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Brexit: Can a no-deal still happen? | Brexit: Can a no-deal still happen? |
(1 day later) | |
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said the UK will leave the European Union (EU) on 31 October "deal or no deal". | Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said the UK will leave the European Union (EU) on 31 October "deal or no deal". |
However, Mr Johnson has now offered MPs more time to study his Brexit deal in exchange for agreeing to an early general election on 12 December. | |
But under what circumstances could a no-deal Brexit still happen at the end of this month? | |
EU leaders reject an extension | EU leaders reject an extension |
Mr Johnson sent a letter to Brussels on 19 October, requesting a three-month Brexit delay. He was required to do so by a law - known as the Benn Act - after MPs had failed to approve his revised Brexit deal before that date. | Mr Johnson sent a letter to Brussels on 19 October, requesting a three-month Brexit delay. He was required to do so by a law - known as the Benn Act - after MPs had failed to approve his revised Brexit deal before that date. |
For this extension of the 31 October deadline to go ahead, leaders of the other 27 EU countries have to agree unanimously. | For this extension of the 31 October deadline to go ahead, leaders of the other 27 EU countries have to agree unanimously. |
French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, has publicly questioned the extension - and without his support, it could not happen. | French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, has publicly questioned the extension - and without his support, it could not happen. |
EU leaders are expected to formally announce whether they approve on Friday. | |
A refusal would be the quickest route to a no-deal Brexit - because the exit deadline would stay at 31 October, leaving very little time for the government to implement its deal. | |
Extension agreed but UK fails to pass a deal | Extension agreed but UK fails to pass a deal |
If EU leaders agree to an extension, it does not take a no-deal Brexit off the table. Instead, it just pushes the possibility further into the future. | If EU leaders agree to an extension, it does not take a no-deal Brexit off the table. Instead, it just pushes the possibility further into the future. |
Regardless of the length of the extension, the prime minister would probably still try to push his deal through Parliament. | Regardless of the length of the extension, the prime minister would probably still try to push his deal through Parliament. |
However, if the government is unable to implement his deal (or another) before the new deadline, the UK would leave without a deal. | However, if the government is unable to implement his deal (or another) before the new deadline, the UK would leave without a deal. |
MPs reject alternative delay | MPs reject alternative delay |
Although the letter from Mr Johnson asks for an extension of the deadline to 31 January 2020, EU leaders could propose a different date. | Although the letter from Mr Johnson asks for an extension of the deadline to 31 January 2020, EU leaders could propose a different date. |
And according to the Benn Act, passed by Parliament in September, the prime minister would have to accept the proposed date - unless MPs voted against it within two days. | And according to the Benn Act, passed by Parliament in September, the prime minister would have to accept the proposed date - unless MPs voted against it within two days. |
They would be unlikely to do so, however, for two reasons: | They would be unlikely to do so, however, for two reasons: |
Ministers refuse to change the deadline | Ministers refuse to change the deadline |
This is the most controversial and unlikely scenario. | This is the most controversial and unlikely scenario. |
If an extension were agreed, a minister would be required to change the deadline in law using something called a statutory instrument (the power to change the law without a vote of MPs). | If an extension were agreed, a minister would be required to change the deadline in law using something called a statutory instrument (the power to change the law without a vote of MPs). |
And, theoretically, they could simply refuse to do this. | And, theoretically, they could simply refuse to do this. |
But not only would this be unlawful, it could be argued the "exit date" would be automatically changed anyway, because international law trumps domestic law. | But not only would this be unlawful, it could be argued the "exit date" would be automatically changed anyway, because international law trumps domestic law. |
Brexit explained | Brexit explained |
Brexit - British exit - refers to the UK leaving the EU. A public vote was held in June 2016 to decide whether the UK should leave or remain. | Brexit - British exit - refers to the UK leaving the EU. A public vote was held in June 2016 to decide whether the UK should leave or remain. |
More news explainers | More news explainers |