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Are German Social Democrats Doomed? Are German Social Democrats Doomed?
(4 days later)
On a Tuesday night in September, hundreds of German Social Democrats streamed past a statue of Chancellor Willy Brandt, who led the country in the 1960s and ’70s, into the party’s headquarters in Berlin. The bronze statue of Brandt, who headed the party from 1964 to 1987, holds one arm out wide, as if offering protection to his fellow party members.On a Tuesday night in September, hundreds of German Social Democrats streamed past a statue of Chancellor Willy Brandt, who led the country in the 1960s and ’70s, into the party’s headquarters in Berlin. The bronze statue of Brandt, who headed the party from 1964 to 1987, holds one arm out wide, as if offering protection to his fellow party members.
The crowd settled into the main auditorium, and soon after seven pairs of people, a man and a woman each, strode onstage. “Enter the gladiators,” whispered someone near me. Each pair is running to become the party’s next leadership team — the role once held by Brandt alone has been split in two.The crowd settled into the main auditorium, and soon after seven pairs of people, a man and a woman each, strode onstage. “Enter the gladiators,” whispered someone near me. Each pair is running to become the party’s next leadership team — the role once held by Brandt alone has been split in two.
“We want to make this party the party of labor again,” says one candidate. “The Social Democrats have to be the party of hope,” says another. Another declares: “We need to leave the Grand Coalition,” the governing coalition between the Social Democrats and Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats.“We want to make this party the party of labor again,” says one candidate. “The Social Democrats have to be the party of hope,” says another. Another declares: “We need to leave the Grand Coalition,” the governing coalition between the Social Democrats and Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats.
Despite the energy in the room that night, it’s not a good time to be member of the Social Democratic Party, known for short in German as the SPD. The party’s previous leader, Andrea Nahles, stepped down in June after only about a year in office. The SPD had just seen yet another major defeat in the European election. In the last federal election, in 2017, the SPD won 20 percent of the vote, down from 34 in the mid-2000s and 40 percent in 1998. Today it is down to about 15 percent in polls. Once the dominant voice of the German left, it is now regularly outpolled by the Greens, especially among younger voters. Despite the energy in the room that night, it’s not a good time to be a member of the Social Democratic Party, known for short in German as the SPD. The party’s previous leader, Andrea Nahles, stepped down in June after only about a year in office. The SPD had just seen yet another major defeat in the European election. In the last federal election, in 2017, the SPD won 20 percent of the vote, down from 34 in the mid-2000s and 40 percent in 1998. Today it is down to about 15 percent in polls. Once the dominant voice of the German left, it is now regularly outpolled by the Greens, especially among younger voters.
When Ms. Nahles stepped down, the remaining leadership declared that her successor would be chosen not by the usual backroom dealings, but by a primary, open to all members, presented in a nationwide roadshow, including the September presentation in Berlin and culminating in a vote concluding this Friday.When Ms. Nahles stepped down, the remaining leadership declared that her successor would be chosen not by the usual backroom dealings, but by a primary, open to all members, presented in a nationwide roadshow, including the September presentation in Berlin and culminating in a vote concluding this Friday.
On Saturday, the party will reveal the results of that vote; a convention of elected delegates will still have the final say (as prescribed in German law), but it will hard, politically, to override the will of the base. On Saturday, the party will reveal the results of that vote; a convention of elected delegates will still have the final say (as prescribed in German law), but it will be hard, politically, to override the will of the base.
The vote has become a battle between the base and the party establishment — but also a battle over whether to stay in the governing coalition. Many rank-and-file members see the compromises that the party made to stay in power as a primary reason for its decline. If a team of “leave” candidates wins the primary, the coalition may collapse, and Germany may face a snap election next year — or a minority government.The vote has become a battle between the base and the party establishment — but also a battle over whether to stay in the governing coalition. Many rank-and-file members see the compromises that the party made to stay in power as a primary reason for its decline. If a team of “leave” candidates wins the primary, the coalition may collapse, and Germany may face a snap election next year — or a minority government.
For these slates especially, the SPD vote is an epochal moment in party history. Christina Kampmann, 39, a member of the state Parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia and one of the top candidates toying with the idea of leaving, said: “We are living a decisive moment in the SPD’s history. There is a great desire for a new start, for a new era. These primaries are about who can embody that change.”For these slates especially, the SPD vote is an epochal moment in party history. Christina Kampmann, 39, a member of the state Parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia and one of the top candidates toying with the idea of leaving, said: “We are living a decisive moment in the SPD’s history. There is a great desire for a new start, for a new era. These primaries are about who can embody that change.”
A new era indeed, and not just for the German Social Democrats. Across Western European countries, social democratic parties have gone from an average of well over a third of the vote in the mid-’90s to about a fifth in recent years. Some, like the Socialist Party in France, have been struck particularly hard: In the 2017 parliamentary election, it received just 7.4 percent. Others, like the Social Democratic Party of Austria, are doing better, but still regularly lose elections.A new era indeed, and not just for the German Social Democrats. Across Western European countries, social democratic parties have gone from an average of well over a third of the vote in the mid-’90s to about a fifth in recent years. Some, like the Socialist Party in France, have been struck particularly hard: In the 2017 parliamentary election, it received just 7.4 percent. Others, like the Social Democratic Party of Austria, are doing better, but still regularly lose elections.
While there are country-specific factors for these declines, most social scientists agree that the root causes are structural. The share of center-left voters remains stable, but social democrats are increasingly unable to mobilize them. Silja Häusermann, a political scientist at the University of Zurich, argues that the cleavages parting European societies have shifted from the economic and class-related factors that dominated the postwar period toward issues like migration and climate change. Such issues divide culturally more liberal globalists from the culturally more conservative “communitarians” — both of which were once to be found among traditional social-democratic voters.While there are country-specific factors for these declines, most social scientists agree that the root causes are structural. The share of center-left voters remains stable, but social democrats are increasingly unable to mobilize them. Silja Häusermann, a political scientist at the University of Zurich, argues that the cleavages parting European societies have shifted from the economic and class-related factors that dominated the postwar period toward issues like migration and climate change. Such issues divide culturally more liberal globalists from the culturally more conservative “communitarians” — both of which were once to be found among traditional social-democratic voters.
Add to that the loss of industrial labor as a social identity, the decline in union membership, and the rise of green parties, populist parties and parties on the extreme left that offer more tailored policies and identities — all of these challenge the former big-tent model of left-wing political organizing.Add to that the loss of industrial labor as a social identity, the decline in union membership, and the rise of green parties, populist parties and parties on the extreme left that offer more tailored policies and identities — all of these challenge the former big-tent model of left-wing political organizing.
Under the pressure of decline, many of Europe’s social democratic parties have slipped into leadership brawls and harsh battles over their parties’ course. Too often, they grasp at faint hopes — marginal successes by, say, the Portuguese left, with its recipe for fiscal discipline and stimulating growth, or the Danish Social Democrats, who have leaned into anti-immigrant rhetoric.Under the pressure of decline, many of Europe’s social democratic parties have slipped into leadership brawls and harsh battles over their parties’ course. Too often, they grasp at faint hopes — marginal successes by, say, the Portuguese left, with its recipe for fiscal discipline and stimulating growth, or the Danish Social Democrats, who have leaned into anti-immigrant rhetoric.
Open primaries, which other parties in Europe are considering, can have a moderating effect if a party’s base is more moderate than its leadership, said Thomas Poguntke, a political scientist at the University of Düsseldorf. In Italy, he points out, Matteo Renzi managed to defend his centrist course within the Democratic Party in 2013 against leftist opposition among the leadership by relying on a primary that was open to nonmembers.Open primaries, which other parties in Europe are considering, can have a moderating effect if a party’s base is more moderate than its leadership, said Thomas Poguntke, a political scientist at the University of Düsseldorf. In Italy, he points out, Matteo Renzi managed to defend his centrist course within the Democratic Party in 2013 against leftist opposition among the leadership by relying on a primary that was open to nonmembers.
At the same time, open primaries can skew the results, allowing unorthodox candidates, like Donald Trump, to overcome establishment opposition. In France, the far-left candidate Benoît Hamon took control of the Socialist Party from the mainstream front-runner Manuel Valls. In Britain, the pacifist Socialist Jeremy Corbyn was elected leader of the Labour Party in 2015 in an election opened up to “registered supporters” who could join the vote for three pounds.At the same time, open primaries can skew the results, allowing unorthodox candidates, like Donald Trump, to overcome establishment opposition. In France, the far-left candidate Benoît Hamon took control of the Socialist Party from the mainstream front-runner Manuel Valls. In Britain, the pacifist Socialist Jeremy Corbyn was elected leader of the Labour Party in 2015 in an election opened up to “registered supporters” who could join the vote for three pounds.
Among the German candidates, there is no Jeremy Corbyn; even those who advocate leaving the Grand Coalition are relatively moderate in their politics. Still, the stakes are still high, as are the risks. The SPD’s primary is fostering the illusion that a new leader, or a short-term move like leaving the government, will cure what ails the party. None of it grapples with the tectonic shift in European politics away from centrist compromise and toward hardheaded polarization.Among the German candidates, there is no Jeremy Corbyn; even those who advocate leaving the Grand Coalition are relatively moderate in their politics. Still, the stakes are still high, as are the risks. The SPD’s primary is fostering the illusion that a new leader, or a short-term move like leaving the government, will cure what ails the party. None of it grapples with the tectonic shift in European politics away from centrist compromise and toward hardheaded polarization.
The future of Europe’s Social Democrats will be decided less upon who leads them, and more upon whom they can attract to build a new, lasting base. It’s not about whose faces are on the poster. It’s what they have to offer. And so far, Europe’s social democrats haven’t figured that part out.The future of Europe’s Social Democrats will be decided less upon who leads them, and more upon whom they can attract to build a new, lasting base. It’s not about whose faces are on the poster. It’s what they have to offer. And so far, Europe’s social democrats haven’t figured that part out.
Anna Sauerbrey, a contributing opinion writer since 2015, has been an editor and writer at the German daily newspaper Der Tagesspiegel since 2011.Anna Sauerbrey, a contributing opinion writer since 2015, has been an editor and writer at the German daily newspaper Der Tagesspiegel since 2011.
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