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Voters in Portugal, a Beacon of Stability in Europe, Head to the Polls Voters in Portugal, a Beacon of Stability in Europe, Head to the Polls
(about 7 hours later)
LISBON — The leader of the Socialist Party in Portugal, António Costa, lost an election four years ago but ended up becoming prime minister anyway after persuading two smaller left-wing parties to back him. At the time, the alliance was ridiculed as a “geringonça,” or “contraption,” that his opponents said would fall apart in no time.LISBON — The leader of the Socialist Party in Portugal, António Costa, lost an election four years ago but ended up becoming prime minister anyway after persuading two smaller left-wing parties to back him. At the time, the alliance was ridiculed as a “geringonça,” or “contraption,” that his opponents said would fall apart in no time.
Four years later, the “geringonça” label is worn as a badge of honor by Mr. Costa as evidence of his political dexterity. As Portugal prepares for another general election on Sunday, the question seems not whether Mr. Costa can win another mandate, but by what margin. Four years later, the “geringonça” label is worn as a badge of honor by Mr. Costa. He has become a rare thing in Europe — not only a Socialist head of government, but one who has overseen a robust economy and proved wrong the critics who had long caricatured the left as incapable of fiscal discipline.
Mr. Costa has become a rare thing in Europe — not only a Socialist head of government, but one that has overseen a robust economy and proved wrong critics who had long caricatured the left as incapable of fiscal discipline.
By contrast, in neighboring Spain, Pedro Sánchez, the caretaker Socialist prime minister, faces a repeat election in November after months of fruitless negotiations to get voted into office by Parliament.By contrast, in neighboring Spain, Pedro Sánchez, the caretaker Socialist prime minister, faces a repeat election in November after months of fruitless negotiations to get voted into office by Parliament.
Mr. Costa, 58, had been leading in the polls long before the voting on Sunday. Although his Socialist party is expected to fall short of a majority in Parliament, he is expected to maintain the support of some of the smaller parties that unexpectedly propelled him into office four years ago.Mr. Costa, 58, had been leading in the polls long before the voting on Sunday. Although his Socialist party is expected to fall short of a majority in Parliament, he is expected to maintain the support of some of the smaller parties that unexpectedly propelled him into office four years ago.
“Costa was somewhat lucky — Portugal had exited the bailout program, there was a boom in the tourism industry, the economy started to grow — but he also made his luck,” said Eunice Goes, a Portuguese professor of politics at the University of Richmond, Britain. “Costa was somewhat lucky — Portugal had exited the bailout program, there was a boom in the tourism industry, the economy started to grow — but he also made his luck,” said Eunice Goes, a Portuguese professor of politics at Richmond University in Britain.
Portugal now stands out as an example of stability in Europe, led by a prime minister who has shown himself to be “very pragmatic and keen to do deals with whoever will help him achieve his goals,” Ms. Goes added. In late 2015, Mr. Costa promised to put an end to years of austerity that had been demanded by international creditors in return for granting a bailout of 78 billion euros, or about $85 billion, to Portugal during the financial crisis.
In late 2015, Mr. Costa promised to put an end to years of austerity that had been demanded by international creditors in return for granting a €78 billion bailout to Portugal during the financial crisis. But since then, Mr. Costa has shown himself to be a firm believer in fiscal discipline, even squeezing investment in sectors like health care to bring Portugal close to a balanced budget.
But since then, Mr. Costa has shown himself to be a firm believer in fiscal discipline, even squeezing investment in sectors like health care to bring Portugal close to a balanced budget. The deficit has been cut from 7 percent of gross domestic product in 2014 to 0.4 percent at the end of last year. The deficit has been cut from 7 percent of gross domestic product in 2014 to 0.4 percent at the end of last year. And the Portuguese economy has outpaced most of its European partners, while unemployment has almost halved, to just under 7 percent.
The fiscal turnaround has won plaudits internationally. In 2017, Mr. Costa’s finance minister, Mário Centeno, was elected president of the Eurogroup, the body of finance ministers that shapes policy within the eurozone, and he has even been praised by Rui Rio, the leader of the center-right opposition party, the Social Democrats. Portugal now stands out as an example of stability in Europe.
Before Mr. Costa took office, “fiscal stability achieved by a Socialist government was unheard-of,” said João Gama, a lawyer and former secretary of state in the center-right government that was replaced by Mr. Costa’s coalition in 2015. The fiscal turnaround has won plaudits internationally. In 2017, Mr. Costa’s finance minister, Mário Centeno, was elected president of the Eurogroup, the body of finance ministers that shapes policy within the eurozone.
Mr. Costa’s embrace of budgetary discipline has been “the biggest blow to the right,” Mr. Gama added, depriving the opposition of their longstanding argument that left-wing politicians always mismanaged public finances.
Since 2015, the Portuguese economy has outpaced most of its European partners, while unemployment has almost halved, to just under 7 percent.
Mr. Costa’s apparently smooth run toward re-election was recently shaken by a scandal involving his former defense minister, José Alberto Azeredo Lopes, who was indicted last month for covering up the theft of grenades and other weapons from an army depot in June 2017.Mr. Costa’s apparently smooth run toward re-election was recently shaken by a scandal involving his former defense minister, José Alberto Azeredo Lopes, who was indicted last month for covering up the theft of grenades and other weapons from an army depot in June 2017.
But such a scandal pales in comparison with the fraud accusations that dogged the previous Socialist prime minister, José Sócrates, who is awaiting trial on charges of fraud and money laundering. Both Mr. Azeredo Lopes and Mr. Sócrates have denied wrongdoing.But such a scandal pales in comparison with the fraud accusations that dogged the previous Socialist prime minister, José Sócrates, who is awaiting trial on charges of fraud and money laundering. Both Mr. Azeredo Lopes and Mr. Sócrates have denied wrongdoing.
Mr. Costa is a former mayor of Lisbon, which has been transformed by an influx of overseas tourists and investors, many of whom have become residents of Portugal to benefit from tax breaks offered to foreigners.Mr. Costa is a former mayor of Lisbon, which has been transformed by an influx of overseas tourists and investors, many of whom have become residents of Portugal to benefit from tax breaks offered to foreigners.
But the revamping of ancestral buildings in Lisbon and other cities has also pushed up property prices and raised the debate over growing wealth inequality, particularly as Portugal prepares for a broader European economic slowdown, with Germany standing on the brink of recession.But the revamping of ancestral buildings in Lisbon and other cities has also pushed up property prices and raised the debate over growing wealth inequality, particularly as Portugal prepares for a broader European economic slowdown, with Germany standing on the brink of recession.
Sergio Sambento, a Lisbon cafe owner, said he anticipated that this election could soon be followed by “a bad surprise for the Portuguese economy.” Tourism and foreign investors “brought us a lot of much-needed oxygen in the past few years, but we know things can change quickly,” he added.Sergio Sambento, a Lisbon cafe owner, said he anticipated that this election could soon be followed by “a bad surprise for the Portuguese economy.” Tourism and foreign investors “brought us a lot of much-needed oxygen in the past few years, but we know things can change quickly,” he added.
This year, fuel truck drivers held major strikes that forced Mr. Costa’s administration to take emergency measures, while nurses and other health care workers have also protested about their work conditions.This year, fuel truck drivers held major strikes that forced Mr. Costa’s administration to take emergency measures, while nurses and other health care workers have also protested about their work conditions.
The labor unrest has strained relations between Mr. Costa and his left-wing partners, who have accused him of turning Portugal into a European poster child of fiscal discipline instead of investing more in public services.The labor unrest has strained relations between Mr. Costa and his left-wing partners, who have accused him of turning Portugal into a European poster child of fiscal discipline instead of investing more in public services.
Mr. Sánchez, the Spanish prime minister, praised Mr. Costa and his Portuguese model in a recent autobiography. But Mr. Sánchez has failed to replicate the formula.Mr. Sánchez, the Spanish prime minister, praised Mr. Costa and his Portuguese model in a recent autobiography. But Mr. Sánchez has failed to replicate the formula.
After winning a Spanish election last April, he feuded with Spain’s other left-wing party, plunging Spain into a new period of uncertainty. Next month, Spain will hold its fourth national election in four years in an attempt to break the deadlock. After winning a Spanish election last April, he feuded with Spain’s other left-wing party, plunging Spain into a new period of uncertainty. Next month, Spain will hold its fourth national election in four years.
The contrast could not be starker to what Mr. Costa achieved four years ago, when the center-right Social Democrats came out on top but could not form a coalition. In a remarkable turnaround, Mr. Costa then convinced the Communists and the Left Bloc to join with him.The contrast could not be starker to what Mr. Costa achieved four years ago, when the center-right Social Democrats came out on top but could not form a coalition. In a remarkable turnaround, Mr. Costa then convinced the Communists and the Left Bloc to join with him.
The alliance has not always been easy, and has shown strains. Jerónimo de Sousa, the veteran Communist leader, has denounced Mr. Costa’s deficit-cutting drive for going even “beyond the demands of the European Union.” While Mr. Costa’s victory on Sunday appears to be a foregone conclusion, he may yet find that voters prefer to keep him in check, under the watchful eye of partners in another “geringonça” alliance.
But while Mr. Costa’s victory on Sunday appears to be a foregone conclusion, he may yet find that voters prefer to keep him in check, under the watchful eye of partners in another “geringonça” alliance.
“Portuguese voters are wary of governments who yield too much power,” said Ms. Goes, the professor at Richmond University. “They are keen to see the Socialists in power, but want to keep them on their toes.”“Portuguese voters are wary of governments who yield too much power,” said Ms. Goes, the professor at Richmond University. “They are keen to see the Socialists in power, but want to keep them on their toes.”