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Signs of Brexit Progress, but Doubts Remain, E.U. Official Says Optimism Builds in Brussels for a Deal on Brexit, as Talks Go Down to the Wire
(about 2 hours later)
LONDON — Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, said on Wednesday that negotiators would know “in seven to eight hours” whether Britain had struck a deal to leave the European Union, setting the stage for down-to-the-wire talks that could shape the fate of Brexit. BRUSSELS — Missing a succession of deadlines, Brexit talks on Wednesday went down to the wire on the eve of a critical summit of European Union leaders amid signs that the deadlock over Britain’s planed departure from the bloc could be on the verge of breaking.
But a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain said a number of issues were still yet to be resolved, as talks continued between his office and unionists from Northern Ireland whose support was crucial to any deal. Tense discussions continued in Brussels, where British and European officials were closeted in the headquarters of the European Commission, while in London, Prime Minister Boris Johnson sought to cajole influential lawmakers into accepting difficult compromises.
“Theoretically, in seven to eight hours everything should be clear,” Mr. Tusk said to reporters in remarks broadcast on Poland’s TVN24. “Yesterday evening, I was ready to bet that it’s all set and agreed. Today, there are certain doubts on the British side.” Throughout the day sentiment seesawed between caution and optimism as officials raced to reach agreement on a draft text that could be put to European heads of government on Thursday when they arrive in Brussels.
But he said an agreement could be reached as soon as Thursday, in time for the opening of a summit meeting of European leaders. “It is still undergoing changes, and the basic foundations of this agreement are ready, and theoretically, we could accept a deal tomorrow,” he said. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, told a Polish broadcaster, TVN24 on Wednesday afternoon that the “basic foundations of an agreement are ready.” Later, President Emmanuel Macron of France, who has taken a hard line in the negotiations, said at a news conference, “I want to believe an agreement is being finalized and that we will be able to endorse it tomorrow.”
Despite Mr. Tusk’s optimistic tone, analysts said it was far from clear whether a deal could be reached by Wednesday night. Some European officials were predicting that the two sides would not be able to close the gap on customs issues in time. But conflicting signals from diplomats reflected the complexity and sensitivity of the negotiation underway, and the fact that neither party wants to be blamed should the talks collapse. Adding to the sense of uncertainty, European Union diplomats know that Mr. Johnson has no majority in the British Parliament, so that he might struggle to deliver on any deal he strikes.
And after a meeting of Mr. Johnson’s cabinet on Wednesday, some lawmakers said there was still work to be done. To have a good prospect of ratifying a new agreement in Parliament, Mr. Johnson needs the support, in particular, of 10 lawmakers from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, who prop up the government but who helped torpedo a previous Brexit agreement negotiated by Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May.
Any deal must still clear several hurdles, including getting approval from Europe’s leaders and, most crucially, passage in the British Parliament, where Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, suffered three thunderous defeats after bringing back an agreement with Brussels. Talks with the D.U.P. took place in Downing Street on Wednesday, after which the party’s leader, Arlene Foster, declared that there was more work to do. “‘E.U. sources’ are talking nonsense,” she said in a Twitter post. “Discussions continue. Needs to be a sensible deal which unionists and nationalists can support.”
For days, Mr. Johnson has worked frantically to bridge a gap over the issue of how to treat Northern Ireland in a post-Brexit Europe — a fiendishly complex issue that helped torpedo Mrs. May’s agreement and that could still fracture Mr. Johnson’s Conservative-led coalition in Parliament. In a meeting with Conservative lawmakers, Mr. Johnson compared the negotiations to climbing Mount Everest, saying he was on the perilous last approach but that the peak was still “shrouded in mist.”
Mr. Johnson has given significant ground on the structure of a customs union that would allow Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, to continue to trade seamlessly with Ireland and other members of the European Union, according to people briefed on the talks. If there is a deal, and if European Union leaders approve it, Mr. Johnson wants to rush it through Britain’s Parliament on Saturday.
But several sticking points remained, including how much of a say unionist lawmakers in Northern Ireland would have over its future trading arrangements. That is the deadline imposed by a British law that would require him to seek another Brexit delay if, by then, he has neither the approval of British lawmakers for a deal, or for leaving without one — something a majority in Britain’s Parliament has consistently opposed.
Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, said a Brexit deal appeared possible, but it was not clear by when. Having promised that he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than postpone Britain’s Oct. 31 exit date, the heat is on Mr. Johnson to strike an agreement.
“The question is whether the negotiators will be able to bridge the remaining gaps in advance of tomorrow’s council,” he told Irish lawmakers on Wednesday. Under the pressure of that Saturday deadline, it seemed to be Britain that was making most of the compromises over the sensitive issue of how to handle the post-Brexit border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland, which will remain in the European Union.
Mark Landler and Stephen Castle contributed reporting. “Part of this is a calculation that Boris Johnson doesn’t want an extension, so they are pressuring him to make concessions,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, a consulting firm. Yet there is, he added, a risk that Mr. Johnson will be pushed too far.
“If the talks break down, no one wants to be left holding the can,” Mr. Rahman added, “this is all about stage management.”
The latest plan is thought to be a complex system that would keep Northern Ireland legally in the United Kingdom’s customs union, while applying the European Union’s trade rules. That would avoid the need for customs checks in Ireland — something that the Irish government opposes — but would involve a complicated system of rebates for Northern Irish traders, and could open new opportunities for smugglers.
Putting technicalities into a legal text is one challenge, but another is the question of how Northern Ireland would give its approval to be part of such a system. On Wednesday in Parliament, the D.U.P.’s Brexit spokesman, Sammy Wilson, expressed serious issues over the question of how that “consent” would be sought.
Mr. Rahman said that Mrs. May had, after objections from the D.U.P., rejected a plan for the Irish border similar to the one that Mr. Johnson has moved toward, saying it would isolate Northern Ireland and threaten the integrity of the United Kingdom. “May said no British prime minister could ever make that deal,” Mr. Rahman said.
But Mr. Johnson has more credibility with hard-line Brexit supporters than Mrs. May had, and he is promising them that his ultimate objective is a much looser relationship with the European Union.
Unlike Mrs. May, Mr. Johnson is said to have rejected the idea of keeping a “level playing field” on regulation with the European Union.
That stance has alarmed some European governments, who fear that Britain will try to undercut countries like France by cutting taxes and regulatory obligations on companies. But on Wednesday afternoon, European Union officials were reporting agreement on both issues, consent and the playing field.
Despite the complications, there was optimism from the Prime Minister Leo Varadkar of Ireland, who, after a brief phone call with Mr. Johnson, said he remained hopeful of a deal but added that there was work still to do.
“I am convinced that all parties are serious about getting an agreement by the end of this month,” he said in Dublin. But he added that “Oct. 31 is still a few weeks away and there is the possibility of an additional summit before that if we need one.”
That would not be a palatable prospect for Mr. Johnson, who badly needs something to take to Parliament on Saturday.
Benjamin Mueller contributed reporting from London.