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Brexit: Barnier says deal will be difficult but still possible this week - live news
Brexit: 'Big step forward' needed today for deal to be agreed at EU summit, says Dublin - live news
(about 4 hours later)
Here is longer version of what the German Europe minister Michael Roth said when he arrived at the EU general affairs council. Asked if he thought a deal was close, he replied:
More from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg
I’m not quite sure if a deal is close. But we are trying to do our utmost best to find such a good deal because a hard Brexit would be a disaster, not just for the UK but for the EU27 ... We are extremely flexible. The integrity of the single market is key. The Good Friday agreement is key for us. And I hope that our friends in London understand our clear messages.
Bit more on Macron/Johnson call - understand France is reluctant to have another delay but the President raised possibility of technical extension
Asked if he was optimistic, he said he was always an optimist.
A “technical extension” is the term being used to apply to what would happen if the UK and the EU can agree the outline of a deal before 31 October, but need more time to pass the legislation and tie down the legal detail.
Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, is attending the EU general affairs council in Luxembourg. As he arrived he said:
In practice a technical extension is just an extension, but it would be acceptable to the EU on the grounds that it had a clear purpose and there have been suggestions that some people in No 10 believe Boris Johnson could justify it to the voters on the grounds that Brexit was happening “in spirit” (my paraphrase) on 31 October, if not in practice.
The talks are ongoing. We need to give them space to proceed.
A number of cabinet ministers were seen going into No 10 on Tuesday afternoon, the Press Association is reporting. They included: the chancellor, Sajid Javid; the foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab; the international trade secretary, Liz Truss; the business secretary, Andrea Leadsom; and culture secretary, Nicky Morgan.
But detailed conversations are under way and a deal is still very possible.
And on the subject of polling, the latest ITV/Cardiff University Welsh barometer poll gives the Conservatives a significant lead over Labour in Wales. It puts the Tories on 29% (up 5 points from the same poll in July) and Labour on 25% (up 3).
The Dutch foreign affairs minister, Stef Blok, gave a relatively downbeat assessment of the prospects of a Brexit deal when he arrived for the EU general affairs council meeting in Luxembourg earlier. Asked what had to happen for there to be a deal this week, he replied:
Here are the figures.
The UK proposal contained some steps forward, but not enough to guarantee that the internal market will be protected. Of course consumers, companies in the Netherlands, have to be assured that there will not be byways through the Northern Irish border for products out of the European Union. It is up to the UK to confirm ... that the integrity of the single market will be protected.
At the 2017 general election Labour won 49% of the vote in Wales, and the Conservatives just 34%.
Dutch Foreign Minister @ministerBlok voices EU central concern with the UK proposals: That suspect goods from elsewhere in the world could get into the EU Single Market through Northern Ireland. #brexit #GAC pic.twitter.com/9LHKB54gpk
In his analysis of the figures Prof Roger Awan-Scully from Cardiff University says Brexit helps to explain the shift over the last two years. He says:
From Bloomberg
What the poll shows above all, though, are the stark divisions in Wales – as across most of Britain – on the issue of Brexit. Among 2016 Remain voters, the Conservatives are in a distant fourth place, while the Brexit Party wins literally zero percent support; among 2016 Leavers, the Conservatives win nearly half of all support (49%) and the Brexit Party the bulk of the remainder (another 29%) ...
The pound climbs toward a 3-month high after EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier's optimistic Brexit comments https://t.co/CMuxLaBOld pic.twitter.com/MreE4TFVbu
What these figures suggest is that any general election occurring soon would open the possibility of profound changes in Welsh politics. Labour have won the last 26 general elections here. You don’t manage that without having some serious staying power, so it would take a brave person to bet heavily against them doing so once more. But the tectonic plates may be shifting.
Nathalie Loiseau, the French former Europe minister in President Macron’s government who now sits as an MEP, told the Today programme that it was important to get the legal details of any new UK-EU plan for Northern Ireland properly sorted out. Asked if she could see a scenario in which the broad outline of an agreement was reached, with legal texts coming later, she replied:
The Irish taoiseach (prime minister), Leo Varadkar, is enjoying a huge rise in his personal approval ratings in Ireland following his meeting with Boris Johnson in Wirral last Thursday, which revived hopes of a Brexit deal being reached, the Irish Times is reporting. Here is an extract from Pat Leahy’s story.
An agreement can only be detailed, credible, sustainable. And we have to have clarity on every single aspect.
Mr Varadkar sees his personal rating jump by 15 points since May, ending an 18-month long period of decline. More than half of all voters (51 per cent) now say they are satisfied with Mr Varadkar’s performance as taoiseach, his best rating in a year ...
She also said any agreement “has to be able to last”. The backstop plan agreed with Theresa May took “two years of hard work and goodwill” to negotiate, she said. She went on:
In addition, there is strong approval for the government’s handling of both the economy and Brexit. More than half of all voters (54 per cent) say the government is doing a good job on handling the economy while six out of 10 voters (60 per cent) approve of the government’s handling of Brexit.
You don’t replace it in one minute. This is a very serious issue. It has consequences on lives of many people on both sides of the Channel.
On making a compromise on the backstop, however, voters are almost evenly split – a small majority among those who expressed a preference (47 per cent) suggested that the government should not compromise on the backstop to achieve a deal, even if this risks a hard border, with 42 per cent in favour of compromise.
So goodwill, yes, but to rush to a deal in any circumstance, certainly not.
By comparison, in Britain only about 20% of voters think their government is handling Brexit well. Here is a chart from YouGov.
Zac Goldsmith, the environment minister and an enthusiastic Brexiter (unlike Jeremy Hunt, who voted remain in 2016), took a different view when he was interviewed on Today this morning. He said he did not think a Brexit delay would be necessary. He said:
Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, has joined those criticising the Metropolitan police for announcing a city-wide ban on the Extinction Rebellion protests in London last night.
I don’t think an extension is necessary. If both sides wish to secure a deal, a deal can be secured. It’s a matter of political will. Where there’s a will there is a way, and that has never been more true than in the case of Brexit.
This ban is completely contrary to Britain’s long-held traditions of policing by consent, freedom of speech, and the right to protest. https://t.co/4NDBZ5pQGI
Government Minister @ZacGoldsmith insists a Brexit delay is not necessary: "Where there's a will there's a way... I don't think it serves our interests as a country to be in a permanent state of division and paralysis" #r4today https://t.co/4hS30GOiCt pic.twitter.com/Oq5Xmc3WiI
Ruth Davidson, the former Scottish Conservative leader, is to take an unpaid job as chair of ITV’s new Mental Health Advisory Group, PA Media is reporting. The body, which is being set up following the deaths of participants of the Jeremy Kyle Show and Love Island, is intended to advise on how to protect the mental wellbeing of participants and audiences on ITV shows.
Jeremy Hunt has said it will be “very difficult” to get a Brexit deal through without an extension. The former foreign secretary, who was Boris Johnson’s main rival in the Tory leadership contest in the summer, told the Today programme:
Conservative party leaflets obtained by the BBC suggest the party is preparing for a delay to Brexit, the BBC is reporting. The text of one leaflet says: “Without a strong majority government, we can’t deliver Brexit” – even though Boris Johnson is theoretically committed to delivering Brexit by 31 October, without a majority and ahead of a general election.
I think it’s going to be very difficult to get a deal, with all the legislation, through parliament by October 31 which is why I didn’t want to offer that guarantee during the leadership campaign in the summer.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, told LBC this morning that, if Boris Johnson can agree a Brexit deal with the EU, the government will have the votes to get it through the Commons. He said:
But I still hope it happens. And I still think, for the first time, if there is a deal and, frankly if we needed an extension of a few days I think people would just feel the end is in sight and that’s the important thing.
If a deal is agreed with the European Union, it will get through, in my view, the House of Commons because everybody’s desperate to finish this.
Asked whether there would be a deal by the end of the month and if it would get through parliament, Hunt said:
He also claimed that if MPs voted for the deal in principle – something that could happen on Saturday, assuming the UK and the EU do agree a deal – passing the legislation to implement it would be easy. He said:
I think one of the mistakes that we made is to think that the difficulty in getting a deal is about malevolence from the EU, when actually there is a certain bureaucratic inertia in the way the EU operates.
If the meaningful vote goes through, then the legislation will merely be the ratification in domestic law of the treaty and that, I think, is a relatively easy bill to pass if, if there is a deal.
Because it is, frankly, a nightmare to get 27, 28 countries to agree on anything. So I’ve always thought that there just won’t be a way to overcome that inertia unless Ireland decides they want a deal.
These are from Newsnight’s diplomatic editor, Mark Urban.
And if Ireland is hanging out and saying: ‘We can’t leave with what’s on the table’, then I think the rest of the EU countries will follow suit.
The chances of a Brexit deal are not helped by classic Commission vs Member State stresses on the EU27 side. After 3 years of insisting only Barnier could negotiate on behalf of all, @LeoVaradkar & @BorisJohnson pull a rabbit out of a hat 1/3
I think what’s encouraging about the last week is that the Irish seem to have changed their calculations and worked out that if they had to face Boris Johnson with a majority in parliament after a general election that might be someone who is actually harder to deal with than the Boris Johnson they have now.
The emphasis Barnier’s team place on the legal / technical work is: as they say necessary spadework; bite back against UK/IE bilateral diplomacy; going to tip No10 into an extension (he’s not popular in Brussels!) so... 2/3
Tytti Tuppurainen, Finland’s Europe minister, told reporters as she arrived at the EU general affairs council that the EU was preparing for “all possible scenarios”:
The UK approach is to try to mobilise Member States to put pressure on Barnier / Commission to speed up, hence today’s Barclay visit to Luxembourg + possibility of Johnson visit to Paris tomorrow. But an operable deal by Thursday’s summit seems highly unlikely 3/3
Hopefully we will have a deal, but we have also to prepare ourselves for a no deal, and also have to be ready to consider another extension. So all the options are open, and today we are going to hear the latest news from Michel Barnier.
Finland holds the rotating presidency of the EU, and yesterday the Finnish prime minister, Antti Rinne, said it was too late to reach an agreement on Brexit before the EU summit starting on Thursday. “I think there is no time in a practical or legal way to find an agreement before the EU council meeting.”
Asked if she agreed with her boss, Tuppurainen did not say no, but she did not back up his assessment either.
I know there have been intensive talks between the United Kingdom and our chief negotiator, Michel Barnier. Today he will update us on where we are going. We have to use every minute that we have in order to avoid the no-deal situation that would be very harmful to us all.
Asked if EU ministers would discuss extending article 50 (ie, extending Brexit) today, Tuppurainen said not “as such” and that this would be a matter for leaders to discuss at the summit. But she also stressed that the UK would have to request an extension:
Later this week, [at] the European summit, the leaders will probably assess a possible extension. But it has to be a request from the government of the United Kingdom, of course.
Michael Roth, Germany’s Europe minister, told reporters he was “not quite sure” whether a Brexit deal was close, as he arrived for the EU general affairs council meeting in Luxembourg. But he also said a no-deal Brexit would be a “disaster”.
These are from RTÉ’s Tony Connelly.
Breaking: the UK will table fresh proposals to break the Brexit deadlock this morning, @rtenews understands
2/ Two well-placed sources have confirmed that UK negotiators will bring forward a new text when they meet European Commission negotiators in Brussels this morning
3/ It follows a 90 minute meeting between Boris Johnson and DUP leader Arlene Foster, and deputy leader Nigel Dodds in Downing Street last night
4/ It's not clear yet if the proposals are a revised version of the dual customs scheme which the UK proposed following the breakthrough meeting between Leo Varadkar and Boris Johnson last week in Cheshire, or whether they are something much different
5/ The development follows a downbeat assessment by the EU's chief negotiator on Sunday over the dual customs idea, which would see NI stay in the UK's customs territory, but operate the EU's rules and procedures on tariffs
6/ EU sources have said the original NI-only backstop is a much clearer and legally watertight way to resolve the problem of avoiding a customs border on the island of Ireland.
7/ However, the UK and DUP have long rejected the original backstop as the way forward.
When Michel Barnier spoke to journalists this morning, he stressed the need for the UK to provide “legal text”. (See 8.46am.)
But British sources have been playing down the significance of the next text. Reuters have just sent out this.
Brexit talks between the United Kingdom and the European Union continued until late on Monday and will begin again on Tuesday morning but that is routine and nothing to get excited about, a British source close to the negotiations said.
“Talks took place until 11pm last night and are due to begin again this morning,” the source said.
“As part of the talks process, there is of course back and forth and new texts have been shared by both sides repeatedly – that’s what a negotiation is,” the source said. “This is routine, nothing to get excited about.”
EU ministers in Luxembourg have just started a meeting of the general affairs council, the body that prepares the groundwork for the EU summit starting on Thursday.
General Affairs Council (Article 50) on #Brexit has started. @MichelBarnier is now informing the ministers of the state of play ahead of #EUCO pic.twitter.com/RhoNHuZZPZ
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, is briefing them on the progress in the Brexit talks. Speaking to reporters as he arrived, he gave a balanced assessment, saying an agreement was “difficult” but “still possible this week”. He said:
Our team are working hard ... This work has been intense all over the weekend and yesterday because, even if the agreement will be difficult – more and more difficult, to be frank – it is still possible this week ...
Reaching an agreement is still possible. Obviously any agreement must work for everyone, the whole of the United Kingdom and the whole of the European Union.
Let me add also that it is high time to turn good intentions into a legal text.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.15am: The Commons Brexit committee takes evidence from Northern Ireland specialists.
9.30am: Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, gives evidence to the Commons Treasury committee.
10am: Officials from the Jo Cox Foundation give evidence to the Commons home affairs committee on hate crime.
After 11.30am: The Queen’s speech debate resumes in the Commons, focusing on foreign affairs.
3pm: Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, gives evidence to the Commons business committee.
3.15pm: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, gives her keynote speech at the end of the Scottish National party conference in Aberdeen.
5.10pm: Press conference at end of EU general affairs council.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although mostly I will be focusing on Brexit. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up.
You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
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