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| Brexit: Rees-Mogg tells MPs he cannot confirm if Saturday sitting going ahead as EU talks still unresolved - live news | Brexit: Rees-Mogg tells MPs he cannot confirm if Saturday sitting going ahead as EU talks still unresolved - live news |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| But other EU experts are picking up more negative indications. The BBC’s Europe editor, Katya Adler, has posted a detailed Twitter thread on the Brexit talks. It starts here. | |
| Effectively -despite all the noise - the state of #Brexit negotiations has NOT really changed in last three days or so:i) Much as there is huge political will in EU to get Brexit deal done.. /1 | |
| And here are her conclusions. | |
| viii) Brexit deal deadline this week is fake deadline for EU. Current Brexit extension runs out 31 Oct. There’s EU talk of new Brexit emergency summit end of month but beforehand could come a UK request for new extension /12 | |
| 3month extension seen in EU as far more realistic to get new Brexit deal done. It’s true France is reluctant BUT would Paris REALLY say no to extension request? EU wishlist in priority order: Avoid no deal Brexit if poss, then get legally operable agreed Brexit deal asap /13 | |
| ix) Depressing reminder: this merry-go-round/ political roller-coaster is about Leaving. This was supposed to be the easy bit. The really hard part comes after: hammering out post Brexit EU-UK relations esp the trade part.. /14 | |
| Bloomberg is reporting that UK and EU negotiators are “closing in on a draft Brexit deal”. This is from Bloomberg’s Paul Dobson. | |
| U.K. and EU negotiators in Brussels are closing in on a draft Brexit deal with optimism that there will be a breakthrough before the end of Tuesday, according to two EU officials https://t.co/vqdcE8cfjX via @bpolitics | |
| The pound has gone up following the publication of this story. | |
| The pound surges after sources tell Bloomberg that negotiators in Brussels are closing in on a draft Brexit deal https://t.co/xeMiQcOlMd pic.twitter.com/tJ6L1OHc20 | |
| In Aberdeen Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is delivering her speech to the SNP conference. | |
| I will post a summary when I’ve read the full text. | |
| This is from ITV’s Paul Brand. | This is from ITV’s Paul Brand. |
| NEW: Understand civil service chief Sir Mark Sedwill has advised No10 that it would be virtually impossible to hold an election this year any later than 12th Dec. After that practicalities are horrendous - school halls etc booked up for Christmas so no space for polling booths. | NEW: Understand civil service chief Sir Mark Sedwill has advised No10 that it would be virtually impossible to hold an election this year any later than 12th Dec. After that practicalities are horrendous - school halls etc booked up for Christmas so no space for polling booths. |
| My colleague Ben Quinn published a good story yesterday explaining why a December polling day would cause such problems for election administrators. | My colleague Ben Quinn published a good story yesterday explaining why a December polling day would cause such problems for election administrators. |
| Uncertainty over UK general election date hikes up organising costs | Uncertainty over UK general election date hikes up organising costs |
| PoliticsHome’s Alain Tolhurst says the Sedwill advice would mean that, unless MPs vote for an election by the end of next week, we could be waiting until February for an election. | PoliticsHome’s Alain Tolhurst says the Sedwill advice would mean that, unless MPs vote for an election by the end of next week, we could be waiting until February for an election. |
| Realistically that means a vote under FTPA before October 24. Doesn't seem very likely, in which case we could be waiting until February-ish for the election https://t.co/24fLGSwBkE | Realistically that means a vote under FTPA before October 24. Doesn't seem very likely, in which case we could be waiting until February-ish for the election https://t.co/24fLGSwBkE |
| Here is a useful Twitter thread on Brexit from Mujtaba Rahman, the Brexit analyst for the Eurasia consultancy. It starts here. | Here is a useful Twitter thread on Brexit from Mujtaba Rahman, the Brexit analyst for the Eurasia consultancy. It starts here. |
| So I hate to be a #Brexit downer. But signals I am getting this morning from very well placed EU sources is much, much more cautious. Odds of a deal this week - basically zero. Odds of a deal by 31 October? "1%". Why? For all the improved atmospherics, substance is BIG problem 1/ pic.twitter.com/Q5XAL5m23J | So I hate to be a #Brexit downer. But signals I am getting this morning from very well placed EU sources is much, much more cautious. Odds of a deal this week - basically zero. Odds of a deal by 31 October? "1%". Why? For all the improved atmospherics, substance is BIG problem 1/ pic.twitter.com/Q5XAL5m23J |
| Here are two of his tweets. | Here are two of his tweets. |
| official says "Good intentions are no good. We need a legally robust text." The discussions I've had suggest a deal at the Council is basically zero. "Can @MichelBarnier report substantial progress? At the moment not." Most likely outcome seems to be one whereby Council will 6/ | official says "Good intentions are no good. We need a legally robust text." The discussions I've had suggest a deal at the Council is basically zero. "Can @MichelBarnier report substantial progress? At the moment not." Most likely outcome seems to be one whereby Council will 6/ |
| give Barnier instruction to keep negotiating. Perhaps another Council at end of month as I've argued for some time. But folks I'm talking to - well placed - even sceptical a deal can be done by 31 Oct. So we're looking at full implementation of Benn Act & 3 month A50 extension 7/ | give Barnier instruction to keep negotiating. Perhaps another Council at end of month as I've argued for some time. But folks I'm talking to - well placed - even sceptical a deal can be done by 31 Oct. So we're looking at full implementation of Benn Act & 3 month A50 extension 7/ |
| And here is his conclusion. | And here is his conclusion. |
| could be in 5-10 range. Ministers took heart when 19 Lab backbenchers called for 2016 ref to be honoured "without delay." But does not mean the 19 will vote for any deal. BOTTOM LINE: a very BIG note of caution. Many on EU side still see delay as much more likely than deal ENDS | could be in 5-10 range. Ministers took heart when 19 Lab backbenchers called for 2016 ref to be honoured "without delay." But does not mean the 19 will vote for any deal. BOTTOM LINE: a very BIG note of caution. Many on EU side still see delay as much more likely than deal ENDS |
| Boris Johnson has actually won a vote in the House of Commons. It was on a statutory instrument relating to air quality (pdf), and the government won by 280 votes to 204 – a majority of 76. | Boris Johnson has actually won a vote in the House of Commons. It was on a statutory instrument relating to air quality (pdf), and the government won by 280 votes to 204 – a majority of 76. |
| There was some merriment in the Commons as the result was announced because this was such an unusual event. “I realise this is a unique moment,” said Eleanor Laing, the deputy Speaker, who was in the chair. | There was some merriment in the Commons as the result was announced because this was such an unusual event. “I realise this is a unique moment,” said Eleanor Laing, the deputy Speaker, who was in the chair. |
| Johnson has been prime minister for almost three months now and that was the first proper vote he has won in the Commons. | Johnson has been prime minister for almost three months now and that was the first proper vote he has won in the Commons. |
| Technically he has won one other vote, on an amendment to the Benn Act designed to give MPs a vote on the Theresa May Brexit plan. But that amendment, which was defeated by 495 votes to 65, was opposed by Labour MPs as well as by most Tories, and so it was not a government v opposition contest. | Technically he has won one other vote, on an amendment to the Benn Act designed to give MPs a vote on the Theresa May Brexit plan. But that amendment, which was defeated by 495 votes to 65, was opposed by Labour MPs as well as by most Tories, and so it was not a government v opposition contest. |
| In an interview with Emma Barnett on Radio 5 Live Amber Rudd, the former Tory cabinet minister who now sits as an independent after resigning the whip over Brexit, said she saw “a whiff of sexism” in the way some Brexiter Tories were supporting Boris Johnson after they forced Theresa May out of power. She explained: | In an interview with Emma Barnett on Radio 5 Live Amber Rudd, the former Tory cabinet minister who now sits as an independent after resigning the whip over Brexit, said she saw “a whiff of sexism” in the way some Brexiter Tories were supporting Boris Johnson after they forced Theresa May out of power. She explained: |
| There are certain behaviours that particularly men in politics want to see, that women don’t so much, that Boris [Johnson] did adopt, which has given the ERG [European Research Group] members a lot of confidence. | There are certain behaviours that particularly men in politics want to see, that women don’t so much, that Boris [Johnson] did adopt, which has given the ERG [European Research Group] members a lot of confidence. |
| For instance, I was very opposed to the prime minister expelling 21 colleagues from the party as members of parliament, and I felt very strongly that Ken Clarke, who had been in Margaret Thatcher’s cabinet, should have a place in Boris Johnson’s party. But [Johnson] took a different view, and I thought that was a very aggressive thing to do, and unnecessary, and has had the effect of radicalising the 21 - which I have now joined. | For instance, I was very opposed to the prime minister expelling 21 colleagues from the party as members of parliament, and I felt very strongly that Ken Clarke, who had been in Margaret Thatcher’s cabinet, should have a place in Boris Johnson’s party. But [Johnson] took a different view, and I thought that was a very aggressive thing to do, and unnecessary, and has had the effect of radicalising the 21 - which I have now joined. |
| That sort of aggressive behaviour, though, may be the sort of thing that a group of ERG men, particularly, wanted to see. | That sort of aggressive behaviour, though, may be the sort of thing that a group of ERG men, particularly, wanted to see. |
| In the interview Rudd also said she had not yet decided whether or not she will stand as an independent candidate at the the next election in a new constituency. She has already ruled out standing again in Hastings and Rye, where she had a majority of just 346 at the last election. | In the interview Rudd also said she had not yet decided whether or not she will stand as an independent candidate at the the next election in a new constituency. She has already ruled out standing again in Hastings and Rye, where she had a majority of just 346 at the last election. |
| From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg | From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg |
| Number 10 has been briefing different groups of MPs today on state of play - not on anything like final shape of a deal, they, like everyone else waiting to see what comes out of Brussels later | Number 10 has been briefing different groups of MPs today on state of play - not on anything like final shape of a deal, they, like everyone else waiting to see what comes out of Brussels later |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, has delivered a short business statement. We thought he might announce details of the sitting planned for Saturday, but instead he just announced that after the Queen’s speech debate tomorrow there will be a short debate under section 3(2) of the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation Act). | Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, has delivered a short business statement. We thought he might announce details of the sitting planned for Saturday, but instead he just announced that after the Queen’s speech debate tomorrow there will be a short debate under section 3(2) of the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation Act). |
| Tony Lloyd, the shadow Northern Ireland secretary, asked if Rees-Mogg could clarify what would happen on Saturday. | Tony Lloyd, the shadow Northern Ireland secretary, asked if Rees-Mogg could clarify what would happen on Saturday. |
| Rees-Mogg said a Saturday sitting would be a very rare occurrence. He said he could not announce plans for one yet because that would be dependent on the outcome of talks that are still taking place. | Rees-Mogg said a Saturday sitting would be a very rare occurrence. He said he could not announce plans for one yet because that would be dependent on the outcome of talks that are still taking place. |
| From my colleague Jennifer Rankin | From my colleague Jennifer Rankin |
| Westminsterisation Noun, to be mired in Brexit.Usage: Paris fears EU reforms will be blocked by an uncontrollable European parliament in the process of Westminsterisation.Origins: French official @AFP 2019Synonyms: chaos, crisis, stalemate pic.twitter.com/PsKqbhQfwD | Westminsterisation Noun, to be mired in Brexit.Usage: Paris fears EU reforms will be blocked by an uncontrollable European parliament in the process of Westminsterisation.Origins: French official @AFP 2019Synonyms: chaos, crisis, stalemate pic.twitter.com/PsKqbhQfwD |
| A no-deal Brexit could “erode” the international reputation of British universities, according to the credit rating agency S&P, by cutting them off from EU staff and research activity. It says: | A no-deal Brexit could “erode” the international reputation of British universities, according to the credit rating agency S&P, by cutting them off from EU staff and research activity. It says: |
| Any potential negative effects of a no-deal Brexit on UK universities will materialise in the long term rather than imminently. Isolation from EU research projects, uncertainty about work permit conditions, and the pound depreciating further against the euro could render UK universities less attractive to EU academics. Over time, this could erode the global reputations of some UK universities, especially those below the top tier. On the other hand, a weaker sterling in a no-deal scenario could attract overseas students to UK universities and somewhat boost their competitiveness. | Any potential negative effects of a no-deal Brexit on UK universities will materialise in the long term rather than imminently. Isolation from EU research projects, uncertainty about work permit conditions, and the pound depreciating further against the euro could render UK universities less attractive to EU academics. Over time, this could erode the global reputations of some UK universities, especially those below the top tier. On the other hand, a weaker sterling in a no-deal scenario could attract overseas students to UK universities and somewhat boost their competitiveness. |
| German government sources remain sceptical on whether the UK will follow up on hints at flexibility around its red lines with sufficient legal detail by tomorrow. | German government sources remain sceptical on whether the UK will follow up on hints at flexibility around its red lines with sufficient legal detail by tomorrow. |
| The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, is expected to brief heads of state with a progress report on Wednesday afternoon. | The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, is expected to brief heads of state with a progress report on Wednesday afternoon. |
| After last week’s meeting between Leo Varadkar and Boris Johnson, officials in Berlin are optimistic the British government is actively trying to reach a deal, and that it is no longer ruling out compromises it has ruled out in the past. | After last week’s meeting between Leo Varadkar and Boris Johnson, officials in Berlin are optimistic the British government is actively trying to reach a deal, and that it is no longer ruling out compromises it has ruled out in the past. |
| At the same time, there is a belief that all possible solutions to the Irish border questions have already been played through over the last three years – and that the reasons they were rejected the first time around haven’t gone away. | At the same time, there is a belief that all possible solutions to the Irish border questions have already been played through over the last three years – and that the reasons they were rejected the first time around haven’t gone away. |
| After Emmanuel Macron spoke to Boris Johnson by phone this morning, Élysée officials stressed that there must be complete clarity tonight on whether or not a Brexit withdrawal agreement is possible. An official said talks would continue today, adding: | After Emmanuel Macron spoke to Boris Johnson by phone this morning, Élysée officials stressed that there must be complete clarity tonight on whether or not a Brexit withdrawal agreement is possible. An official said talks would continue today, adding: |
| We want to be able to evaluate the situation tonight. The European council will then act on that evaluation. | We want to be able to evaluate the situation tonight. The European council will then act on that evaluation. |
| France said technical negotiations would not take place at the summit itself on Thursday and Friday. “There won’t be long nights of discussions on a text at the European council.” | France said technical negotiations would not take place at the summit itself on Thursday and Friday. “There won’t be long nights of discussions on a text at the European council.” |
| Asked about the possibility of extending article 50, the French official said now was not the moment to speculate on possible scenarios in the future, but added: | Asked about the possibility of extending article 50, the French official said now was not the moment to speculate on possible scenarios in the future, but added: |
| There would have to be a justification for any extension, there couldn’t be an abstract extension. | There would have to be a justification for any extension, there couldn’t be an abstract extension. |