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Could a no-deal Brexit still happen on 31 October? | Could a no-deal Brexit still happen on 31 October? |
(about 16 hours later) | |
Parliament has passed a bill that aims to block the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 31 October. | |
Once it has gained royal assent, it becomes law. But it does not completely rule out a Halloween no-deal Brexit. | Once it has gained royal assent, it becomes law. But it does not completely rule out a Halloween no-deal Brexit. |
MPs vote for no-deal | |
Under the bill - introduced by Labour MP Hilary Benn - Boris Johnson might have to request a Brexit extension on 19 October, pushing the deadline back to 31 January 2020. | Under the bill - introduced by Labour MP Hilary Benn - Boris Johnson might have to request a Brexit extension on 19 October, pushing the deadline back to 31 January 2020. |
But there are two scenarios in which he would not have to do this: | But there are two scenarios in which he would not have to do this: |
In either of these scenarios, Mr Benn's law would not force any Brexit extension to be requested. | In either of these scenarios, Mr Benn's law would not force any Brexit extension to be requested. |
Could the government ignore the law? | Could the government ignore the law? |
The bill states that it is the prime minister himself who would have to request an extension directly to the president of the European Council. | The bill states that it is the prime minister himself who would have to request an extension directly to the president of the European Council. |
It even includes the exact wording of the letter. | It even includes the exact wording of the letter. |
So, theoretically, Mr Johnson could refuse to write or sign that letter. But that would almost certainly lead to court action. | So, theoretically, Mr Johnson could refuse to write or sign that letter. But that would almost certainly lead to court action. |
There have been suggestions that Mr Johnson could follow the law by sending the letter but send another letter setting out his political policy to leave on 31 October. | |
Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said at the weekend the government would "adhere to the law" but "test to the limit what it actually lawfully requires". | |
Could the government scrap the law? | Could the government scrap the law? |
With the current make-up of the House of Commons, the government would have little chance of repealing the new law. | With the current make-up of the House of Commons, the government would have little chance of repealing the new law. |
But this could change if there is a general election before 19 October. | But this could change if there is a general election before 19 October. |
If an election returned a House of Commons with a majority for Mr Johnson, he could potentially scrap the law and carry on without requesting an extension. | If an election returned a House of Commons with a majority for Mr Johnson, he could potentially scrap the law and carry on without requesting an extension. |
Could the EU refuse? | Could the EU refuse? |
Regardless of what UK law says, any extension to Brexit has to be agreed to by all the other 27 members of the EU. | |
It is possible that other European leaders are not convinced that they should grant the UK another delay. | It is possible that other European leaders are not convinced that they should grant the UK another delay. |
French President Emmanuel Macron has been seen as a potential hurdle to any further Brexit delay. | French President Emmanuel Macron has been seen as a potential hurdle to any further Brexit delay. |
Mr Johnson could also try to avoid an extension by persuading a member state to refuse his request. | Mr Johnson could also try to avoid an extension by persuading a member state to refuse his request. |
What if the EU asks for a different date? | What if the EU asks for a different date? |
Mr Benn's bill sets the length of any further extension to three months. | Mr Benn's bill sets the length of any further extension to three months. |
But if the other EU states respond with a different date, Mr Johnson would be forced to accept it unless MPs vote to reject it within two days. | But if the other EU states respond with a different date, Mr Johnson would be forced to accept it unless MPs vote to reject it within two days. |
This was a point of controversy during the passage of the bill, because some MPs and peers argued it could effectively force the UK to agree to whatever the EU asks for. | This was a point of controversy during the passage of the bill, because some MPs and peers argued it could effectively force the UK to agree to whatever the EU asks for. |
If MPs were to reject an alternative date, the UK could end up leaving without a deal. | If MPs were to reject an alternative date, the UK could end up leaving without a deal. |
Could no deal happen in the future? | Could no deal happen in the future? |
The new law tries to avoid a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, but it can't rule out a no-deal Brexit in the future. | The new law tries to avoid a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, but it can't rule out a no-deal Brexit in the future. |
There are only two ways to do that: pass and implement a withdrawal deal or cancel Brexit altogether. | There are only two ways to do that: pass and implement a withdrawal deal or cancel Brexit altogether. |