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US election 2020: Five charts on the Democratic race to take on Trump US election 2020: Five charts on the Democratic race to take on Trump
(30 days later)
With less than a year to go until election day, we look at who is winning the race to be the Democratic nominee for US president. Voters have begun the process of choosing which Democratic candidate will go up against Donald Trump on 3 November. But who is leading the pack?
Joe Biden has been the frontrunner from the off, but in recent months his lead in early voting states has faded. Joe Biden remains the frontrunner in national polls but lacklustre fundraising and a fourth place finish in the Iowa caucus suggest his star is fading.
The most recent fundraising figures suggest the former vice-president is also struggling to raise money, pointing to a race that is far from over. Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, are on the up after finishing in a virtual tie in Iowa and topping polls in New Hampshire, the next state in the primary process.
We've taken an in-depth look at those fundraising numbers, how the national polls are shaping up and what effect the debates have had. We've taken an in-depth look at the polls, the fundraising numbers and a few other things that can help shed some light on the current state of play.
While there are still 15 noteworthy Democrats in the race (you can see them all here), we've focused on the candidates that took part in last month's debate - minus Kamala Harris, who dropped out earlier this month. There were nearly 30 Democrats running just a few months ago, but the field has narrowed to just 11 candidates now - and only a handful of them have a real shot at winning.
At the moment, those candidates are roughly split into three tiers: No consensus amid Iowa chaos
1) Joe Biden alongside two well-known senators, Vermont's Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Only twice since 1976 has the Democrat who won the Iowa caucuses not gone on to become the party's presidential nominee, so the state usually offers a clue as to how the race is shaping up.
2) Pete Buttigieg, the young, gay mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and billionaire former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. This time, however, just 0.1% separated the top two candidates - Democratic socialist Bernie Sanders and moderate millennial Pete Buttigieg (it's pronounced boot-edge-edge, by the way).
3) And the rest: tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang, senators Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota and Cory Booker from New Jersey, Hawaii congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, former Texas mayor Julian Castro, and hedge-fund billionaire Tom Steyer. The results in Iowa took several days to emerge, with party officials blaming the delay on a coding error in an app that was being used for the first time to report the votes.
When you look at the national polling numbers in the chart below, it's easy to see how Biden's lead was reduced over the summer - but his support has remained steady since then. Even now, there are questions over the validity of the results with The Associated Press, a news organisation that traditionally verifies election results, yet to declare a winner.
Warren briefly led in October, but her numbers have fallen in recent weeks. Biden ahead nationally - but for how long?
Bernie Sanders remains a heavyweight contender and has hovered between 15-20% since the start of the year. Remarkably, his numbers were barely affected by news that he suffered a heart attack in early October. If you look at the national polls, there is a clear top tier of candidates: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Buttigieg saw an early boost after a cable news town hall forum in March and has largely held on to the support he gained. Yang, meanwhile, has been slowly building support throughout the year. Biden's lead was pretty steady throughout 2019, hovering between 25-35% apart from a short jump to 40% after he officially announced his candidacy last April. Warren very briefly overtook him in October, but her numbers dropped after that and she soon fell back behind Sanders.
Bloomberg made a late entrance into the race, officially announcing in November, meaning he is yet to qualify for a debate - but his poll numbers suggest he may do so in the new year. We don't have much data to go on yet when it comes to assessing how the Iowa results have changed things, but it does appear as if Sanders is the one with the momentum at the moment.
The other candidates have failed to get much traction and could well drop out before the end of the year. His numbers were on an upward trajectory even before Iowa, suggesting that a very public disagreement between him and Warren about whether he did or didn't say a woman could not win the presidency hasn't hindered his chances.
Bernie still the main money man One other notable thing is how quickly Michael Bloomberg has risen. The billionaire only joined the race in November, but he is well positioned to gain if Biden continues to lose support.
Turbulent few weeks ahead
If you look at the chart below, it shows the latest average for candidates in five states that vote in the next month - New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, California and Texas.
Of those five contests, Joe Biden leads in three and Bernie Sanders is ahead in two.
Elizabeth Warren's best hope is in California, where she is currently second in the polls, but she's a long way off the top in the other states at the moment.
Michael Bloomberg doesn't feature in the next three states as he's chosen to focus on Super Tuesday on 3 March, when more than a dozen states, including California and Texas, cast their votes - but even there, his current numbers are low.
Pete Buttigieg, meanwhile, looks set to give Bernie Sanders a fight in New Hampshire after the bounce from his performance in Iowa. But unless he gets a surprise victory there and receives another bounce, it looks unlikely that he'll have a shot in the other four states.
Of the others, only hedge-fund billionaire Tom Steyer is showing any sign of challenging the top tier candidates, sitting in second place in South Carolina and fourth in Nevada.
Sanders campaign in good shape
The amount a candidate raises is no firm sign of their eventual success - Jeb Bush, for example, led the Republican money race in 2016, but was still beaten by Donald Trump.The amount a candidate raises is no firm sign of their eventual success - Jeb Bush, for example, led the Republican money race in 2016, but was still beaten by Donald Trump.
It is, however, a useful guide to how much enthusiasm there is for their candidacy and in Bernie Sanders' case, there is still an awful lot of energy behind him.It is, however, a useful guide to how much enthusiasm there is for their candidacy and in Bernie Sanders' case, there is still an awful lot of energy behind him.
As the chart above shows, he's raised the most money from individual donors since the start of the year, and his $25.2m haul in the third quarter was the highest quarterly total of any 2020 candidate. Joe Biden, by comparison, raised $15.7m. As the chart above shows, he raised the most money from individual donors last year, and his $34.4m haul in the fourth quarter was the highest quarterly total of any candidate. Joe Biden, by comparison, raised $23.2m.
Much of Sanders' power comes from the network of supporters he built during his battle with Hillary Clinton in 2016. A detailed analysis by the New York Times earlier this year showed that network stretched right across the US - whereas most candidates get the majority of their support from the states they represent. Much of Sanders' power comes from the network of supporters he built during his battle with Hillary Clinton in 2016. A detailed analysis by the New York Times showed that network stretched right across the US - whereas most candidates get the majority of their support from the areas they have represented.
The other thing to note is just how well Pete Buttigieg has done. He's raised $51.4m so far, $1.6m more than Elizabeth Warren and over $10m more than Joe Biden - although the former vice-president entered the race after the first quarter. The other thing to note is just how well Pete Buttigieg has done up to now. He raised $76m last year, $5m more than Elizabeth Warren and over $15m more than Joe Biden - although the former vice-president entered the race after the first quarter.
Yang Gang keeping their man in the race Can Bloomberg's cash change the dynamic?
Pete Buttigieg has been the unlikely star of the race so far, but relatively unknown entrepreneur Andrew Yang has also exceeded expectations. Michael Bloomberg is not accepting donations to his campaign - hence why he's at the bottom on $0 in the chart above - but that isn't affecting his spending power.
He's qualified for all of the debates and kept pace financially with experienced senators like Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker. In fact, in the third quarter he raised nearly as much as both of them combined. Along with Tom Steyer, the other billionaire in the race, he has spent huge sums of money on an advertising campaign that included a 60-second ad during the Super Bowl that reportedly cost around $10 million.
As the chart below shows, it is small donors (those giving less than $200) that are powering his campaign - mostly fuelled by a devoted internet following known as the "Yang Gang". He'll need that gang to grow offline if he wants to keep his campaign going in 2020 though. The bad news for Joe Biden is that both men are targeting his supporters and not those of Bernie Sanders.
Both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren's campaigns have been boosted by small donors, but the proportion is smaller because they've also transferred funds over from their Senate campaign accounts. There are signs the Bloomberg campaign is having some success, most notably his climb in the national polls mentioned above, but it's still hard to imagine him winning enough delegates to become the Democratic nominee.
The other main takeaway is that Tom Steyer is going it alone. He raised just $2m from individual donors but invested $46.7m of his own money in his campaign. Remember, he's the hedge-fund billionaire. If, however, we get to July and there is still no clear winner, there would be a "contested" convention where "superdelegates" could break the deadlock. Many of these delegates are senior party officials past and present and they may look kindly on a centrist candidate like Bloomberg who has donated millions to the Democratic Party in the past.
He has a few friends in the Democratic Party, having spent $100m to support its candidates in last year's mid-term elections, but his path to the presidency is unclear at best. The party convention is a long way off yet though.
We're yet to see fundraising numbers from Bloomberg, but we know he's already outspending most of his rivals on advertising so we can expect his campaign to be well funded.
Meanwhile, Trump's war chest is still growing
While Democrats have been facing off with one another, President Trump's campaign has built up a reserve of $83.2m - more than the combined total of the three closest Democrats.
That's thanks to a record-breaking third quarter for his campaign and the Republican National Committee, who raised a joint $125m - much more than the $70m raised by Barack Obama and the Democratic National Committee at the same point in 2011.
A worrying sign for Joe Biden is that he finished the third quarter with just $9m in the bank, a paltry amount for a frontrunner who is facing some strong opposition.
In a stark contrast, his closest competitors - Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg - all went into the fourth quarter of 2019 with very healthy looking balance sheets.
Warren under pressure
In October's debate, Elizabeth Warren had taken fire from several of her rivals about how she would pay for her universal healthcare plan. She ended up speaking for five minutes more than any of the others as she tried to fight off their attack lines.
Shortly after that, she offered details on the funding of her plan and that seemed to take the pressure off her a little in November's debate, when most of the leading Democrats spoke for about the same amount of time.
But her numbers in the early voting states have taken a tumble, with some college-educated voters appearing to desert her for Pete Buttigieg's camp.
Most of the Democrats on the stage are experienced politicians who are used to holding their own in a debate - but both Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang have struggled to make an impact so far.
Both will be looking for a better performance in December's debate, when they will be joined by Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. Cory Booker and Tulsi Gabbard both failed to qualify this time around.
So where does the race go from here?
As the end of the 2019 nears, the focus starts to shift from fundraising and debates to voting.
The voting begins in February, when Democratic supporters in Iowa will be the first to take part in a series of electoral contests known as primaries and caucuses.
These take place over several months, with the party's nominee being crowned at the national convention in July.
At the moment, polling in the states that vote first - Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina - point to a very open race. In Iowa for example, Buttigieg leads on 22.5% but is closely followed by Sanders on 19%, Biden on 18% and Warren on 16%.
Here are the key dates in the run-up to election day:
2019
2020