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| Brexit tactics: what is the strategy behind Boris Johnson's plan? | Brexit tactics: what is the strategy behind Boris Johnson's plan? |
| (10 days later) | |
| Why did the prime minister present his Brexit plan in Manchester? | Why did the prime minister present his Brexit plan in Manchester? |
| Wrapping up his offer to the EU in a tub-thumping party conference speech is Boris Johnson’s way of trying to avoid the grisly fate that befell Theresa May’s Brexit proposals. | Wrapping up his offer to the EU in a tub-thumping party conference speech is Boris Johnson’s way of trying to avoid the grisly fate that befell Theresa May’s Brexit proposals. |
| Each time she announced a painstakingly drafted plan, it was rubbished on both sides of the Channel before she had a chance to sell it herself. | Each time she announced a painstakingly drafted plan, it was rubbished on both sides of the Channel before she had a chance to sell it herself. |
| Johnson instead announced his proposals to an enthusiastic crowd of supporters. And he also took the precaution of squaring off the Democratic Unionist party beforehand after a series of intensive behind-the-scenes negotiations. | Johnson instead announced his proposals to an enthusiastic crowd of supporters. And he also took the precaution of squaring off the Democratic Unionist party beforehand after a series of intensive behind-the-scenes negotiations. |
| By mid-afternoon on Wednesday, it had become clear that the Spartans – the European Research Group MPs who helped to sink May’s deal – were likely to follow the DUP’s lead. | By mid-afternoon on Wednesday, it had become clear that the Spartans – the European Research Group MPs who helped to sink May’s deal – were likely to follow the DUP’s lead. |
| The domestic reception really matters, because whatever they think of the details, there is little incentive for the EU27 to engage unless they believe Johnson could secure a majority in parliament, as May failed three times to do. | The domestic reception really matters, because whatever they think of the details, there is little incentive for the EU27 to engage unless they believe Johnson could secure a majority in parliament, as May failed three times to do. |
| Is this all a charade? Does Johnson really want a deal? | Is this all a charade? Does Johnson really want a deal? |
| He does want a deal – as does his key aide Dominic Cummings, despite his reputation as a master of chaos. It is the cleanest route out of the bind the prime minister has found himself in, with the Benn act making a no-deal Brexit much more difficult and Labour refusing to support a general election. | He does want a deal – as does his key aide Dominic Cummings, despite his reputation as a master of chaos. It is the cleanest route out of the bind the prime minister has found himself in, with the Benn act making a no-deal Brexit much more difficult and Labour refusing to support a general election. |
| If he could get a deal through parliament by 19 October it would release him from the obligations of the Benn law and he could fight an election as the man who “got Brexit done” against all the odds. | If he could get a deal through parliament by 19 October it would release him from the obligations of the Benn law and he could fight an election as the man who “got Brexit done” against all the odds. |
| But the Vote Leave crew who are driving the Brexit bus in Downing Street have long had clear red lines for a deal, albeit different ones from May. | But the Vote Leave crew who are driving the Brexit bus in Downing Street have long had clear red lines for a deal, albeit different ones from May. |
| Johnson believes keeping the UK in the EU customs union indefinitely would prevent the UK from launching off into the buccaneering, free-trading future he likes to envisage. Ultimately, that was always going to have to mean customs checks of some kind, somewhere on the island of Ireland. | Johnson believes keeping the UK in the EU customs union indefinitely would prevent the UK from launching off into the buccaneering, free-trading future he likes to envisage. Ultimately, that was always going to have to mean customs checks of some kind, somewhere on the island of Ireland. |
| In return, he (and crucially the DUP) has conceded that Northern Ireland will stick with EU rules on manufacturing and farm goods after the post-Brexit transition period, implying a border in the Irish Sea. | In return, he (and crucially the DUP) has conceded that Northern Ireland will stick with EU rules on manufacturing and farm goods after the post-Brexit transition period, implying a border in the Irish Sea. |
| Inside the EU, both Ireland and Northern Ireland are part of the single market and customs union so share the same regulations and standards, allowing a soft or invisible border between the two. | Inside the EU, both Ireland and Northern Ireland are part of the single market and customs union so share the same regulations and standards, allowing a soft or invisible border between the two. |
| Britain’s exit from the EU – taking Northern Ireland with it – risks a return to a hard or policed border. The only way to avoid this post-Brexit is for regulations on both sides to remain more or less the same in key areas including food, animal welfare, medicines and product safety. | Britain’s exit from the EU – taking Northern Ireland with it – risks a return to a hard or policed border. The only way to avoid this post-Brexit is for regulations on both sides to remain more or less the same in key areas including food, animal welfare, medicines and product safety. |
| The 'backstop' in Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement was intended to address this - stating that if no future trade agreement could be reached between the EU and the UK, then rules and regulations would stay as they are. This has been rejected by Brexit supporters as a 'trap' to keep the UK in the EU's customs union, which would prevent the UK striking its own independent trade deals. | The 'backstop' in Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement was intended to address this - stating that if no future trade agreement could be reached between the EU and the UK, then rules and regulations would stay as they are. This has been rejected by Brexit supporters as a 'trap' to keep the UK in the EU's customs union, which would prevent the UK striking its own independent trade deals. |
| There are an estimated 72m road vehicle crossings a year between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and about 14% of those crossings are consignments of goods, some of which may cross the border several times before they reach a consumer. Brexit supporters say this can be managed by doing checks on goods away from the border, but critics say it will be difficult to police this without any physical infrastructure like border posts or cameras, which could raise tensions in the divided communities of Ireland. | |
| Interactive: A typical hour in the life of the Irish border | Interactive: A typical hour in the life of the Irish border |
| What if the EU27 reject his plans? | What if the EU27 reject his plans? |
| While the initial reaction from across the Channel was sceptical, as Downing Street had expected, Jean-Claude Juncker acknowledged that the UK had made concessions, and left the door open to continued talks. | While the initial reaction from across the Channel was sceptical, as Downing Street had expected, Jean-Claude Juncker acknowledged that the UK had made concessions, and left the door open to continued talks. |
| Bullish cabinet ministers have been telling anyone who will listen in Manchester that the EU27 will, in the end, “blink” but, as Johnson made clear in his letter to Juncker, time is very short. | Bullish cabinet ministers have been telling anyone who will listen in Manchester that the EU27 will, in the end, “blink” but, as Johnson made clear in his letter to Juncker, time is very short. |
| And while they hope for a deal, Johnson’s team are also sanguine about a no-deal Brexit on 31 October and insist they will go full steam ahead if talks break down. | And while they hope for a deal, Johnson’s team are also sanguine about a no-deal Brexit on 31 October and insist they will go full steam ahead if talks break down. |
| But isn’t the Benn law meant to prevent a no-deal Brexit? | But isn’t the Benn law meant to prevent a no-deal Brexit? |
| Yes, it requires the prime minister to write a letter to the EU27 requesting an extension if he has not won the approval of parliament for a deal or to leave without a deal by 19 October. | Yes, it requires the prime minister to write a letter to the EU27 requesting an extension if he has not won the approval of parliament for a deal or to leave without a deal by 19 October. |
| Downing Street appears to believe it can bypass the legislation in some way – either by persuading EU leaders to close the door on an extension or in some way not implementing it in law. | Downing Street appears to believe it can bypass the legislation in some way – either by persuading EU leaders to close the door on an extension or in some way not implementing it in law. |
| But the cross-party group of rebel MPs who drafted the legislation are convinced it is watertight – and deliberately picked a date they believe allows time to mount a legal challenge, right up to the supreme court if necessary, if Johnson tries to skirt it. | But the cross-party group of rebel MPs who drafted the legislation are convinced it is watertight – and deliberately picked a date they believe allows time to mount a legal challenge, right up to the supreme court if necessary, if Johnson tries to skirt it. |
| There would also be parliamentary efforts to force Johnson to comply. | There would also be parliamentary efforts to force Johnson to comply. |
| The nuclear option would be a vote of no confidence – but that would be extremely risky as, if Johnson loses, it opens up a 14-day window, spanning the critical 31 October date, during which he could try to reassemble a majority. Labour believes it could be difficult to dislodge him during that period. | The nuclear option would be a vote of no confidence – but that would be extremely risky as, if Johnson loses, it opens up a 14-day window, spanning the critical 31 October date, during which he could try to reassemble a majority. Labour believes it could be difficult to dislodge him during that period. |
| What if the courts ordered Johnson to delay Brexit? | What if the courts ordered Johnson to delay Brexit? |
| The PM has long said an extension would mean “extinction” for his party. But No 10 is feeling considerably less confident about winning court battles after the supreme court ruled the suspension of parliament was unlawful – so there has been a growing sense that a delay would be inevitable if a no-deal outcome was imminent. | The PM has long said an extension would mean “extinction” for his party. But No 10 is feeling considerably less confident about winning court battles after the supreme court ruled the suspension of parliament was unlawful – so there has been a growing sense that a delay would be inevitable if a no-deal outcome was imminent. |
| However, Johnson’s colleagues now believe breaking his “do or die” pledge to leave on 31 October would be less fatal than they feared because voters are increasingly seeing the PM as the man battling to “get Brexit done” in the face of resistance. | However, Johnson’s colleagues now believe breaking his “do or die” pledge to leave on 31 October would be less fatal than they feared because voters are increasingly seeing the PM as the man battling to “get Brexit done” in the face of resistance. |
| They believe Lady Hale and her spider brooch, and the furore over Johnson’s endless use of the phrase “surrender bill”, only help to cement that impression in the public’s mind. | They believe Lady Hale and her spider brooch, and the furore over Johnson’s endless use of the phrase “surrender bill”, only help to cement that impression in the public’s mind. |
| So if there is no deal are we heading for a ‘people v parliament’ general election? | So if there is no deal are we heading for a ‘people v parliament’ general election? |
| Yes and no: Johnson would certainly fight that election on a platform of getting on with Brexit in the face of resistance from “remoaners”, those Priti Patel called the “north London metropolitan liberal elite”. | Yes and no: Johnson would certainly fight that election on a platform of getting on with Brexit in the face of resistance from “remoaners”, those Priti Patel called the “north London metropolitan liberal elite”. |
| He could either go full throttle with a no-deal platform, in the hope of neutralising the Brexit party, or hold out the prospect of a deal if the electorate gave him a fresh mandate (though that did not go well for May). | He could either go full throttle with a no-deal platform, in the hope of neutralising the Brexit party, or hold out the prospect of a deal if the electorate gave him a fresh mandate (though that did not go well for May). |
| But with the public sick and tired of hearing about Brexit, the Conservatives know they also need to talk about domestic policy. And they emerge from this party conference having staked out a clear patch of populist territory – anti-establishment, pro-public services, rightwing on crime. | But with the public sick and tired of hearing about Brexit, the Conservatives know they also need to talk about domestic policy. And they emerge from this party conference having staked out a clear patch of populist territory – anti-establishment, pro-public services, rightwing on crime. |
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