Football Is Here to Stay

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/07/opinion/sunday/nfl-football.html

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Sunday marks the opening weekend of the 100th season of the National Football League. Many can’t get enough professional football. During the 2018-19 prime-time TV schedule, three of the four top-rated shows among adults ages 18 to 49 were pro football games. Only “Game of Thrones” bested pigskin in the ratings, and that series concluded, while the N.F.L. goes on.

Still, many people presume the sport is in an irreversible tailspin. They think that mounting evidence of brain trauma from concussions, along with the sort of routine brutality that led to last month’s surprise retirement of the 29-year-old quarterback Andrew Luck, will result in football losing its mass appeal. It is also assumed that parents of young athletes will refuse to allow their children to play football at the youth and high school levels, depleting the talent pool.

But the future of football looks much brighter than that. It’s true that the game faces multiple challenges involving player safety, especially at the youth and high school levels. But recent reforms in pro, college and high school football appear to be reducing the harm caused by the sport. With a handful of additional reforms at all levels of play, none of which would threaten the fundamental character of the game, the N.F.L.’s second century could look as good as its first.

Andrew Luck’s retirement should not be taken as an omen. Generally, N.F.L. longevity is improving. Peyton Manning won the Super Bowl in 2016 at age 39; in February, Tom Brady hoisted the trophy at age 41. The 40-year-old quarterback Drew Brees is likely to be in the Super Bowl mix again this season.

Football brought Mr. Luck wealth and celebrity, then he quit while he was ahead. Good for him! Mr. Luck’s injuries were similar in severity to those suffered by the cyclist Alessandro de Marchi during the Tour de France, which often has bicycle crashes, and by the skiing star Lindsey Vonn in many incidents. Athletics cannot be made free of danger of bodily harm.

A more significant omen is that N.F.L. neurological damage is not getting worse but rather is in decline. Concussions are down. Numerous rules changes led to the N.F.L. reporting 214 concussions last season, versus 281 the season before. Over the five prior seasons, the average was 243 concussions.

The rule changes included making most helmet-to-helmet hits a penalty, restricting kickoff returns and banning hits on players who can’t see the opponent coming. The N.F.L. and its players’ union have cooperated to limit full-contact practice. Less hitting in practice is a hidden factor in concussion decline.

Last season (including the preseason) an N.F.L. player had a roughly 1 in 10 chance of sustaining a concussion. Would you accept a 1 in 10 chance of concussion in return for $2.8 million, the average N.F.L. annual salary? Maybe yes, maybe no. An adult can grant informed consent regarding that choice — in turn, audiences can enjoy the games guilt-free.

High-school injuries, of course, are more troubling than N.F.L. injuries. Football participation at the prep level went down 3 percent last season, according to data from the National Federation of State High School Associations. A few private and public schools dropped the sport. Worried about concussions, many parents don’t want their offspring to play.

Despite this, high schools, including in affluent areas, continue to experience strong interest in football tryouts. The National Federation of State High School Associations reports that participation, while dipping last season, remains above the level of a generation ago.

And safety at the high school level appears to be improving. In recent years, regulatory bodies for high-school athletics have changed practice rules to reduce contact. Texas, center of the “Friday night lights” universe, now limits twice-a-day practices and forbids them on consecutive days. Ohio, birthplace of the N.F.L., now limits contact to 10 practices each summer. As of this month, New Jersey allows just 15 minutes per week of practice contact during the regular season. Previously, contact was allowed almost every day.

Measures like these are reducing high school helmet-to-helmet hits, which is good news for teenagers and should mean tomorrow’s pros arrive in the N.F.L. with fewer neurological problems.

At the college level, there are also encouraging signs. The Ivy League has banned full-contact practice once school starts — but play remains strong, as evidenced by the 22 Ivy Leaguers on 2019 N.F.L. opening-day rosters. Tackling is a leading cause of injuries, both neurological and orthopedic. Dartmouth College no longer tackles in practice and last season finished 9-1. No tackling at practice has even become a recruiting advantage for the school.

The youth level — before high school — is where the concussion issue is most troubling. As Kathleen Bachynski, an assistant professor of public health at Muhlenberg College, explains, “The public health significance of football is almost entirely among the young, because most who play organized football are children.”

Research published in the journal JAMA Pediatrics suggests that some 78,000 concussions occur per year at the youth football level. That’s 364 traumatic brain injuries in little boys (and occasionally, little girls) for each one in a grown man earning millions of dollars. Unlike professional athletes, 10-year-olds cannot understand the risks and in almost all cases, never receive anything of financial value from football.

Young children’s necks are weaker than adults’, and their heads are large in proportion to their bodies: Both are risk factors. Myelin, which helps protect nerve fibers, appears in lower quantities in children’s brains than adults’, making brain structures more vulnerable to damage. A 2015 study by researchers at Boston University found “an association between participation in tackle football before age 12 and greater later-life cognitive impairment.”

We don’t let 10-year-olds smoke; we should not let them bash one another’s heads. For football to continue to thrive, youth tackle needs to be outlawed, by Congress or by state legislatures. Schools as well as parks and recreation departments should not issue permits for youth tackle on their fields.

Instead, children should play organized flag football. Ms. Bachynski notes, “All of football’s benefits of teamwork, exercise and excitement are available in flag, without the neurological risk.” If there were no youth tackle, millions of children would be better off; thousands of N.C.A.A. and N.F.L. players would have better cerebral health.

Another way to reform the game is to eliminate the kickoff. The kickoff return is the most dangerous down in football, because nearly all players collide at full speed. New N.F.L. rules mean that most kickoffs now result in touchbacks, which are not returned. But the time has come to discard the kickoff altogether, simply awarding the opponent possession after a score. If the pros eliminated kickoffs, colleges and high schools would follow suit.

In addition, the N.F.L. should bar three-point and four-point stances. In both stances, players begin a play with their heads low, exposed to helmet-to-helmet contact. In a two-point stance, players begin the down with their heads up. Research shows that offensive linemen, usually in a three-point stance, suffer more concussions than defensive linemen, often standing when the ball is snapped.

There is no reason football needs the three-point and four-point stances. Indeed, in recent years N.F.L. players have increasingly opted for a two-point stance, because it better suits today’s wide-open, pass-happy style of game. If the N.F.L. banned the stances, the N.C.A.A. and high schools would follow.

Does the N.F.L. face other threats to its continued flourishing? Yes, in particular the prospect of adding games to the season and the influence of gambling.

The N.F.L. is asking its union to accept a 17-game or 18-game regular season, up from 16. In addition to increasing the risk of injury, more games would weaken the tea: A core reason N.F.L. contests are so closely watched is that a short season means every final score matters, unlike with Major League Baseball, with an endless-summer 162 regular-season games, or the National Basketball Association, with 82.

As is, by Thanksgiving many teams are effectively eliminated and their fans lose interest. If the regular season expands, some fans will lose interest by Halloween.

And then there’s gambling. Last year the Supreme Court struck down a federal ban on sports betting, making it easier for states to legalize it, and many have. ESPN, the leading source of N.F.L. rights fees, just signed a deal with the casino owner Caesars Entertainment to promote sports wagering. N.F.L. franchises including the Dallas Cowboys have designated stadium lounges for fantasy sports products such as Draft Kings, which are gambling in all but name.

Fixed games have long been possible in many sports. But as lawful wagering spreads, when N.F.L. coaches make decisions that affect betting’s point spread, conspiracy will be assumed. In this sense the leading threat to the future of the N.F.L. comes from within — from the owners’ willingness to satisfy their thirst for even more riches.

But overall it seems the American obsession with the National Football League is in for the long haul. We should all be able to watch the seemingly ageless Tom Brady play for many, many more decades.

Gregg Easterbrook is the author, most recently, of “It’s Better Than It Looks: Reasons for Optimism in an Age of Fear.”

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