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| Ukraine conflict: Can election deal in east finally bring peace? | Ukraine conflict: Can election deal in east finally bring peace? |
| (about 20 hours later) | |
| Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has backed in principle an agreement to bring elections to the territories controlled by Russian-backed separatists in the east. | Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has backed in principle an agreement to bring elections to the territories controlled by Russian-backed separatists in the east. |
| It is hoped that the deal will eventually lead to peace in the Donbas region devastated by more than five years of fighting. | It is hoped that the deal will eventually lead to peace in the Donbas region devastated by more than five years of fighting. |
| But thousands of Ukrainian nationalists have held protests, describing the agreement as a "capitulation" to Russia. | But thousands of Ukrainian nationalists have held protests, describing the agreement as a "capitulation" to Russia. |
| The story is moving fast. Let's break it down. | The story is moving fast. Let's break it down. |
| After triumphing in Ukraine's presidential election in April, Mr Zelensky said his main goal was to bring peace. | After triumphing in Ukraine's presidential election in April, Mr Zelensky said his main goal was to bring peace. |
| On 1 October, Ukraine, Russia and the separatists agreed in principle to hold local elections in the separatist-held east and then - if the poll is seen as free - Ukraine would grant special status to the region. | On 1 October, Ukraine, Russia and the separatists agreed in principle to hold local elections in the separatist-held east and then - if the poll is seen as free - Ukraine would grant special status to the region. |
| But Ukrainian nationalists say the deal allows the elections before Russian-backed forces have pulled out, and before Kiev has control of the border with Russia. | But Ukrainian nationalists say the deal allows the elections before Russian-backed forces have pulled out, and before Kiev has control of the border with Russia. |
| They say Mr Zelensky must ditch the deal which they condemn as "capitulation". | They say Mr Zelensky must ditch the deal which they condemn as "capitulation". |
| An imminent breakthrough is considered unlikely. | An imminent breakthrough is considered unlikely. |
| President Zelensky has said he is ready to talk even to "the devil" to bring peace to Ukraine. | President Zelensky has said he is ready to talk even to "the devil" to bring peace to Ukraine. |
| The deal he has agreed, known as the "Steinmeier formula", would grant special status to the separatist-held parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, collectively known as the Donbas. | The deal he has agreed, known as the "Steinmeier formula", would grant special status to the separatist-held parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, collectively known as the Donbas. |
| The agreement aims to break the impasse over a 2015 peace deal (the Minsk agreements). | The agreement aims to break the impasse over a 2015 peace deal (the Minsk agreements). |
| Proposed in 2016 by Germany's then-foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the plan details free and fair elections in the east under Ukrainian law, verification by the OSCE international security organisation, and then self-governing status in return. | Proposed in 2016 by Germany's then-foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the plan details free and fair elections in the east under Ukrainian law, verification by the OSCE international security organisation, and then self-governing status in return. |
| Russian politicians described the signing of the deal in principle as a victory for Russian diplomacy. | Russian politicians described the signing of the deal in principle as a victory for Russian diplomacy. |
| This was Moscow's key pre-condition before a summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany - known as the Normandy format - could be held. | This was Moscow's key pre-condition before a summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany - known as the Normandy format - could be held. |
| But Ukrainian nationalists fear this could result in the legitimisation of the Russian occupation of the Donbas, with a vote before Russian-backed forces withdraw and before Kiev regains control of the 400km (249-mile) stretch of border with Russia. | But Ukrainian nationalists fear this could result in the legitimisation of the Russian occupation of the Donbas, with a vote before Russian-backed forces withdraw and before Kiev regains control of the 400km (249-mile) stretch of border with Russia. |
| They are unconvinced by Mr Zelensky's promise that such elections cannot be held "under the barrel of a gun". | They are unconvinced by Mr Zelensky's promise that such elections cannot be held "under the barrel of a gun". |
| There have been skirmishes between Ukrainian police and war veterans, who have been trying to prevent the troop pullout from two Ukrainian towns as agreed in the deal. | There have been skirmishes between Ukrainian police and war veterans, who have been trying to prevent the troop pullout from two Ukrainian towns as agreed in the deal. |
| Russia's Vladimir Putin believes Ukraine's president is "unable to guarantee the pullout" so there is little chance of a leaders' summit any time soon. | Russia's Vladimir Putin believes Ukraine's president is "unable to guarantee the pullout" so there is little chance of a leaders' summit any time soon. |
| The conflict in the east broke out in April 2014, a month after Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula. | The conflict in the east broke out in April 2014, a month after Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula. |
| Moscow denies sending its regular troops to Donbas, but admits that "Russian volunteers" are fighting there. | Moscow denies sending its regular troops to Donbas, but admits that "Russian volunteers" are fighting there. |
| At least 13,000 people have been killed and more than 1.5m people are internally displaced. | At least 13,000 people have been killed and more than 1.5m people are internally displaced. |
| President Zelensky is still riding high in opinion polls in Ukraine, six months after he thrashed incumbent Petro Poroshenko with more than 73% of the vote. | |
| Millions of Ukrainians wanted to get rid of what they saw as corrupt political elites, but they also put their faith in a 41-year-old comedian-turned-politician who offered a route to peace after more than five years of fighting. | |
| His first weeks in office proved that he was certainly trying. | His first weeks in office proved that he was certainly trying. |
| In June, Ukrainian troops and separatists withdrew a kilometre from the frontline town of Stanytsia Luhanska. | In June, Ukrainian troops and separatists withdrew a kilometre from the frontline town of Stanytsia Luhanska. |
| The following month, work began to restore the destroyed bridge in the town - a key crossing used every day by thousands of people on both sides of the line of separation. | The following month, work began to restore the destroyed bridge in the town - a key crossing used every day by thousands of people on both sides of the line of separation. |
| In September, a long-awaited delayed prisoner swap with Russia was finally completed. | In September, a long-awaited delayed prisoner swap with Russia was finally completed. |
| And then on 1 October, Ukraine, Russia and the separatists agreed the deal to bring special status to the separatist-held parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk. | And then on 1 October, Ukraine, Russia and the separatists agreed the deal to bring special status to the separatist-held parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk. |
| There have been different interpretations of the so-called Steinmeier formula by Moscow and Kiev, but Russian media have published what they said was the text of the deal for a vote in the east followed by self-governing status. | There have been different interpretations of the so-called Steinmeier formula by Moscow and Kiev, but Russian media have published what they said was the text of the deal for a vote in the east followed by self-governing status. |
| They say the plan envisages that: | They say the plan envisages that: |
| Russian politicians described the signing of the deal in principle as a victory for Russian diplomacy. | Russian politicians described the signing of the deal in principle as a victory for Russian diplomacy. |
| "It is our serious success," Senator Aleksey Pushkov said. | "It is our serious success," Senator Aleksey Pushkov said. |
| The signing of the deal was Moscow's key pre-condition for a summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany - known as the Normandy format. | The signing of the deal was Moscow's key pre-condition for a summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany - known as the Normandy format. |
| But Ukrainian nationalists say the deal amounts to a surrender to Russia. | But Ukrainian nationalists say the deal amounts to a surrender to Russia. |
| The nationalists are unconvinced by Mr Zelensky's promises to safeguard Ukraine's interests and not to cross his "red lines", set out in an urgent news briefing after the deal was signed: | The nationalists are unconvinced by Mr Zelensky's promises to safeguard Ukraine's interests and not to cross his "red lines", set out in an urgent news briefing after the deal was signed: |
| He has also demanded the return of all Ukrainian prisoners held in Russia. | He has also demanded the return of all Ukrainian prisoners held in Russia. |
| Despite his guarantees, protests have been held across Ukraine, with Mr Zelensky's opponents arguing that implementation of the deal could result in the legitimisation of the Russian occupation of the Donbas. | Despite his guarantees, protests have been held across Ukraine, with Mr Zelensky's opponents arguing that implementation of the deal could result in the legitimisation of the Russian occupation of the Donbas. |
| On 9 October, shots were fired into the air and there were skirmishes between Ukrainian police and war veterans, who tried to prevent the troop pullout from two Ukrainian towns (Zolote and Petrivske) as agreed in the deal. | On 9 October, shots were fired into the air and there were skirmishes between Ukrainian police and war veterans, who tried to prevent the troop pullout from two Ukrainian towns (Zolote and Petrivske) as agreed in the deal. |
| Former President Poroshenko is also damning of the deal, referring to it as "Putin's formula", arguing that Russian President Vladimir Putin is simply trying to interpret the deal in Moscow's favour. | Former President Poroshenko is also damning of the deal, referring to it as "Putin's formula", arguing that Russian President Vladimir Putin is simply trying to interpret the deal in Moscow's favour. |
| Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin was also dubious about the chances of free and fair elections. | Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin was also dubious about the chances of free and fair elections. |
| "Society will be demanding answers, and these answers should not be solving the issue of Donbas occupation at Ukraine's expense," he said. | "Society will be demanding answers, and these answers should not be solving the issue of Donbas occupation at Ukraine's expense," he said. |
| One former Ukrainian negotiator warned it was a "path to war, not to peace", while rock singer Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, who leads the Voice party in Ukraine, called on the president to explain the concessions he was ready to make. | One former Ukrainian negotiator warned it was a "path to war, not to peace", while rock singer Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, who leads the Voice party in Ukraine, called on the president to explain the concessions he was ready to make. |
| The BBC's Jonah Fisher in Kiev says it is hard to see how the proposed elections would be fairly contested, even if held under Ukrainian law. | The BBC's Jonah Fisher in Kiev says it is hard to see how the proposed elections would be fairly contested, even if held under Ukrainian law. |
| Most people with strongly pro-Ukrainian views left the occupied areas long ago, and Mr Zelensky's critics in Ukraine warn that such a deal with the separatists and their Russian backers could amount to a capitulation. | Most people with strongly pro-Ukrainian views left the occupied areas long ago, and Mr Zelensky's critics in Ukraine warn that such a deal with the separatists and their Russian backers could amount to a capitulation. |
| Analysts believe a breakthrough in the coming days is unlikely. Despite pressure from France and Germany, the presidents of both Russia and Ukraine have indicated there is little hope of a summit in the immediate future. | Analysts believe a breakthrough in the coming days is unlikely. Despite pressure from France and Germany, the presidents of both Russia and Ukraine have indicated there is little hope of a summit in the immediate future. |