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| Brexit 'super Saturday': your guide to the big day | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| After over three years of parliamentary events touted as momentous, we will get one that definitely lives up to the billing – the first Saturday sitting of the Commons since the Falklands conflict, which will see a potentially knife-edge vote on a plan that could shape the UK’s future for a generation. | After over three years of parliamentary events touted as momentous, we will get one that definitely lives up to the billing – the first Saturday sitting of the Commons since the Falklands conflict, which will see a potentially knife-edge vote on a plan that could shape the UK’s future for a generation. |
| What is the schedule for Saturday? | What is the schedule for Saturday? |
| The Commons convenes at 9.30am with a statement from Boris Johnson on the Brexit deal he has negotiated with the EU, followed by questions. | The Commons convenes at 9.30am with a statement from Boris Johnson on the Brexit deal he has negotiated with the EU, followed by questions. |
| The actual motion on the deal follows afterwards, to be opened by another minister. It is only when this debate begins that we will know which amendments have been selected for a vote by the Speaker, John Bercow. | The actual motion on the deal follows afterwards, to be opened by another minister. It is only when this debate begins that we will know which amendments have been selected for a vote by the Speaker, John Bercow. |
| The number of amendments will affect the length of the process, so the key vote could come any time from mid-afternoon to early evening. Also on the order paper is the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act – better known as the Benn Act. This is the backbench-created law that would compel Johnson to seek a Brexit extension if his deal is not passed. The Lords is also sitting to consider the same two issues. | The number of amendments will affect the length of the process, so the key vote could come any time from mid-afternoon to early evening. Also on the order paper is the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act – better known as the Benn Act. This is the backbench-created law that would compel Johnson to seek a Brexit extension if his deal is not passed. The Lords is also sitting to consider the same two issues. |
| Will there be amendments? | Will there be amendments? |
| Some have already been tabled, for example one to extend the Brexit deadline. A key one could be that tabled by Oliver Letwin, Hilary Benn and others that would withhold full approval for the Brexit deal until all the associated legislation was passed. | Some have already been tabled, for example one to extend the Brexit deadline. A key one could be that tabled by Oliver Letwin, Hilary Benn and others that would withhold full approval for the Brexit deal until all the associated legislation was passed. |
| This would seem likely to require another extension, and would delay the real moment of truth for MPs. One reason for this amendment would be to prevent the possibility of hardline Brexit Conservatives approving the deal – thus removing the conditions of the Benn act – but then voting down the subsequent withdrawal agreement bill (WAB), which implements the legally binding treaty, and so forcing no deal anyway. | This would seem likely to require another extension, and would delay the real moment of truth for MPs. One reason for this amendment would be to prevent the possibility of hardline Brexit Conservatives approving the deal – thus removing the conditions of the Benn act – but then voting down the subsequent withdrawal agreement bill (WAB), which implements the legally binding treaty, and so forcing no deal anyway. |
| Will MPs know the full implications of the deal? | Will MPs know the full implications of the deal? |
| Not really. The deal was cobbled together and agreed with the EU in a huge rush, and MPs will have only a few hours of debate in the Commons before making a hugely important decision. Downing Street has said MPs will not see official economic impact assessments of the plan in advance, despite some requesting this. | Not really. The deal was cobbled together and agreed with the EU in a huge rush, and MPs will have only a few hours of debate in the Commons before making a hugely important decision. Downing Street has said MPs will not see official economic impact assessments of the plan in advance, despite some requesting this. |
| What happens if the plan passes? | What happens if the plan passes? |
| If it passes unamended, this would still be the first stage of the process, and even with Downing Street promising that MPs would work around the clock as needed, there is no guarantee everything will be done by 31 October. No 10 would hope to present the WAB to the Commons as early as Monday. If the deal motion is amended, for example by the Letwin-Benn plan, a delay to departure is more likely. | If it passes unamended, this would still be the first stage of the process, and even with Downing Street promising that MPs would work around the clock as needed, there is no guarantee everything will be done by 31 October. No 10 would hope to present the WAB to the Commons as early as Monday. If the deal motion is amended, for example by the Letwin-Benn plan, a delay to departure is more likely. |
| Do we get no deal if the plan is rejected? | Do we get no deal if the plan is rejected? |
| Most likely not, even though Johnson seems set to frame the vote in these terms, and the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, briefly startled remain-minded MPs by telling reporters he did not think another Brexit extension would be granted. EU sources have said that if Johnson’s deal is rejected, meaning the Benn Act would come into force, they would not reject a UK request for another extension. | Most likely not, even though Johnson seems set to frame the vote in these terms, and the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, briefly startled remain-minded MPs by telling reporters he did not think another Brexit extension would be granted. EU sources have said that if Johnson’s deal is rejected, meaning the Benn Act would come into force, they would not reject a UK request for another extension. |
| Which MPs are key to whether it passes? | Which MPs are key to whether it passes? |
| With the DUP definitely against the deal, and a number of the former Tory MPs who lost the whip last month seemingly on board, two groups will be vital. First are the so-called Spartans, the most hardline of Tory Brexiters. Some of these have already come on board, and others could follow – but with the DUP opposed, this is still a finely balanced decision. | With the DUP definitely against the deal, and a number of the former Tory MPs who lost the whip last month seemingly on board, two groups will be vital. First are the so-called Spartans, the most hardline of Tory Brexiters. Some of these have already come on board, and others could follow – but with the DUP opposed, this is still a finely balanced decision. |
| The other group set to be endlessly pestered by Johnson’s team are Labour MPs from leave-voting areas who support a deal, such as Caroline Flint, Stephen Kinnock and others. They face intense Labour pressure to vote against it, but could still potentially be persuaded the vote the other way. These MPs might be more likely to back the deal if it was amended via the Letwin-Benn plan. | The other group set to be endlessly pestered by Johnson’s team are Labour MPs from leave-voting areas who support a deal, such as Caroline Flint, Stephen Kinnock and others. They face intense Labour pressure to vote against it, but could still potentially be persuaded the vote the other way. These MPs might be more likely to back the deal if it was amended via the Letwin-Benn plan. |
| So will it pass – and if so, is it all over? | So will it pass – and if so, is it all over? |
| On the first point – no one knows. The final tally could come within a couple of votes. It is worth remembering that Theresa May’s defeats on her Brexit deal ended up being heavier than expected. However, some momentum seem to be with Johnson. As to the second question: no, not at all. Even if the deal is passed, this is but the first step in a long parliamentary process, which would in turn shape an evolving and still very controversial departure process over many years. Prepare for much, much more of this. | On the first point – no one knows. The final tally could come within a couple of votes. It is worth remembering that Theresa May’s defeats on her Brexit deal ended up being heavier than expected. However, some momentum seem to be with Johnson. As to the second question: no, not at all. Even if the deal is passed, this is but the first step in a long parliamentary process, which would in turn shape an evolving and still very controversial departure process over many years. Prepare for much, much more of this. |
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