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| Brexit deal: Boris Johnson launches frantic sales pitch ahead of knife-edge vote on Saturday – live news | Brexit deal: Boris Johnson launches frantic sales pitch ahead of knife-edge vote on Saturday – live news |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| The Tory Brexiter John Baron told the BBC this morning that Boris Johnson’s deal could make a no-deal Brexit possible at the end of next year, when the transition ends. (See 11.02am.) The People’s Vote campaign claims this comment shows that no deal remains a Brexiter ambition. It has released this quote from the Tory MP Guto Bebb, a PV supporter. He said: | |
| John Baron let the cat out of the bag. He admits that he and many of his fellow ideologues in the extremist Conservative faction of the ERG are supporting Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals only because they see it as the fastest way to fulfil their no deal fantasies. | |
| Liberty has lost a bid to have an urgent hearing of its case against Boris Johnson over the Brexit deadline, the Press Association reports. Lawyers for the civil rights organisation argued today that its legal challenge, brought to ensure Johnson “acts within the law”, should be heard immediately. But their application for an urgent hearing was rejected by court of appeal judges, who said there was no need for an expedited hearing. | |
| Government lawyers said Liberty’s case does not need to proceed urgently, as there is “ample time” for it to be heard before the UK’s planned exit from the EU on October 31, the Press Association reports. | |
| Mark Francois, the deputy chair of the European Research Group, which represents hardline Tory Brexiters, and one of the 28 “Spartans” who voted against Theresa May’s deal on all three occasions, has gone into No 10 for a meeting with the PM. On his way in he said: | |
| I still have some concerns about some of the specifics of the deal. So I’m going to go in now and discuss them personally with the prime minister. He very kindly granted me a meeting. And I’ll decided what to do when I’ve had a chance to put some questions to the prime minister. | |
| From YouGov | |
| BREAKING: Snap YouGov poll finds that by 41% to 24%, Britons want Parliament to pass Boris Johnson's Brexit deal. Two thirds (67%) of Leave voters want the deal passed https://t.co/2FZCSNZmE2 pic.twitter.com/PhQ4skIuFE | |
| From Sky’s Rob Powell | From Sky’s Rob Powell |
| NEW: Brexiteer Mark Francois - who voted against May's deal three times - heads into Downing Street to meet Boris Johnson. He says he "still has concerns about some of the specifics of the deal" and will decide what to do after meeting the PM. | NEW: Brexiteer Mark Francois - who voted against May's deal three times - heads into Downing Street to meet Boris Johnson. He says he "still has concerns about some of the specifics of the deal" and will decide what to do after meeting the PM. |
| The DUP MP Sammy Wilson is urging Tory MPs to join the DUP in rejecting Boris Johnson’s deal. | The DUP MP Sammy Wilson is urging Tory MPs to join the DUP in rejecting Boris Johnson’s deal. |
| Conservative & Unionist MPs must take a stand for the Union and join us in rejecting this deal. Internal & burdensome trade barriers will be erected within the UK without parallel consent from both unionists & nationalists. This is not Brexit. | Conservative & Unionist MPs must take a stand for the Union and join us in rejecting this deal. Internal & burdensome trade barriers will be erected within the UK without parallel consent from both unionists & nationalists. This is not Brexit. |
| Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, told the BBC this morning that, if Boris Johnson wins the vote tomorrow, the opposition parties should unite to bring down his government with a no confidence vote. Blackford said: | Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, told the BBC this morning that, if Boris Johnson wins the vote tomorrow, the opposition parties should unite to bring down his government with a no confidence vote. Blackford said: |
| If it does go through [the deal], we will be saying to the opposition parties that we have to come together. We have to remove Boris Johnson’s government from office and we have to move to an early general election. | If it does go through [the deal], we will be saying to the opposition parties that we have to come together. We have to remove Boris Johnson’s government from office and we have to move to an early general election. |
| This is a deal that if it does get support in the House of Commons, is going to be devastating for our communities, devastating for jobs. | This is a deal that if it does get support in the House of Commons, is going to be devastating for our communities, devastating for jobs. |
| Richard Benyon, one of the 21 Tories who lost the whip after rebelling over Brexit last month, has confirmed that he will vote for the government tomorrow. | Richard Benyon, one of the 21 Tories who lost the whip after rebelling over Brexit last month, has confirmed that he will vote for the government tomorrow. |
| I will be supporting the deal tomorrow | I will be supporting the deal tomorrow |
| Many of the 21 will be voting with the government. They rebelled because they wanted parliament to rule out a no-deal Brexit, but many of them are willing to see the UK leave the EU as long as a deal is in place. | Many of the 21 will be voting with the government. They rebelled because they wanted parliament to rule out a no-deal Brexit, but many of them are willing to see the UK leave the EU as long as a deal is in place. |
| The government may not be publishing an economic impact assessment of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal ahead of tomorrow’s vote (see 11.50am), but MPs who cannot wait for the official verdict could do a lot worse than read this report on the topic published at the weekend (pdf). It was published by the UK in a Changing Europe, an academic research network, and it is based on economic modelling of Theresa May’s deal, Johnson’s deal, and a WTO Brexit (ie, no deal). | The government may not be publishing an economic impact assessment of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal ahead of tomorrow’s vote (see 11.50am), but MPs who cannot wait for the official verdict could do a lot worse than read this report on the topic published at the weekend (pdf). It was published by the UK in a Changing Europe, an academic research network, and it is based on economic modelling of Theresa May’s deal, Johnson’s deal, and a WTO Brexit (ie, no deal). |
| The report says UK trade would be lower under all three options than it would be if the UK stayed in the EU, with Johnson’s plan being considerably more damaging than May’s. Looking ahead 10 years, it estimates that Johnson’s plan would cost Britons £800 per head. | The report says UK trade would be lower under all three options than it would be if the UK stayed in the EU, with Johnson’s plan being considerably more damaging than May’s. Looking ahead 10 years, it estimates that Johnson’s plan would cost Britons £800 per head. |
| Here is an extract from the report: | Here is an extract from the report: |
| Relative to staying in the EU, income per capita in the UK would be 2.5% lower under Mr Johnson’s proposals, compared to 1.7% under Mrs May’s deal and 3.3% in the WTO scenario. We draw the following conclusions: | Relative to staying in the EU, income per capita in the UK would be 2.5% lower under Mr Johnson’s proposals, compared to 1.7% under Mrs May’s deal and 3.3% in the WTO scenario. We draw the following conclusions: |
| All three scenarios would reduce UK living standards compared to staying in the EU. | All three scenarios would reduce UK living standards compared to staying in the EU. |
| The decline in income per capita under Mr Johnson’s proposals is 50% greater than for Mrs May’s deal, but smaller than under a WTO exit. The costs of Mr Johnson’s proposals are roughly equidistant between those of Mrs May’s deal and a WTO exit. | The decline in income per capita under Mr Johnson’s proposals is 50% greater than for Mrs May’s deal, but smaller than under a WTO exit. The costs of Mr Johnson’s proposals are roughly equidistant between those of Mrs May’s deal and a WTO exit. |
| And here is a chart with the figures. | And here is a chart with the figures. |
| These figures do not take into account the impact on productivity. The report says trade integration can raise productivity, and that when the impact on productivity of post-Brexit trade barriers is also included, the impact of all three options is even worse. | These figures do not take into account the impact on productivity. The report says trade integration can raise productivity, and that when the impact on productivity of post-Brexit trade barriers is also included, the impact of all three options is even worse. |
| The report also looks at the impact of the three Brexit options on government finances. it explains: | The report also looks at the impact of the three Brexit options on government finances. it explains: |
| To estimate the implications for the government finances, we assume that a 1% fall in GDP per capita reduces government revenue by 0.4% of GDP. As noted above, we also assume that the public finances benefit by 0.4% of GDP per year as a result of reduced EU net contributions, although this may be optimistic … | |
| Our most optimistic scenario suggests that, assuming no contributions to the EU budget, Mr Johnson’s deal would leave the public finances £16bn worse off at current prices. For comparison, the government forecasts transport spending at £19bn in 2019-20 (at 2018-19 prices). Our most pessimistic scenario forecasts a much greater impact on the public purse, of around £49bn. This is substantially above current forecast spending on defence in 2019-20 of £39bn (at 2018-19 prices). | |
| And here are the figures. | And here are the figures. |
| MPs will not see any official economic analysis of the impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal before they vote on it on Saturday, Downing Street has confirmed, with such documents only being produced subsequently. | MPs will not see any official economic analysis of the impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal before they vote on it on Saturday, Downing Street has confirmed, with such documents only being produced subsequently. |
| The Labour MP Hilary Benn has written to the government seeking an impact assessment. But Johnson’s spokeswoman said these would be more relevant when MPs debated the subsequent withdrawal agreement bill, or WAB, setting out the fuller framework of departure, which will happen if the deal is approved. | The Labour MP Hilary Benn has written to the government seeking an impact assessment. But Johnson’s spokeswoman said these would be more relevant when MPs debated the subsequent withdrawal agreement bill, or WAB, setting out the fuller framework of departure, which will happen if the deal is approved. |
| Asked about the economic analysis she said: | Asked about the economic analysis she said: |
| It’s worth saying that this negotiation focused primarily on the withdrawal agreement and the changes that we were seeking to make there, rather than the political declaration. We will keep parliament updated throughout the process of passing the WAB. If the motion is voted for on Saturday, we’ll set out some more details on Monday in relation to publications next week. | It’s worth saying that this negotiation focused primarily on the withdrawal agreement and the changes that we were seeking to make there, rather than the political declaration. We will keep parliament updated throughout the process of passing the WAB. If the motion is voted for on Saturday, we’ll set out some more details on Monday in relation to publications next week. |
| Asked to confirm that this meant no analysis would appear before Saturday’s vote, she added: “We will publish analysis at the appropriate times.” | Asked to confirm that this meant no analysis would appear before Saturday’s vote, she added: “We will publish analysis at the appropriate times.” |
| We also learned that Johnson will chair a cabinet meeting today at 4pm, and is spending the rest of the day with his team trying to persuade wavering MPs to back his plan, largely on the phone, as parliament is not sitting. | We also learned that Johnson will chair a cabinet meeting today at 4pm, and is spending the rest of the day with his team trying to persuade wavering MPs to back his plan, largely on the phone, as parliament is not sitting. |
| Johnson will open Saturday’s proceedings with a statement and questions on his plan, just after 9.30am. The actual motion on the deal will follow afterwards, at which point the Speaker, John Bercow, will say what amendments have been selected for votes. | Johnson will open Saturday’s proceedings with a statement and questions on his plan, just after 9.30am. The actual motion on the deal will follow afterwards, at which point the Speaker, John Bercow, will say what amendments have been selected for votes. |
| The number of amendments will largely shape the timing of the crucial vote, and No 10 believe it could be as late as the evening. | The number of amendments will largely shape the timing of the crucial vote, and No 10 believe it could be as late as the evening. |
| Asked about Jon Lansman’s suggestion that any Labour MP who backed Boris Johnson’s deal should be prevented from standing as a candidate at the next election (see 10.57am), a spokesman for Jeremy Corbyn pointed out that Corbyn had not backed this idea when asked about it recently. Asked if any MP who rebelled on this vote would lose the party whip, Corbyn replied: | Asked about Jon Lansman’s suggestion that any Labour MP who backed Boris Johnson’s deal should be prevented from standing as a candidate at the next election (see 10.57am), a spokesman for Jeremy Corbyn pointed out that Corbyn had not backed this idea when asked about it recently. Asked if any MP who rebelled on this vote would lose the party whip, Corbyn replied: |
| I believe in the power of persuasion rather than the power of threat. I will ask all Labour MPs to vote along with the party in opposing any deal which damages rights and protections in our society or drives us into the arms of Donald Trump. | I believe in the power of persuasion rather than the power of threat. I will ask all Labour MPs to vote along with the party in opposing any deal which damages rights and protections in our society or drives us into the arms of Donald Trump. |
| Steve Baker, chair of the European Research Group and one of the 28 “Spartans” who voted against Theresa May’s deal three times, wants to keep the media guessing as to how the ERG hardcore Brexiters will vote tomorrow. He has posted this on Twitter. | Steve Baker, chair of the European Research Group and one of the 28 “Spartans” who voted against Theresa May’s deal three times, wants to keep the media guessing as to how the ERG hardcore Brexiters will vote tomorrow. He has posted this on Twitter. |
| Sorry - no news from us before the morning. (One or two journalists have been asking!) https://t.co/RMTs4kN8Ao | Sorry - no news from us before the morning. (One or two journalists have been asking!) https://t.co/RMTs4kN8Ao |
| The ERG is due to meet tomorrow when it will discuss the vote and make a recommendation. Baker may like to imply that it is all still up in the air but, as the Guardian reported on Wednesday, the signs are that most of the “Spartans” are likely to support the PM. Comments this morning from Andrew Bridgen (see 8.19am) and John Baron (see 11.02am) are firming up that analysis. | The ERG is due to meet tomorrow when it will discuss the vote and make a recommendation. Baker may like to imply that it is all still up in the air but, as the Guardian reported on Wednesday, the signs are that most of the “Spartans” are likely to support the PM. Comments this morning from Andrew Bridgen (see 8.19am) and John Baron (see 11.02am) are firming up that analysis. |
| The Labour MP John Mann has predicted that “more than nine” of his parliamentary colleagues will vote for Johnson’s deal on Saturday. | The Labour MP John Mann has predicted that “more than nine” of his parliamentary colleagues will vote for Johnson’s deal on Saturday. |
| The Bassetlaw MP told RTE radio on Friday morning he would be voting for the Johnson deal with others prepared to risk the Labour whip and join him. | The Bassetlaw MP told RTE radio on Friday morning he would be voting for the Johnson deal with others prepared to risk the Labour whip and join him. |
| “I think there will be more Labour MPs [voting for the deal] than British media have been speculating this morning,” he said, adding that this was because these MPs saw no deal as a worse option. | “I think there will be more Labour MPs [voting for the deal] than British media have been speculating this morning,” he said, adding that this was because these MPs saw no deal as a worse option. |
| He told the Sean O’Rourke show that Labour MPs who were saying the deal would erode workers rights were wrong because it would be up to parliament to confirm anything set out in the political declaration in the next set of negotiations for a trade deal. If parliament wanted to reduce workers’ rights, then “more fool them”, he said. | He told the Sean O’Rourke show that Labour MPs who were saying the deal would erode workers rights were wrong because it would be up to parliament to confirm anything set out in the political declaration in the next set of negotiations for a trade deal. If parliament wanted to reduce workers’ rights, then “more fool them”, he said. |
| Asked how many Labour MPs would vote for Johnson deal, he replied: “More than nine.” | Asked how many Labour MPs would vote for Johnson deal, he replied: “More than nine.” |
| The Financial Times vote count quoted earlier (see 9.40am) had seven Labour MPs voting for the deal, and Boris Johnson losing by three votes. If Mann is right about the number of Labour rebels, and the FT is right about everything else, Johnson would win. | The Financial Times vote count quoted earlier (see 9.40am) had seven Labour MPs voting for the deal, and Boris Johnson losing by three votes. If Mann is right about the number of Labour rebels, and the FT is right about everything else, Johnson would win. |
| Angela Merkel has told EU leaders a Brexit extension will be unavoidable if MPs vote down the deal agreed with Boris Johnson, my colleague Jennifer Rankin reports. Her story goes on: | Angela Merkel has told EU leaders a Brexit extension will be unavoidable if MPs vote down the deal agreed with Boris Johnson, my colleague Jennifer Rankin reports. Her story goes on: |
| During private EU summit talks on Brexit, the German chancellor told her fellow leaders they could not pretend an extension would not be offered to the UK if it was requested, according to a source familiar with the discussions. | During private EU summit talks on Brexit, the German chancellor told her fellow leaders they could not pretend an extension would not be offered to the UK if it was requested, according to a source familiar with the discussions. |
| Merkel framed Brexit as a historic issue weighing on the EU and said leaders had a responsibility not to push the UK out if there was a request for further delay. | Merkel framed Brexit as a historic issue weighing on the EU and said leaders had a responsibility not to push the UK out if there was a request for further delay. |
| Her remarks contrast with the public statement of Jean-Claude Juncker, who said he was “ruling out” an extension. Although the outgoing commission president has no power to veto any delay, he said: “If we have a deal, we have a deal and there is no need for prolongation.” | Her remarks contrast with the public statement of Jean-Claude Juncker, who said he was “ruling out” an extension. Although the outgoing commission president has no power to veto any delay, he said: “If we have a deal, we have a deal and there is no need for prolongation.” |
| And here is Jennifer’s story in full. | And here is Jennifer’s story in full. |
| Brexit extension unavoidable if MPs reject deal, says Merkel | Brexit extension unavoidable if MPs reject deal, says Merkel |
| Huda Elmi, another member of Labour’s national executive committee, has backed Jon Lansman (see 10.57am) in saying that any Labour MP who votes for Boris Johnson’s deal should not be allowed to stand as a parliamentary candidate for the party again. | Huda Elmi, another member of Labour’s national executive committee, has backed Jon Lansman (see 10.57am) in saying that any Labour MP who votes for Boris Johnson’s deal should not be allowed to stand as a parliamentary candidate for the party again. |
| It’s pretty basic. Being a Labour MP means opposing the Tories when they try to destroy our country. This reckless sell out deal is even worse than Theresa May's, and any Labour MP that sides with Boris Johnson has no right to stand at the next election. | It’s pretty basic. Being a Labour MP means opposing the Tories when they try to destroy our country. This reckless sell out deal is even worse than Theresa May's, and any Labour MP that sides with Boris Johnson has no right to stand at the next election. |
| Elmi’s stance is not surprising because she was elected to the NEC along with Lansman when all nine slots allocated for people elected by CLPs (constituency Labour parties) were won by people on the Momentum slate. It is quite possible that all of the so-called #JC9 (apart from the one who has been suspended) would take this view. But they do not have a majority on the NEC, which on most issues votes in accordance with the wishes of the party leadership. | Elmi’s stance is not surprising because she was elected to the NEC along with Lansman when all nine slots allocated for people elected by CLPs (constituency Labour parties) were won by people on the Momentum slate. It is quite possible that all of the so-called #JC9 (apart from the one who has been suspended) would take this view. But they do not have a majority on the NEC, which on most issues votes in accordance with the wishes of the party leadership. |
| The Tory Brexiter John Baron was one of the 28 “Spartans” who voted against Theresa May’s deal three times. But he told BBC News this morning he was planning to vote for Boris Johnson’s deal because there was now no danger of Northern Ireland being trapped in the backstop (the point underlined by Geoffrey Cox this morning – see 10.08am). Baron explained: | The Tory Brexiter John Baron was one of the 28 “Spartans” who voted against Theresa May’s deal three times. But he told BBC News this morning he was planning to vote for Boris Johnson’s deal because there was now no danger of Northern Ireland being trapped in the backstop (the point underlined by Geoffrey Cox this morning – see 10.08am). Baron explained: |
| The reason I am inclined to vote for this one is very simple; Theresa May’s backstop could have had us locked into that arrangement indefinitely. Boris Johnson has torn up that backstop, which means that if the trade talks are not successful after we hopefully agree the deal tomorrow here, then we could leave on no-deal terms. And the reason that’s important is that, by leaving no deal on the table, it makes a good trade deal in those negotiations up to December 2020 more likely to succeed. | The reason I am inclined to vote for this one is very simple; Theresa May’s backstop could have had us locked into that arrangement indefinitely. Boris Johnson has torn up that backstop, which means that if the trade talks are not successful after we hopefully agree the deal tomorrow here, then we could leave on no-deal terms. And the reason that’s important is that, by leaving no deal on the table, it makes a good trade deal in those negotiations up to December 2020 more likely to succeed. |
| Asked how many other “Spartans” would back Johnson tomorrow, Baron replied: | Asked how many other “Spartans” would back Johnson tomorrow, Baron replied: |
| I can’t speak for everybody, but my sense of it is that the momentum is with the prime minister on this. | I can’t speak for everybody, but my sense of it is that the momentum is with the prime minister on this. |
| Jon Lansman, the founder of Momentum, the Labour organisation for Jeremy Corbyn supporters and a member of the party’s national executive committee, has said that any Labour MP who votes for Boris Johnson’s deal should not be allowed to stand again as a Labour candidate. | Jon Lansman, the founder of Momentum, the Labour organisation for Jeremy Corbyn supporters and a member of the party’s national executive committee, has said that any Labour MP who votes for Boris Johnson’s deal should not be allowed to stand again as a Labour candidate. |
| Johnson's deal will be a wrecking ball through the lives & well-being of ordinary people across Britain. Labour MPs cannot and must not vote for it. If they do, the NEC will have no choice but to replace them with a new, socialist Labour candidate at the next election | Johnson's deal will be a wrecking ball through the lives & well-being of ordinary people across Britain. Labour MPs cannot and must not vote for it. If they do, the NEC will have no choice but to replace them with a new, socialist Labour candidate at the next election |
| Although Lansman is a close ally of Corbyn’s, he is not a proxy for the Labour leader and the two don’t always agree. The Labour leadership has never said it would remove the whip from MPs who vote with the government tomorrow (John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, sidestepped a question on this on the Today programme this morning) and it has been reported that Corbyn definitely will not remove the whip from them. Removing the whip would prevent people from standing for the party at the next election. This is from the BBC’s Nick Eardley. | Although Lansman is a close ally of Corbyn’s, he is not a proxy for the Labour leader and the two don’t always agree. The Labour leadership has never said it would remove the whip from MPs who vote with the government tomorrow (John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, sidestepped a question on this on the Today programme this morning) and it has been reported that Corbyn definitely will not remove the whip from them. Removing the whip would prevent people from standing for the party at the next election. This is from the BBC’s Nick Eardley. |
| Understand Labour MPs will not lose whip if they back PM's deal on Saturday | Understand Labour MPs will not lose whip if they back PM's deal on Saturday |
| Raoul Ruparel, who was Theresa May’s Europe adviser in No 10, has posted a good thread on Twitter explaining the differences between her Brexit deal and Boris Johnson’s. It starts here. | Raoul Ruparel, who was Theresa May’s Europe adviser in No 10, has posted a good thread on Twitter explaining the differences between her Brexit deal and Boris Johnson’s. It starts here. |
| Have taken time to review the deal. A thread with some thoughts (noting it is similar to proposal I set out below). The vast majority is also the same as the deal negotiated by previous Govt but with a few crucial changes - based on real compromises from both sides /1 https://t.co/qBdbkdXl11 | Have taken time to review the deal. A thread with some thoughts (noting it is similar to proposal I set out below). The vast majority is also the same as the deal negotiated by previous Govt but with a few crucial changes - based on real compromises from both sides /1 https://t.co/qBdbkdXl11 |
| And here is his conclusion. | And here is his conclusion. |
| Is it a good deal or better deal? Depends on your point of view. It leaves the future more open & allows UK to be sure of an independent trade policy. But it makes significant changes to trade within our Union, which may become permanent albeit with democratic oversight. /10 ENDS | Is it a good deal or better deal? Depends on your point of view. It leaves the future more open & allows UK to be sure of an independent trade policy. But it makes significant changes to trade within our Union, which may become permanent albeit with democratic oversight. /10 ENDS |