still hard to imagine him winning enough delegates to become the Democratic nominee. Even if he does well on Super Tuesday, it's hard to imagine him winning enough delegates to become the Democratic nominee.
If, however, we get to July and there is still no clear winner, there would be a "contested" convention where "superdelegates" could break the deadlock. Many of these delegates are senior party officials past and present and they may look kindly on a centrist candidate like Bloomberg who has donated millions to the Democratic Party in the past. If, however, we get to July and there is still no clear winner, there would be a "contested" convention where "superdelegates" could break the deadlock.
Many of these delegates are senior party officials past and present and may look kindly on a moderate candidate like Bloomberg who has donated millions to the Democratic Party in the past.
The party convention is a long way off yet though.The party convention is a long way off yet though.