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Tusk: 'foundations' of Brexit deal are ready but UK has late doubts Johnson seeks DUP backing in race against time over Brexit deal
(about 3 hours later)
Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said the “foundations” of a Brexit deal are ready for approval by EU leaders but that Brussels is waiting on Downing Street after late “doubts” in London. Boris Johnson is in a race against time to secure the Democratic Unionist Party’s backing for his newly negotiated Brexit deal as EU leaders said they were ready to approve the agreement on Thursday if the prime minister succeeds.
The deal due to be signed off by leaders at a summit on Thursday would involve the drawing of a regulatory and customs border down the Irish Sea and a vote for Stormont every four years on the arrangements, but the Democratic Unionist party is still objecting. Plans to publish a full legal text ahead of the leaders’ summit had to be put on hold to the frustration of EU officials after the DUP had raised a series of objections to the tentative agreement.
Boris Johnson told a meeting of Conservative MPs he was hopeful of a deal but it felt like he was on the Hillary Step of Everest, while the summit was “shrouded in mist”. With time short, Johnson told a meeting of Conservative MPs he was hopeful of a deal but it felt like he was on the Hillary Step of Everest, while the summit was “shrouded in mist”.
The prime minister appeared to have the party’s hardline Eurosceptics on board, including Steve Baker, who said Johnson had briefed them that the whole of the UK was leaving the customs union. But they added a note of caution that they could not vote for any Brexit deal without seeing a legal text. The prime minister appeared to have the party’s hardline Eurosceptics on board, including Steve Baker, who said Johnson had briefed them that the whole of the UK was leaving the customs union. But they also added a note of caution that they could not vote for any Brexit deal without seeing a legal text.
The hardline Eurosceptics seemed to be happy with Northern Ireland in alignment with the EU on customs and regulations if a deal could be sold as the whole of the UK officially leaving the customs union. Their main concern was that Johnson had promised them the UK would have an independent trade policy. An issue over VAT was said by Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, to be a last-minute obstacle in the negotiations when he briefed European ambassadors on Wednesday night. But the British objection was described by EU diplomats as a “British smokescreen” to give Downing Street more time to win over the unionist party’s leader, Arlene Foster.
However, the DUP made public its opposition to the terms of the tentative agreement with its leader, Arlene Foster, insisting further discussions were needed. Some of the 21 former Tories expelled from the parliamentary party by Johnson also have reservations that the agreement is too hard a Brexit for the UK, putting his chances of getting it through parliament on a knife edge. EU officials think Johnson could make a sudden move to seal the deal on Thursday morning. Earlier in the day, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, had said the “foundations” of a Brexit deal were in place and it was only last-minute “doubts” in London that stood in the way.
Tusk said it would be clear by the end of Wednesday whether Johnson had the political backing to go ahead with the revised withdrawal agreement and political declaration on the future relationship with the bloc. Under the agreement, Barnier told ambassadors that a regulatory and customs border would be drawn in the Irish sea.
He told the Polish broadcaster TVN24: “The basic foundations of an agreement are ready and theoretically tomorrow we could accept this deal with Great Britain. Northern Ireland would, however, legally be in the UK’s customs territory to allow the prime minister to boast that the country “whole and entire” has left the EU. A rebate system to refund businesses hit by tariffs on goods going between Northern Ireland and Great Britain would be put in place.
“Theoretically in seven to eight hours everything should be clear. I was hoping that this morning we would receive a complete negotiated legal text: the agreement. Barnier further explained that four years after the end of the transition period, the Northern Ireland assembly at Stormont would be able to give its continued consent to continuing the arrangements. The assembly would have to decide whether to vote by a simple majority or under a vote in which 40% of both nationalist and unionist assembly members would be required to give their assent.
“Yesterday evening I was ready to bet that it’s all set and agreed, today there are certain doubts on the British side.
“Everything is going in the right direction, but you will have noticed yourselves that with Brexit and above all with our British partners anything is possible.”
Speaking in Toulouse, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, appeared optimistic on the eve of the leaders’ summit in Brussels.
Macron said he “wanted to believe a deal is being finalised”. Merkel said the news from Brussels “could be worse” but that she would be updated later by the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.
Earlier in the day, Barnier had spoken of his optimism that a Brexit deal could be reached by the end of Wednesday.
Despite the last-minute threat posed by the DUP’s opposition to Downing Street’s plans, Barnier told Jean-Claude Juncker’s team of commissioners on Wednesday morning he believed a deal could be salvaged in the next few hours.
A key meeting of EU ambassadors with Barnier that was set for 1pm London time was pushed back to 4pm to allow extra time for Johnson to win over the unionist party. It was then delayed to 6pm, as talks in London continued with the DUP.
“We are still waiting for a signal from across the Channel,” said one EU diplomat. “A lot of things are happening between the cabinet, DUP and the hardest Brexiters.”
Inside the EU, both Ireland and Northern Ireland are part of the single market and customs union so share the same regulations and standards, allowing a soft or invisible border between the two.Inside the EU, both Ireland and Northern Ireland are part of the single market and customs union so share the same regulations and standards, allowing a soft or invisible border between the two.
Britain’s exit from the EU – taking Northern Ireland with it – risks a return to a hard or policed border. The only way to avoid this post-Brexit is for regulations on both sides to remain more or less the same in key areas including food, animal welfare, medicines and product safety.Britain’s exit from the EU – taking Northern Ireland with it – risks a return to a hard or policed border. The only way to avoid this post-Brexit is for regulations on both sides to remain more or less the same in key areas including food, animal welfare, medicines and product safety.
The 'backstop' in Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement was intended to address this - stating that if no future trade agreement could be reached between the EU and the UK, then rules and regulations would stay as they are. This has been rejected by Brexit supporters as a 'trap' to keep the UK in the EU's customs union, which would prevent the UK striking its own independent trade deals. The 'backstop' in Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement was intended to address this - stating that if no future trade agreement could be reached between the EU and the UK, then rules and regulations would stay as they are. This has been rejected by Brexit supporters as a 'trap' to keep the UK in the EU's customs union, which would prevent the UK striking its own independent trade deals. 
There are an estimated 72m road vehicle crossings a year between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and about 14% of those crossings are consignments of goods, some of which may cross the border several times before they reach a consumer. Brexit supporters say this can be managed by doing checks on goods away from the border, but critics say it will be difficult to police this without any physical infrastructure like border posts or cameras, which could raise tensions in the divided communities of Ireland. There are an estimated 72m road vehicle crossings a year between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and about 14% of those crossings are consignments of goods, some of which may cross the border several times before they reach a consumer. Brexit supporters say this can be managed by doing checks on goods away from the border, but critics say it will be difficult to police this without any physical infrastructure like border posts or cameras, which could raise tensions in the divided communities of Ireland. 
Interactive: A typical hour in the life of the Irish borderInteractive: A typical hour in the life of the Irish border
There would be another opportunity a further four years later to give consent if they voted by simple majority, and eight years later if they took the cross-party route. A two-year notice period would be granted if Northern Ireland exited the special relationship with the EU to allow alternative arrangements to be put in place.
Johnson has also made a major concession to secure a free-trade agreement with the EU. The prime minister had previously signalled he wanted to abandon a pledge to align to EU standards on environment, workers’ rights and tax, fuelling Brussels’ fears of a regulatory race to the bottom, or “Singapore on the Thames”.
Barnier told EU ambassadors he now had secured a basis for fair competition, as Johnson had agreed that the quid pro quo for any free-trade agreement would be signing up to the EU’s “level-playing field” provisions, meaning a promise not to ditch EU standards.
EU negotiators have long said these promises are vital, because of the UK’s economic weight and geographical proximity.
Barnier told the EU ambassadors the British cabinet had backed the agreement, but stressed huge uncertainty that parliament would give its approval. Several ambassadors voiced concern about the limited time, but there was no discussion of extension.
During a joint appearance with the German chancellor Angela Merkel, the French president Emmanuel Macron told reporters: “I think that a deal is just being finalised and we’re going to be able to work on that tomorrow.”
Tusk had said that he had hoped that a deal would have been ready by Wednesday morning but that agreement was still possible. “Yesterday evening I was ready to bet that it’s all set and agreed, today there are certain doubts on the British side,” he said. “Everything is going in the right direction, but you will have noticed yourselves that with Brexit and above all with our British partners anything is possible.”
“We are still waiting for a signal from across the Channel,” said one EU diplomat. “A lot of things are happening between the cabinet, DUP and the hardest Brexiters.”
Despite the prospect of a deal being struck in Brussels, EU sources said the prime minister’s pledge to leave the EU on 31 October, “do or die”, remained in doubt even if an agreement was secured.Despite the prospect of a deal being struck in Brussels, EU sources said the prime minister’s pledge to leave the EU on 31 October, “do or die”, remained in doubt even if an agreement was secured.
EU diplomats said the last-minute nature of the talks meant that time would be required after the summit for governments and parliaments to scrutinise the legal text of the deal.EU diplomats said the last-minute nature of the talks meant that time would be required after the summit for governments and parliaments to scrutinise the legal text of the deal.
The European Research Group (ERG) is a research support group for Conservative MPs who oppose the UK's membership of the European Union. It was formed in 1993 as a response to the Maastricht Treaty which reformed the European Economic Community as the European Community.
The group is part-funded by subscriptions paid out of MPs’ parliamentary expenses, and is currently chaired by MP Steve Baker, with Mark Francois as his deputy. Jacob Rees-Mogg was previously chair. 
The group publishes research and reports on the UK's membership of the EU, although it is secretive about its work, and does not even issue a list of members.
As a result, the EU’s leaders will only give their political rather than full formal agreement to the deal when they meet on Thursday and Friday.As a result, the EU’s leaders will only give their political rather than full formal agreement to the deal when they meet on Thursday and Friday.
The EU27 will then want the Commons, in its “super Saturday” session, to give its assent to the revised withdrawal agreement and political declaration.The EU27 will then want the Commons, in its “super Saturday” session, to give its assent to the revised withdrawal agreement and political declaration.
Final EU agreement would be given at a later date, likely at a second summit on 29 October, once the member states had time to work through the legal text. Sources in Berlin have suggested that process could take as long as two months.Final EU agreement would be given at a later date, likely at a second summit on 29 October, once the member states had time to work through the legal text. Sources in Berlin have suggested that process could take as long as two months.
“It is clear that there can only be a political agreement tomorrow or Friday because we cannot see any text. We cannot say ‘yes’ without legal scrubbing,” a diplomat said. “We need much more time.”“It is clear that there can only be a political agreement tomorrow or Friday because we cannot see any text. We cannot say ‘yes’ without legal scrubbing,” a diplomat said. “We need much more time.”
Brexit deal back from the brink – Politics Weekly podcast
The diplomat added that the leaders would require “clarity from the House of Commons on Saturday because we’ve had three deals before”.The diplomat added that the leaders would require “clarity from the House of Commons on Saturday because we’ve had three deals before”.
“This is the fourth time they want clarity from the UK side,” the diplomat added. “We won’t continue with legal scrubbing and translations to end up with something that is going to be voted down. There is a clear desire for an outcome in London that shows support.”“This is the fourth time they want clarity from the UK side,” the diplomat added. “We won’t continue with legal scrubbing and translations to end up with something that is going to be voted down. There is a clear desire for an outcome in London that shows support.”
A second diplomat said the EU “wanted guarantees”. “Will there be a vote that will show there is a majority for a deal?” the source added.A second diplomat said the EU “wanted guarantees”. “Will there be a vote that will show there is a majority for a deal?” the source added.
The European Research Group (ERG) is a research support group for Conservative MPs who oppose the UK's membership of the European Union. It was formed in 1993 as a response to the Maastricht Treaty which reformed the European Economic Community as the European Community.
The group is part-funded by subscriptions paid out of MPs’ parliamentary expenses, and is currently chaired by MP Steve Baker, with Mark Francois as his deputy. Jacob Rees-Mogg was previously chair. 
The group publishes research and reports on the UK's membership of the EU, although it is secretive about its work, and does not even issue a list of members.
Under the deal being negotiated, Northern Ireland would not be part of the EU’s customs territory, but the bloc’s full customs code would have to be enforced between it and Great Britain.
“Northern Ireland would de jure be in the UK’s customs territory but de facto in the European Union’s,” one diplomatic source said of the tentative agreement.
Brexit deal back from the brink – Politics Weekly podcast
Beyond the DUP’s issues with the deal, it is understood the talks between British and EU negotiators have run into trouble on the issue of level-playing-field guarantees.
The guarantees are promises to maintain EU standards on the environment, tax and state aid to prevent Britain from undercutting the EU for a competitive advantage.
The guarantees are part of the political declaration agreed by Theresa May, which sets out the broad terms for future free trade agreement talks, but Johnson’s chief adviser has sought to have the reference removed from the text.
A diplomat said EU leaders would not agree to the revised withdrawal agreement separate to the political declaration.
BrexitBrexit
European UnionEuropean Union
Boris JohnsonBoris Johnson
EuropeEurope
Northern IrelandNorthern Ireland
IrelandIreland
ConservativesConservatives
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