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Here We Go Again Debate Night: What I’ll Be Watching For
(about 3 hours later)
This article is part of David Leonhardt’s newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it each weekday.This article is part of David Leonhardt’s newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it each weekday.
Tonight, 12 Democratic candidates will be debating near Columbus, Ohio. Here’s what I’ll be looking for from the seven candidates with the best chances of winning the nomination:Tonight, 12 Democratic candidates will be debating near Columbus, Ohio. Here’s what I’ll be looking for from the seven candidates with the best chances of winning the nomination:
Elizabeth Warren. Swing voters exist, and they are likely to decide the 2020 election, much as they played a decisive role in 2016 and 2018. So far, Warren has not worried much about appealing to them. Now that she’s the front-runner, can she begin to signal to Democrats that she wants to be ruthless about beating President Trump?Elizabeth Warren. Swing voters exist, and they are likely to decide the 2020 election, much as they played a decisive role in 2016 and 2018. So far, Warren has not worried much about appealing to them. Now that she’s the front-runner, can she begin to signal to Democrats that she wants to be ruthless about beating President Trump?
Joe Biden. He has yet to seem sharp for an entire debate. Can he break that streak and alleviate concerns about his ability to withstand a long, vicious campaign? I’m more interested in that than the narrow questions of how he responds to Trump’s false smears against his family.Joe Biden. He has yet to seem sharp for an entire debate. Can he break that streak and alleviate concerns about his ability to withstand a long, vicious campaign? I’m more interested in that than the narrow questions of how he responds to Trump’s false smears against his family.
Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. They are the best-positioned candidates to benefit from Biden’s uneven campaign and win over more moderate Democrats. Can any of the three make an explicit case: I’m stronger than Biden and more electable than Warren?Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. They are the best-positioned candidates to benefit from Biden’s uneven campaign and win over more moderate Democrats. Can any of the three make an explicit case: I’m stronger than Biden and more electable than Warren?
Kamala Harris. Her campaign has too often seemed aimless and error prone. Can she make a clear case for why she wants to be president?Kamala Harris. Her campaign has too often seemed aimless and error prone. Can she make a clear case for why she wants to be president?
Bernie Sanders. Arguably no one has had a bigger influence on the Democratic Party in recent years, but his campaign felt stagnant even before his heart attack. Does he have any way to mount a comeback, or is he remaining in the race mostly to shape the agenda?Bernie Sanders. Arguably no one has had a bigger influence on the Democratic Party in recent years, but his campaign felt stagnant even before his heart attack. Does he have any way to mount a comeback, or is he remaining in the race mostly to shape the agenda?
For more …For more …
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: “Each of the three leading candidates in the polls have new factors to deal with. This is Biden’s opportunity to respond to Ukraine, to Hunter Biden, to impeachment. … Elizabeth Warren has to deal for the first time with the perception that she is the frontrunner. … Bernie Sanders had a heart attack since the past debate, and so people are going to be interested in how frankly healthy and vigorous he seems [or] is he moving into a stage where he is changing his strategy maybe to be more … valedictory?”Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: “Each of the three leading candidates in the polls have new factors to deal with. This is Biden’s opportunity to respond to Ukraine, to Hunter Biden, to impeachment. … Elizabeth Warren has to deal for the first time with the perception that she is the frontrunner. … Bernie Sanders had a heart attack since the past debate, and so people are going to be interested in how frankly healthy and vigorous he seems [or] is he moving into a stage where he is changing his strategy maybe to be more … valedictory?”
Frank Bruni, The Times: “At the debate this coming Tuesday night, [Warren’s opponents] should grill her — and one another — with less delicacy than they have exhibited to date.”Frank Bruni, The Times: “At the debate this coming Tuesday night, [Warren’s opponents] should grill her — and one another — with less delicacy than they have exhibited to date.”
Karen Nussbaum, of the A.F.L.-C.I.O.’s political arm, describing a poll of working-class voters in Ohio: “What we’ve found is that when candidates focus on bread-and-butter issues, they are on the right track. Our undecided group ranked as their top issue jobs and the income gap, followed by health care and Social Security.”Karen Nussbaum, of the A.F.L.-C.I.O.’s political arm, describing a poll of working-class voters in Ohio: “What we’ve found is that when candidates focus on bread-and-butter issues, they are on the right track. Our undecided group ranked as their top issue jobs and the income gap, followed by health care and Social Security.”
Harry Enten, CNN: “Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke are all in deep danger of not making November’s debate. That means Tuesday may be the last chance for those four to give their campaigns a realistic chance to have a measure of success.”Harry Enten, CNN: “Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke are all in deep danger of not making November’s debate. That means Tuesday may be the last chance for those four to give their campaigns a realistic chance to have a measure of success.”
Lisa Lerer, The Times: “So far, most of [Pete Butttigieg’s] debate performances have been characterized by ‘West Wing’-style monologues. But there are signs he may pivot to a more aggressive tack Tuesday night in hopes of expanding his support. In recent weeks, he has nudged Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders on health care.”Lisa Lerer, The Times: “So far, most of [Pete Butttigieg’s] debate performances have been characterized by ‘West Wing’-style monologues. But there are signs he may pivot to a more aggressive tack Tuesday night in hopes of expanding his support. In recent weeks, he has nudged Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders on health care.”
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Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.