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Tunisia election: exit polls point to landslide win for 'Robocop' Kais Saied Tunisia election: exit polls point to landslide win for 'Robocop' Kais Saied
(about 4 hours later)
Political outsider Kais Saied has thanked the country’s young people “for turning a new page” in Tunisia after exit polls pointed to a landslide victory for the conservative academic in a presidential runoff with media magnate Nabil Karoui. A low-profile, conservative law professor has beaten a charismatic media magnate released from prison last week in Tunisia’s presidential election runoff, according to exit polls.
In a contest that reflected Tunisia’s shifting post-revolution political landscape, Saied, an independent, scooped 72.5% of the vote according to the Emrhold exit poll, and 76.9% in the Sigma one – more than 40 points ahead of Karoui. In a contest that reflected Tunisia’s shifting post-revolution political landscape, Kais Saied scooped more than 70% of the vote, according to two exit polls, more than 40 points ahead of Nabil Karoui. The official results are expected later on Monday.
Thousands of people took to the streets of the capital Tunis to celebrate Saied’s victory, honking horns and singing the national anthem. “It’s a historic day: Tunisia is reaping the fruits of the revolution,” said Boussairi Abidi, a 39-year-old mechanic. “Kais Saied is going to put an end to corruption, he will be a fair president.” Saied thanked the country’s young people “for turning a new page” and vowed to try to build “a new Tunisia”. About 90% of 18- to 25-year-olds voted for Saied, according to estimates by the Sigma polling institute, compared with 49.2% of voters over 60.
Thousands of people took to the streets of the capital Tunis to celebrate Saied’s victory, honking horns and singing the national anthem. “Kais Saied, voice of the people,” a gathered crowd chanted.
“It’s a historic day: Tunisia is reaping the fruits of the revolution,” said Boussairi Abidi, a 39-year-old mechanic. “Kais Saied is going to put an end to corruption, he will be a fair president.”
Ben Ali: Tunisian autocrat ousted in Arab spring dies in exileBen Ali: Tunisian autocrat ousted in Arab spring dies in exile
The official results are expected on Monday. Karoui told a news conference he had been denied a chance to compete fairly and would decide whether to appeal once the electoral commission had announced the official tally. Karoui told a news conference he had been denied a chance to compete fairly and would decide whether to appeal once the electoral commission had announced the official tally.
In his first reaction, Saied thanked the country’s young people and vowed to try to build “a new Tunisia”. About 90% of 18- to 25-year-olds voted for Saied, according to estimates by the Sigma polling institute, compared with 49.2% of voters over 60. Analysts said the choice of the two candidates over better-known political faces, including many associated with the country’s revolution or with the old regime of the overthrown president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, reflected widespread discontent with the country’s ailing economy – a key factor that drove Tunisians on to the streets in 2011.
“Kais Saied, voice of the people,” a gathered crowd chanted. “Long live Tunisia!” “The tremendous disappointment with the lack of economic reform was paramount on Tunisian voters’ minds,” said Safwan Masri, a professor of Middle Eastern and north African politics at Columbia University.
The runoff was contested by two political newcomers – Saied, nicknamed “Robocop,” and businessman Karoui, who was dubbed Tunisia’s “Berlusconi”. “The fact that presidential candidates such as the country’s defence minister or its prime minister didn’t do well sends a strong message that ‘we’re done with you, we’re done with the establishment and their failed promises’.”
They trounced the old guard in a first round of voting on 15 September, highlighting voter anger at a stagnant economy, joblessness and poor public services in the cradle of the Arab Spring. Some Tunisians nickname Saied, 61, “Robocop” for his stiff manner and dour presentation. They call Karoui, 56, a flamboyant tycoon who wears designer suits, “Michael Corleone”, a reference both to his suaveness and the corruption allegations that have dogged him for years.
Karoui walked free from prison on Wednesday, having spent more than a month behind bars on suspicion of money-laundering. The pair squared off in a rare television debate on Friday evening in which Saied – who is not a member of a political party and shunned mass rallies through his campaign – addressed the audience in classical Arabic while Karoui, speaking in the local dialect, propounded his campaign’s ambitious promises to help the poor.
The poll, Tunisia’s second free presidential elections since its 2011 revolt, followed the death of president Beji Caid Essebsi in July. Turnout was higher than in the first round, and estimated at around 57%. Karoui has run the private television station Nessma since 2002, burnishing his charitable reputation in past years with a popular show in which he distributes appliances to needy families.
In one polling station, voters said they were divided between “the one who will apply the law” and the one “who helps the poor”, referring to a charity television show that boosted Karoui’s popularity. Saied, in contrast, was relative unknown in decades he spent teaching constitutional law at a university in Tunis until he retired in 2018 and launched his political campaign. His relative lack of charisma may be playing to his advantage, according to analysts, who say his appeal rests on the idea that he is incorruptible and sternly civic-minded.
Karoui portrayed himself as a bulwark against political Islam, which he accused his rival of supporting. He argued for scrapping the country’s parliamentary system in favour of a decentralised democratic model and is socially conservative, declaring his support for the death penalty and against a law currently under discussion that would distribute inheritances equally between men and women. He has spoken disparagingly of homosexuality and says he would seek to limit the work of foreign NGOs in the country.
Saied, a 61-year-old constitutional law expert, whose low-cost, door-to-door campaign caught fire in the country, called for Tunisians “to make a choice today in complete freedom”. Karoui was arrested on corruption charges on the eve of campaigning earlier this year in timing that many saw as a ploy to stem his popularity but which appeared to have backfired, enshrining his status as an outsider. He remains under investigation and cannot travel abroad.
“You have created a new concept of revolution, let your conscience guide you,” he said, casting his ballot. Tunisia has brushed close to chaos in the years since its revolution, as Islamist and secularist forces fought for control of the country. Its transition appeared most risky in 2013 after several leftist leaders were assassinated, allegedly by Islamic extremists, deepening the polarisation between the country’s political factions.
Saied campaigned upon the values of the 2011 revolution, based on opposition to westernised and corrupt elites, and in favour of radical decentralisation. Yet it pulled back, largely due to the efforts of civil society groups (who were awarded the 2015 Nobel peace prize) and political elders who struck an improbable power-sharing agreement in 2016. The agreement has brought stability but also stalled reforms that might have helped to curb corruption or slim down the country’s bloated and sclerotic bureaucracy.
H A Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, tweeted: “Congratulations to Tunisia; less for whom they voted, and more for showing a continued commitment to resolving differences via peaceful transitions.” Saied was considered the favourite and had the backing of the Islamist Ennahda party, which won the largest share of parliament though fell far short of claiming a majority. Presidential power is also limited, and the significant reforms Saied advocates would require a two-thirds majority in parliament that will be difficult to build, said Masri.
Without a doubt, Kais Saied has won the Tunisian presidential elections of 2019 - and by a pretty large margin. Congratulations to Tunisia; less for whom they voted, and more for showing a continued committment to resolving differences via peaceful transitions. #TunisiaDecides pic.twitter.com/QvYeW7mfPC “He is going to be an isolated leader because he does not have a political party,” he said. “There’s a chance he could be an irrelevant president.”
For what was the third election in four weeks, some Tunisians organised car-sharing and free transport for students who had to travel far to their home towns to cast their ballots.
“I am doing it out of love for my country. I support the one who embodies hope for Tunisia,” said taxi driver Bakri who offered free rides to Saied supporters between Tunis and the coastal city of Nabeul.
While the candidates were both seen as anti-establishment figures, the contrast between them was sharp, with Saied earning his nickname for his rigid and austere manner.
A social conservative, he has defended the death penalty, criminalisation of homosexuality and a sexual assault law that punishes unmarried couples who engage in public displays of affection.
Saied taught at the Tunis faculty of judicial and political sciences for nearly two decades.
Karoui presented himself as a candidate for the poor and the appeal of the flamboyant candidate, who always appeared in designer suits, stemmed largely from his media empire and philanthropic activity.
After the 2011 uprising that toppled longtime dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the Nessma TV channel that Karoui founded turned from entertainment programming towards news, becoming one of Tunisia’s largest private broadcasters.
Karoui has dismissed the allegations against him as politically motivated.
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