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Macron Steps Into a Leadership Vacuum in Europe, and on Some Toes Macron Steps Into a Leadership Vacuum in Europe, and on Some Toes
(30 minutes later)
BRUSSELS — The German government is paralyzed, stuck in a divided “zombie” coalition unable to act and unwilling to die. The Italian government is an accident, another clumsy coalition built in fear of populism. The Spanish are about to have their fourth election in four years. And Britain’s navel-gazing continues more than three and a half years after it voted to leave the European Union.BRUSSELS — The German government is paralyzed, stuck in a divided “zombie” coalition unable to act and unwilling to die. The Italian government is an accident, another clumsy coalition built in fear of populism. The Spanish are about to have their fourth election in four years. And Britain’s navel-gazing continues more than three and a half years after it voted to leave the European Union.
Into the vacuum, inevitably, has stepped France and its energetic young president, Emmanuel Macron. But Mr. Macron, who loves to talk and spin off ideas no matter the follow-through, has overstepped himself lately, European officials, diplomats and analysts say. Into the vacuum, inevitably, has stepped France and its energetic 41-year-old president, Emmanuel Macron. But Mr. Macron, who loves to talk and spin off ideas no matter the follow-through, has overstepped himself lately, European officials, diplomats and analysts say.
He has annoyed his European colleagues, on whom he must depend to see his suggestions made policy, and has created a backlash among some member states and in the European Parliament.He has annoyed his European colleagues, on whom he must depend to see his suggestions made policy, and has created a backlash among some member states and in the European Parliament.
The most recent examples of Mr. Macron’s overreach have involved the difficult questions of European personnel, enlargement, Brexit and relations with Russia. In each case, and most tellingly in his veto of accession talks for North Macedonia, he has acted after little or no consultation among other leaders, vexing the rest.The most recent examples of Mr. Macron’s overreach have involved the difficult questions of European personnel, enlargement, Brexit and relations with Russia. In each case, and most tellingly in his veto of accession talks for North Macedonia, he has acted after little or no consultation among other leaders, vexing the rest.
Northern European officials say they are concerned that given the absence of Britain and the weakness of Germany, France is pushing too hard for its concept of European integration and a stronger European defense that can act independently of the United States.Northern European officials say they are concerned that given the absence of Britain and the weakness of Germany, France is pushing too hard for its concept of European integration and a stronger European defense that can act independently of the United States.
The fragmented European Parliament has rejected Mr. Macron’s handpicked commissioner for a grand French-designed job combining industrial and defense policy, Sylvie Goulard, in retaliation for Mr. Macron’s dismissal of the Parliament’s preferred path to a European Commission president.The fragmented European Parliament has rejected Mr. Macron’s handpicked commissioner for a grand French-designed job combining industrial and defense policy, Sylvie Goulard, in retaliation for Mr. Macron’s dismissal of the Parliament’s preferred path to a European Commission president.
Instead of accepting the choice of the group that won the most votes in this year’s European Parliament elections, Mr. Macron fathered a deal that gave the position to the French-speaking former German defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen, who had never even been considered as a candidate.Instead of accepting the choice of the group that won the most votes in this year’s European Parliament elections, Mr. Macron fathered a deal that gave the position to the French-speaking former German defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen, who had never even been considered as a candidate.
“The French think that they can act unilaterally without talking to everyone and get away with it, because they have a dynamic young leader with power and no one else does,” said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a research institute.“The French think that they can act unilaterally without talking to everyone and get away with it, because they have a dynamic young leader with power and no one else does,” said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a research institute.
The rejection of Ms. Goulard, herself a former European legislator, “is a reminder to Macron not to get too above himself,’’ he said.The rejection of Ms. Goulard, herself a former European legislator, “is a reminder to Macron not to get too above himself,’’ he said.
France has always seen itself as the policy leader of the European Union, noted Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House.France has always seen itself as the policy leader of the European Union, noted Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House.
“Now with Britain distracted, Germany undergoing a protracted leadership transition, the U.S. undependable, it’s inevitable that France, with a clear foreign policy and aims, would argue that Europeans need to recalibrate their self-interest and act upon it,” Mr. Niblett said.“Now with Britain distracted, Germany undergoing a protracted leadership transition, the U.S. undependable, it’s inevitable that France, with a clear foreign policy and aims, would argue that Europeans need to recalibrate their self-interest and act upon it,” Mr. Niblett said.
“The problem is that since everyone else is weaker, people worry about being bulldozed, since Germany is not acting as a counterweight and Britain is out,” Mr. Niblett said. But Mr. Macron, he added, “is acting with too heavy a hand.”“The problem is that since everyone else is weaker, people worry about being bulldozed, since Germany is not acting as a counterweight and Britain is out,” Mr. Niblett said. But Mr. Macron, he added, “is acting with too heavy a hand.”
In some ways, through arrogance and ambition, Mr. Macron has made it harder for France to take the leadership role in Brussels that the circumstances may demand.In some ways, through arrogance and ambition, Mr. Macron has made it harder for France to take the leadership role in Brussels that the circumstances may demand.
With external challenges from China, Russia, the United States, combined with internal ones over migration, rule of law, enlargement and its next seven-year budget, the European Union seems stuck. Even a new commission — a top team for the bloc’s executive arm — has been delayed in taking office by internal conflicts.With external challenges from China, Russia, the United States, combined with internal ones over migration, rule of law, enlargement and its next seven-year budget, the European Union seems stuck. Even a new commission — a top team for the bloc’s executive arm — has been delayed in taking office by internal conflicts.
On North Macedonia, Mr. Macron was isolated among the 28 member states in vetoing the start of accession talks, a shock to a small country that had done everything Brussels has asked of it, including changing its name to satisfy the Greeks.On North Macedonia, Mr. Macron was isolated among the 28 member states in vetoing the start of accession talks, a shock to a small country that had done everything Brussels has asked of it, including changing its name to satisfy the Greeks.
But Mr. Macron suddenly argued that the entire enlargement procedure should be reviewed, calling it “bizarre.”But Mr. Macron suddenly argued that the entire enlargement procedure should be reviewed, calling it “bizarre.”
Given the persisting problems of Romania and Bulgaria, which joined the bloc in 2007 but still struggle with corruption, a rethink is not a mad idea.Given the persisting problems of Romania and Bulgaria, which joined the bloc in 2007 but still struggle with corruption, a rethink is not a mad idea.
But Mr. Macron’s veto is regarded by many analysts, like the French defense expert François Heisbourg, as a political move to shore up his position against France’s far-right party before the next presidential elections in 2022.But Mr. Macron’s veto is regarded by many analysts, like the French defense expert François Heisbourg, as a political move to shore up his position against France’s far-right party before the next presidential elections in 2022.
In North Macedonia, the government of Prime Minister Zoran Zaev has now collapsed, and the European Union’s continued enlargement is in question.In North Macedonia, the government of Prime Minister Zoran Zaev has now collapsed, and the European Union’s continued enlargement is in question.
The wider result has been to further destabilize the Western Balkans, a hole in the European Union where Russia and China have been meddling.The wider result has been to further destabilize the Western Balkans, a hole in the European Union where Russia and China have been meddling.
Anna Wieslander, director of Northern Europe for the Atlantic Council, sees troubling unilateralism from France, especially toward Moscow.Anna Wieslander, director of Northern Europe for the Atlantic Council, sees troubling unilateralism from France, especially toward Moscow.
Since June, she noted, Mr. Macron has let Russia back into the Council of Europe, opened a new strategic dialogue, called for Russia to be invited back into the Group of 7, and called for “a new architecture of trust and security with Russia.”Since June, she noted, Mr. Macron has let Russia back into the Council of Europe, opened a new strategic dialogue, called for Russia to be invited back into the Group of 7, and called for “a new architecture of trust and security with Russia.”
Then came Mr. Macron’s veto, “signaling that we don’t care about enlargement,” Ms. Wieslander said.Then came Mr. Macron’s veto, “signaling that we don’t care about enlargement,” Ms. Wieslander said.
One reason may be Mr. Macron’s domestic political concerns, “but geopolitically, you can’t look at the Western Balkans and not realize that there’s a battle going on,” she said. “So either France doesn’t see it or finds it acceptable.”One reason may be Mr. Macron’s domestic political concerns, “but geopolitically, you can’t look at the Western Balkans and not realize that there’s a battle going on,” she said. “So either France doesn’t see it or finds it acceptable.”
French officials speak of trying to pull Russia away from its growing embrace of, or vassalage to, China; of trying to revive the stalled Minsk diplomatic process on Ukraine; of trying to get Russia to help Europe keep the 2015 Iran nuclear deal going, and even to entice President Trump to restart negotiations with Tehran.French officials speak of trying to pull Russia away from its growing embrace of, or vassalage to, China; of trying to revive the stalled Minsk diplomatic process on Ukraine; of trying to get Russia to help Europe keep the 2015 Iran nuclear deal going, and even to entice President Trump to restart negotiations with Tehran.
But on Russia, too, Mr. Macron’s efforts have produced little. “It doesn’t smell good, but policy hasn’t really changed,” Mr. Heisbourg said.But on Russia, too, Mr. Macron’s efforts have produced little. “It doesn’t smell good, but policy hasn’t really changed,” Mr. Heisbourg said.
The vacuum at the heart of Europe begins with Berlin, diplomats and analysts say. Chancellor Angela Merkel has made herself a lame duck, having announced last year that she will not run again when her term ends in 2021.The vacuum at the heart of Europe begins with Berlin, diplomats and analysts say. Chancellor Angela Merkel has made herself a lame duck, having announced last year that she will not run again when her term ends in 2021.
Her authority waning, she presides over a stagnant coalition. Yet neither her Christian Democrats nor their partners, the Social Democrats, dare call an early election, fearful of the rise of the Greens on the left and the Alternative for Germany on the right.Her authority waning, she presides over a stagnant coalition. Yet neither her Christian Democrats nor their partners, the Social Democrats, dare call an early election, fearful of the rise of the Greens on the left and the Alternative for Germany on the right.
“Germany is now a complete void in everything,” said Norbert Röttgen, chairman of the German Parliament’s foreign relations committee and a member of Ms. Merkel’s party. “I can’t see a European policy, the foreign minister is a void, the chancellor knows everything but does nothing,” he said. “There is a breakdown of competence and energy.”“Germany is now a complete void in everything,” said Norbert Röttgen, chairman of the German Parliament’s foreign relations committee and a member of Ms. Merkel’s party. “I can’t see a European policy, the foreign minister is a void, the chancellor knows everything but does nothing,” he said. “There is a breakdown of competence and energy.”
The result is “a shift in the balance of power in Europe,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.The result is “a shift in the balance of power in Europe,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“As the euro crisis and refugee crisis subsided, Germany became much less central to the running of the European Union,” he said.“As the euro crisis and refugee crisis subsided, Germany became much less central to the running of the European Union,” he said.
After waiting for support from Ms. Merkel for his reform plans in his first year, “now Macron’s not waiting for Germany or hiding from conflict with Berlin,” Mr. Leonard added.After waiting for support from Ms. Merkel for his reform plans in his first year, “now Macron’s not waiting for Germany or hiding from conflict with Berlin,” Mr. Leonard added.
Not everyone is happy about it.Not everyone is happy about it.
“There’s a lot of anxiety among Nordic and northern European countries content with German leadership, who are now having to work out a different approach to the E.U.,” Mr. Leonard noted. “And the Central Europeans see Macron as their biggest ideological critic.”“There’s a lot of anxiety among Nordic and northern European countries content with German leadership, who are now having to work out a different approach to the E.U.,” Mr. Leonard noted. “And the Central Europeans see Macron as their biggest ideological critic.”
On Brexit, too, Mr. Macron has been alone in pushing for a shorter extension to the deadline for Britain’s departure than the one requested by London, and accepted by other European Union members.On Brexit, too, Mr. Macron has been alone in pushing for a shorter extension to the deadline for Britain’s departure than the one requested by London, and accepted by other European Union members.
The French position has been consistent, wanting a clear reason from London for a longer extension, but Mr. Macron has annoyed his colleagues by complicating a simple decision and seeming to grandstand before giving in to the consensus. Even last March, when other leaders wanted to give Britain until the end of March 2020 as an extension, Mr. Macron argued for a much shorter one and compromised on Oct. 31 — a deadline that has now been extended again.The French position has been consistent, wanting a clear reason from London for a longer extension, but Mr. Macron has annoyed his colleagues by complicating a simple decision and seeming to grandstand before giving in to the consensus. Even last March, when other leaders wanted to give Britain until the end of March 2020 as an extension, Mr. Macron argued for a much shorter one and compromised on Oct. 31 — a deadline that has now been extended again.
Mr. Macron’s effort to push the line on Brexit is indicative of a man in a hurry, less willing to wait for others, suggested Josef Janning, who runs the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The drag that Brexit places on European matters will constitute precious time lost” for Mr. Macron, he said.Mr. Macron’s effort to push the line on Brexit is indicative of a man in a hurry, less willing to wait for others, suggested Josef Janning, who runs the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The drag that Brexit places on European matters will constitute precious time lost” for Mr. Macron, he said.
For Merkel, by contrast, he added, “It is likely valuable time won — time to show that Europe is still standing, time to cool the tempers of nationalists in E.U. governments, time to wait for a better moment to make progress on integration.”For Merkel, by contrast, he added, “It is likely valuable time won — time to show that Europe is still standing, time to cool the tempers of nationalists in E.U. governments, time to wait for a better moment to make progress on integration.”