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Brexit: Irish PM hints extra EU summit might be needed because 'many issues' still to be resolved– live news Brexit: Irish PM hints extra EU summit might be needed because 'many issues' still to be resolved– live news
(30 minutes later)
When Theresa May was prime minister she told MPs that she was opposed to the EU’s original plan for a Northern Ireland-only backstop because no British prime minister could accept a customs border of that kind down the Irish Sea. The quote will come back to haunt her if Boris Johnson does negotiate a deal that would in practice keep Northern Ireland in the customs union. May told MPs in February 2018:
The draft legal text the commission have published would, if implemented, undermine the UK common market and threaten the constitutional integrity of the UK by creating a customs and regulatory border down the Irish Sea, and no UK prime minster could ever agree to it.
Boris Johnson faces the same problem because, as the People’s Vote campaign points out, he also said that no Conservative government could sign up to a plan that would impose customs controls between Britain and Northern Ireland. What makes this particularly awkward for him is that he made this comment in a speech to the DUP annual conference in November 2018. He said:
If we wanted to do free trade deals, if we wanted to cut tariffs ... if we wanted to vary our regulation then we would have to leave Northern Ireland behind as an economic semi-colony of the EU and we would be damaging the fabric of the union with regulatory checks and even customs controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland – on top of those extra regulatory checks down the Irish Sea that are already envisaged in the withdrawal agreement.
Now I have to tell you, no British Conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement.
Here is the clip.
REVEALED: In 2018 Boris Johnson admits that 'no Conservative government' could sign up to a border in the Irish Sea. But that's exactly what his hard Brexit proposal does. No one can trust Boris Johnson to solve the #Brexit crisis. Only the people can: https://t.co/Q3yda24SQF pic.twitter.com/RhffGzTWj8
You might be tempted to see this as another Boris Johnson Brexit lie (see 3.36pm), but breaking a promise is not the same as saying something you know to be untrue (although both are offences against trust).
Here is the full version of what Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, said in remarks broadcast on TV about the Brexit talks.
Theoretically in seven to eight hours everything should be clear.
It is still undergoing changes and the basic foundations of this agreement are ready and theoretically we could accept a deal tomorrow ...
Yesterday evening I was ready to bet on it ... today again certain doubts have appeared from the British side ...
Everything is going in the right direction, but you will have noticed yourselves that with Brexit and above all with our British partners anything is possible.
And here is the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg on cabinet.
Cabinet not briefed on full contents of a deal cos it isn't done yet - mood was 'steady as she goes', one of those present said
They did however discuss the plan to hold a Saturday sitting for MPs, and putting down a resolution to make that happen tomorrow
From RTE’s Tony Connelly
New: Barnier briefing of EU27 ambassadors has been postponed again from 17hr to 19hr
This afternoon’s cabinet is over. Sky’s Beth Rigby has some lines from ministers as they were coming out.
Coming out of cabinet Alun Cairns said there was still a long way to go. Robert Jenrick also said there was some way to go. Villiers said work to do but added that she thought agreement could be reached by Summit. Going to the wire isn’t it
Cabinet.... David Frost still in the tunnel so no full briefing on deal. XO cttee apparently know but not the rest. - AG Cox was upbeat- Meanwhile PM apparently said he thought DUP would be fine & NI will be in UK CU. Raab said should sell this as a win win for GB & NI 1/
Cabinet cont.... - More discussion on the Pol declaration. Issues around the ‘level playing field’ commitments. PM well aware of those concerns- So no Cabinet sign off as deal still in the making (or not). They’ll have to have another meet/call b4 summit IF deal across line
Ipsos MORI has also published some polling on Brexit today. Its headline finding is that the people think a no-deal Brexit is more likely than an election, a deal, a second referendum or the UK staying in the EU.Ipsos MORI has also published some polling on Brexit today. Its headline finding is that the people think a no-deal Brexit is more likely than an election, a deal, a second referendum or the UK staying in the EU.
But what is likely to attrack most interest at Westminster is what the polling says about party leaders and Brexit. When voters are asked if they are satisfied with how Boris Johnson is handling Brexit, he gets a net satisfaction rating of -9 (satisfied minus dissatisfied). That is not great, but it is better than his ratings in August and September.But what is likely to attrack most interest at Westminster is what the polling says about party leaders and Brexit. When voters are asked if they are satisfied with how Boris Johnson is handling Brexit, he gets a net satisfaction rating of -9 (satisfied minus dissatisfied). That is not great, but it is better than his ratings in August and September.
However, it is far better than Jeremy Corbyn’s rating on the same measure. His net Brexit satisfaction score is -57. Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, is on -33 and Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, is on -23.However, it is far better than Jeremy Corbyn’s rating on the same measure. His net Brexit satisfaction score is -57. Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, is on -33 and Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, is on -23.
Johnson even beats Corbyn when people are asked if they trust leaders to tell the truth. He has a three-point lead over Corbyn on ‘tells the truth in general’ (22% over 19%) and an eight-point lead over Corbyn on ‘tells the truth about Brexit’ (23% over 15%). Johnson even beats Corbyn when people are asked if they trust leaders to tell the truth. He has a three-point lead over Corbyn on “tells the truth in general” (22% over 19%) and an eight-point lead over Corbyn on “tells the truth about Brexit” (23% over 15%).
This is remarkable because it is very hard to square with any reasonable assessment of the two men’s honesty. Johnson has twice been sacked from jobs for lying, and he is widely seen as someone who is cavalier about the truth. He was described as “the father of lies” recently in no less a venue than the supreme court. By contrast, at Westminster Corbyn is generally seen as someone who is not prone to dissembling and who finds it hard to say something he does not mean.This is remarkable because it is very hard to square with any reasonable assessment of the two men’s honesty. Johnson has twice been sacked from jobs for lying, and he is widely seen as someone who is cavalier about the truth. He was described as “the father of lies” recently in no less a venue than the supreme court. By contrast, at Westminster Corbyn is generally seen as someone who is not prone to dissembling and who finds it hard to say something he does not mean.
These figures also suggest that the entire, ongoing three-year demolition of Johnson’s “We send the EU £350m a week” claim by the fact-checking lobby has been in vain.These figures also suggest that the entire, ongoing three-year demolition of Johnson’s “We send the EU £350m a week” claim by the fact-checking lobby has been in vain.
One explanation for Corbyn’s appalling performance on this measure might be that voters detect the inherent contradiction in a lifelong opponent of the EU leading a pro-European party (although, to be fair, Corbyn has never pretended to be a huge fan of EU membership). Another explanation might be that these figures are a consequence of Corbyn’s overall approval ratings being lower than Johnson’s.One explanation for Corbyn’s appalling performance on this measure might be that voters detect the inherent contradiction in a lifelong opponent of the EU leading a pro-European party (although, to be fair, Corbyn has never pretended to be a huge fan of EU membership). Another explanation might be that these figures are a consequence of Corbyn’s overall approval ratings being lower than Johnson’s.
Here is the full quote from Donald Tusk, president of the European council.Here is the full quote from Donald Tusk, president of the European council.
Theoretically in seven to eight hours everything should be clear.Theoretically in seven to eight hours everything should be clear.
Tusk was speaking to journalists in comments broadcast on private news channel TVN 24.Tusk was speaking to journalists in comments broadcast on private news channel TVN 24.
Veteran Brexit observers will know that whenever anyone sets a deadline in this process, it tends to be missed. In fact, you don’t have to be a veteran Brexit watcher; anyone reading this blog only yesterday will recall Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, being quoted as saying that the UK and the EU would have to agree legal text by last night for a deal to be possible at this week’s summit. That legal text has still not been finalised, but the negotiators have not given up hope of there being some agreement at the EU summit.Veteran Brexit observers will know that whenever anyone sets a deadline in this process, it tends to be missed. In fact, you don’t have to be a veteran Brexit watcher; anyone reading this blog only yesterday will recall Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, being quoted as saying that the UK and the EU would have to agree legal text by last night for a deal to be possible at this week’s summit. That legal text has still not been finalised, but the negotiators have not given up hope of there being some agreement at the EU summit.
From Sky NewsFrom Sky News
European Council President Donald Tusk says it should be known in seven to eight hours when Brexit could happenEuropean Council President Donald Tusk says it should be known in seven to eight hours when Brexit could happen
Here is the full text of Leo Varadkar’s statement to Irish MPs about the EU summit starting tomorrow.Here is the full text of Leo Varadkar’s statement to Irish MPs about the EU summit starting tomorrow.
The Irish taoiseach (PM) said he still thought a Brexit deal was possible, but he could not say when. Here is the key passage.The Irish taoiseach (PM) said he still thought a Brexit deal was possible, but he could not say when. Here is the key passage.
I do not think it would be helpful today to say too much about the precise state of play of the discussions or the exact timeframe in which an agreement may be possible.I do not think it would be helpful today to say too much about the precise state of play of the discussions or the exact timeframe in which an agreement may be possible.
I said last week that I thought that there was a pathway to a possible agreement. That is still my view. However, the question is whether the negotiators will be able to bridge the remaining gaps in advance of tomorrow’s council. What’s important now is that all focus is kept on achieving a deal that delivers for everyone.I said last week that I thought that there was a pathway to a possible agreement. That is still my view. However, the question is whether the negotiators will be able to bridge the remaining gaps in advance of tomorrow’s council. What’s important now is that all focus is kept on achieving a deal that delivers for everyone.
This is from Sky’s Stephen Murphy.This is from Sky’s Stephen Murphy.
New: Taoiseach @LeoVaradkar tells the Dail (Irish parliament) he still sees pathway to #brexit deal but that there are issues still to be resolved: consent [of the people of NI] and customsNew: Taoiseach @LeoVaradkar tells the Dail (Irish parliament) he still sees pathway to #brexit deal but that there are issues still to be resolved: consent [of the people of NI] and customs
From Reuters’ Peter Thal LarsenFrom Reuters’ Peter Thal Larsen
Currency markets seem to think @tconnellyRTE is twice as credible as @DUPleader. Pound jumped 0.8% following Connelly's tweet, but only dropped 0.4% after Foster's denial.https://t.co/rNAoR0N3bThttps://t.co/SNVSLZGMwc pic.twitter.com/HRloMmg7x1Currency markets seem to think @tconnellyRTE is twice as credible as @DUPleader. Pound jumped 0.8% following Connelly's tweet, but only dropped 0.4% after Foster's denial.https://t.co/rNAoR0N3bThttps://t.co/SNVSLZGMwc pic.twitter.com/HRloMmg7x1
Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, has dismissed the report from RTÉ’s Tony Connelly (see 1.28pm) saying her party has agreed to what is being proposed on consent.
'EU sources' are talking nonsense. Discussions continue. Needs to be a sensible deal which unionists and nationalists can support. https://t.co/CpugVBfyBZ
On the World at One Andrew Bridgen, one of the 28 Tory “Spartans” who voted against Theresa May’s deal three times, said he thought the pro-remain opposition would try to seize control of the Commons timetable for Saturday to allow MPs to vote for a referendum on any Brexit deal secured by Boris Johnson. He said:
What they want is to humiliate the prime minister by preventing him from even bringing forward a vote on his deal, and forcing him to send the letter in line with the Benn act ... They may well bring forward a confirmatory referendum which, in my view, would be disastrous.
Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Commons Brexit committee, was interviewed on the programme immediately after Bridgen. Asked if he knew whether what Bridgen was saying about opposition plans was correct, Benn at first did not answer the question directly. But he did say, if there were an agreement, he would expect to see it brought to the Commons on Saturday. When the presenter, Sarah Montague, asked a second time whether Bridgen was right, Benn replied:
There are many MPs who are in favour of a confirmatory referendum, as am I. If the government brings a deal before the house on Saturday, then it would not surprise me at all if an effort were made to say, OK, but subject to a confirmatory referendum. That is not a surprise to anyone given the growing support that there is for that idea.
Asked whether that would involve opposition MPs trying to take control of the order paper (by using standing order 24), as opposed to just tabling a confirmatory referendum amendment, Benn said that would depend on how the government planned to organise the vote for Saturday.
Earlier I quoted some ComRes polling claiming that more than half of voters want the UK to leave the EU. Other pollsters have criticised the way ComRes presented those findings, arguing that it was misleading because people were asked to choose between three options, not two. I have posted an updated at 9.56am explaining this. You may need to refresh the page to get it to appear.
It wouldn’t be Brexit if we didn’t have a contrary view. This is from the Atlantic’s Tom McTague.
Understand this is premature and news to Downing Street: no DUP agreement on consent yet, per senior UK official (though it might happen, of course). Now at *very* delicate stage https://t.co/c4g9CtRfV4
From RTÉ’s Tony Connelly
BREAKING: two senior EU sources say the main stumbling block to a deal has been removed with the DUP accepting the latest proposals on consent... Optimism a deal can now be done...
A fresh legal challenge to prevent the prime minister crashing out of the EU without a deal is to be heard in the London courts on Friday, the civil rights organisation Liberty has revealed.
The judicial review action, similar to the case already heard in Edinburgh, is an attempt to ensure that Boris Johnson respects the Benn act and seeks an extension to UK membership in the absence of an agreement with Brussels.
The case is due to be heard on Friday before three senior judges in the court of appeal. As well as Liberty, the Independent Workers’ Union of Great Britain (IWGB) has also submitted an application on behalf of three low-paid workers who, it is said, will suffer if there is a no-deal Brexit.
Confirmation of the hearing signals a fresh round of Brexit-related legal battles in the courts. The Scottish hearing has effectively been stayed pending the outcome of this week’s negotiations with the EU.
The Benn act, passed with the support of Labour and the broader rebel alliance in parliament, states that the government must ask the EU for an extension if MPs do not approve a Brexit deal by 19 October.
Liberty launched its action last month after Johnson said he would flout the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 2) Act (also known as the “Benn act”). The English courts have been significantly slower than their Scottish counterparts in agreeing to hear the claim.
In her speech the former prime minister Theresa May said she was “a little concerned” by reports that the government will have different immigration rules for different regions of the country after Brexit. She said the idea that visas could be issued on condition that people went to work in a particular part of the country sounded like a system for “regional visas”. She went on:
I would urge [Priti Patel, the home secretary] to look very carefully at how that can operate logistically because it has some very real challenges. And, indeed, I hear from the SNP benches some muttering that it is an issue that has been rejected in the past by the independent migration advisory committee.
In the opening of her speech Theresa May said government should not just be about positive headlines and great oratory, PoliticsHome’s Matt Honeycombe-Foster reports.
THERESA MAY KLAXON. She's speaking in the Queen's Speech debate.Says government is not "about headlines"."You can have the best headlines and the greatest oratory and the most arresting phrases but they're of no use if they don't actually, practically deliver for people." pic.twitter.com/20O8qKddsL
That will obviously be seen as a dig at her successor, Boris Johnson, who is far better than May ever was at coining “arresting phrases”.
From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg
No sense of imminent breakthrough after DUP meeting - still gaps and concerns, and not just on what happens around the border.. feels like long hard day for all concerned
Foster staying in London tho, so talks in all directions are still going on...far from resolution, but far from over too
The Times’s Brussels correspondent Bruno Waterfield has posted a useful Twitter thread on the state of play in the Brexit talks. It starts here.
Hiccups in the Brexit talks which could go to the wire as late 5.30pm or so. Best case scenario is political agreement at #EUCO which means Brexit almost certainly will not happen on Oct 31