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Poland's populist Law and Justice party increases its majority Poland's populist Law and Justice party increases majority
(about 4 hours later)
Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice party has won Sunday’s parliamentary election, doing better than when it swept to power four years ago, according to nearly complete results. Poland’s ruling rightwing Law and Justice party has scored a convincing victory in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, with almost complete results indicating a parliamentary majority and another four-year term in office.
According to official results from 91% of constituencies published by the electoral committee on Monday, Law and Justice took 44.6% of the vote, ahead of the country’s biggest opposition grouping, the liberal centre-right Civic Coalition, on 26.7%, and the Left alliance on 12.3%. According to results from 99.5% of constituencies published by the electoral committee on Monday, Law and Justice took 43.8% of the vote, ahead of the country’s biggest opposition grouping, the liberal centre-right Civic Coalition, on 27.2%. The leftist alliance the Left took 12.5%, the agrarian PSL and anti-establishment Kukiz’15 8.6% and the far-right Confederation 6.8%.“We have reason to be happy”, the PiS leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, told supporters on Sunday night.The results appeared to vindicate the party’s political strategy of combining a big increase in social spending in certain areas, most notably the introduction of an expensive new child benefit programme, with nationalist and traditionalist rhetoric, and an uncompromising authoritarian political style that has exacerbated existing divisions in Polish society.They also crown a dismal four years for the mainstream Polish opposition, which was energised by large-scale demonstrations in 2016 and 2017 against PiS’s attempts to assert direct control over the country’s democratic institutions, most notably the judiciary, but which has failed to formulate a convincing alternative programme. Pressure is mounting on Grzegorz Schetyna, a former foreign minister who leads the centre-right Civic Platform, the largest party in the Civic Coalition. The government’s increases in welfare spending were made against the backdrop of a booming economy and record consumer confidence. A central issue in these elections was the flagship child benefit programme 500+, which gives families 500 zloty (£100) a month per child. Civic Platform had opposed the policy before the 2015 parliamentary elections, arguing that it was unaffordable. But the party has since said it would retain the 500+ if elected. Observers argue that this U-turn and PiS’s ability to deliver the programme may have undermined the opposition’s credibility among voters.Sunday’s PiS victory could also prove a headache for Brussels and several European capitals. In government, the party has been an uncompromising and at times exasperating EU member, as illustrated by a farcical episode in 2017 when it tried to torpedo the re-election of Donald Tusk, a former leader of Civic Platform, as president of the European council. For years, Warsaw has sparred with the European commission over PiS’s attempts to assert direct control over the Polish judiciary, with several cases referred to the European court of justice. Under PiS, Poland has emerged as an active opponent of the liberal democratic values that underpin the EU, with European diplomats admitting in private that many in Brussels had hoped the problem would be taken out of their hands by Polish voters. “There was a hope that PiS would lose, but that has not materialised,” said Piotr Buras, director of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank. “This is not just an issue for Brussels, but for several European capitals - they will have to deal with an emboldened partner.
There was elation at the party’s headquarters on Sunday night as an exit poll projected on a big screen forecast the Law and Justice victory. Supporters chanted the name of Jarosław Kaczyński, the party’s founder and leader, who has in effect run Poland from his party office since taking power four years ago with 37.6% of the vote. “The dilemma is that Poland under PiS is already a semi-authoritarian regime, and it is only likely to deteriorate further. There will be a temptation to turn a blind eye to abuses and normalise relations, but this could come at a cost to their red lines on democratic values.”
“We have reasons to be joyful. Despite the powerful front that was arraigned against us, we were able to win,” said Kaczyński. “I hope that tomorrow will bring confirmation of our success. We have four years of hard work in front of us, because Poland needs to change further. And it must change for the better.” Additional reporting by Marcin Goclowski
Since winning elections in 2015, the rightwing populists have embarked on a programme of massive social spending, winning widespread support, especially in smaller towns and the countryside.
Simultaneously, the party has been accused of attacking the judiciary, engaging in a culture war and, in recent months, using its stable of loyal media to launch a war on “LGBT ideology”, claiming the party is defending traditional Polishness.
Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s prime minister and a Kaczyński nominee, said: “Today the sun shone as it rarely does in October. And I hope tomorrow it will shine even brighter. These results give us a huge public mandate.”
Also buoyant were supporters of the Left. The result marks a return of leftwing parties to Polish parliamentary politics after a four-year absence, when a fragmented left failed to cross the parliamentary threshold.
“We are returning to the parliament!” Robert Biedroń, one of the Left’s three co-leaders, told a post-election rally. “We are going back to where the Polish left has always belonged.”
The agrarian PSL bloc and anti-system Kukiz’15 was at 8.6% while the far-right Confederation got 6.8%, based on the partial official results.
On Thursday, the European commission announced it was referring Poland to the European court of justice over its disciplinary regime for Polish judges, opening up a new front with Law and Justice, which is already embroiled in a dispute with the rest of the EU over the rule of law.
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