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| Elizabeth Warren’s Big Challenge: Winning Black Voters | Elizabeth Warren’s Big Challenge: Winning Black Voters |
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| ROCK HILL, S.C. — For her most recent rally in South Carolina, Senator Elizabeth Warren chose Clinton College, a historically black institution in this racially diverse city. Her campaign handed out signs reading, “African Americans With Warren.” And in smaller print: “Black issues are American issues.” | ROCK HILL, S.C. — For her most recent rally in South Carolina, Senator Elizabeth Warren chose Clinton College, a historically black institution in this racially diverse city. Her campaign handed out signs reading, “African Americans With Warren.” And in smaller print: “Black issues are American issues.” |
| But when Ms. Warren looked out at the audience, she saw mostly white faces. The view reflected perhaps her biggest political challenge as she seeks the Democratic presidential nomination: adding black voters to her base of support. | But when Ms. Warren looked out at the audience, she saw mostly white faces. The view reflected perhaps her biggest political challenge as she seeks the Democratic presidential nomination: adding black voters to her base of support. |
| African-Americans were critical to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton winning competitive primary contests and capturing the nomination. Like those earlier candidates, Ms. Warren faces multiple rivals who may splinter the electorate this winter, and running up the vote margin in predominantly black areas could once again deliver troves of delegates needed for the nomination. | African-Americans were critical to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton winning competitive primary contests and capturing the nomination. Like those earlier candidates, Ms. Warren faces multiple rivals who may splinter the electorate this winter, and running up the vote margin in predominantly black areas could once again deliver troves of delegates needed for the nomination. |
| While Ms. Warren is rising in polls thanks to support among liberals, women, young people and college-educated whites, black voters, who are the most essential part of the traditional Democratic coalition, have yet to embrace her in large numbers. | While Ms. Warren is rising in polls thanks to support among liberals, women, young people and college-educated whites, black voters, who are the most essential part of the traditional Democratic coalition, have yet to embrace her in large numbers. |
| “I just think people don’t know her yet,” said Kim Ume, 51, who came to see Ms. Warren in Rock Hill. But Ms. Ume, like some other black admirers here, was hopeful: “All she needs to do is put herself in front of people.” | “I just think people don’t know her yet,” said Kim Ume, 51, who came to see Ms. Warren in Rock Hill. But Ms. Ume, like some other black admirers here, was hopeful: “All she needs to do is put herself in front of people.” |
| Part of Ms. Warren’s challenge is that her leading rival, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., appears to have strong support among black Democrats, which could help him in delegate-rich states with heavily black districts like the Carolinas, Texas and Virginia that hold early primaries. (In interviews with black voters in South Carolina recently, President Trump’s attacks on Mr. Biden over Ukraine did not appear to worry them.) Senators Kamala Harris and Cory Booker, the two leading black Democrats in the race, are also courting African-American voters. | Part of Ms. Warren’s challenge is that her leading rival, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., appears to have strong support among black Democrats, which could help him in delegate-rich states with heavily black districts like the Carolinas, Texas and Virginia that hold early primaries. (In interviews with black voters in South Carolina recently, President Trump’s attacks on Mr. Biden over Ukraine did not appear to worry them.) Senators Kamala Harris and Cory Booker, the two leading black Democrats in the race, are also courting African-American voters. |
| But more broadly, Ms. Warren is running an ideologically left-wing campaign and basing her appeal on policy proposals more so than longstanding relationships and endorsements. Senator Bernie Sanders ran a similar campaign in 2016 and lost black voters in landslides to Mrs. Clinton, who was better known and had key allies among black leaders, most importantly Mr. Obama. Ms. Warren has several months to build ties, of course, but many black voters measure political relationships in years, not months. | But more broadly, Ms. Warren is running an ideologically left-wing campaign and basing her appeal on policy proposals more so than longstanding relationships and endorsements. Senator Bernie Sanders ran a similar campaign in 2016 and lost black voters in landslides to Mrs. Clinton, who was better known and had key allies among black leaders, most importantly Mr. Obama. Ms. Warren has several months to build ties, of course, but many black voters measure political relationships in years, not months. |
| “I’ve heard very little about her,” Charles Rodgers, 57, said after leaving a library in downtown Columbia. He said he had not yet paid close attention to the primary race, given the size of the field. | “I’ve heard very little about her,” Charles Rodgers, 57, said after leaving a library in downtown Columbia. He said he had not yet paid close attention to the primary race, given the size of the field. |
| The clear deficit with black votes stands out in part because, on so many other fronts, Ms. Warren is excelling. She is now running closely with Mr. Biden in polls in the first two states to vote, Iowa and New Hampshire, where the electorate is overwhelmingly white. She is well positioned to navigate the rushing political waters of impeachment, having called for the House to begin an inquiry for months. And the sizable crowd in Rock Hill, which her campaign put at 1,400, was another sign of the palpable interest in her candidacy. | |
| At the same time, the largely white audience was only the latest sign that she still has a long way to go in increasing her support among black voters. Six weeks earlier, when she held a rally in Aiken, S.C., the crowd that turned out was also predominantly white. | At the same time, the largely white audience was only the latest sign that she still has a long way to go in increasing her support among black voters. Six weeks earlier, when she held a rally in Aiken, S.C., the crowd that turned out was also predominantly white. |
| Asked recently about her limited support among black voters, Ms. Warren refrained from offering a political analysis. Instead, she ticked off a number of policy issues that are important to African-Americans, and that she has plans to address, such as housing and maternal mortality. | |
| “The way I see this is that African-American women have really been the backbone of the Democratic Party for generations now,” Ms. Warren said as she spoke with reporters. “They get out there and they fight for people. And what I’m doing is showing up and trying to talk to people about why I’m in this fight.” | “The way I see this is that African-American women have really been the backbone of the Democratic Party for generations now,” Ms. Warren said as she spoke with reporters. “They get out there and they fight for people. And what I’m doing is showing up and trying to talk to people about why I’m in this fight.” |
| Six in 10 voters in South Carolina’s Democratic primary in 2016 were black, and they favored Mrs. Clinton over Mr. Sanders by 72 percentage points, according to exit polls. This time, it is Mr. Biden who is counting on black voters to propel him to a victory in South Carolina, the fourth state to hold a nominating contest in 2020. | Six in 10 voters in South Carolina’s Democratic primary in 2016 were black, and they favored Mrs. Clinton over Mr. Sanders by 72 percentage points, according to exit polls. This time, it is Mr. Biden who is counting on black voters to propel him to a victory in South Carolina, the fourth state to hold a nominating contest in 2020. |
| In a CNN poll released last week, Mr. Biden was supported by 37 percent of likely voters in South Carolina over all, followed by Ms. Warren with 16 percent. Among white voters in the state, they were neck-and-neck, at 29 percent and 28 percent, respectively. But Ms. Warren was all but invisible among black voters: Mr. Biden was supported by 45 percent, compared with just 4 percent for Ms. Warren. A Fox News poll released on Sunday and a Winthrop University poll released last week painted similar pictures of Mr. Biden far ahead of Ms. Warren among black voters in the state. | |
| A national poll released by Quinnipiac University last month offered a brighter outlook for Ms. Warren: It found her at 19 percent among black voters, an improvement of nine percentage points from a poll conducted a month earlier. | |
| Interviews with black voters at Ms. Warren’s rally in Rock Hill and elsewhere in South Carolina showed the steepness of the challenge she faces in spreading the word about her candidacy — but also the enthusiasm she generates among voters whom she has been able to reach. | Interviews with black voters at Ms. Warren’s rally in Rock Hill and elsewhere in South Carolina showed the steepness of the challenge she faces in spreading the word about her candidacy — but also the enthusiasm she generates among voters whom she has been able to reach. |
| After attending worship services at Zion Baptist Church in downtown Columbia on a recent Sunday, Ty Washington, 66, said he favored Mr. Biden, citing his experience and his time in the Obama administration. He was not drawn to Ms. Warren in the same way. | After attending worship services at Zion Baptist Church in downtown Columbia on a recent Sunday, Ty Washington, 66, said he favored Mr. Biden, citing his experience and his time in the Obama administration. He was not drawn to Ms. Warren in the same way. |
| “I like her ideas, but she doesn’t come across as strong to me,” he said. “And it’s not her being a woman, because I can deal with women rulers. It’s something about her that just does not resonate with me, because she speaks well, she talks well, but she doesn’t have that strength that I think we need in a presidential candidate.” | “I like her ideas, but she doesn’t come across as strong to me,” he said. “And it’s not her being a woman, because I can deal with women rulers. It’s something about her that just does not resonate with me, because she speaks well, she talks well, but she doesn’t have that strength that I think we need in a presidential candidate.” |
| Denise Hodges, 63, Mr. Washington’s cousin, also favored Mr. Biden. “I never followed her as close as I’ve been following him,” she said. “Because we’ve been seeing him, we’re used to him, so we’re comfortable.” | Denise Hodges, 63, Mr. Washington’s cousin, also favored Mr. Biden. “I never followed her as close as I’ve been following him,” she said. “Because we’ve been seeing him, we’re used to him, so we’re comfortable.” |
| Asked whom he liked in the 2020 race, the Rev. Israel Gist, 81, an associate minister at the church, quickly offered a name: Mr. Biden. Then he offered another. “What’s her name? Warren?” he said. “She’s coming along pretty well.” | Asked whom he liked in the 2020 race, the Rev. Israel Gist, 81, an associate minister at the church, quickly offered a name: Mr. Biden. Then he offered another. “What’s her name? Warren?” he said. “She’s coming along pretty well.” |
| But he immediately quickly flagged a concern. “I don’t think pushing ‘Medicare for all’ is a winning strategy,” he said, referring to her support of a single-payer health care system, a key difference between her and Mr. Biden. | But he immediately quickly flagged a concern. “I don’t think pushing ‘Medicare for all’ is a winning strategy,” he said, referring to her support of a single-payer health care system, a key difference between her and Mr. Biden. |
| Part of the challenge facing Ms. Warren is the warm feelings that many black voters have for Mr. Biden after he served two terms as Mr. Obama’s vice president. | Part of the challenge facing Ms. Warren is the warm feelings that many black voters have for Mr. Biden after he served two terms as Mr. Obama’s vice president. |
| “I think it’s really hard for candidates like Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, anybody, when you’re going against Joe Biden, who can drop, ‘Obama, Obama,’ and African-Americans are like, ‘Yes, yes,’” said Jazmine Curenton, 19, who came to a block party for Mr. Booker in Columbia. | “I think it’s really hard for candidates like Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, anybody, when you’re going against Joe Biden, who can drop, ‘Obama, Obama,’ and African-Americans are like, ‘Yes, yes,’” said Jazmine Curenton, 19, who came to a block party for Mr. Booker in Columbia. |
| Mr. Biden’s reputation may be particularly hard for Ms. Warren to overcome among older voters. | Mr. Biden’s reputation may be particularly hard for Ms. Warren to overcome among older voters. |
| “I think that there are a lot of younger people who not only are really open to her, but truly like her and truly like what she’s saying,” said Uchechi Kalu, 26, who has canvassed for Ms. Warren’s campaign and attended her event in Rock Hill. “And then there’s an older generation that is sticking to people who are familiar with the Democratic base.” | “I think that there are a lot of younger people who not only are really open to her, but truly like her and truly like what she’s saying,” said Uchechi Kalu, 26, who has canvassed for Ms. Warren’s campaign and attended her event in Rock Hill. “And then there’s an older generation that is sticking to people who are familiar with the Democratic base.” |
| Ms. Warren’s team is counting on her standing to improve as she becomes more familiar to black voters. | Ms. Warren’s team is counting on her standing to improve as she becomes more familiar to black voters. |
| “What we see is that folks who have an opinion, and have heard of Elizabeth Warren, tend to have a favorable opinion and like her,” Joe Rospars, the Warren campaign’s chief strategist, said in a podcast interview with David Plouffe, who managed Mr. Obama’s 2008 campaign. “What we also see is that people of color are disproportionately likely to not have heard of, and not have an opinion about, Elizabeth Warren.” | |
| Ms. Warren is making a concerted effort to build relationships with black leaders. | Ms. Warren is making a concerted effort to build relationships with black leaders. |
| “Every couple of weeks, she’ll call just out of nowhere,” said the Rev. Al Sharpton, who has yet to endorse a candidate. When Mr. Sharpton became a grandfather late last year, Ms. Warren was quick to offer congratulations. And last month, when Mr. Sharpton received an award and gave a speech at the annual Congressional Black Caucus Foundation dinner in Washington, he immediately received a text from Ms. Warren. | “Every couple of weeks, she’ll call just out of nowhere,” said the Rev. Al Sharpton, who has yet to endorse a candidate. When Mr. Sharpton became a grandfather late last year, Ms. Warren was quick to offer congratulations. And last month, when Mr. Sharpton received an award and gave a speech at the annual Congressional Black Caucus Foundation dinner in Washington, he immediately received a text from Ms. Warren. |
| “She’s the only one that does that,” he said. “Friends of mine didn’t text.” | “She’s the only one that does that,” he said. “Friends of mine didn’t text.” |
| Beyond personal overtures, Ms. Warren is leaning on what has been a defining quality of her campaign: producing policy plan after policy plan on a wide range of subjects. | Beyond personal overtures, Ms. Warren is leaning on what has been a defining quality of her campaign: producing policy plan after policy plan on a wide range of subjects. |
| Racial justice is a common thread throughout her proposals. Her housing plan would provide down payment assistance to first-time home buyers who live in formerly redlined neighborhoods. She has a plan to reduce maternal mortality among black women, who die of pregnancy-related causes at a much higher rate than white women. She has a proposal to provide grants to minority entrepreneurs, and her child care plan would raise the wages of child care workers, who are disproportionately women of color. | Racial justice is a common thread throughout her proposals. Her housing plan would provide down payment assistance to first-time home buyers who live in formerly redlined neighborhoods. She has a plan to reduce maternal mortality among black women, who die of pregnancy-related causes at a much higher rate than white women. She has a proposal to provide grants to minority entrepreneurs, and her child care plan would raise the wages of child care workers, who are disproportionately women of color. |
| Her higher education plan calls for providing at least $50 billion for historically black colleges and universities as well as minority-serving institutions, and her campaign has made a point of highlighting how her student debt cancellation plan would help narrow the black-white wealth gap in America. | Her higher education plan calls for providing at least $50 billion for historically black colleges and universities as well as minority-serving institutions, and her campaign has made a point of highlighting how her student debt cancellation plan would help narrow the black-white wealth gap in America. |
| Ms. Warren also has a powerful partner for her debt cancellation plan, which is being sponsored in the House by Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, the majority whip and the highest-ranking African-American in Congress. On Wednesday, she will join Mr. Clyburn at a town hall on student debt at his alma mater, South Carolina State University, a historically black college in Orangeburg. | Ms. Warren also has a powerful partner for her debt cancellation plan, which is being sponsored in the House by Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, the majority whip and the highest-ranking African-American in Congress. On Wednesday, she will join Mr. Clyburn at a town hall on student debt at his alma mater, South Carolina State University, a historically black college in Orangeburg. |
| “I’ve got a lot of plans,” Ms. Warren said, “and what I want to do is talk to people about all of them.” | “I’ve got a lot of plans,” Ms. Warren said, “and what I want to do is talk to people about all of them.” |