Britain and E.U. Step Up Last-Ditch Brexit Talks

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/11/world/europe/brexit-talks-eu.html

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LONDON — Britain and the European Union agreed on Friday to “intensify” Brexit talks, building on fresh optimism that has kept alive the possibility of an agreement that could allow Britain to make a smooth exit from the bloc this month.

Discussions in Brussels yielded enough progress to persuade the European Union’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, to give a positive assessment to diplomats from member countries and to promise to keep on talking.

That followed a meeting on Thursday between the British prime minister, Boris Johnson, and his Irish counterpart, Leo Varadkar, that transformed the atmosphere from gloom to hope — at least for the time being.

But while those two leaders said they saw a “pathway to a deal,” diplomats remain cautious about the prospects, and time is short before a critical summit of European Union leaders over the next week.

The British had hoped to enter a new, intensive and secretive phase of negotiations known in the Brussels jargon as the tunnel. While European officials said that is not imminent, they did allow that discussions would be accelerated.

Few doubt that the talks are entering a critical phase. A European Union official said that the intensification translated in practical terms into more discussions at the technical level beginning late Friday and going through the weekend. The hope is that the negotiators can reach a breakthrough agreement to present to member states and the European Parliament on Monday, or perhaps earlier.

There are risks, however, that once the details emerge, the talks could be derailed by sniping from the European Union side, or from British supporters of Brexit, or both. It is also possible that both sides in the negotiations are accentuating the positive, not wanting to be blamed if the talks ultimately fail.

Nevertheless, both sides appear eager to resolve the protracted crisis over Brexit. Mr. Johnson has promised repeatedly that Britain will leave the European Union on Oct. 31, without an agreement if necessary.

That would seem to be impossible, since the British Parliament has passed a law designed to stop a withdrawal without a deal — a step the majority of lawmakers believe would be hugely damaging — so an agreement would provide a way out for Mr. Johnson.

For the European Union, Brexit has become a drain on resources, time and attention, just as a new set of leaders at the European Commission, the bloc’s executive body, takes over in the face of a raft of problems other than Brexit.

“The E.U. want a deal,” said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a research institute based in London. “They have a lot on their plate: a new commission; the possible resurfacing of a eurozone crisis; the migration crisis, which threatens to rear its ugly head again; the trade wars with Trump’s America.”

So far, there is little published detail on Britain’s proposal to resolve the perennial sticking point: how to avoid customs checks between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland, which will remain in the European Union.

The simple answer is for Northern Ireland to remain in the European Union’s customs union, but that has been politically unpalatable to the Democratic Unionist Party, the Northern Irish group that is helping to prop up Mr. Johnson’s government. In an interview, Mr. Johnson twice declined to comment on whether Northern Ireland would leave the customs union.

“I think it would be wrong of me to give a running commentary on the negotiations,” he said when challenged on the point. “I can certainly tell you that under no circumstances will we see anything that damages the ability of the whole of the United Kingdom to take full advantage of Brexit, and I think that’s what people would expect, and that’s what I think we can achieve.”

That remark has fueled speculation that Britain might have proposed a complicated scheme under which Northern Ireland might find itself under European Union customs rules administratively, while legally remaining part of the United Kingdom trade system.

That could preserve the principles on both sides of the table, because Mr. Johnson insists that Northern Ireland must stay part of the United Kingdom while Mr. Varadkar is determined to prevent any customs checkpoints being created on the island of Ireland. The downside is that the dual system would be complex to administer.

Britain also appears to have offered concessions over plans to ensure that the people of Northern Ireland consent to the new plan, though of the two issues, that is regarded as the easier one to resolve.

And that still leaves open the question of how these proposals will be received by the 10 Northern Ireland lawmakers whose views are influential within the prime minister’s Conservative Party.

So far the Northern Irish party has not criticized Mr. Johnson’s initiative in public, calling for a “balanced and sensible” agreement. But to get any new plan through the British Parliament, Mr. Johnson probably needs its approval.

Before that, he needs to strike a deal with Mr. Barnier, the European Union negotiator. The response of other European countries will also be crucial. Some nations, including France, are determined to protect the bloc’s economic rule book, and might object to the British plan if they think it would be likely to increase the risk of smuggling.

Asked if there was hope of a deal, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, sounded cautious. “Let’s wait for the next few hours,” he said.

Stephen Castle reported from London, and Matina Stevis-Gridneff from Brussels.