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Brexit: Scottish court to decide if Boris Johnson can be forced to sign extension letter - live news Brexit: Scottish court to decide if Boris Johnson can be forced to sign extension letter - live news
(32 minutes later)
Mujtaba Rahman, the Brexit specialist at the Eurasia consultancy who produces regular briefing notes based on what he’s been told by insiders in London and Brussels, has issued an update on the state of play this morning. He says he thinks the chances of the UK and the EU agreeing a deal this week are now “close to zero”, and that the chances of a no-deal Brexit happening on 31 October are also “extremely small”. We’re heading for an election, he assumes.
Here’s an extract.
UK ministers admit privately there is little prospect of agreement. As one put it: “If the consent mechanism [on regulation] were the only problem, then a deal would be doable. But if we say Northern Ireland must be in the UK customs territory and the EU says it must be in the [EU] customs union, the problems are insurmountable. That’s where we are.”
Downing Street’s official line remains that the UK will leave on 31 October with or without a deal. At the same time, it insists the government “will obey” the Benn Act approved by parliament, forcing Johnson to seek an extension to UK membership if a deal has not been approved by parliament by 19 October. Ministers refuse to say how these contradictory positions will be reconciled. Some admit privately they do not know.
We think Johnson will pursue a strategy some aides describe as “being dragged, kicking and screaming” into an extension, so Leave voters know he is doing it against his will. This is why he still promises “no delay” even though he knows the prospects of a deal are remote.
He may play for time on 19 October, so the Benn Act is tested in the courts (Johnson would swiftly be taken to court if he did not comply immediately). The courts could send a letter on the government’s behalf, or order a civil servant or another minister to do so. Outright refusal to obey the law is a non-starter; it could provoke several resignations including those of Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, and Robert Buckland, the justice secretary.
So we think that, sooner or later, Johnson will send the letter required by the act, but that too could be tested in the courts. It will likely describe the proposed delay as “parliament’s extension”, not one sought by the government.
This is from my colleague Severin Carrell.This is from my colleague Severin Carrell.
Seems @DaleVince @JolyonMaugham @joannaccherry #BennAct decision won’t be published until noon, in writing. No #courtofsession hearing with Pentland today, says @JudgesScotland press officeSeems @DaleVince @JolyonMaugham @joannaccherry #BennAct decision won’t be published until noon, in writing. No #courtofsession hearing with Pentland today, says @JudgesScotland press office
The lawyer Jolyon Maugham says he does not know what time the Scottish court judgment will be issued. I had been told 10am, but that may have been duff information.The lawyer Jolyon Maugham says he does not know what time the Scottish court judgment will be issued. I had been told 10am, but that may have been duff information.
A decision of the Outer House of the Court of Session is expected today but we are not expecting a hearing. It will be issued to the parties and published in the normal way. We do not, as matters stand, know the time at which it will be issued.A decision of the Outer House of the Court of Session is expected today but we are not expecting a hearing. It will be issued to the parties and published in the normal way. We do not, as matters stand, know the time at which it will be issued.
Politicians spend a lot of time in interviews dodging questions, but mostly they are not very good at it. They could all learn by watching Jennifer Arcuri, the American businesswoman at the centre of the scandal over claims that Boris Johnson improperly helped her company with grants and trade mission access when he was mayor of London because they had a very close friendship. She has given an interview to Good Morning Britain this morning, and she managed to give a non-answer that made her look strong and assertive, not weak and evasive. This is what she said when Piers Morgan asked her if she had ever had an intimate relationship with Johnson. She said:Politicians spend a lot of time in interviews dodging questions, but mostly they are not very good at it. They could all learn by watching Jennifer Arcuri, the American businesswoman at the centre of the scandal over claims that Boris Johnson improperly helped her company with grants and trade mission access when he was mayor of London because they had a very close friendship. She has given an interview to Good Morning Britain this morning, and she managed to give a non-answer that made her look strong and assertive, not weak and evasive. This is what she said when Piers Morgan asked her if she had ever had an intimate relationship with Johnson. She said:
Because the press have made me this objectified ex-model pole dancer, I am really not going to answer that question ... I’m sorry, I am not going to be putting myself in a position for you to weaponise my answer. I’m being used as a pawn. This entire thing is a crazy charade.Because the press have made me this objectified ex-model pole dancer, I am really not going to answer that question ... I’m sorry, I am not going to be putting myself in a position for you to weaponise my answer. I’m being used as a pawn. This entire thing is a crazy charade.
‘It’s really categorically no-one’s business.’ Tech entrepreneur Jennifer Arcuri refuses to answer any questions about the intimacy of her relationship with Boris Johnson over concerns her answer will be weaponised. pic.twitter.com/fg1fYcncqq‘It’s really categorically no-one’s business.’ Tech entrepreneur Jennifer Arcuri refuses to answer any questions about the intimacy of her relationship with Boris Johnson over concerns her answer will be weaponised. pic.twitter.com/fg1fYcncqq
Arcuri also insisted that her firm had not received favours from Johnson.Arcuri also insisted that her firm had not received favours from Johnson.
‘Boris never gave me favouritism.’ US businesswoman Jennifer Arcuri says Boris Johnson never gave her preferential treatment and only knew her as an ‘extremely passionate entrepreneur of the London tech scene’. pic.twitter.com/Je4x1gWn2A‘Boris never gave me favouritism.’ US businesswoman Jennifer Arcuri says Boris Johnson never gave her preferential treatment and only knew her as an ‘extremely passionate entrepreneur of the London tech scene’. pic.twitter.com/Je4x1gWn2A
My colleague Matthew Weaver has written the whole interview up here.My colleague Matthew Weaver has written the whole interview up here.
Jennifer Arcuri refuses to rule out claims of affair with Boris JohnsonJennifer Arcuri refuses to rule out claims of affair with Boris Johnson
In normal circumstances this might be the story of the day, but the UK is only 24 days from a deadline that could pitch the country into a potentially crippling no-deal Brexit and Johnson has much more pressing things on his minds. His options might be affected by a decision in a Scottish court that could determine the extent to which he is constrained by the Benn Act. Here is the Press Association’s preview story.In normal circumstances this might be the story of the day, but the UK is only 24 days from a deadline that could pitch the country into a potentially crippling no-deal Brexit and Johnson has much more pressing things on his minds. His options might be affected by a decision in a Scottish court that could determine the extent to which he is constrained by the Benn Act. Here is the Press Association’s preview story.
A decision is expected to be made on whether the prime minister can be forced by the courts to send a letter requesting an article 50 extension.A decision is expected to be made on whether the prime minister can be forced by the courts to send a letter requesting an article 50 extension.
Documents submitted to the court of session on behalf of Boris Johnson were read out on Friday, in which he makes it clear he will not attempt to frustrate the so-called Benn Act.Documents submitted to the court of session on behalf of Boris Johnson were read out on Friday, in which he makes it clear he will not attempt to frustrate the so-called Benn Act.
However, the petitioners believe No 10 cannot be trusted to abide by the law, so have launched legal action.However, the petitioners believe No 10 cannot be trusted to abide by the law, so have launched legal action.
The legislation, passed by Westminster last month, requires the prime minister to ask the EU for a Brexit extension to January 31 if parliament does not agree to any withdrawal deal Number 10 may come back with by October 19.The legislation, passed by Westminster last month, requires the prime minister to ask the EU for a Brexit extension to January 31 if parliament does not agree to any withdrawal deal Number 10 may come back with by October 19.
Legal action - led by businessman Vince Dale, SNP MP Joanna Cherry QC and Jolyon Maugham QC - was launched at the outer house of the court.Legal action - led by businessman Vince Dale, SNP MP Joanna Cherry QC and Jolyon Maugham QC - was launched at the outer house of the court.
It seeks to create an order which would force Johnson to send the letter and prohibits him from frustrating the Act’s purpose.It seeks to create an order which would force Johnson to send the letter and prohibits him from frustrating the Act’s purpose.
This includes banning him from asking EU member states to deny the letter’s request or by sending an additional letter which contradicts it.This includes banning him from asking EU member states to deny the letter’s request or by sending an additional letter which contradicts it.
Aidan O’Neill QC, representing the campaigners behind the legal action, claimed Johnson’s previous statements go against what he has said to the court through the documents.Aidan O’Neill QC, representing the campaigners behind the legal action, claimed Johnson’s previous statements go against what he has said to the court through the documents.
He referred to promises made by the prime minister that he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than send a letter requesting an extension, and that the UK will leave on October 31 “do or die”.He referred to promises made by the prime minister that he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than send a letter requesting an extension, and that the UK will leave on October 31 “do or die”.
Judge Lord Pentland is expected to announce his decision on the case on Monday.Judge Lord Pentland is expected to announce his decision on the case on Monday.
And here is a blog from the Good Law Project, run by Maugham, explaining his case in more detail.And here is a blog from the Good Law Project, run by Maugham, explaining his case in more detail.
Here is the agenda for the day.Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Boris Johnson visits a hospital in Watford.9.30am: Boris Johnson visits a hospital in Watford.
11am: Downing Street lobby briefing.11am: Downing Street lobby briefing.
12pm: The court of session in Edinburgh is due to deliver its ruling in the legal challenge intended to ensure the PM complies with the Benn Act.12pm: The court of session in Edinburgh is due to deliver its ruling in the legal challenge intended to ensure the PM complies with the Benn Act.
2.30pm: Therese Coffey takes work and pensions questions in the Commons.2.30pm: Therese Coffey takes work and pensions questions in the Commons.
At some point Jeremy Corbyn is chairing another meeting of the opposition parties in Westminster, to discuss joint efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit. And opposition MPs may press for an emergency debate on a more to force the government to publish the full legal text of its Brexit plan.At some point Jeremy Corbyn is chairing another meeting of the opposition parties in Westminster, to discuss joint efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit. And opposition MPs may press for an emergency debate on a more to force the government to publish the full legal text of its Brexit plan.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will be focusing mostly on Brexit. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up.As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will be focusing mostly on Brexit. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up.
You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.