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| Brexit: Boris Johnson's plan for alternative to backstop gets initial frosty reception from EU – live news | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Last night Mujtaba Rahman, a former European commission official who provides well-regarded Brexit analysis for the Eurasia consultancy, sent out a briefing revising down his assessment of the chances of the UK and the EU agreeing a deal to 10%. Previously he had put the chances at 25%. He thinks there is now an 80% chance of an election, and a 10% chance of no deal. | |
| Here is an extract from his briefing. | |
| London admits that Boris has scrapped Theresa May’s pledge that there could be no border “infrastructure” or “related checks and controls”. But government sources are adamant that its final proposals will mean “no new infrastructure anywhere”. However, they admit the UK is still pursuing minimal, non-intrusive “behind-the-border checks” using “existing processes and greater market-surveillance cooperation.” | |
| They hope the UK blueprint will be good enough to persuade EU to enter the negotiating “tunnel” in the run-up to the European Council, without further leaks that could scupper a deal. Remarkably one senior minister said: “It will be better than they [the EU] expect.” “The hope is that both sides then move in concert and we get over the line.” Johnson wants to keep the Democratic Unionist party on board and some ministers believe that could yet lead to the re-emergence of an old idea—time limit to the backstop—to pave a way for a deal. Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, has signalled possible support for the move. However, the Irish remain opposed to a time-limit, while the Irish and Brussels’ reception to the government’s plans so far has been very hostile ... | |
| In Brussels, there remain grave doubts about whether Boris is serious about a deal. Indeed, the row over the leaked plan could be seen as the start of the “blame game” that would follow a failure to reach agreement. In Johnson’s planned “people versus parliament” election, Brussels is cast in a “bad guy” role alongside MPs. | |
| This is what Patrick O’Donovan, an Irish government minister, told Newsnight last night about the UK government’s plans for an alternative to the backstop, as reported by the Telegraph. He said: | |
| The Good Friday agreement deserves a proper insurance policy, not over a period of time but indefinitely. Ireland’s position on the common market and the customs union has to be maintained, and there can be no return to any hard border. | |
| The people of Ireland, and the island of Ireland deserve a lot better than that. | |
| In an interview on Radio 4’s Today programme, James Cleverly, the Conservative party chairman, said it was time for the EU to show flexibility in the Brexit talks. He said: | |
| The way negotiations work is both parties need to be flexible and the UK, over the last 18 months or so including the proposals that the former prime minister brought forward, has been pragmatic and it has been flexible and will in the future. | |
| The UK has been flexible, but a negotiation means both parties need to be flexible. What we need to see now is the EU being flexible. | |
| If they can be pragmatic and flexible, we can get a deal done and leave with a deal on 31 October but we are going to leave on 31 October whatever [happens]. | |
| These are from Mark Devenport, the BBC’s Northern Ireland political editor. | |
| 1. DUP sources indicate they are supportive of Boris Johnson’s forthcoming proposals to the EU and have been kept informed during their development | |
| 2. DUP sources say unionists would be able to veto continued regulatory alignment with EU after 2025 assuming Assembly up & running then under cross community voting rules | |
| 3. This may please DUP but will annoy nationalists & Alliance who haven’t been consulted & have consistently earned against DUP veto | |
| 4. Given initial Irish Govt response doesn’t look like proposals will fly with Dublin or EU so we could rapidly move towards blame game | |
| 5. Bearing in mind Benn Act & prospect of election probably too many moving parts for deal in next fortnight but if Conservatives stay in government some aspects of Johnson offer would no doubt resurface in future talks | |
| Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister and deputy prime minister, has said this morning he does not think there will be a Brexit deal if the UK insists on customs checks taking place somewhere on the island of Ireland. As Sky News reports, speaking to journalists this morning, Coveney said he had not yet seen the UK plan, and wanted to wait until he had read it before delivering a verdict. But he continued: | |
| Certainly, from what we’re reading this morning, I would not be too encouraged by it. Essentially if [Boris Johnson] is proposing customs checks on the island of Ireland, then I don’t think that is going to be the basis of an agreement. But let’s wait and see the detail of that before we make a full judgment on it. | |
| Boris Johnson will wrap up the Conservative party conference in Manchester later this morning with the traditional leader’s keynote speech. This week he has sounded desperate to talk about almost anything other than Brexit, and the Tories have been meticulously preparing a domestic policy agenda intended to neutralise Labour attack lines ahead of a general election. (They have even been banging on about bus services, which must be a first for any Conservative party conference – a belated recognition that Jeremy Corbyn has correctly identified this as an issue that is very important to voters outside London.) But the speech coincides with the latest Brexit talks with the EU coming to a head, with the government expected this afternoon to publish its plan for an alternative to the backstop. | |
| As we report in our overnight story, the plan seems to involve Northern Ireland staying under EU single market regulations for agri-food and manufactured goods until at least 2025, but not in the customs union. Here is our story. | As we report in our overnight story, the plan seems to involve Northern Ireland staying under EU single market regulations for agri-food and manufactured goods until at least 2025, but not in the customs union. Here is our story. |
| PM strikes secret deal with DUP as he draws up 'final Brexit offer' | PM strikes secret deal with DUP as he draws up 'final Brexit offer' |
| The Telegraph’s Europe editor, Peter Foster, broke the story with details of what is on offer last night. No 10 has disputed some details of his report, but not the broad thrust of it. He has a Twitter thread, starting here, explaining what is on offer. | |
| EXC: Full readout of @BorisJohnson #Brexit deal that was briefed to EU capitals today - it's extraordinary - tl;dr "Two borders, for four years."Story here:https://t.co/Puj8YUZHXiFull gut, section by section, here:https://t.co/L3elB99fpa1/Thread | EXC: Full readout of @BorisJohnson #Brexit deal that was briefed to EU capitals today - it's extraordinary - tl;dr "Two borders, for four years."Story here:https://t.co/Puj8YUZHXiFull gut, section by section, here:https://t.co/L3elB99fpa1/Thread |
| How will the EU respond? We have not had a definitive answer yet, but the early briefing suggests the reaction will be chilly. These are from the BBC’s Europe editor, Katya Adler. | How will the EU respond? We have not had a definitive answer yet, but the early briefing suggests the reaction will be chilly. These are from the BBC’s Europe editor, Katya Adler. |
| EU bristling at government ‘take it or leave it’ attitude ahead of submitting proposals on how to replace the backstop. Senior diplomat:”How can a country say it’s leaving EU, ask Brussels for a deal on way out and then try to threaten the EU into compromising its principles”/1 | EU bristling at government ‘take it or leave it’ attitude ahead of submitting proposals on how to replace the backstop. Senior diplomat:”How can a country say it’s leaving EU, ask Brussels for a deal on way out and then try to threaten the EU into compromising its principles”/1 |
| EU position is that it has not seen hint of anything they’d enter negotiating tunnel for yet (idea of customs between NIreland and Ireland a huge alarm bell for EU) bc they’d have to be sure there was something concrete in front of them that COULD shape up into a deal BUT /2 | EU position is that it has not seen hint of anything they’d enter negotiating tunnel for yet (idea of customs between NIreland and Ireland a huge alarm bell for EU) bc they’d have to be sure there was something concrete in front of them that COULD shape up into a deal BUT /2 |
| EU will be careful not to rubbish Johnson’s proposals entirely (while critical they may speak of a ‘basis’ for discussion) bc Brussels needs to try to find deal - needs to be seen to try .. /3 | EU will be careful not to rubbish Johnson’s proposals entirely (while critical they may speak of a ‘basis’ for discussion) bc Brussels needs to try to find deal - needs to be seen to try .. /3 |
| Senior EU source tells me: chance of deal by mid October EU summit: noneChance of deal by end of month: doubtful /4 | Senior EU source tells me: chance of deal by mid October EU summit: noneChance of deal by end of month: doubtful /4 |
| EU diplomat: “The more you leave the backstop text, the more EU wants legal precision from UK .. exploring all eventualities in the future, ‘explore every corner’” The EU view is: there’s not enough time .. unless there’s another extension /5 | EU diplomat: “The more you leave the backstop text, the more EU wants legal precision from UK .. exploring all eventualities in the future, ‘explore every corner’” The EU view is: there’s not enough time .. unless there’s another extension /5 |
| Though EU hearts sink at the prospect of Brexit process going on and on.. /6 | Though EU hearts sink at the prospect of Brexit process going on and on.. /6 |
| Here is the agenda for the day. | Here is the agenda for the day. |
| 10am: The conference opens with a session on strengthening the union, with contributions from Julian Smith, the Northern Ireland secretary, Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary, and Alun Cairns, the Welsh secretary. | 10am: The conference opens with a session on strengthening the union, with contributions from Julian Smith, the Northern Ireland secretary, Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary, and Alun Cairns, the Welsh secretary. |
| 10.45am: A session on women in politics. | 10.45am: A session on women in politics. |
| 11.35am: Boris Johnson’s speech to the conference. | 11.35am: Boris Johnson’s speech to the conference. |
| 12pm: Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, faces Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, at PMQs. | 12pm: Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, faces Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, at PMQs. |
| As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will be focusing mostly on Brexit and Boris Johnson’s speech. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up. | As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will be focusing mostly on Brexit and Boris Johnson’s speech. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up. |
| You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. | You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. |
| If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. | If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. |
| I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. | I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. |
| If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. | If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. |